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Article
Publication date: 13 October 2021

Guangsheng Zhang, Xiao Wang, Zhiqing Meng, Qirui Zhang and Kexin Wu

To remedy the inherent defect in current research that focuses only on a single type of participants, this paper endeavors to look into the situation as an evolutionary…

Abstract

Purpose

To remedy the inherent defect in current research that focuses only on a single type of participants, this paper endeavors to look into the situation as an evolutionary game between a representative Logistics Service Integrator (LSI) and a representative Functional Logistics Service Provider (FLSP) in an environment with sudden crisis and tries to analyze how LSI supervises FLSP's operations and how FLSP responds in a recurrent pattern with different interruption probabilities.

Design/methodology/approach

Regarding the risks of supply chain interruption in emergencies, this paper develops a two-level model of single LSI and single FLSP, using Evolutionary Game theory to analyze their optimal decision-making, as well as their strategic behaviors on different risk levels regarding the interruption probability to achieve the optimal return with bounded rationality.

Findings

The results show that on a low-risk level, if LSI increases the degree of punishment, it will fail to enhance FLSP's operational activeness in the long term; when the risk rises to an intermediate level, a circular game occurs between LSI and FLSP; and on a high level of risk, FLSP will actively take actions, and its functional probability further impacts LSI's strategic choices. Finally, this paper analyzes the moderating impact of punishment intensity and social reputation loss on the evolutionary model in emergencies and provides relevant managerial implications.

Originality/value

First, by taking both interruption probability and emergencies into consideration, this paper explores the interactions among the factors relevant to LSI's and FLSP's optimal decision-making. Second, this paper analyzes the optimal evolutionary game strategies of LSI and FLSP with different interruption probability and the range of their optimal strategies. Third, the findings of this paper provide valuable implications for relevant practices, such that the punishment intensity and social reputation loss determine the optimal strategies of LSI and FLSP, and thus it is an effective vehicle for LSSC system administrator to achieve the maximum efficiency of the system.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

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Article
Publication date: 14 July 2020

Banu Priya and Rajendran P.

The authors consider parallel four-state tandem open queueing network. The queue capacity is infinite. Passenger arrival rate is Poisson distribution and service rate is…

Abstract

Purpose

The authors consider parallel four-state tandem open queueing network. The queue capacity is infinite. Passenger arrival rate is Poisson distribution and service rate is exponential distribution. The queue is constructed in the form of tandem queue, and each and every queue of tandem queue is single server (M/M/1) queue. In tandem queue, passengers will leave the system once they receive service from both the states. The purpose of this paper is to provide performance analysis for four-state tandem open queue network, and a governing equation is formulated with the help of transition diagram. Using Burke theorem, the authors formulated equation for average number of passenger in the system, average waiting time of passenger in the system, average number of passenger in the queue and average waiting time of passenger in the queue.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper used Burke’s theorem.

Findings

In this paper, performance analysis is done for parallel four-state tandem open queueing network and performance measure solved using Burkes theorem formula. K. Sreekanth et al. has done performance analysis for single tandem queue with three states. In this paper, the authors have done performance analysis for two tandem queues parallel with four states. This four-state tandem open queueing network is suitable for real world applications. This paper can extend for more number of service states and multi-server states according to the application, and in such case, the authors have to prove and explain with numerical examples. This analysis is more useful for the applications such as airports, railway stations, bus-stands and banks.

Originality/value

In this paper, parallel four-state tandem open queueing network and performance measure has been solved using Burke’s theorem formula.

Details

International Journal of Pervasive Computing and Communications, vol. 17 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1742-7371

Keywords

Content available
Article
Publication date: 2 September 2021

Amany Yashoa Gad

This paper aims to identify the level of contribution of different levels of education to remaining in unemployment as well as the transition from unemployment to…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to identify the level of contribution of different levels of education to remaining in unemployment as well as the transition from unemployment to employment in Egypt.

