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1 – 10 of over 1000Ghulame Rubbaniy, Ali Awais Khalid, Abiot Tessema and Abdelrahman Baqrain
The purpose of the paper is to investigate co-movement of major implied volatility indices and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) indices with both the health-based fear index and…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of the paper is to investigate co-movement of major implied volatility indices and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) indices with both the health-based fear index and market-based fear index of COVID-19 for the USA and the UK to help investors and portfolio managers in their informed investment decisions during times of infectious disease spread.
Design/methodology/approach
This study uses wavelet coherence approach because it allows to observe lead–lag nonlinear relationship between two time-series variables and captures the heterogeneous perceptions of investors across time and frequency. The daily data used in this study about the USA and the UK covers major implied volatility indices, EPU, health-based fear index and market-based fear index of COVID-19 for both the first and second waves of COVID-19 pandemic over the period from March 3, 2020 to February 12, 2021.
Findings
The results document a strong positive co-movement between implied volatility indices and two proxies of the COVID-19 fear. However, in all the cases, the infectious disease equity market volatility index (IDEMVI), the COVID-19 proxy, is more representative of the stock market and exhibits a stronger positive co-movement with volatility indices than the COVID-19 fear index (C19FI). This study also finds that the UK’s implied volatility index weakly co-moves with the C19FI compared to the USA. The results show that EPU indices of both the USA and the UK exhibit a weak or no correlation with the C19FI. However, this study finds a significant and positive co-movement of EPU indices with IDEMVI over the short horizon and most of the sampling period with the leading effect of IDEMVI. This study’s robustness analysis using partial wavelet coherence provides further strengths to the findings.
Research limitations/implications
The investment decisions and risk management of investors and portfolio managers in financial markets are affected by the new information on volatility and EPU. The findings provide insights to equity investors and portfolio managers to improve their risk management practices by incorporating how health-related risks such as COVID-19 pandemic can contribute to the market volatility and economic risks. The results are beneficial for long-term equity investors, as their investments are affected by contributing factors to the volatility in US and UK’s stock markets.
Originality/value
This study adds following promising values to the existing literature. First, the results complement the existing literature (Rubbaniy et al., 2021c) in documenting that type of COVID-19 proxy matters in explaining the volatility (EPU) relationships in financial markets, where market perceived fear of COVID-19 is appeared to be more pronounced than health-based fear of COVID-19. Second, the use of wavelet coherence approach allows us to observe lead–lag relationship between the selected variables, which captures the heterogeneous perceptions of investors across time and frequency and have important insights for the investors and portfolio managers. Finally, this study uses the improved data of COVID-19, stock market volatility and EPU compared to the existing studies (Sharif et al., 2020), which are too early to capture the effects of exponential spread of COVID-19 in the USA and the UK after March 2020.
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This study aims to observe the extent of asset diversification benefits in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)-5 market by examining the effect of financial…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to observe the extent of asset diversification benefits in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)-5 market by examining the effect of financial integration (FI) and financial development (FD) on domestic stock–bond co-movements, SBcorr.
Design/methodology/approach
The dynamic conditional correlation - multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (DCC-MGARCH) technique is adopted to construct FI and stock−bond co-movement variables. Then, the study uses static panel data analysis to examine the effect of FI on stock−bond co-movements.
Findings
FI does not provide asset diversification benefits due to high country risks in ASEAN-5. However, when FI is moderated by FD, FI × FD, the study shows that FI × FD provides higher asset diversification benefits in ASEAN-5.
Originality/value
This study shows the importance of incorporating the level of FD when assessing the effect of FI on stock–bond co-movements in ASEAN-5. In the presence of FI, a well-diversified investor should always consider the state of FD, which will show a better representation of asset diversification strategy in the emerging markets. Additionally, policymakers of ASEAN-5 countries should prioritise enhancing their financial system to attract more investment into the countries.
