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1 – 10 of over 27000The purpose of this paper is to apply survival analysis, using Cox proportional hazards regression (CPHR), to the problem of predicting if and when supply chain (SC) customers or…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to apply survival analysis, using Cox proportional hazards regression (CPHR), to the problem of predicting if and when supply chain (SC) customers or suppliers might file a petition for bankruptcy so that proactive steps may be taken to avoid a SC disruption.
Design/methodology/approach
CPHR is first compared to multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) and logistic regression (LR) to assess its suitability and accuracy to SC applications using three years of financial quarterly data for 69 non-bankrupt and 74 bankrupt organizations. A k-means clustering approach is then applied to the survival curves of all 143 organizations to explore heuristics for predicting the timing of bankruptcy petitions.
Findings
CPHR makes bankruptcy predictions at least as accurately as MDA and LR. The survival function also provides valuable information on when bankruptcy might occur. This information allows SC members to be prioritized into three groups: financially healthy companies of no immediate risk, companies with imminent risk of bankruptcy and companies with intermediate levels of risk that need monitoring.
Originality/value
The current paper proposes a new analytical approach to scanning and assessing the financial risk of SC members (suppliers or customers). Traditional models are able to predict if but not when a financial failure will occur. Lacking this information, it is impossible for SC managers to prioritize risk mitigation activities. A simple decision rule is developed to guide SC managers in setting these priorities.
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Greg N. Gregoriou and Razvan Pascalau
The purpose of this paper is to propose that simple measures of linear association are unable to capture accurately the dependence between the survival of hedge funds and funds of…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to propose that simple measures of linear association are unable to capture accurately the dependence between the survival of hedge funds and funds of funds, respectively. The paper then aims to advocate the use of copulas to model the joint survival of hedge funds and funds of funds managed by the same manager.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper uses both a one‐step approach where the margins and the copula parameters are estimated jointly, and a two‐step approach where the margins are fitted first and the copula parameter is estimated thereafter given the fixed margins. The margins are estimated non‐parametrically, semi‐parametrically, and parametrically, respectively.
Findings
First, the paper finds that Kendall's tau and Spearman's rho are anywhere between three and eight times larger than the corresponding sample based measures when various families of copulas are employed. Second, additional tests show that the two survival functions are strongly dependent, with the degree of nonlinear association increasing in the lower left quadrant.
Originality/value
This is the first paper to use copulas to model the joint survival of hedge funds and funds of funds. The results highlight the asymmetric dependence between hedge funds and funds of funds, which has implications for risk management practices.
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A.B. Khalaf, Y. Hamam, Y. Alayli and K. Djouani
Studying the availability of medical equipment based on various maintenance types has been a major concern for hospitals. Most of the methodologies used are empirical and few are…
Abstract
Purpose
Studying the availability of medical equipment based on various maintenance types has been a major concern for hospitals. Most of the methodologies used are empirical and few are based on mathematical modelling. The objective of this paper is to present a mathematical maintenance model that analyses the effect of maintenance on the survival probability of medical equipment based on maintenance history and age of that equipment.
Design/methodology/approach
A global model is proposed to measure the probability of equipment being available using real data extracted from maintenance history of infusion pumps and ventilators and analysed using Matlab. To confirm the validity of the developed model, the survival analysis approach is used to develop a model that measures the survival of equipment as a function of maintenance and age of equipment. The method is first tested using simulated data and the findings confirm the validity of the proposed approach.
Findings
The analysis using survival approach reveals that conducting preventive maintenance (PM) on the selected medical equipment had an impact on survival of equipment. However, the manufacturer's recommended PM intervals do not correlate to the failure rate encountered. This will contribute to the debate on PM manufacturer's recommended intervals and might lead to the revision of maintenance strategies implemented by hospitals and clinical engineering (CE) practitioners.
Research limitations/implications
Although the data collected for the infusion pumps were quite sufficient, that collected for the ventilators were more limited. The major difficulty is that of the availability of historical maintenance data and the effect of user errors may cause uncertainty in the analysis. A closer collaboration with the medical professional should facilitate the recording and access to such information.
Practical implications
The use of mathematical modelling to analyse the effect of maintenance on the survival of medical equipment is a beneficial tool that is not exploited in the medical equipment industry. It will provide CE practitioners with scientific tool to analyse the effect of PM on the survival of medical equipment.
Originality/value
This paper presents a mathematical approach to analyse the effect of maintenance on the survival of medical equipment, which is crucial in the assessment of maintenance strategies implemented in the medical equipment industry.
