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1 – 10 of over 9000Ming-Yang Li, Zong-Hao Jiang and Lei Wang
The purpose of the study is to investigate and analyze the dynamics of the government-enterprise grain joint storage mechanism, particularly, focusing on profit-driven speculative…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of the study is to investigate and analyze the dynamics of the government-enterprise grain joint storage mechanism, particularly, focusing on profit-driven speculative behaviors exhibited by enterprises within this context. The study aims to understand the various factors influencing the behavior of stakeholders involved in grain storage, including government storage departments, agent storage enterprises and quality inspection agencies.
Design/methodology/approach
The study employs a tripartite evolutionary game model to investigate profit-driven behaviors in government-enterprise grain joint storage. It analyzes strategies of government departments, storage enterprises and quality inspection agencies, considering factors like supervision costs and speculative risks. Simulation analysis examines tripartite payoffs, initial probabilities and the impact of digital governance levels to enhance emergency grain storage effectiveness.
Findings
The study finds that leveraging digital governance tools in government-enterprise grain joint storage mechanisms can mitigate risks, enhance efficiency and ensure the security of grain storage. It highlights the significant impact of supervision costs, speculative risks and digital supervision levels on stakeholder strategies, offering guidance to improve the effectiveness of emergency grain storage systems.
Originality/value
The originality of this study lies in its integration of digital governance tools into the analysis of the government-enterprise grain joint storage mechanism, addressing profit-driven speculative behaviors. Through a tripartite evolutionary game model, it explores stakeholder strategies, emphasizing the impact of digital supervision levels on outcomes and offering insights crucial for enhancing emergency grain storage effectiveness.
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This chapter presents several approaches for identifying and dating the speculative bubble on real estate market. Using the real estate price index (IPAI), statistical and…
Abstract
This chapter presents several approaches for identifying and dating the speculative bubble on real estate market. Using the real estate price index (IPAI), statistical and structural approaches were combined in order to detect the existence of a bubble on the Moroccan real estate market. The results obtained affirm that the Moroccan real estate market experienced a speculative bubble during the period 2006–2008 explained mainly by the boom of credit during the same period. The use of the Markov switching model affirmed that the speculative bubble on Morocco is cyclic and consequently corroborates the critic formulated by Evans (1991) concerning the traditional approaches for the detection of financial bubbles. Thus, the analysis of the series of the bubble, extracted using the Kalman filter, affirms the existence of two regimes, namely an explosive regime and a normal regime. The first regime describes the periods of explosion of the bubble and lasts for about 9 quarters, while the second, lasting for 14 quarters, describes the periods of return to the average cycle.
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Alexandra Thrall, T. Philip Nichols and Kevin R. Magill
The purpose of this study is to examine how young people imagine civic futures through speculative fiction writing about artificial intelligence (AI) technologies. The authors…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to examine how young people imagine civic futures through speculative fiction writing about artificial intelligence (AI) technologies. The authors argue that young people’s speculative fiction writing about AI not only helps make visible the ways they imagine the impacts of emerging technologies and the modes of collective action available for leveraging, resisting or countering them but also the frictions and fissures between the two.
Design/methodology/approach
This practitioner research study used data from student artifacts (speculative fiction stories, prewriting and relevant unit work) as well as classroom fieldnotes. The authors used inductive coding to identify emergent patterns in the ways young people wrote about AI and civics, as well as deductive coding using digital civic ecologies framework.
Findings
The findings of this study spotlight both the breadth of intractable civic concerns that young people associate with AI, as well as the limitations of the civic frameworks for imagining political interventions to these challenges. Importantly, they also indicate that the process of speculative writing itself can help reconcile this disjuncture by opening space to dwell in, rather than resolve, the tensions between “the speculative” and the “civic.”
Practical implications
Teachers might use speculative fiction writing and the digital civic ecologies framework to support students in critically examining possible AI futures and effective civic actions within them.
Originality/value
Speculative fiction writing offers an avenue for students to analyze the growing civic concerns posed by emerging platform technologies like AI.
