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This study deals with changes in European Union's (EU's) trade potential in Machinery (HS 84–85) and Transportation (HS86-89) products.

The study uses a Structural Gravity model, Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimation together with panel data for the years 2002–2018 and a two-step procedure that employs predicted values of bilateral trade to compare potential to actual trade.

Results for Machinery products suggest a potential to expand trade with existing Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) in the American continent, and countries of the IGAD region in Africa. In Transportation, a high trade potential with RTAs is found in the Americas, Africa and the Middle East. Policy suggestions concentrate on opportunities for enhancing trade relations through trade liberalization and agreement proliferation.

There are no studies to date, that examine “collective” measure of EU trade potential, that treats the EU as a single country. Changes in existing opportunities to expand trade, common for EU members, are of special interest for policy formulation, especially after the recent turmoil presented by the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the Greek Economic Crisis (GEC). Treating the EU as a single entity, is necessary for the formulation of an effective, common, EU trade policy. This study concentrates on the manufacturing sector to examine existing opportunities for the EU to expand trade, after the GFC and the GEC. This article deals with Machinery (HS 84 and 85) and Transportation (HS 86 through 89) products as they comprise a significant part of total EU exports, reaching 41% of total exports in 2016. Finally, this study offers a unique illustration of results through trade potential heat maps.

This study aims to investigate the factors influencing the citrus trade in Indonesia, the effects of tariff and non-tariff policies on the industry and the welfare of producers and consumers.

The research used annual series data from 1991 to 2021 and employed inferential, simulation, and descriptive analyses. The two-stage least squares (2SLS) of 19 simultaneous equations were used to estimate parameters.

The results indicate that free trade policies and restrictions have influenced the citrus industry, leading to a reduction in Indonesian citrus imports, and increased consumer and producer prices. However, eliminating import tariff policies on citrus from China and import restrictions increased producer surplus while decreasing consumer surplus, government revenue, and total welfare. Therefore, trade policies should be combined with non-trade policies such as citrus region development policies and advancing cultivation technology.

This study provides empirical evidence for the Indonesian government to formulate effective citrus trade and development policies. It emphasizes the importance of carefully considering the impact of trade policy on the citrus industry and the need to implement non-trade policies such as citrus zone development policies and advancing cultivation technology to benefit both producers and consumers.

The peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-02-2023-0148

This study aims to examine the export competitiveness of Vietnam’s apparel sector by identifying the precise product categories that create its comparative advantage.

Revealed comparative advantage (RCA) and normalized revealed comparative advantage (NRCA) form the research methodology, and the RCA/NRCA values are calculated for the 2011–2020 period.

In total, 29 out of 34 product categories at four-digit levels and 65 out of 217 subcategories at six-digit levels elicited a consistent export comparative advantage throughout the 10-year study timeframe. The study also identified 13 subcategories at six-digit levels, which indicated 10 consecutive years of relative disadvantages.

The study’s findings have far-reaching implications for economic policy, development strategies and global economic integration. By providing a nuanced understanding of a country’s export strengths in the international apparel trade, this study offers valuable guidance for informed decision-making at various levels. The findings will serve as a significant source of information for policymakers and help them formulate novel policies aiming to diversify Vietnam’s apparel product offerings and export destinations. The results will also inform the government regarding the industry’s potential and attract necessary support, enabling it to grow further. This study reveals patterns in Vietnam’s apparel trade but does not provide insights into the underlying causes of comparative advantage.

The study provides an in-depth overview of Vietnam’s comparative advantages and disadvantages at two-, four- and six-digit harmonized system levels and helps understand Vietnam’s apparel export competitiveness.

In Africa, recent data show that Nigeria is the second top remittance recipient behind Egypt, but welfare seems deteriorating. Most related reviewed literature is micro-based with surveys, giving credence to the dearth of macro-based literature whose gap this study attempted to fill. Thus, the main purpose of this study is to examine remittance flows and its welfare implications in Nigeria.

The study used quarterly data (1980Q1–2020Q4) from World Development Indicators (2020) and applied the dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) model.

Remittance flows were found to be significantly improving the welfare of Nigerians by about 0.04% for a percentage remittance increase. Financial sector development results show that while loans decrease welfare per individual significantly by 0.25% given a 1% increase in the loans accessible by the private sector, a percentage increase in broad money supply in circulation raises welfare per individual significantly by about 0.43%.

