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This paper examines the interaction between monetary policy and the macroeconomy using a macro-finance term structure model of Joslin, Priebsch, and Singleton (2012), in which macroeconomic risks are not assumed to be spanned by information about the shape of the yield curve. For model estimation, we apply the Kalman filter to a large number of macroeconomic time series data grouped into output, inflation, and market stress categories and extract three common factors. For the factors determining the shape of the yield curve, we use the call rate, the spread between 10-year government bond yield and the call rate, and a combination of the call rate, 2- and 10-year government bond yields as proxies for the level, slope, and curvature factors. We interpret the call rate as a proxy for both the short rate and the instrument of monetary policy. Empirical results show that the macroeconomic factors have a significant impact on the risk premium associated with monetary policy shocks. Furthermore, we find that monetary policy shocks increase the term premium, which in turn affects the factors determining the yield curve, and such effects on the shape of the yield curve feeds back into the macroeconomic factors. Taken together, empirical findings in this paper can be interpreted as evidence supporting the term premium channel (Ferman, 2011) of monetary policy transmission mechanism.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the performance of the arbitrage pricing theory (APT) in the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) on a monthly basis, for the period January 2001 to September 2005.

This study examines six pre‐specified macroeconomic variables which are: the term structure of interest rate, unanticipated inflation, risk premium, exchange rate and money supply. All these are the same as those used by Chen, Roll and Roll for the US market. In this study, the authors develop one more variable namely unemployment rate, which has a relation with the stock return.

Using the OLS technique, the authors observed that there are some differences among the market portfolios. Before starting to comment on the result of OLS, the serial correlation problem was discussed by using Durbin‐Watson statistics. In this study, the critical values were ranged from between 1.33 and 1.81 (T=57, K=6). Our test results confirmed that in ten out of the 13 there were no serial correlations. Our results show that there are big differences among market portfolios against macroeconomic variables through the variation of R². In the remaining portfolios; there was no evidence to suggest.

In this paper, the authors face a problem that was no corporate bond in Turkey's market.

This analysis appears to be the first empirical test of APT using the CAPM formula for finding the risk premium point for ISE.

The purpose of this paper is to study the correlation structure of the credit spreads.

The minimal spanning tree is used to find the risk center node and the basic correlation structure of the credit spreads. The dynamic copula and pair copula models are applied to capture the dynamic and non-linear correlation structure.

The authors take the enterprise bond with trading data from January 2013 to December 2013 as the research sample. The empirical study of minimum spanning tree shows that the credit risk of corporate bonds forms a network structure with a center node. Meanwhile, the correlation between credit spreads shows dynamic characteristics. Under the framework of dynamic copula, the lower tail dependence is less than the upper tail dependence, thus, in economic boom period, the dynamic correlation is more significant than in recession period. The authors also find that the centrality of credit risk network is not significant according to the pair copula and Granger causality test. The empirical study shows that the goodness-of-fit of D vine is superior to Canonical vine, and the Granger causality test additionally proves that the center node has influence on few other nodes in the risk network, thus the center node captured by the minimum spanning tree is a weak center node, and this characteristic of credit risk network indicates that the risk network of credit spreads is generated mostly by the external shocks rather than the internal risk contagion.

This paper provides new ideas for investors and researchers to analyze the credit risk correlation or contagion.

The purpose of this paper is to explore whether share ownership structure plays a role in determining the ex-day pricing of dividends. If share ownership structure, specifically the proportion of the firm’s stock held by individuals vs institutions, has an effect on the ex-dividend day stock price behavior, the ex-day premium is expected to be different for firms with different ownership structures.

To investigate whether the ex-day pricing of dividends is affected by the proportion of the firm’s stock held by individuals vs institutions, the author look into the ex-day premium. The ex-day premium is calculated by dividing the difference between the closing price on the cum-dividend day and the closing price on the ex-dividend day by the amount of the dividend.

Consistent with both the tax-based theory and the dynamic trading clientele theory, the author find that the ex-day premium decreases with the level of individual ownership. Consistent with the short-term trading theory, the author also find that the ex-day premium increases with the degree of investor heterogeneity, defined as the product of the proportion of the firm’s stock held by individual investors and the proportion held by institutional investors.

The author believe that this study contributes to the literature by providing useful evidence that share ownership structure affects the ex-day pricing of dividends, and thus this study will be of interest to the readers of managerial finance.

Long-term interest rates of small open economies (SOE) correlate strongly with the USA long-term rate. Can central banks in those countries decouple from the United States? An estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model for the UK (vis-á-vis the USA) establishes three structural empirical results: (1) Comovement arises due to nominal fluctuations, not through real rates or term premia; (2) the cause of comovement is the central bank of the SOE accommodating foreign inflation trends, rather than systematically curbing them; and (3) SOE may find themselves much more affected by changes in USA inflation trends than the United States itself. All three results are shown to be intuitive and backed by off-model evidence.

The authors present a model that incorporates stochastic interest rates to value equity‐linked life insurance contracts. The model generalizes some previous pricing results of Arne and Persson [1994] that are based on deterministic interest rates. The article also proposes and compares a design for a new equity‐linked product with the periodical premium contract of Brennan and Schwartz [1976]. The advantages of the proposed prod‐uct are its simplicity in pricing and its ease of hedging, by using either by long positions in the linked mutual fund or by European call options on the same fund.

Recent U.S. Treasury yields have been constrained to some extent by the zero lower bound (ZLB) on nominal interest rates. Therefore, we compare the performance of a standard affine Gaussian dynamic term structure model (DTSM), which ignores the ZLB, to a shadow-rate DTSM, which respects the ZLB. Near the ZLB, we find notable declines in the forecast accuracy of the standard model, while the shadow-rate model forecasts well. However, 10-year yield term premiums are broadly similar across the two models. Finally, in applying the shadow-rate model, we find no gain from estimating a slightly positive lower bound on U.S. yields.

I survey applications of Markov switching models to the asset pricing and portfolio choice literatures. In particular, I discuss the potential that Markov switching models have to fit financial time series and at the same time provide powerful tools to test hypotheses formulated in the light of financial theories, and to generate positive economic value, as measured by risk-adjusted performances, in dynamic asset allocation applications. The chapter also reviews the role of Markov switching dynamics in modern asset pricing models in which the no-arbitrage principle is used to characterize the properties of the fundamental pricing measure in the presence of regimes.

Forward rates in the money market are systematically higher than realised spot rates, reflecting an unobservable term premium. This paper uses a Kalman filter specification to produce time‐varying estimates of the term premia in New Zealand and Australia. Three time series specifications are used to examine the properties of the premia, such as the average size, volatility, and the degree of mean reversion. Compared to the constant term premia estimates, the time‐varying estimates explain significantly more of the difference between forward and spot rates. The results suggest that the premium in New Zealand is slowly mean‐reverting, while the Australian premium reverts quickly to the mean. It is not clear whether the method of monetary policy implementation affects the term premium, although in New Zealand the premium has been smaller and less variable since the introduction of the Official Cash Rate in March 1999. A related finding is that the size of the term premium is correlated with the volatility of short‐term rates.

From the early 1980s until the late 1990s the term structure of interest rates in Chile was usually downward sloping, particularly for long maturities. We postulate that the explanation is behind liquidity premium of the term structure of interest rates. Based upon a parsimonious theoretical model, we show that the sign of liquidity premium depends on both expected return and risk.

For our sample period 1983–1999, investors were willing to hold long-term assets even though their return was relatively lower. This appears to be a consequence of indexation, which reduced risk of long-term bonds as their return was linked to past inflation.