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Surrogate models are extensively used to substitute real models which are expensive to evaluate in the time-dependent reliability analysis. Normally, different surrogate models have different scopes of application. However, information is often insufficient for analysts to select the most appropriate surrogate model for a specific application. Thus, the result precited by individual surrogate model tends to be suboptimal or even inaccurate. Ensemble model can effectively deal with the above concern. This work aims to study the application of ensemble model for reliability analysis of time-independent problems.

In this work, a method of reliability analysis for time-dependent problems based on ensemble learning of surrogate models is developed. The ensemble of surrogate models includes Kriging, radial basis function, and support vector machine. The prediction is approximated by the weighted average model. The ensemble learning of surrogate models is updated by finding and adding the sample points with large prediction errors throughout the entire procedure.

The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by several examples. The results show that the ensemble of surrogate models can effectively propagate the uncertainty of time-varying problems, and evaluate the reliability with high prediction accuracy and computational efficiency.

This work proposes an adaptive learning framework for the uncertainty propagation of time-dependent problems based on the ensemble of surrogate models. Compared with individual surrogate models, the ensemble model not only saves the effort of selecting an appropriate surrogate model especially when the knowledge of unknown problem is lacking, but also improves the prediction accuracy and computational efficiency.

This paper aims to present a novel dynamic reliability model that considers the interval mixed uncertainty for the air-breathing hypersonic flight vehicle (AHFV) to guarantee flight safety and structural reliability.

Initially, the force condition of the fuselage is analyzed based on the longitudinal elastic model of an AHFV. Subsequently, a new high-efficiency dynamic reliability model is presented to describe the failure probability evolution of the fuselage structure. For the random uncertainty problem with interval distribution parameters, the interval PHI2 method of time-dependent reliability is used to obtain the time-dependent reliability interval of the AHFV. Finally, the key variables that affect the failure probability accumulation are determined, which provide an important reference for ensuring structural reliability and improving the life span of AHFVs.

It is demonstrated that the proposed reliability model can obtain more accurate dynamic reliability results for the fuselage, and it is confirmed the key variables that affect the failure probability accumulation. The results also provide an important reference for the reliability analysis of hypersonic vehicles.

The novelty of this work comes from the first application of the PHI2 method (considering the interval mixed uncertainty) in the AHFV and the development of a new reliability model for the entire body of AHFVs. The proposed analysis scheme is implemented on the dynamic model of the AHFV, which provides a more accurate reference for improving the structural reliability and life span of AHFVs.

Ensuring safe operation of a urea fertilizer plant (UFP) is a vital aspect for its functioning and production. Clearly the safe operation of such systems can only be archived with proper and effective maintenance scheduling and through controlling its failures as well as repairs of the components. Also for this, the concern plant management must have the information regarding the failures that affects the system's performance most/least. The objective of this study is to analyze mathematically the factors that are responsible for the failure/degradation of the decomposition unit of UFP.

The considered system has been modeled by the aid of Markov's birth–death process with two types of failures for its components: variable (which are very similar in practical situations) and constant. The mathematical model is solved by the help of Laplace transform and supplementary variable technique.

In the present paper, the availability, reliability and mean time to failure (MTTF) are computed for the decomposition unit of the UFP. The critical components that affect the reliability and MTTF of the decomposition unit are identified through sensitivity analysis.

In this paper, a mathematical model based on the working of the decomposition unit of a UFP has been developed by considering two types of failure, namely, variable failures rates and constant failure rates (which has not been done in the literature for the decomposition unit). Conclusions in this paper are good references for the improvement of the same.

The aim of this study is to assess the opportunity for the development of hydrocarbon transportation using high-strength steel (HSS) in pipeline construction in terms of cost savings and reliability.

Several optimizations of pipeline design and operations were performed to estimate the total life-cycle cost variation associated with different grades of high-strength steel. The generalized reduced gradient (GRG) method was used in an Excel table to determine optimal total life cycle each pipeline. Variables used in this optimization with respect to each steel grade were as follows: pipeline external diameter, wall thickness, number of compression stations and installed power in each compression station. The reliability of a pipeline with optimal cost was assessed to highlight the impact of steel grade on pipeline reliability.