Since remittance is found to improve welfare, the study recommends that relevant stakeholders should endeavor to eliminate all form of bottlenecks (payment delays, remitting costs, transfer delays, poor policies and policy inconsistencies) inherent in remitting funds back to Nigeria. The implication of this is that if the impediments are minimized, remittances are bound to rise which will ultimately lead to improved welfare.

The existing literature revealed that there exists very limited or no macro-based study in this context, hence this novelty study.

The MENA region is very rich in terms of natural resources. At the same time, the MENA region has also been a victim of terrorism during the last few years. This study is an attempt to investigate whether there is any relationship between natural resources and terrorism in the MENA region.

We have focused on 15 resource-rich countries located in the MENA region for the period 2002–2019. We have applied appropriate econometric techniques and have also controlled for other dominant determinants of terrorism while studying the relationship between these two variables.

The results provide solid evidence in favor of the hypothesis that natural resources encourage terrorism. We find that natural resources have positively impacted terrorism. Besides, the natural resources, other factors such as per capita GDP, trade openness, political stability, domestic investment and government expenditures have negatively impacted terrorism. Moreover, the findings suggest that FDI and corruption are irrelevant in explaining terrorism while the findings regarding employment level and terrorism are unexpected. The obtained results are robust to alternative estimating methodologies.

The results have serious policy implications for the MENA region. The MENA region in general is suggested to devise appropriate policies regarding their huge natural resources so as to tackle the terrorism problem effectively. Similarly, paying favorable attention to trade liberalization, political stability, government expenditures, investment, rising income of the population in the presence of macroeconomic stability in the form of lower inflation would also help the MENA region to eradicate the problem of terrorism.

The available literature has largely ignored the role of natural resources in explaining the problem of terrorism. Therefore, this study has provided relatively new evidence regarding the determinants of terrorism.

Modern renewable energy is crucial for environmental conservation, sustainable economic growth and energy security, especially in developing East African nations that heavily use traditional biomass. Thus, this study aims to examine urbanization and modern renewable energy consumption (MREC) in East African community (EAC) while controlling for gross domestic product (GDP), population growth, foreign direct investment (FDI), industrialization and trade openness (TOP).

This study considers a balanced panel of five EAC countries from 1996 to 2019. Long-run dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) and fully modified ordinary least squares estimations were used to ascertain the relationships while the vector error-correction model was used to ascertain the causal relationship.

Results show that urbanization, FDI, industrialization and TOP positively affect MREC. Whereas population growth and GDP reduce MREC, the effect for GDP is not that significant. The study also found a bidirectional causality between urbanization, FDI, TOP and MREC in the long run.

Investing in modern renewable energy facilities should be a top priority, particularly in cities with expanding populations. The governments of the EAC should endeavor to make MREC affordable among the urban population by creating income-generating activities in the urban centers and sensitizing the urban population to the benefits of using MREC. Also, the government may come up with policies that enhance the establishment of lower prices for modern renewable energy commodities so as to increase their affordability.

MREC is a new concept in the energy consumption literature. Much of the research focuses on renewable energy consumption including the use of traditional biomass which contributes to climate change negatively. Besides, the influence of factors such as urbanization has not been given significant attention. Yet urbanization is identified as a catalyst for MREC.

India started economic reforms at a rapid pace to catch up the world economy by following the services-led-growth model during the post-liberalisation period. Over the years, the growing unemployment rate posits a re-look into the dynamics of growth model for wider work force participation. In this backdrop, the paper aims to examine the dynamics of structural changes in employment pattern in view of economic growth led by services-led growth model in India.

The study employs a non-linear autoregressive model (NARDL) to examine the effect of the growth rates in three broad economic sectors namely agriculture and allied, services and industry on work force participation representing the employment opportunities in India.

The results highlight that the rapid expansion of the service sector has not occurred with enough employment opportunities by the same rate. By contrast, the growth in the industrial sector significantly creates employment opportunities in the short and long run. These results support the industry led growth model over the services for sustainable and inclusive economic growth in the country.