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Using daily returns from 1980‐2006, we find a significant contemporaneous association between all European Union (EU) equity markets and Germany. There is, however, no significant…
Abstract
Using daily returns from 1980‐2006, we find a significant contemporaneous association between all European Union (EU) equity markets and Germany. There is, however, no significant indication that the German stock market leads or lags the movements in the other EU stock markets. A higher share of imports by Germany from other EU countries, as well as fluctuations and increased volatility in the exchange rate, have negative effects on stock market co‐movements. Conversely, the difference in equity market capitalization with Germany, the greater the foreign direct investment by Germany, and the fact of belonging to the eurozone all contribute to greater stock market co‐movement.
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Burcu Kartal, Mehmet Fatih Sert and Melih Kutlu
This study aims to provide preliminary information to the investor by determining which indices co-movement, with the data mining method.
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to provide preliminary information to the investor by determining which indices co-movement, with the data mining method.
Design/methodology/approach
In this context, data sets containing daily opening and closing prices between 2001 and 2019 have been created for 11 stock market indexes in the world. The association rule algorithm, one of the data mining techniques, is used in the analysis of the data.
Findings
It is observed that the US stock market indices take part in the highest confidence levels between association rules. The XU100 stock index co-movement with both the European stock market indices and the US stock indices. In addition, the Hang Seng Index (HSI) (Hong Kong) takes part in the association rules of all stock market indices.
Originality/value
The important issue for data sets is that the opening/closing values of the same day or the previous day are taken into account according to the open or closed status of other stock market indices by taking the opening time of the stock exchange index to be created. Therefore, data sets are arranged for each stock market index, separately. As a result of this data set arranging process, it is possible to find out co-movements of the stock market indexes. It is proof that the world stock indices have co-movement, and this continues as a cycle.
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Panos Fousekis and Vasilis Grigoriadis
This paper aims to investigate empirically the linkages between stock and commodity futures markets.
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to investigate empirically the linkages between stock and commodity futures markets.
Design/methodology/approach
It involves the application of a flexible copula approach to weekly total returns from the S&P 500 index and from three commodity sub-indices (agriculture, metals and energy) from 1995 to 2017.
Findings
Co-movement is by no means frequent and symmetric. It was predominantly zero before the last financial crisis, and since then, it is positive and asymmetric. The pattern of asymmetry is consistent with transmission of shocks under extreme negative shocks only. Recently, total returns of commodity futures are very poor. At the same time, commodity futures markets move in step (out of step) with stock markets when the latter plunge (rise), pointing to limited diversification benefits. These appear to justify the concerns of investors and researchers whether including commodities in a portfolio of assets is still a prudent investment strategy.
Originality/value
It is the only manuscript that combines a flexible copula approach and co-movement measurement along both the positive and negative diagonals. The findings are in sharp contrast with those reported by Delatte and Lopez (2013) and are very important for portfolio management.
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The aim of this paper is threefold: (1) to develop a new measure of investor sentiment rational (ISR) of developing countries by applying principal component analysis (PCA), (2…
Abstract
Purpose
The aim of this paper is threefold: (1) to develop a new measure of investor sentiment rational (ISR) of developing countries by applying principal component analysis (PCA), (2) to investigate co-movements between the ten developing stock markets, the sentiment investor's, exchange rates and geopolitical risk (GPR) during Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, (3) to explore the key factors that might affect exchange market and capital market before and mainly during Russia–Ukraine war period.
Design/methodology/approach
The wavelet approach and the multivariate wavelet coherence (MWC) are applied to detect the co-movements on daily data from August 2019 to December 2022. Value-at-risk (VaR) and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) are used to assess the systemic risks of exchange rate market and stock market return in the developing market.
