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The literature on economic forecasting, is showing an increase in criticism, of the inaccuracy of forecasts, with major implications for economic, and fiscal policymaking. Forecasts are subject to the systemic uncertainty of human systems, considerable event-driven uncertainty, and show biases towards optimistic growth paths. The purpose of this study is to consider approaches to improve economic foresight.

This study describes the practice of economic foresight as evolving in two separate, non-overlapping branches, short-term economic forecasting, and long-term scenario analysis of development, the latter found in studies of climate change and sustainability. The unique case of Ireland is considered, a country that has experienced both steep growth and deep troughs, with uncertainty that has confounded forecasting. The challenges facing forecasts are discussed, with brief review of the drivers of growth, and of long-term economic scenarios in the global literature.

Economic forecasting seeks to manage uncertainty by improving the accuracy of quantitative point forecasts, and related models. Yet, systematic forecast failures remain, and the economy defies prediction, even in the near-term. In contrast, long-term scenario analysis eschews forecasts in favour of a set of plausible or possible alternative scenarios. Using alternative scenarios is a response to the irreducible uncertainty of complex systems, with sophisticated approaches employed to integrate qualitative and quantitative insights.

To support economic and fiscal policymaking, it is necessary support advancement in approaches to economic foresight, to improve handling of uncertainty and related risk.

While European Union Regulation (EC) 1466/97 mandates pursuit of improved accuracy, in short-term economic forecasts, there is now a case for implementing advanced foresight approaches, for improved analysis, and more robust decision-making.

Building economic resilience and adaptability, as part of a sustainable future, requires both long-term strategic planning, and short-term policy. A 21st century policymaking process can be better supported by analysis of alternative scenarios.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the article is original in considering the application of scenario foresight approaches, in economic forecasting. The study has value in improving the baseline forecast methods, that are fundamental to contemporary economics, and in bringing the field of economics into the heart of foresight.

The post-operative management of flexor tendon injuries has been the focus of considerable exploration and there continues to be variation in approaches and methods of mobilisation. The purpose of this paper is to explore therapy management following repair to flexor tendons at zone II and flexor pollicis longus (FPL) (all zones) in Ireland.

A descriptive survey questionnaire design through an online format was used. Therapists were recruited through the Irish Association of Hand Therapists, the national bodies for occupational therapy and physiotherapy, and therapy managers in acute hospitals, with 29 therapists participating in the study. Descriptive statistics were used to analyse the survey data.

Patients were generally seen three to five days following surgery. Early active mobilisation approaches were favoured by all but one therapist, with 62% using the Belfast protocol and 34% the Manchester Short Splint (MSS) protocol. Each early active protocol exercise session commences with passive motion followed by graded active flexion. Tenodesis is incorporated by the majority of respondents within the first four weeks. Therapy programme and splints are modified based on patient presentation. Resistance exercises are commenced from week seven. Patient compliance was identified as the most influential factor in the post-operative intervention approach taken.

This study provides the first Irish profile of current practice in the post-operative management of flexor tendon repairs at zone II and FPL which has not previously been reported. Further research should explore the reasoning behind the interventions chosen and also the implications for practice of changes to surgical techniques.

The assessment of fitness to drive after stroke is an emerging area of occupational therapy practice in Ireland. Despite this, little is known about occupational therapists’ evaluation practices, and there are no internationally agreed clinical guidelines to inform best practice. The purpose of this paper is to investigate occupational therapy evaluation practices for fitness to drive after stroke in Ireland.

This is a cross-sectional study design targeting occupational therapists working with people after stroke using an online survey. Summary and descriptive statistics were used to analyse the returned surveys.

In total, 47 occupational therapists participated. Off-road driving assessment was completed by 68 per cent of respondents. Functional assessment and non-driving-specific assessments were most widely used and perceived to be the most useful in informing the off-road assessment. A total of 89 per cent referred clients for on-road assessments; however, some referred without first completing an off-road assessment. The therapists who completed formal post graduate education/training in driving assessment reported greater confidence and competence in their skills and ability to assess fitness to drive. A vast majority of participants agreed that clinical guidelines regarding best practice in this area would be beneficial.

A majority of occupational therapists are assessing fitness to drive after stroke in Ireland with non-driving-specific assessments and functional observations; however, there are many gaps and wide variations between services. Education/training in evaluating fitness to drive after stroke is recommended. The development of clinical guidelines to inform practice would facilitate a consistent approach nationally.

This is the first study completed in Ireland to investigate occupational therapy evaluation practices for fitness to drive after stroke.