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Leo H. Chan, Chi M. Nguyen and Kam C. Chan
In this chapter, we apply the new measure of speculative activities (hereafter, named the speculative ratio) in Chan, Nguyen, and Chan (2013) to study the relationship between…
Abstract
In this chapter, we apply the new measure of speculative activities (hereafter, named the speculative ratio) in Chan, Nguyen, and Chan (2013) to study the relationship between those activities and volatility in the oil futures market. We document that the speculative ratio (trading volume divided by open interest) can isolate speculative elements from total trading activities. Using the oil futures data and dividing the data into two subperiods surrounding Hurricane Katrina, we find an increased speculative trades in the post-Hurricane Katrina period. Our results show that speculative activities create a more volatile oil futures market and they lower the information flow between volatility and speculative activities in the post-Hurricane Katrina period.
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The purpose of this paper is to propose predictive models of speculative revaluation attacks, which would facilitate currency risk hedging in emerging and developed countries.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to propose predictive models of speculative revaluation attacks, which would facilitate currency risk hedging in emerging and developed countries.
Design/methodology/approach
The purpose of this paper is achieved using the methodology of multiple triangulation. Paper combines different theoretical perspectives (three generations of speculative attack models), two sources of data (emerging countries and developed countries) and three methods (logit regression, probit regression and artificial neural networks, ANN) for identification of leading indicators and forecasting of speculative attacks. Combination of multiple observations (data), underlying theories and methods allowed achieving least biased results.
Findings
A list of leading indicators of speculative revaluation attacks was generated based on previous researches and three generations of speculative attacks' models. Qualitative and quantitative differences of speculative revaluation attacks in emerging and developed countries were identified. The decision matrix of currency risk hedging in the context of speculative devaluation and revaluation attacks was proposed.
Research limitations/implications
Although the sample of this researcher includes a wide range of countries (65 in total), their separation into developed and emerging countries is arbitrary (in the course of 35 years some countries have changed the status from emerging towards developed). The initial list of leading indicators is limited, includes mostly economic variables. It could be improved by encompassing political variables, credit ratings, consumer and business confidence indices.
Practical implications
Developed predictive models of speculative revaluation attacks may significantly reduce important element of risk – uncertainty – and, consequently, the cost of financial hedging.
Originality/value
This paper is one of the first public attempts to apply alternative methodology of ANN for forecasting speculative attacks. The results showed that latter method is more accurate than probit and logit regressions. Also, to the author's best knowledge, this is a first public attempt to separately analyse the phenomenon of speculative revaluation attacks.
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Andrzej Jordan, Jarosław Forenc and Marek Tudruj
To present a new parallel method for solving differential equations that describe transient states in physical systems.
Abstract
Purpose
To present a new parallel method for solving differential equations that describe transient states in physical systems.
Design/methodology/approach
The proposed speculative method first solves a differential equation with a large integration step to determine initial data for parallel computations in sub‐intervals of time, then speculatively computes in parallel solutions in all the sub‐intervals with a smaller integration step and finally composes the final solution from the speculatively computed ones. The basic numerical method applied is the well‐known Runge‐Kutta algorithm.
Findings
The speculative method allows important reduction of the computation time of sequential algorithms. The speed‐up of the speculative method that we propose, as compared to the sequential execution, depends on the number of sub‐intervals that are defined inside the total analysed time interval. The speed‐up increases almost linearly with the number of sub‐intervals. The good accuracy of computations in the presented example was obtained.
Research limitations/implications
The proposed method can be applied to non‐linear systems without discontinuity points and to stable systems (i.e. systems insensitive to the selection of initial conditions).
Practical implications
The method can be especially applied for long‐lasting computations with a slow convergence of state variables values along with the decrease of integration steps.
Originality/value
The paper presents an original parallel method for solving differential equations, which significantly speeds up transient states analysis in physical systems.
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The purpose of this paper is to examine users’ decision-making mechanism of speculative investment behavior and its sequential consequences in the Bitcoin context from a…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to examine users’ decision-making mechanism of speculative investment behavior and its sequential consequences in the Bitcoin context from a dual-systems perspective.
Design/methodology/approach
Original data were collected via a survey of 334 participants with experience in Bitcoin speculative investment. The partial least squares method was used to test the proposed model.