Findings
Results of this study reveal (1) strong interdependence between GPR, investor sentiment rational (ISR), stock market index and exchange rate in short- and long-terms in most countries, as inferred from (WTC) analysis. (2) There is evidence of strong short-term co-movements between ISR and exchange rates, with ISR leading. (3) Multivariate coherency shows strong contributions of ISR and GPR index to stock market index and exchange rate returns. The findings signal the attractiveness of the Vietnamese dong, Malaysian ringgits and Tunisian dinar as a hedge for currency portfolios against GPR. The authors detect a positive connectedness in the short term between all pairs of the variables analyzed in most countries. (4) Both foreign exchange and equity markets are exposed to higher levels of systemic risk in the period of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Originality/value
This study provides information that supports investors, regulators and executive managers in developing countries. The impact of sentiment investor with GPR intensified the co-movements of stocks market and exchange market during 2021–2022, which overlaps with period of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
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Fatma Alahouel and Nadia Loukil
This study examines co-movements between global Islamic index and heterogeneous rated/maturity sukuk. It tests the impact of financial uncertainty on these movements.
Abstract
Purpose
This study examines co-movements between global Islamic index and heterogeneous rated/maturity sukuk. It tests the impact of financial uncertainty on these movements.
Design/methodology/approach
Firstly, we conduct a bivariate wavelet analysis to assess the co-movements between stocks and sukuk indexes. Secondly, we use General dynamic factor model and stochastic volatility to construct financial uncertainty index from Islamic stock indexes. Finally, we run regression analysis to determine the impact of uncertainty on the obtained correlations.
Findings
Our results suggest the absence of flight to quality phenomenon since correlations are positive especially at a short investment horizon. There is evidence of contagion phenomena across assets. Financial uncertainty may be considered as a determinant of stock-sukuk co-movements. Our results show that a rise in financial uncertainty induces correlation to move in the opposite direction in the short term, (exception for correlation with AA-Rated sukuk). However, the sign of stock market uncertainty becomes positive in the long term, which leads sukuk and stocks to move in the same direction (exception for 1–3 Year and AA Rated sukuk).
Practical implications
Investors may combine sukuk with 1–3 Year maturity and AA Rated when considering long holding periods. Further, all sukuk categories provide diversification benefit in time high financial uncertainty expectation for AA Rated sukuk when considering short holding periods.
Originality/value
To the best of our best knowledge, our study is the first investigation of the impact of financial uncertainty on Stock-sukuk co-movements and provides recommendation considering sukuk with different characteristics.
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Abhisek Saha Roy and Som Sankar Sen
The present study has two objectives. First, one is to clarify the terms, “co-movement” and “co-integration” in the context of stock market indices. Second, to investigate…
Abstract
The present study has two objectives. First, one is to clarify the terms, “co-movement” and “co-integration” in the context of stock market indices. Second, to investigate empirically, whether an emerging stock market index represented by Nifty has moved together with DJI and N225 during the study period and whether they are co-integrated or not. This chapter tries to search out an answer for co-movement and co-integration staying within the theoretical framework through an extensive review of the literature. Moreover, the present study is unique because it tries to focus mostly on the pros and cons of financial integration and trade liberalization and the contributing factors responsible for trade and financial integrations leading to co-movement and co-integration among the countries considered in this study. India is taken as a proxy for an emerging economy. Furthermore, this chapter considers America and Japan as proxies for the developed countries around the globe and a significant country among the APAC nations, respectively. The empirical results reveal that not only three indices are highly correlated but they also possess a co-integrating relationship. This establishes the fact that neither is there any scope of international diversification in the short run nor in the long run. However, the Granger causality test results point out the fact that Nifty granger causes DJI and N225 during the study period.
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The purpose of this paper is to examine weekly dynamic conditional correlations (DCC) and vector autoregressive (VAR)-based volatility spillover effects within the three Greater…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to examine weekly dynamic conditional correlations (DCC) and vector autoregressive (VAR)-based volatility spillover effects within the three Greater China (GC) public property markets, as well as across the GC property markets, three Asian emerging markets and two developed markets of the USA and Japan over the period from January 1999 through December 2013.
Design/methodology/approach
First, the author employ the DCC methodology proposed by Engle (2002) to examine the time-varying nature in return co-movements among the public property markets. Second, the author appeal to the generalized VAR methodology, variance decomposition and the generalized spillover index of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) to investigate the volatility spillover effects across the real estate markets. Finally, the spillover framework is able to combine with recent developments in time series econometrics to provide a comprehensive analysis of the dynamic volatility co-movements regionally and globally. The author also examine whether there are volatility spillover regimes, as well as explore the relationship between the volatility spillover cycles and the correlation spillover cycles.