The purpose of this study was to provide an outline of the process of developing an on-road driving test route and rating form. Comprehensive evaluation of medical fitness to drive should comprise of an off-road and an on-road assessment. Much research attention has focussed on the off-road phase of assessment, while there is less standardisation evident in the completion and measurement of the on-road phase of fitness-to-drive assessment.

A scholarship of practice approach was used to inform the development of an on-road test route and an associated generic on-road assessment tool that was guided by research evidence and best practice recommendations.

A step-by-step guide, outlining seven recommended phases in the development of an on-road route for the assessment of fitness to drive that aligns with best practice recommendations, was developed. A preliminary generic on-road assessment tool (the Maynooth–Trinity Driving Test) that includes higher-order cognition alongside element of strategic, tactical and operational driving ability was developed and piloted alongside the newly developed on-road test route.

This paper offers an overview of an approach to developing evidence-based on-road test routes and an associated generic assessment tool that may assist occupational therapists and on-road driving assessors establish a standard practice for testing on-road behaviour as part of a comprehensive approach to evaluate fitness to drive.

In Ireland, the Assisted Decision Making (Capacity) Act 2015 provides a statutory framework to adults who are experiencing difficulties with decision-making. This legislation has significant implications for all who work in health and social care. Increasing age and life expectancy, alongside the rising incidence of chronic health conditions and dementia-related diseases, indicates that more individuals are likely to experience challenges regarding decision-making capacity. Therefore, the need for more consistent, best-practice processes to assess decision-making capacity is likely to increase. To ensure occupational therapists are responsible in their contributions, and to ensure those with disabilities are supported, clinicians must be well-informed of the principles underscoring the Act. The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of this multidisciplinary issue, including recent legislation, and consider how occupational therapy can contribute.

The authors reviewed current literature and considered occupational therapy’s role in decision-making capacity assessment.

Occupational therapists have potential to play a key role in multi-disciplinary assessments of decision-making capacity for clients. Further research is required to explore professional issues, identify clinical best practices and determine training and resource needs.

This paper seeks to provoke consideration of how occupational therapists can contribute to capacity assessment from a client-centred, occupation-based perspective that is mindful of ethical and legislative considerations.

Butt can be placed within the framework of what George Boyce (1995, pp. 18–19) terms colonial patriotism. Butt's analyses of Ireland's economy and development during the next years brought together the several strands that marked out an Ireland of citizens, an Ireland of sort which has emerged at the turn of the present millennium. What were the influences on Butt and what is his place in the development of political economy? His position is best characterised as eclectic and distinct from the other early holders of the Whately Chair. Drawing upon but not endorsing classical political economy, Adam Smith, Longfield, Jean-Baptiste Say and others, Butt defies pigeonholing. His economic analysis emerged slowly, and initially, there was little hint that he would expand on Longfield's position which essentially was a theory of profit (McGovern, 2000, p. 5). However, Butt moved beyond Longfield's analysis and whereas the latter remained in the classical tradition on free trade, he did not. He expanded Longfield's approach that crucial to the determination of the price of goods was the importance of applying a unit of whatever resource to its marginal use, concluding that the factors of production were remunerated in relation to the utility they created in their least efficient, marginal employment (Boylan & Foley, 2003, Vol. 2, p. 10). His importance, it has been observed, was in drawing attention to the potential resource mobilisation and distribution aspects of protection and in assessing the benefits and weaknesses of protection in relation to the complexity of specific circumstances (Boylan and Foley, 2003, Vol. 3, p. 5). Butt's Whatley lectures have received most attention although it will be suggested that certain of his other writings were as important or even more significant as indicative of his ideas on political economy. In his first Whatley lecture (Butt, 1837a), appropriating the title ‘Introduction’, Butt outlined somewhat verbosely the scope of what he intended to address and adopted the high ground about the purpose of political economy. He declared it was ‘to teach certain truths connected with the social condition of man – it attempts to explain the nature of the causes by which is brought about that singular machinery of society by which Providence has set man to supply each other's wants, and thus receive and confer a mutual benefit’ (1837a, p. 23). Butt addressed the question of production and the creation of ‘utility’. Employing the illustration of cotton stockings, Butt demonstrated the complex interchange required to produce even the most mundane of articles (1837a, pp. 25–26). ‘When you purchase your pair of cotton stockings’, he noted, ‘you are positively commanding for your own personal comfort and accommodation, not only the services of thousands of your cotemporary fellow creatures, but the accumulated results of the labours of generations that have long since passed away’ (1837a, p. 28). Thus, he maintained, political economy ‘teaches the laws which regulate the production, distribution and consumption of wealth’ (1837a, p. 30).