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The purpose of this paper is to identify the critical components of a complex system by using survival signature. First, a complex system is abstracted with varying scales and…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to identify the critical components of a complex system by using survival signature. First, a complex system is abstracted with varying scales and generates a multi-levels model. Then reliability evaluations can be conducted by survival signature from rough to fine for tracing and identifying them. Finally, the feasibility of the proposed approach is demonstrated by an actual production system.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper mainly applies a multi-level evaluating strategy for the reliability analysis of complex systems with components of multiple types. In addition, a multi-levels model of a complex system is constructed and survival signature also used for evaluation.
Findings
The proposed approach was demonstrated to be the feasibility by an actual production system that is used in the case study.
Research limitations/implications
The case study was performed on a system with simple network structure, but the proposed approach could be applied to systems with complex ones. However, the approach to generate the digraphs of abstraction levels for complex system has to be developed.
Practical implications
So far the approach has been used for the reliability analysis of a machining system. The approach that is proposed for the identification of critical components also can be applied to make maintenance decision.
Originality/value
The multi-level evaluating strategy that was proposed for reliability analysis and the identification of critical components of complex systems was a novel method, and it also can be applied as index to make maintenance planning.
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The purpose of this paper is to discuss issues related to customer churn behavior in digital libraries (DLs) and demonstrate the successful application of Survival Analysis for…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to discuss issues related to customer churn behavior in digital libraries (DLs) and demonstrate the successful application of Survival Analysis for understanding customer churn status and relationship duration distribution between customers and libraries.
Design/methodology/approach
The study applies non-parametric methods of Survival Analysis to analyze churn behaviors of 8,054 customers from a famous Chinese digital library, and a cluster method to make customer segmentation according to customer behavioral features.
Findings
The customer churn rate of the given library is very high, so as to the churn hazard in early three months after customer's registration on the web site of the library. There is clear difference in both customer survival time and churn hazard among customer groups. It is necessary to strengthen customer churn analysis and customer relationship management (CRM) for DLs.
Research limitations/implications
The studied samples are mainly based on customers from one digital library and some hypotheses have not been strictly proven due to the absence of relevant empirical researches.
Practical implications
This study provides a reasonable basis for decision making about CRM in DLs.
Originality/value
Most previous researches about information behavior concentrate on information seeking behavior in DLs, seldom discuss customer switching behavior. The paper discusses issues related to customer churn analysis and illustrates the adaptation of Survival Analysis to understand customer churn status and relationship duration distribution in DLs.
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Banks in India have started opening their branches in different areas to make sure that their customers get a high-touch experience and they see them as a premier brand. This…
Abstract
Purpose
Banks in India have started opening their branches in different areas to make sure that their customers get a high-touch experience and they see them as a premier brand. This could be ensured only if the banks show a stable physical presence in the market as well as provide the recent high-tech services to their customers as per the population group. The purpose of this study is to examine the survival rates of the commercial banks in India across the four population groups along with the differences that exist in their survival rates in all the population groups.
Design/methodology/approach
The analysis is based on the quarterly data of the number of functioning offices of the commercial banks in India as per the four population groups from March 2006 to December 2019. The survival is estimated using the Kaplan–Meier estimator.
Findings
From the analysis, it is revealed that survival of the banks changes as per the population group. In addition to this, it is found that the survival time of each category of the bank varies in each population group.
Research limitations/implications
This study focuses only on the commercial banks of India; a similar research could be done for other categories of Indian banks. Also, the results would have been different if the variables such as the size of the bank, bank risk, etc. are included and studied. Moreover, this study is done using the Kaplan–Meier estimator, i.e. time-to-event. Further, an advance study could be done after considering the financial parameters of banks using the Cox’s regression model, which explores the relationship between various predictors and the time-to-event.
Social implications
Due to the changes in the preferences of societies, the banks should also adopt different strategies to ensure that their products are understood and accepted by their customers. This will eventually increase the survival rate of the banks.
Originality/value
The work made in this study is completely new.
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Jonathan A. Jensen, Akash Mishra and Mara Averick
Over the past several years, growth in sponsorship spending has surpassed that of traditional marketing and promotional approaches, as it has become an indispensable part of the…
Abstract
Purpose
Over the past several years, growth in sponsorship spending has surpassed that of traditional marketing and promotional approaches, as it has become an indispensable part of the marketing mix. Yet, despite considerable advances in the application of analytics across the sport industry, sponsorship revenue forecasting still largely relies on a decades-old methodology. The paper aims to discuss this issue.
Design/methodology/approach
This research seeks to assist sport organizations by applying more advanced survival analysis methodologies to the study of shirt sponsorships of football clubs, utilizing more than 300 sponsorships of every team that has competed in the English Premier League (EPL) over the past 25 years.