Findings
Results indicate moderate return co-movements and volatility spillover effects within and across the GC region. Cross-market volatility spillovers are bidirectional with the highest spillovers occur during the global financial crisis (GFC) period. Comparatively, the Chinese public property market's volatility is more exogenous and less influenced by other markets. The volatility spillover effects are subject to regime switching with two structural breaks detected for the five sub-groups of markets examined. There is evidence of significant dependence between the volatility spillover cycles across stock and public real estate, due to the presence of unobserved common shocks.
Research limitations/implications
Because international investors incorporate into their portfolio allocation not only the long-term price relationship but also the short-term market volatility interaction and return correlation structure, the results of this study can shed more light on the extent to which investors can benefit from regional and international diversification in the long run and short-term within and across the GC securitized property sector, with Asian emerging market and global developed markets of Japan and USA. Although it is beyond the scope of this paper, it would be interesting to examine how the two co-movement measures (volatility spillovers and correlation spillovers) can be combined in optimal covariance forecasting in global investing that includes stock and public real estate markets.
Originality/value
This is one of very few papers that comprehensively analyze the dynamic return correlations and conditional volatility spillover effects among the three GC public property markets, as well as with their selected emerging and developed partners over the last decade and during the GFC period, which is the main contribution of the study. The specific contribution is to characterize and measure cross-public real estate market volatility transmission in asset pricing through estimates of several conditional “volatility spillover” indices. In this case, a volatility spillover index is defined as share of total return variability in one public real estate market attributable to volatility surprises in another public real estate market.
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Amanjot Singh and Manjit Singh
This paper aims to attempt to re-capture the stock market contagion effect from the US to the BRIC equity markets during the recent global financial crisis in a multivariate…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to attempt to re-capture the stock market contagion effect from the US to the BRIC equity markets during the recent global financial crisis in a multivariate framework. Apart from this, the study also identifies optimal portfolio hedging strategies to minimize the underlying portfolio risk during the period undertaken for the purpose of study.
Design/methodology/approach
To account for the dynamic interactions, the study uses vector autoregression (p) dynamic conditional correlation (DCC)-asymmetric generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (1,1) model in a multivariate framework, coupled with a monthly heat map relating to the co-movement between the US and the BRIC equity markets during the period 2007-2009. Finally, by following the studies, Hammoudeh et al. (2010) and Syriopoulos et al. (2015), the time-varying optimal portfolio hedge ratios and weights are computed.
Findings
The results report a contagion impact of the US subprime crisis (following the collapse of the Lehman Brothers) on the Indian and Russian stock markets only. On the other hand, a higher degree of interdependence between the US and Brazilian market has been observed. The US and Chinese equity markets indicate a relatively lower level of interdependence among themselves. The optimal hedge ratios are found to be most effective for a portfolio comprising the US and Chinese stocks even during the crisis period. A US investor should invest approximately 30 cents in the Indian market and rest of the 70 cents in the US market in a US$1 portfolio to minimize the portfolio risk without lowering the expected returns. During the crisis period (2007-2009), the optimal portfolio weights indicate a higher weightage to the BRIC stocks.
Practical implications
The results support the construction of optimal US–BRIC stock portfolios and provide an insight to the investors and policy makers both domestic as well as international, with regard to the contagion impact and interdependence, especially during a crisis period.
Originality/value
The study uses a DCC model in a multivariate framework instead of bivariate, wherein all the markets are factored into a single interaction framework across a very long period (2004-2014). Second, a heat map of monthly correlation combinations has been created for the period 2007-2009, to comprehend the contagion impact or interdependence among the markets. Finally, the study ascertains time-varying optimal hedge ratios and portfolio weights for a two asset portfolio, from a US investor viewpoint, making the study first of its kind in all the perspectives.
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