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1 – 10 of over 3000The purpose of this research is to study the relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and stock market returns of the seven highest economic performing emerging countries…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this research is to study the relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and stock market returns of the seven highest economic performing emerging countries (E7).
Design/methodology/approach
The study is conducted using the daily data for exchange rates and stock market returns in each of the E7 countries from January 1, 2019, to January 1, 2022. The study employs the ordinary least squares, autoregressive distributed lag error correction regression and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH (1,1)) regression models to fully investigate the impact of exchange rate on stock markets. For further investigation, the GARCH (1,1) model is run twice for each country with and without the inclusion of exchange rate to determine its effect on the volatility of stock returns.
Findings
The findings support the presence of cointegration relationship between the variables for all countries. The results reveal significant positive long-run relationship between exchange rates and stock market returns in all countries except for Indonesia, which evidenced a significant negative impact. The results of the GARCH (1,1) add that the inclusion of exchange rate in the model accounts for a slight change in the volatility of stock returns.
Originality/value
The research provides empirical evidence that appreciating currencies are perceived positively by investors leading to better performing capital markets. The outcomes of this study may assist policy makers in understanding to what degree changes in exchange rates can influence capital markets, as well as narrow the gap in literature regarding which theory is more relevant in explaining how exchange rate fluctuations impact market values.
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The study examines the impact of real exchange rates and asymmetric real exchange rates on real stock prices in Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Korea, Japan, the United…
Abstract
Purpose
The study examines the impact of real exchange rates and asymmetric real exchange rates on real stock prices in Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Korea, Japan, the United Kingdom (UK), Germany, Hong Kong and Indonesia.
Design/methodology/approach
This study uses the asymmetric autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach and non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) approach.
Findings
The asymmetric ARDL approach shows more economic variables are found to be statistically significant than the ARDL approach. The asymmetric real exchange rate is mostly found to have a significant impact on the real stock price. Moreover, real output and real interest rates are found to have a significant impact on the real stock price. The Asian financial crisis (1997–1998) and the global financial crisis (2008–2009) are found to have a significant impact on the real stock price in some economies.
Research limitations/implications
Economic variables are important in the determination of stock prices.
Originality/value
It is important to examine the impact of asymmetric real exchange rate on the real stock price as the depreciation of real exchange rate could have different impacts than the appreciation of real exchange rate on the real stock price. The previous studies in the literature mostly found the significant impact of nominal exchange rate on the nominal stock price.
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Mourad Mroua and Lotfi Trabelsi
This paper aims to investigate simultaneously the causality and the dynamic links between exchange rates and stock market indices. It attempts to identify the short- and long-term…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to investigate simultaneously the causality and the dynamic links between exchange rates and stock market indices. It attempts to identify the short- and long-term effect of the US dollar on major stock market indices of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South-Africa (BRICS) nations.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper applies a new methodology combining the panel generalized method of moments model and the panel auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) method to investigate the existence of a causal short-/long-run relationships and dynamic dependence among all stock market returns and exchanges rates changes of BRICS countries.
Findings
Results show that exchange rate changes have a significant effect on the past and the current volatility of the BRICS stock indices. Besides, ARDL estimations reveal that exchange rate movements have a significant effect on short- and long-term stocks market indices of all BRICS countries
Originality/value
The findings have implications for policymakers and market participants who try to manage the exchange rate will have a different dose of intervention if they know that the effects of currency depreciation are different than appreciation. These results have important implications that investors should take into account in frequency-varying exchange rates and stock returns and regulators should consider developing sound policy measures to prevent financial risk.
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Faisal Abduleh Salman Irag Al-Najaf, Mahdi Salehi and Hind Shafeeq Nimr Al-Maliki
The present study aims to examine the effects of the Islamic sacred months, namely, Muḥarram, Rajab, Dhu al-Qaʿdah and Dhu al-Ḥijjah, on stock prices on the Iran and Iraq Stock…
Abstract
Purpose
The present study aims to examine the effects of the Islamic sacred months, namely, Muḥarram, Rajab, Dhu al-Qaʿdah and Dhu al-Ḥijjah, on stock prices on the Iran and Iraq Stock Exchanges.
