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1 – 10 of over 8000The past century and a quarter can be divided into three successive eras for homeownership policy characterization. For the first four decades, the federal government pursued a…
Abstract
Purpose
The past century and a quarter can be divided into three successive eras for homeownership policy characterization. For the first four decades, the federal government pursued a laissez-faire policy that left housing issues to the individual states and private markets. For the next six decades, the federal government implemented a policy created as part of the Roosevelt New Deal program. Finally, the Clinton administration discarded the New Deal policy in favor of a more aggressive policy that has continued to the present day. The purpose of this study is to compare the performance of the respective policies.
Design/methodology/approach
The study introduces two metrics. The first metric, based on government homeownership rate data, enables comparison of the laissez-faire and New Deal policies. The second metric, based on financial frictions in the mortgage market, enables comparison of the New Deal and Clinton policies.
Findings
Analysis based on the first metric suggests the New Deal policy was successful in meeting its macroeconomic objectives and was more effective overall than the laissez-faire policy. Analysis based on the second metric suggests the New Deal policy was also more successful in both respects than the Clinton policy.
Practical implications
The findings suggest that the Clinton homeownership policy was the primary driver behind the recent US housing crisis and that vulnerability in the secondary mortgage market created by the Clinton policy represents systemic housing market risk.
Originality/value
The study introduces simple analytical tools to address problems related to systemic risk in the US housing and housing finance markets due to homeownership policy.
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André Filipe Zago de Azevedo and Paulo Renato Soares Terra
This paper sets out to argue that, due to a stable set of economic policies over the past decade, today Brazil is much more resilient to international financial crises than in the…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper sets out to argue that, due to a stable set of economic policies over the past decade, today Brazil is much more resilient to international financial crises than in the 1990s.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper presents preliminary macroeconomic data in a country case study.
Findings
The paper concludes that the initial impact of the current international financial crisis on Brazil has been much less severe than similar crisis episodes in the past.
Research limitations/implications
Given that the crisis is still unfolding, the paper presents only preliminary data regarding its impact on emerging markets.
Practical implications
The paper suggests that emerging markets should adopt flexible exchange rate regimes and stable macroeconomic policies as a means to reduce their exposure to international shocks.
Originality/value
The paper makes an initial diagnosis regarding the impact of the international financial crisis on emerging markets that have adopted sensible economic policies, and is of interest to scholars, business people, and policymakers in developed and emerging countries.
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Willem F.C. Verschoor and Aline Muller
This paper aims to increase understanding of the (time‐varying) relationship between exchange rates and stock prices at the individual firm level. Rather than analyzing the impact…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to increase understanding of the (time‐varying) relationship between exchange rates and stock prices at the individual firm level. Rather than analyzing the impact of exchange rate movements on firm value by regressing multinationals’ stock returns on exchange rate changes, it is proposed to examine the impact of increased exchange rate variability on the stock return volatility of US multinationals by focusing on the 1997 Asian financial turmoil.
Design/methodology/approach
In a first step, it is investigated whether the enhanced uncertainty about the future performance of US multinationals active in Asia resulted in an increased stock return variability. The second step separates the impact of increased exchange rate variability on the stock return volatility of US multinationals into systematic and diversifiable risk.
Findings
It is found that the stock return variability of US multinationals increases significantly in the aftermath of the financial turmoil. In conjunction with this increase in total volatility, there is also an increase in market risk (beta) for US multinationals. Moreover, trade‐ and service‐oriented industries appear to be particularly sensitive to these changing exchange rate conditions.
Practical implications
If the additional risk imparted to exposed firms from increased exchange rate variability is systematic in nature, it will affect the required rate of (equity) return (i.e. investors demand higher returns for holding the firm's shares). Consequently, this effect of exchange rate fluctuations increases the cost of (equity) capital for US multinationals with real foreign operations in the crisis countries.
Originality/value
This paper demonstrates the impact of increased exchange risk on stock return volatility and market risk.
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Swarna D. Dutt and Dipak Ghosh
We examine the stability of exchange rates among the members of the European Monetary System (EMS), using the Johansen‐Juselius multivariate cointegration (systems) analysis. The…
Abstract
We examine the stability of exchange rates among the members of the European Monetary System (EMS), using the Johansen‐Juselius multivariate cointegration (systems) analysis. The direct implication from cointegration theory is that exchange rate stability vis a vis EMS member countries has been achieved. This allows us to study the speed of convergence of different currencies towards the equilibrium path.