The study showed that the cost reduction is strongly dependent on the adopted gas pipeline configuration. The number of compression stations and external diameter are the main factors influencing the pipeline total life cycle cost, while the steel price seems to have a minor effect, the reduction of the gas pipeline total life cycle does not exceed 5% even with a 50% difference in pipe steel prices between X70 and X100 steels. On the other side, for the same external diameter, X100 steel presents better pipeline reliability against carbonic corrosion compared to X70 steel.

The main contribution of this study is to provide a decision-support tool to help pipeline constructors enhance the profitability of natural gas transmission pipelines. The optimization method used is simple to use for design engineers during a feasibility study.

The present study presents one step to fill the gap concerning the question of balancing the trade-off between cost savings and structural reliability in high-strength steel pipelines during the early stages of feasibility studies. The optimal design and operations parameters ensuring cost savings on total life cycle costs are identified via an optimization method. The impact of selected optimal parameters on the long-term pipeline service life was estimated via a structural reliability analysis.

This study conducts a comparative study on the performance of reliability assessment methods based on adaptive surrogate models to accurately assess the reliability of automobile components, which is critical to the safe operation of vehicles.

In this study, different adaptive learning strategies and surrogate models are combined to study their performance in reliability assessment of automobile components.

By comparing the reliability evaluation problems of four automobile components, the Kriging model and Polynomial Chaos-Kriging (PCK) have better robustness. Considering the trade-off between accuracy and efficiency, PCK is optimal. The Constrained Min-Max (CMM) learning function only depends on sample information, so it is suitable for most surrogate models. In the four calculation examples, the performance of the combination of CMM and PCK is relatively good. Thus, it is recommended for reliability evaluation problems of automobile components.

Although a lot of research has been conducted on adaptive surrogate-model-based reliability evaluation method, there are still relatively few studies on the comprehensive application of this method to the reliability evaluation of automobile component. In this study, different adaptive learning strategies and surrogate models are combined to study their performance in reliability assessment of automobile components. Specially, a superior surrogate-model-based reliability evaluation method combination is illustrated in this study, which is instructive for adaptive surrogate-model-based reliability analysis in the reliability evaluation problem of automobile components.

This paper aims to simulate vital corrective actions (CAs) affecting system availability through a system dynamics approach based on the results obtained by analyzing the causal relationships among failure modes and effects analysis elements.

A stock and flow diagram has been developed to simulate system behaviors during a timeframe. Some improvement scenarios regarding the most necessary CAs according to their strategic priority and the possibility of eliminating root causes of critical failure modes in a roller-transmission system have been simulated and analyzed to choose the most effective one(s) for the system availability. The proposed approach has been examined in a steel-manufacturing company.

Results indicated the most effective CAs to remove or diminish critical failure causes that led to the less reliability of the system. It illustrated the impacts of the selected CAs on eliminating or decreasing root causes of the critical failure modes, lessening the system’s failure rate and increasing the system availability more effectively.

Results allow managers and decision-makers to consider different maintenance scenarios without wasting time and more cost, choosing the most appropriate option according to system conditions.

This study innovation would be the dynamic analysis of interactions among failure modes, effects and causes over time to predict the system behavior and improve availability by choosing the most effective CAs through improvement scenario simulation via VENSIM software.

The purpose of this study is to find the reliability of the three-component three-phased mission system, which can be repaired by considering the exponential distribution for repair and failure rates in the transitions between the phases based on states with Markov approach. Also, multilevel-phased mission systems are calculated based on states for partially working states.

The reliabilities of the repairable two-level and three-level three-component three-phased mission systems based on states are calculated with the Markov approach. The structure functions are obtained for each phase of the systems, and differential equations are created by the failure and repair of each working state component. These equations are solved using Laplace method.

Reliability values of two-level and three-level three-component three-phased systems with different failure, repair, and time intervals are calculated and compared. The intermediate states that multilevel systems handle differently from two-level systems provide a better investigation of the systems. So, these repairable systems offer transparent information in complex systems like transportation and energy, ensuring appropriate timing and cost for repair operations.

This study is original in terms of calculating the reliability of the repairable phased mission system based on the states using Markov method. It is also important in calculating the reliability of the repairable multilevel phased mission system based on states and making reliability comparisons according to different repair and failure rates, equal and different time intervals.

The paper proposed a fast procedure for solving the reliability-based robust design optimization (RBRDO) by modifying the RBRDO formulation and transforming it into a series of RBRDO subproblems. Then for each subproblem, the objective function, constraint function and reliability index are approximated using Taylor series expansion, and their approximate forms depend on the deterministic design vector rather than the random vector and the uncertain estimation in the inner loop of RBRDO can be avoided. In this way, it can greatly reduce the evaluation number of performance function. Lastly, the trust region method is used to manage the above sequential RBRDO subproblems for convergence.

