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This paper aims to assess the effects of housing market shocks on real output in South Africa, by focusing on the real private consumption channel.

It measures housing market shocks as non-monetary housing shocks, uses a data set covering the period 1969Q4-2014Q4 and uses the agnostic identification procedure.

The paper finds that 20 per cent of the variation in house prices is explained by these shocks. The paper also finds that the effects of housing demand shocks on real private consumption are short-lived and generate a transitory real output response. Overall, housing demand shocks have managed to explain nearly 13 per cent and 14 per cent of the variation in real private consumption and real output respectively, over 20-quarters ahead forecast revision.

This finding suggests that shocks emanating from the housing market in the country are essential and should be considered when making macroeconomic policy decisions.

None of the existing studies, to our knowledge, have empirically assessed the effects of housing market shocks on real output directly. This paper attempts to contribute to the literature by assessing the direct impact of housing market shocks on the real output, using South Africa as a case study.

This article provides an overview of the panel vector autoregressive models (VAR) used in macroeconomics and finance to study the dynamic relationships between heterogeneous assets, households, firms, sectors, and countries. We discuss what their distinctive features are, what they are used for, and how they can be derived from economic theory. We also describe how they are estimated and how shock identification is performed. We compare panel VAR models to other approaches used in the literature to estimate dynamic models involving heterogeneous units. Finally, we show how structural time variation can be dealt with.

The purpose of this paper is to study a nascent theory and an emerging concept of solving a fully fuzzy linear system (FFLS) with no non negative restrictions on the triangular fuzzy numbers chosen as parameters. Two new simplified computational methods are proposed to solve a FFLS without any sign restrictions. The first method eliminates the non‐negativity constraint from the coefficient matrix while the second method eliminates the constraint of non‐negativity on the solution vector. The methods are introduced with an objective to broaden the domain of fuzzy linear systems to encompass a wide range of problems occurring in reality.

The design of numerical methods is motivated by decomposing the fuzzy based linear system into its equivalent crisp linear form which can be further solved by variety of classical methods to solve a crisp linear system. Further the paper investigates Schur complement technique to solve the crisp equivalent of the FFLS.

The results that are obtained reveal interesting properties of a FFLS. By using the proposed methods, the authors are able to check the consistency of the fuzzy linear system as well as obtain the nature of obtained solutions, i.e. trivial, unique or infinite. Further it is also seen that an n×n FFLS may yield finitely many solutions which may not be entirely feasible (strong). Also the methods successfully remove the non‐negativity restriction on the coefficient matrix and the solution vector, respectively.

Evolving methods with better computational complexity and that which remove the non‐negativity restriction jointly on all the parameters are left as an open problem.

The proposed methods are new and conceptually simple to understand and apply in several scientific areas where fuzziness persists. The methods successfully remove several constraints that have been employed exhaustively by researchers and thus eventually tend to widen the breadth of applicability and usability of fuzzy linear models in real life situations. Heretofore, the usability of FFLS is largely dormant.

In this chapter, the authors ask two questions: (i) Is the conduct of monetary policy stable across time and similar across major economies? and (ii) Do policy decisions of major central banks have international spillover effects? To address these questions, the authors build on recent semi-parametric advances in time-varying parameter models that allow us to increase the vector autoregressive () dimension and to jointly model three advanced economies (USA, UK and the Euro Area). The main reduced-form finding of this chapter is an increased connectedness between and within countries during the recent financial crisis. In order to study policy spillovers, we jointly identify three economy-specific monetary policy shocks using a combination of sign and magnitude restrictions. The authors find that monetary policy shocks were larger in magnitude and more persistent in the early 1980s than in subsequent periods. The authors also uncover positive spillover effects of policy between countries in the 1980s and diminished, and sometimes negative ‘beggar-thy-neighbour’ effects in the second half of the sample. Moreover, during the 1980s, the authors find evidence for policy coordination between the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank.

This paper aims to better understand if speculative activity is a factor or even the main factor in the run-up of oil prices in the spot market, particularly in the recent price bubble that occurred in the period from mid-2003 to 2008.

The methodology used is based on an existing vector autoregressive model proposed by Kilian and Murphy (2014), which is a structural model of the global market for crude oil that accounts for flow demand and flow supply shocks and speculative demand oil shocks.

From the output of the authors’ structural model, the authors ruled out speculation as a factor of rising oil prices. The authors have found instead that the rapid oil demand caused by an unexpected increase in the global business cycle is the most accurate culprit. Despite the change of perspective in the speculative component, the authors’ conclusions concur with the findings of Kilian and Murphy (2014) and others.

As far as the authors are aware, this is the first time that a study has used as a spread oil variable, a speculative component of the real price, replacing the oil inventories considered by Kilian and Murphy (2014). Another contribution is that the model used allows estimating traditional oil demand elasticity in production and oil supply elasticity in spread movements, casting doubt on existing models with perfect price-inelastic output for crude oil.

Since the appearance of Simon Rottenberg's seminal paper on the baseball players' labour market in the Journal of Political Economy (1956), the literature on the economics of professional team sports has increased rapidly, fuelled by major changes in the restrictive rules which had pervaded these sports, themselves a consequence of battles in the courts and the collective bargaining arena. These changes have not been limited to North America, to which most of the literature relates, but also apply to Western Europe and Australia in particular. This monograph surveys this literature covering those various parts of the world in order to draw out both theoretical and empirical aspects. However, to argue that the existence of what is now an extensive literature “justifies” such a survey on professional team sports clearly begs a number of questions. Justification can be found in at least two major aspects.

We investigate the positive and normative consequences of child-labor restrictions for economic aggregates and welfare. We argue that even though the laissez-faire outcome may be inefficient, there are usually better policies to cure these inefficiencies than the imposition of a child-labor ban. Given this finding, we investigate the potential political-economic reasons behind the emergence and persistence of child-labor legislation. Our investigation is based on a structural dynamic general equilibrium model that provides a coherent and uniform framework for our analysis.