Design/methodology/approach
Using the infrastructure models of the capital market, the daily stock prices were calculated for the sacred and non-sacred months. As the data of this study are non-stationary, the AMIRA time-series model was used for better understanding of the model or future projections. The dependent variables of this study are the daily stock indexes for Iranian and Iraqi Stock Exchanges, and independent ones are the sacred and non-sacred months of a lunar year. Data were gathered daily from the financial statements of Iranian and Iraqi Stock Exchanges websites. To test the hypotheses under study, a five-year period from 2012 to 2016 was considered for both Iraqi and Iranian Stock Exchanges, which corresponds with the lunar calendar from 1433-1437AH.
Findings
The obtained results indicated that there is no significant difference in stock prices between the sacred months of Muḥarram, Rajab, Dhu al-Qaʿdah and Dhu al-Ḥijjah and other non-sacred months. However, the stock price in the Iranian Stock Exchange has a significant difference in Rajab and Dhu al-Qaʿdah with other non-sacred months.
Originality/value
The results of this study will reveal more than ever the role of Islamic sacred months for society and users of financial statements to make better financial decisions especially in Islamic emerging markets.
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Lumengo Bonga-Bonga and Salifya Mpoha
This paper contributes to the literature on exchange rate exposure by assessing the extent to which exchange rate risk is priced in both African emerging and developed equity…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper contributes to the literature on exchange rate exposure by assessing the extent to which exchange rate risk is priced in both African emerging and developed equity markets. It examines whether this risk leads to a premium or discount in market returns. The study uses the United States and South Africa as representatives for developed and emerging economies, respectively.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper employs two-factor and three-factor conditional CAPM approaches with a two-stage estimation process. In the first stage, time-varying risk exposures are derived using the ICAPM model estimated through rolling regression. In the second stage, the impact of these risk exposures, particularly exchange rate risk exposure, is assessed on stock market returns using Generalized Linear Model (GLM) regression.
Findings
Unlike previous studies that suggest exchange rate risk is not necessarily priced in the equity market due to hedging, this paper finds that exchange rate risk is indeed priced in both African and developed equity markets, albeit to different extents. The African equity market demands a higher premium compared to the developed equity market.
Practical implications
The findings of this paper have significant implications for policymakers, asset managers, and investors. They provide insights for making more informed decisions, implementing effective risk management strategies, and fostering a more stable and appealing investment environment.
Originality/value
To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to evaluate the degree of exchange rate exposure in environments characterized by high currency volatility versus those with low volatility, all within the context of the conditional ICAPM model.
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Billy Prananta and Constantinos Alexiou
The authors explore the relationship between the exchange rate, bond yield and the stock market as well as the effect of capital market dynamics on the exchange rate before and…
Abstract
Purpose
The authors explore the relationship between the exchange rate, bond yield and the stock market as well as the effect of capital market dynamics on the exchange rate before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors employ a non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) methodology using daily data of the Indonesian economy over the period 2012–2021.
Findings
Whilst, over the full sample period, the authors find no cointegration between the exchange rate, the 10-year bond yield and stock market, for the COVID-19 period, evidence of cointegration is present. Furthermore, the results suggest that asymmetric effects are evident both in the short as well as the long run.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first time that the relationship between the exchange rate, bond yield and the stock market as well as the effect of capital market dynamics on the exchange rate before and during the COVID-19 pandemic has been explored in the case of the Indonesian economy.
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Mohammed Talawa and Nemer Badwan
This paper uses test panel data for the biggest companies listed on the boards of directors of the Palestine Stock Exchange from 2016 to 2022 and will focus on the relationship…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper uses test panel data for the biggest companies listed on the boards of directors of the Palestine Stock Exchange from 2016 to 2022 and will focus on the relationship between the corporate governance index, accounting conservatism, and the comprehensive index of corporate governance.
Design/methodology/approach
The relationship between corporate governance and accounting conservatism is experimentally investigated for its impact on the likelihood of stock price breakdown and decline among companies listed on the Palestine Stock Exchange between 2016 and 2022, using a mixed utilities approach.