As is known, RBRDO is nested optimization, where the outer loop updates the design vector and the inner loop estimate the uncertainties. When solving the RBRDO, a large evaluation number of performance functions are needed. Aiming at this issue, the paper proposed a fast integrated procedure for solving the RBRDO by reducing the evaluation number for the performance functions. First, it transforms the original RBRDO problem into a series of RBRDO subproblems. In each subproblem, the objective function, constraint function and reliability index caused are approximated using simple explicit functions that solely depend on the deterministic design vector rather than the random vector. In this way, the need for extensive sampling simulation in the inner loop is greatly reduced. As a result, the evaluation number for performance functions is significantly reduced, leading to a substantial reduction in computation cost. The trust region method is then employed to handle the sequential RBRDO subproblems, ensuring convergence to the optimal solutions. Finally, the engineering test and the application are presented to illustrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed methods.

The paper proposes a fast procedure of solving the RBRDO can greatly reduce the evaluation number of performance function within the RBRDO and the computation cost can be saved greatly, which makes it suitable for engineering applications.

The standard deviation of the original objective function of the RBRDO is replaced by the mean and the reliability index of the original objective function, which are further approximated by using Taylor series expansion and their approximate forms depend on the deterministic design vector rather than the random vector. Moreover, the constraint functions are also approximated by using Taylor series expansion. In this way, the uncertainty estimation of the performance functions (i.e. the mean of the objective function, the constraint functions) and the reliability index of the objective function are avoided within the inner loop of the RBRDO.

This study aims to empirically explore several factors that encourage muzakki (zakat payers) to pay their zakat through institutions by elaborating on their extrinsic and intrinsic motivations as the composite factors regarding the attitude and intention improvement of muzakki. This study specifically studies zakat payment via digital means and categorizes the muzakki groups into two (urban and suburban) to be considered in the results.

Overall, this study gathers the data from 298 muzakki using a partial least squares technique the multigroup analysis to compare the analysis.

This study found that different sociodemographic aspects will result in varied performances of motivation in using technology between the two groups. Furthermore, positive preference aspects, such as muzakki’s attitude, can be a catalyst in improving their motivation to pay zakat through institutions.

The findings of this study can be used as a foundation to improve the technology-based services that will be more accessible and reachable. Provision of technical follow-ups regarding the utilization of technology, including community-based digital platform socializations, availability of online customer service that will respond to muzakki’s needs and synergy between stakeholders, are the primary obligations that a zakat institution must fulfill.

As far as the researchers are concerned, the studies focusing on the motivational factors and attitude of muzakki as an intervention in paying zakat via institutions are limited in numbers, especially studies on digital payment. In this study, however, classifying the groups into two will help gain a deeper understanding of this topic.

In order to solve the problems faced by First Order Reliability Method (FORM) and First Order Saddlepoint Approximation (FOSA) in structural reliability optimization, this paper aims to propose a new Reliability-based Design Optimization (RBDO) strategy for offshore engineering structures based on Original Probabilistic Model (OPM) decoupling strategy. The application of this innovative technique to other maritime structures has the potential to substantially improve their design process by optimizing cost and enhancing structural reliability.

In the strategy proposed by this paper, sequential optimization and reliability assessment method and surrogate model are used to improve the efficiency for solving RBDO. The strategy is applied to the analysis of two marine engineering structure cases of ship cargo hold structure and frame ring of underwater skirt pile gripper. The effectiveness of the method is proved by comparing the original design and the optimized results.

In this paper, the proposed new RBDO strategy is used to optimize the design of the ship cargo hold structure and the frame ring of the underwater skirt pile gripper. According to the results obtained, compared with the original design, the structure of optimization design has better reliability and stability, and reduces the risk of failure. This optimization can also better balance the relationship between performance and cost. Therefore, it is recommended for related RBDO problems in the field of marine engineering.

In view of the limitations of FORM and FOSA that may produce multiple MPPs for a single performance function, the new RBDO strategy proposed in this study provides valuable insights and robust methods for the optimization design of offshore engineering structures. It emphasizes the importance of combining advanced MPP search technology and integrating SORA and surrogate models to achieve more economical and reliable design.