The study relies on combined labour force participation rates rather than gender-specific rates. Further, the regulatory, working conditions and economic incentives may affect the gender-specific engagement of the labour force in three broad sectors.

The results offer important insight into changing patterns in employment with policy lessons. A wider workforce force participation calls for expansion of manufacturing activities through pro-industry programmes.

The study makes pioneer efforts to examine the dynamics of labour force participation with respect to the growth of three broad economic sectors of the Indian economy. The results provide new insights with policy implications for the changing employment pattern and policy response.

This study examines the effect of digitalization on poverty and income inequality in developing countries. The study answers the question of whether digitalization is a way for developing countries to get out of poverty and income inequality.

The study uses data from 17 developing countries with data from 2005 to 2021. The study employs fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS), with an augmented mean group (AMG) for robustness. Digitalization, as the variable of interest, is proxied by the digitalization index (DI), constructed using principal component analysis (PCA). The dependent variables are poverty and income inequality, which are used in different models.

The evidence indicates that digitalization decreases poverty and income inequality in developing countries. These findings are justified when we use the AMG estimator, but the strength of the coefficients and significance levels are higher in the FMOLS and DOLS estimators. The results of the control variables also show that human development (LHDI), CO2 emissions and foreign direct investment (FDI) have decreasing effects on poverty and income inequality. Thus, digitalization is a good option for developing countries to get out of poverty and income inequality to achieve sustainable development goals (1&10).

This study provides rigorous empirical evidence on the effect of digitalization on poverty and income inequality in developing countries. Unlike the previous studies on developing countries, this study used a DI to proxy digitalization. In addition, the authors use FMOLS and DOLS estimators, with an AMG estimator for robustness, to provide long-run coefficients.

The peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-08-2023-0586

In this paper we examine the validity of the J-curve hypothesis in four Southeast Asian economies (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand) over the 1980–2017 period.

We employ the linear autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) model that captures the dynamic relationships between the variables and additionally use the nonlinear ARDL model that considers the asymmetric effects of the real exchange rate changes.

The estimated models were diagnostically sound, and the variables were found to be cointegrated. However, with the exception of Malaysia, the short- and long-run relationships did not attest to the presence of the J-curve effect. The trade flows were affected asymmetrically in Malaysia and the Philippines, suggesting the appropriateness of nonlinear ARDL in these countries.

The previous research tended to examine the effects of the real exchange rate changes on the agricultural trade balance and specifically the J-curve effect (deterioration of the trade balance followed by its improvement) in the developed economies and rarely in the developing ones. In this paper, we address this omission.

This article summarizes the international scientific research output of global forest product models, infers future research trends and provides reference for quantitative analysis and mathematical modeling of Chinese forest product problems, with the aim of contributing to promoting domestic production of Chinese forest products and strengthening international trade competitiveness of forest products.

In 1999, Joseph Buongiorno, a scholar at the University of Wisconsin in the United States of America, proposed the global forest products model (GFPM), which was first applied to research in the global forestry sector. GFPM is a recursive dynamic model based on five assumptions: macroeconomics, local equilibrium, dynamic equilibrium, forest product conversion flow and trade inertia. Using a certain year from 1992 to present as the base period, it simulates and predicts changes in prices, production and import and export trade indicators of 14 forest products in 180 countries (regions) through computer programs. Its advantages lie in covering a wide range of countries and a wide variety of forest products. The data mainly include forest resource data, forest product trade data, and other economic data required by the model, sourced from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations and the World Bank, respectively.

Compared to international quantitative and modeling research in the field of forest product production and trade, China's related research is not comprehensive and in-depth, and there is not much quantitative and mathematical modeling research, resulting in a significant gap. This article summarizes the international scientific research output of global forest product models, infers future research trends, and provides reference for quantitative analysis and mathematical modeling of Chinese forest product problems, with the aim of contributing to promoting domestic production of Chinese forest products and strengthening international trade competitiveness of forest products.

On the basis of summarizing and analyzing the international scientific research output of GFPM, sorting out the current research status and progress at home and abroad, this article discusses potential research expansion directions in 10 aspects, including the types, yield and quality of domestic forest product production, international trade of forest products, and external impacts on the forestry system, in order to provide new ideas for global forest product model research in China.