Findings
The findings demonstrated the adverse correlation between corporate governance, accounting conservatism, and stock prices. Higher levels of corporate governance can effectively reduce the likelihood of future stock price increases, while conservative accounting policies can effectively prevent stock price collapses in these listed companies. Higher levels of corporate governance can greatly lessen the detrimental effect of accounting conservatism on the likelihood of future stock price breakdowns and declines. Both accounting conservatism and corporate governance have substitution effects in decreasing the danger of stock price collapse.
Research limitations/implications
The limitations of the current research are that higher levels of corporate governance can significantly reduce the harmful effect of accounting conservatism on the probability of stock price breakdown and decline in the future on the study sample used, and these results cannot be generalized to all company stocks that were excluded in this study. The last research limitation is that the sample size of this study is somewhat small, and therefore the effects of the results cannot be used on all unlisted companies, and they cannot be generalized to all of these companies except only to companies listed on the Palestine Stock Exchange.
Practical implications
Our findings have interesting managerial and policy implications. Listed firms should first strengthen external audit oversight, improve the method of disclosing accounting information, and improve the system architecture to raise the level of accounting conservatism. Moreover, it is imperative to enhance and improve the ownership structure of publicly traded firms, construct a robust mechanism for replacing shareholders, fortify the duties of the board of directors, proficiently fulfil the role of independent directors, and develop and refine the internal and external framework for corporate governance.
Originality/value
This study provides insights about reducing the probability of a stock market breakdown and collapse from two sides: enhancing corporate governance, improving accounting conservatism, enhancing the reliability and integrity of disclosure, and growing the number of sustainable disclosures. These suggestions can also be used as a template for Palestine's capital market's gradual and sustainable expansion.
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This study aims to extend the literature by extensively investigating the impact of foreign exchange and interest rate changes on the returns and volatility of bank stocks in…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to extend the literature by extensively investigating the impact of foreign exchange and interest rate changes on the returns and volatility of bank stocks in Saudi Arabia, which is the largest dual banking industry.
Design/methodology/approach
This study employs the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model on stock returns of four fully Islamic Saudi banks and eight conventional Saudi banks.
Findings
The results showed that the foreign exchange rate return has a positive impact on Saudi conventional bank returns, while it has an adverse impact on Saudi Islamic bank returns. Moreover, a higher interest rate return has a positive impact on Saudi bank stock returns implying that the assets side is more sensitive to changes in interest rates than the liability side. Finally, higher foreign exchange and interest rates volatility increases the volatility of Saudi bank returns, where the former has the largest significant impact. Therefore, Saudi regulators should pay more attention to the risk management of their banks because this could threaten the stability of their financial system.
Originality/value
To the best knowledge of the author, this is the first study that tries to extensively analyze the joint impact of foreign exchange and interest rates on bank stock returns and volatility in Saudi Arabia by applying the GARCH model. The study uses a long data set from 2010 to 2019 that includes all Saudi banks and employs four measures of interest rates to increase the robustness of the results.
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Silvio John Camilleri and Francelle Galea
The purpose of this paper is to obtain new empirical evidence about the connections between equity trading activity and five possible liquidity determinants: market…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to obtain new empirical evidence about the connections between equity trading activity and five possible liquidity determinants: market capitalisation, dividend yield, earnings yield, company growth and the distinction between recently listed firms as opposed to more established ones.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors use a sample of 172 stocks from four European markets and estimate models using the entire sample data and different sub-samples to check the relative importance of the above determinants. The authors also conduct a factor analysis to re-classify the variables into a more succinct framework.
Findings
The evidence suggests that market capitalisation is the most important trading activity determinant, and the number of years listed ranks thereafter.
Research limitations/implications
The positive relation between trading activity and market capitalisation is in line with prior literature, while the findings relating to the other determinants offer further empirical evidence which is a worthy addition in view of the contradictory results in prior research.
Practical implications
This study is of relevance to practitioners who would like to understand the cross-sectional variation in stock liquidity at a more detailed level.
Originality/value
The originality of the paper rests on two important grounds: the authors focus on trading turnover rather than on other liquidity proxies, since the former is accepted as an important determinant of the liquidity-generation process, and the authors adopt a rigorous approach towards checking the robustness of the results by considering various sub-sample configurations.
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Bhaskar Bagchi, Dhrubaranjan Dandapat and Susmita Chatterjee