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A popular convention in the political-economy literature is that causality runs from democracy to economic growth. That thinking has continued to evoke significant debates among scholars. This study aims to propose a new research experiment by investigating whether macroeconomic variables cause democratisation.

The study uses a panel data set of 48 carefully selected economies in Sub-Saharan Africa spanning 1991 to 2020 and uses the PVAR system generalised method of moment (GMM) approach.

With the application of three macroeconomic indicators: economic growth, full employment and balance of payment equilibrium, the study suggests that economic growth has a negative implication on the democratisation process and that the incentives that increase national income provide in the global South enable autocratic rulers to impede democratic growth. The Granger causality test demonstrates a unidirectional effect from economic growth to democracy. The eigenvalue stability condition, impulse response function and forecast-error variance decomposition all confirmed the validity of the findings with the PVAR system GMM. Finally, the study proposed policy and theoretical implications for the political stakeholders.

Robust development of economic institutions (particularly the anti-corruption and rule of law) in the global South is required to tame the potential for the state actors to turn public resources into personal use to further their parochial political interest in the form of perpetuating themselves in office which negates the ideals of democracy and social norms. Strong institutions could prevent the misuse of national income and enhance a good quality of life for the citizenry, making them grow confidence in the democratisation process.

The research paper makes an insightful contributions from the methodological perspective and the sampling perspective. The author uses a new research method, the PVAR system GMM becoming the first attempt of such a method to be applied in determining the causal effects of macroeconomic variables on democracy in the literature. Another relevant contribution of the study relates to the sample technique of selecting economies from the Sub-Saharan Africa with notable weak or slow democratisation process.

This study aims to revisit the empirical debate about the asymmetric relationship between oil prices, energy consumption, CO₂ emissions and economic growth in a panel of 184 countries from 1981 to 2020.

A relatively new research method, the PVAR system GMM, is applied.

The outcome of the PVAR system GMM model at the group level in the study suggests that oil prices exert a positive but statistically insignificant effect on economic growth. Energy consumption is inversely related to economic growth but statistically significant, and the correlation between CO₂ emissions and economic growth is negative but statistically insignificant. The Granger causality test indicates that oil prices, CO₂ emissions, oil rents, energy consumption and savings jointly Granger-cause economic growth. A unidirectional causality runs from energy consumption, savings and economic growth to oil prices. At countries’ income grouping levels, oil prices, oil rent, CO₂ emissions, energy consumption and savings jointly Granger-cause economic growth for the high-income and upper-middle-income countries groups only, while those variables did not jointly Granger-cause economic growth for the low-income and lower-middle-income countries groups. The modulus emanating from the eigenvalue stability condition with the roots of the companion matrix indicates that the model is stable. The results support the asymmetric impacts of oil prices on economic growth and aid policy formulation, particularly the cross-country disparities regarding the nexus between oil prices and growth.

From a methodological perspective, to the best of the author’s knowledge, the study is the first attempt to use the PVAR system GMM and such a large sample group of 184 economies in the post-COVID-19 era to examine the impacts of oil prices on countries’ growth while controlling for other crucial variables, which is noteworthy. Two, using the World Bank categorisation of countries according to income groups, the study adds another layer of contribution to the literature by decomposing the 184 sample economies into four income groups: high-income, low-income, upper-middle-income and lower-middle-income groups to investigate the potential for asymmetric effects of oil prices on growth, the first of its kind in the post-COVID-19 period.