Findings
Speculative investment behavior in the Bitcoin context is driven by strong impulse and weak self-control, leading to negative consequences. The extent of the imbalance between the two cognitive systems is greater with the subjective norm than without it, thus facilitating speculative investment behavior. Noteworthy differences in the impulse and self-control effects on Bitcoin speculative investment are found with differences in Bitcoin objective and subjective knowledge.
Originality/value
This study is the first attempt to empirically investigate users’ decision-making mechanism used when speculating in Bitcoin.
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The purpose of this paper is to study the effect of different parts (predictable and impact) of different types of speculative behavior (intraday speculation, medium-term…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to study the effect of different parts (predictable and impact) of different types of speculative behavior (intraday speculation, medium-term speculation and long-term speculation) on future fluctuations in the underlying index.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors input information about heterogeneous speculative behavior into the HAR-RV model to study the effect of different parts (predictable and impact) of different types of speculative behavior (intraday speculation, medium-term speculation and long-term speculation) on the future fluctuation of the underlying index.
Findings
The authors find that the increase in intraday speculation will exacerbate spot market volatility; and the expected increase of long-term value speculation can reduce market volatility, but the shock of speculation will exacerbate market volatility.
Practical implications
The authors suggest that regulators should strictly limit speculative intraday trading, and also focus on the long-term value speculation that decreases market volatility, in order to guide the benign development of the markets that stabilize abnormal market fluctuations.
Originality/value
First, in view of the correlation between the futures and spot markets, the authors put forward a new proxy for the speculation degree. Second, the authors input heterogeneous speculative behavior into the HAR-RV model to study the effects of different parts (predictable and impact) on different types of speculative behavior (intraday speculation, medium-term speculation and long-term speculation) on the future fluctuation of the underlying index.
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This paper aims to demonstrate how Alayah, a 16-year-old African American girl, leverages multiple expressive modes for intersectional self-representation as speculative design…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to demonstrate how Alayah, a 16-year-old African American girl, leverages multiple expressive modes for intersectional self-representation as speculative design. Here, speculative design refers to a multimodal composition (i.e. digital collage) which leverages multiple expressive modes for intersectional self-celebration in possible futures.
Design/methodology/approach
Informed by intersectional multimodal literacy frameworks and analyses, this paper addresses the question, “How does Alayah represent her college and career futures in her speculative multimodal design? To address this question, the author analyzed Alayah's digital collage using an intersectional multimodal analysis template complemented by a thematic analysis of her interview data and the narrated explanation of her collage.
Findings
In a speculative design composed of 15 images and words, Alayah agentively determined and critically celebrated her intersectional college and career futures through four interrelated themes: Black girl affirmation; Collegiate success; “Sweet” work; and Black livingness.
Originality/value
By centering Black girls’ speculative multimodal designs in college and career curricula, ELA educators (re)imagine college and career pedagogies to critically celebrate Black adolescent girls as intelligent, empowered and literate young women worthy of the futures that they desire.
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This paper aims to present a simple behavioural explanation of the prohibition of speculation in Islamic finance.
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to present a simple behavioural explanation of the prohibition of speculation in Islamic finance.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper proposes a theoretical model that describes how investors from low income strata of the society may be prone to make sub-optimal decisions when they compare their outcome from a speculative trading activity to that of the counterparty to the trade and perceive inequity to exist.
Findings
When individuals from low income strata of the society compare their current situation with the average income of the society, they perceive themselves to be in a loss. This creates a loss frame within which they then evaluate all future outcomes. When such individuals invest in speculative trading activities and incur a loss, they compare their outcome from the trade to that of the counterparty to the trade. As speculative trades are a zero sum game, the counterparty makes an equivalent gain from the trade. Thus, the comparison leads to a perception of inequity. This perception of inequity is aggravated by the loss frame within which the investor is operating. The aggravated inequity aversion may then motivate the investor to make further sub-optimal decisions like repeated speculative trading activities. The Islamic prohibition on speculative trading activities may serve to protect low income investors from entering into such cycles of sub-optimal decisions.
Originality/value
This paper offers a unique explanation of why day trading and short selling may be prohibited in Islamic capital markets.
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