Harpreet Singh Grewal and Pushpa Trivedi
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of the US unconventional monetary policy surprises on the management of trilemma in India.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of the US unconventional monetary policy surprises on the management of trilemma in India.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper uses the event study approach along with OLS and MANOVA to examine the impact.
Findings
The results validate the existence of trilemma in India for the period from October 2008 to December 2017. The results also show that monetary policy independence still exists in India in the wake of greater spillover effects during the Federal Open Market Committee announcement days. The spillover effects on USD-INR exchange rates and capital flows are found to be statistically significant. The MANOVA results show that the trilemma in India is influenced by around 20% by the changes in the US monetary policy.
Originality/value
The above approach of event study combined with MANOVA in this subject area has not been used before to the best of the authors’ knowledge. Further, there are only a few studies that exist on the spillover effects of the US monetary policy actions on the management of trilemma in India.
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Amanjot Singh and Manjit Singh
The authors aim to report empirical linkages between the US and Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) financial stress indices catalyzing catalyzing dependent economic policy…
Abstract
Purpose
The authors aim to report empirical linkages between the US and Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) financial stress indices catalyzing catalyzing dependent economic policy initiatives (an extended version of Singh and Singh, 2017a).
Design/methodology/approach
Initially, the study develops financial stress indices for the respective BRIC financial markets. Later, it captures linkages among the said US-BRIC indices by using Johansen cointegration, vector autoregression/vector error correction models (VECM), generalized impulse response functions, Toda–Yamamoto Granger causality, variance decomposition analyses and bivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model under constant conditional correlation framework, in general. Markov regime switching and efficient causality tests proposed by Hill (2007) are also used.
Findings
Overall, there are both short-run and long-run dynamic interactions observed between the US and Indian financial stress indices. For rest of the markets, only short-run interactions are found to be in existence. The time-varying co-movement coefficients report financial contagion impact of the US financial crisis on Russian and Indian financial systems only. Contrary to this, Brazilian and Chinese financial systems are largely exhibiting interdependence with the US financial system. Efficient causality tests report indirect impact of the Russian financial system on Brazilian via auxiliary Indian financial system.
Originality/value
The present study is the first of its kind capturing linkages among the US-BRIC financial stress indices by using diverse econometric models. The results support different market participants and policymakers in understanding effectiveness and implementation of economic policies while considering their cross-market interactions as well.
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The purpose of this paper is to examine the causal relationships between stock prices and macroeconomic variables in Sri Lanka, in order to examine the validity of the semi‐strong…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to examine the causal relationships between stock prices and macroeconomic variables in Sri Lanka, in order to examine the validity of the semi‐strong form of the efficient market hypothesis.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper adopts unit roots and cointegration, error‐correction modelling, variance decomposition analysis, and impulse responses analysis to examine the causal relationship between six macroeconomic variables.
Findings
The results indicate that there are both short and long‐run causal relationships between stock prices and macroeconomic variables. These findings refute the validity of the semi‐strong version of the efficient market hypothesis for the Sri Lankan share market and have implications for investors, both domestic and international.
Originality/value
The paper addresses several methodological weaknesses in relation to unit root and cointegration tests which previous studies in the area of the paper have overlooked. Further, it uses more variables than those used in a previous study using Sri Lankan data.
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Yin-Wong Cheung, Vikas Kakkar and Guonan Ma
Asia's economic integration into the global system has many dimensions. It is part of the broader globalization process that has taken place over the past two decades and involves…
Abstract
Asia's economic integration into the global system has many dimensions. It is part of the broader globalization process that has taken place over the past two decades and involves dynamics of convergence, integration, and interactions of both real and financial activities. Section 1 examines some of the recent trends in the real and financial interactions between Asia and the rest of the world and among different markets within Asia. It contains four chapters on this theme, addressing the issues of macroeconomic similarities and differences, interactions among Asian stock markets and between them and the US equity market, as well as spillovers across various types of financial markets in the region in response to shocks.