Design/methodology/approach

In this paper, transition probabilities matrix differentiated by gender, age groups, educational levels, marital status and place of residence based on worker flows across employment, unemployment and out of labor force states during the period 2012–2018 using Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey of 2018. The results point to the highly static nature of the Egyptian labor market. Employment and the out of labor force states are the least mobile among labor market states. This is because employment state is very desirable and the out of labor force is the largest labor market states, especially for females. Also, this study examines the impact of different educational levels separately on remaining in unemployment and transition from unemployment to employment state using eight binary logistic regression models.

Findings

The main results of transitions from unemployment to employment are relatively large for males, elder-age, uneducated workers as well as workers who are not married and urban residents, and the results of the logistic regression models consistent with the transition probabilities matrix results, except for few cases. Based on the above findings, there is enough evidence to accept the null hypothesis that no education has a positive significant impact to transition unemployed individuals from unemployment to employment, while less than intermediate as well as higher education have a negative significant impact to transition unemployed individuals from unemployment to employment.

Originality/value

This paper proposes to address the problem of the unemployment among highly educated which is much higher compared with illiterates and try to understand the impact of different levels of education separately on the transition from unemployment to employment, to help the policymakers to eradicate the gap between education and the demand of the labor market in Egypt.

Details

Review of Economics and Political Science, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2356-9980

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Article
Publication date: 4 January 2013

Thankappan Vasanthi and Ganapathy Arulmozhi

The purpose of this paper is to use Bayesian probability theory to analyze the software reliability model with multiple types of faults. The probability that all faults…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to use Bayesian probability theory to analyze the software reliability model with multiple types of faults. The probability that all faults are detected and corrected after a series of independent software tests and correction cycles is presented. This in turn has a number of applications, such as how long to test a software, estimating the cost of testing, etc.

Design/methodology/approach

The use of Bayesian probabilistic models, when compared to traditional point forecast estimation models, provides tools for risk estimation and allows decision makers to combine historical data with subjective expert estimates. Probability evaluation is done both prior to and after observing the number of faults detected in each cycle. The conditions under which these two measures, the conditional and unconditional probabilities, are the same is also shown. Expressions are derived to evaluate the probability that, after a series of sequential independent reviews have been completed, no class of fault remains in the software system by assuming the prior distribution as Poisson and binomial.

Findings

From results in Sections 4 and 5 it can be observed that the conditional and unconditional probabilities are the same if the prior probability distribution is Poisson and binomial. In these cases the confidence that all faults are deleted is not a function of the number of faults observed during the successive reviews but it is a function of the number of reviews, the detection probabilities and the mean of the prior distribution. This is a remarkable result because it gives a circumstance in which the statistical confidence from a Bayesian analysis is actually independent of all observed data. From the result in Section 4 it can be seen that exponential formula could be used to evaluate the probability that no fault remains when a Poisson prior distribution is combined with a multinomial detection process in each review cycle.

Originality/value

The paper is part of research work for a PhD degree.

Details

International Journal of Quality & Reliability Management, vol. 30 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0265-671X

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Article
Publication date: 18 November 2011

Amarjit Singh

The purpose of this paper is to inform facility managers of the type of failure affecting certain pipe types more than others. This is useful in asset management as…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to inform facility managers of the type of failure affecting certain pipe types more than others. This is useful in asset management as preventive maintenance can be undertaken for those pipe types that experience high probabilities of failure.

Design/methodology/approach

The probability of a specific pipe type failing given the cause of break, age at failure, pipe diameter, and type of soil at the location of the break was found using inventory and main break data from the Honolulu Board of Water Supply (HBWS). Bayes’ theorem was then applied to find the posterior probabilities of failure starting from the prior probabilities of failure.

Findings

It was observed that the greatest probabilities of failure involved corrosion, pipes aged between 20‐30 years, 8″ pipes, and pipes in fill material. The pipe types were ranked and scored based on their probability of failing due to break cause, age, diameter, and soil type. Cast iron pipes were shown to have the highest probability of failing. As such, attention should be given to replace segments of cast iron pipes as they reach the end of their service lives.

Practical implications

This study serves to address a major query in asset management at a public utility, that of which pipes should be selected for replacement when they reach the end of their service life. In addition, this study helps to understand the causes of failure for the various types of pipe.