Findings
The analysis of the lifetimes of shirt sponsorships provides several insights for those employed by European football clubs and tasked with managing these increasingly lucrative sponsorships. Notably, tests confirmed that survivor functions of EPL shirt sponsorships are significantly different than those that appeared solely in English Football League (EFL) Championship play. In addition, results found that the median lifetimes of shirt sponsorships of EPL clubs were more than one year longer, when compared to EFL clubs.
Originality/value
This research marks the first attempt in the literature to apply survival analysis methods to describe the lifetimes of European football shirt sponsorships. The results provide empirical evidence that the potential effects of promotion or relegation could have consequences for football clubs in the tens of millions of dollars, and illustrate the importance of providing those tasked with managing such partnerships with more advanced methodologies to assist in the organization’s sponsorship revenue forecasting activities.
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Dimitrios Michalopoulos and Ioannis Mavridis
The purpose of this paper is to investigate hazards for minor users while they are exposed to social networks. In particular, it provides the statistical relationship of these…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to investigate hazards for minor users while they are exposed to social networks. In particular, it provides the statistical relationship of these hazards with the exposure time as well as the amount of published personal information.
Design/methodology/approach
An experiment was conducted that has revealed a huge number of personal information exposed by users of social network applications. Moreover, a significant amount of suspicious activity against minors has been recorded. Experimental data led to the hypothesis that online hazards can be modeled with known statistical distributions. In order to examine this hypothesis, survival analysis techniques, which involve the estimation of certain functions that reflect the relation of a disastrous event with time, were applied.
Findings
The results show that the incoming hazards for minor female profiles follow the Logistic distribution, while the corresponding hazards for minor male profiles follow the Normal distribution.
Originality/value
The findings of this work are crucial for developing an effective system for automated grooming recognition in real time by optimizing the detection threshold as a function of time. Thus, the threshold sensitivity can be appropriately adjusted such that lower frequencies of occurrence lead to lower threshold sensitivities, and higher frequencies of occurrence lead to higher threshold sensitivities.
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Kai-Qi Yuan, Hui Li, Sai Liang and Qian-Xia Chen
The impact of a mixture of positive and negative media coverage on long-run hotel survival remains unknown. This paper aims to investigate how the mixed positive and negative…
Abstract
Purpose
The impact of a mixture of positive and negative media coverage on long-run hotel survival remains unknown. This paper aims to investigate how the mixed positive and negative media coverage, namely, inconsistent media coverage, influences long-run hotel survival.
Design/methodology/approach
A yearly panel data set covering 792 news-reported hotels in Guangdong province of China, over the period 2010–2020, is analyzed using an inconsistency analysis framework consisting of text mining and survival analysis. The estimates of exponential models on the same observations and Cox estimates on alternative observations are used for robustness checks.
Findings
The inconsistency calculation method proposed here can measure the controversy degree well. There exists a U-shaped relationship between inconsistency of media coverage and hotel longevity, and hotel survival is significantly reduced only when the degree of inconsistency is within the range of 17.8%–53.6%. The U-shaped relationship is moderated by negative hotel image and by online media coverage on hotel operation strategy topics.
Practical implications
This study provides suggestions for hotel managers to use media coverage inconsistency to increase long-run hotel survival in the digital era.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper is one of the first to investigate long-run hotel survival factors from the perspective of media coverage inconsistency. It also proposes a method to calculate the degree of media coverage controversy, which helps to quantify the relationship between the degree of inconsistency and hotel survival.
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Maria Mavri and George Ioannou
This paper aims to examine customer switching behaviour in Greek banking services. More specifically it aims to investigate predictors of churn behaviour as part of customer…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to examine customer switching behaviour in Greek banking services. More specifically it aims to investigate predictors of churn behaviour as part of customer relationship management (CRM).
Design/methodology/approach
The enhancement of existing relationships is of pivotal importance to banks, since attracting new customers is known to be more expensive. The paper discusses survival analysis based on data collected from customers of a leading financial services company. It examines a number of variables, which represent characteristics of the customers and of the offered services and products. By using life tables, it estimates the contribution of each separate factor in customers' switching behaviour in different periods of time.
Findings
A hazard proportional model is built to determine the risk of churn behaviour, which is the end‐result of all the examined factors.
Practical implications
Bank's management team could use the findings of our study, in order to determine specific attributes in designing financial services and products, which would add in customers' satisfaction.
Originality/value
The approach and results have significant implications for enlarging the duration of the relationship among customer and bank.
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