Social Implications

The importance of having reliable water supply at low cost has immense social implications in modern communities. To deliver such service, water pipe assets have to be managed efficiently.

Originality/value

This paper addresses the probability of failure in a straightforward manner that the water utility can easily apply to its own data, both in its design and asset management.

Details

Built Environment Project and Asset Management, vol. 1 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-124X

Keywords

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Book part
Publication date: 6 July 2007

Paul D. Thistle

For over 60 years, Lerner's (1944) probabilistic approach to the welfare evaluation of income distributions has aroused controversy. Lerner's famous theorem is that, under…

Abstract

For over 60 years, Lerner's (1944) probabilistic approach to the welfare evaluation of income distributions has aroused controversy. Lerner's famous theorem is that, under ignorance regarding who has which utility function, the optimal distribution of income is completely equal. However, Lerner's probabilistic approach can only be applied to compare distributions with equal means when the number of possible utility functions equals the number of individuals in the population. Lerner's most controversial assumption that each assignment of utility functions to individuals is equally likely. This paper generalizes Lerner's probabilistic approach to the welfare analysis of income distributions by weakening the restrictions of utilitarian welfare, equal means, equal numbers, and equal probabilities and a homogeneous population. We show there is a tradeoff between invariance (measurability and comparability) and the information about the assignment of utility functions to individuals required to evaluate expected social welfare.

Details

Equity
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-7623-1450-8

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Book part
Publication date: 11 November 1994

E. Eide

Abstract

Details

Economics of Crime: Deterrence and the Rational Offender
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-44482-072-3

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Book part
Publication date: 3 June 2008

Nathaniel T. Wilcox

Choice under risk has a large stochastic (unpredictable) component. This chapter examines five stochastic models for binary discrete choice under risk and how they combine…

Abstract

Choice under risk has a large stochastic (unpredictable) component. This chapter examines five stochastic models for binary discrete choice under risk and how they combine with “structural” theories of choice under risk. Stochastic models are substantive theoretical hypotheses that are frequently testable in and of themselves, and also identifying restrictions for hypothesis tests, estimation and prediction. Econometric comparisons suggest that for the purpose of prediction (as opposed to explanation), choices of stochastic models may be far more consequential than choices of structures such as expected utility or rank-dependent utility.

Details

Risk Aversion in Experiments
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-84950-547-5

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Book part
Publication date: 14 July 2010

Hugh Pforsich, Susan Gill and Debra Sanders

This study examines contextual influences on taxpayers’ perceptions of a vague “low” probability of detection and the relationship between taxpayers’ perceptions and their…

Abstract

This study examines contextual influences on taxpayers’ perceptions of a vague “low” probability of detection and the relationship between taxpayers’ perceptions and their likelihood to take questionable tax deductions. As such, we tie psychological theories that explain differential interpretations of qualitative probability phrases (base rate and support theories) to the taxpayer perception literature. Consistent with our hypotheses, taxpayers’ interpretations of “low” differ both between and within subjects, depending on the context in which deductions are presented. On average, our taxpayer subjects are less likely to take questionable deductions perceived to have a higher probability of detection than those perceived to have a lower detection probability. Our results contribute to existing literature by demonstrating that knowledge of subjects’ assessments of an event's probability is integral to designing experiments and drawing conclusions regarding observed behavior. This appears necessary even when researchers provide assessments of detection probabilities and/or employ scenarios for which systematic differences in probability perceptions are not inherently obvious.

Details

Advances in Taxation
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-85724-140-5

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Book part
Publication date: 3 June 2008

Glenn W. Harrison and E. Elisabet Rutström

We review the experimental evidence on risk aversion in controlled laboratory settings. We review the strengths and weaknesses of alternative elicitation procedures, the…

Abstract

We review the experimental evidence on risk aversion in controlled laboratory settings. We review the strengths and weaknesses of alternative elicitation procedures, the strengths and weaknesses of alternative estimation procedures, and finally the effect of controlling for risk attitudes on inferences in experiments.

Details

Risk Aversion in Experiments
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-84950-547-5

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