Search results

The purpose of the paper is to present the common use of the Delphi method, the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and dynamic fuzzy cognitive maps for the development of a future scenario in correlation with climate warming.

A combination of the Delphi method, the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and dynamic fuzzy cognitive maps was employed to construct a future scenario as a learning device.

Based on the data, the future is not going to be so bad but also not very attractive even if it is assumed that human consciousness about global warming issues will remain high. After a few years or so it will be possible to stop negative climate processes but not possible to fix the problem in the sense that the situation we have now can be substantially improved.

This paper is of interest for foresight practitioners and policy makers who want to employ a hybrid approach to scenario development.

The paper is the first to try to use a combination of different methods for scenario development related to climate change.

The aim of this study is to present a model for service supply chain performance evaluation (SSCPE) based on fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM).

Despite the unique nature of services, which distinguishes them from goods, the performance evaluation of service supply chains (SSCs) has still not received adequate attention from researchers or practitioners. With the help of in-depth interviews conducted with insurance industry experts in Iran, the performance measures of SSCs are defined, and the relevance between the performance measures, which are based upon the knowledge of experts in this field, are presented as a fuzzy cognitive map.

By blocking the aggregate map of experts, a model for SSCPE is developed that discusses performance measures and metrics of strategic, tactical and operational SSC processes, such as service-providing management, service-enabling management, market management, cash-flow management, customer-relationship management, supplier-relationship management, knowledge- and information-flow management and risk management. Indexes of FCM models indicate that the supply chain service quality and strategy blocks have the most importance compared with others.

The paper develops an original SSCPE model that can be used as a basis for SSC improvement and develops an excellence model for SSC.

The 2008 global financial crisis showed that the ability to innovate is a key management skill and that approaches to assessing the innovation capability of small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) need to be as realistic as possible. This study aims to address the latter practical need through a sociotechnical approach.

Based on a combined use of cognitive mapping and the Decision EXpert (DEX) technique, and grounded on the insights generated by a panel of SME managers and entrepreneurs in two intensive group meetings, a knowledge-based assessment system for evaluating SMEs’ innovation capability was created, tested and validated.

The knowledge-based assessment system identified the most innovative SMEs in a sample of companies. The “plus-minus-1” and dominance analyses carried out provided further support for the results.

The proposed system is extremely versatile but process-oriented and idiosyncratic in nature, meaning that extrapolations to other contexts need to be done with due caution.

The panel of SME decision makers agreed that the system improves the current methods used to evaluate SMEs’ innovation capability, contributing to a more informed perspective on management issues. The panel members also noted that the proposed system functions as a learning mechanism, facilitating the development of well-focused suggestions for improvements SMEs can make.

The integrated use of cognitive maps and rule-base decisions contributes to a better understanding of how to assess SMEs’ innovation capability. No prior work reporting the integrated use of these two techniques in this study context has been found.

Because container terminals (CTs) are broker organizations, their interest has complex, various internal and external factors, the purpose of this study is to scrutiny and structure the factors affecting the interests of the CT.

In terms of purpose, this study is a developmental study that, are identified the factors related to the interests of the CT through studying the library and interviewing experts and then the degree of influence of each factor on each other by using the interview with experts of CT in Bushehr province are determined. Then, the fuzzy DEMATEL method is used to calculate the feedback loop of the indicators, and then the matrix obtained Fcmapper software and the fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) is drawn.

According to the FCM analysis, three important factors are centrality identified in terms of attracting capital, quality of service and efficiency. In addition, there are three factors, attracting capital, operator performance and law have high outdegree.

This research has identified 34 effective indicators of CT interests and evaluated their relationship with FCM. In the available researches, all these indicators measurement has not been evaluated together. Furthermore, fuzzy DEMATEL has been used to evaluate self-loops. Another contribution of this research is the introduction of a strategic route as a roadmap for CT managers in Bushehr province to decide on the interests of a CT.

The methods presently used for project stakeholder analysis have typically followed two distinct patterns: (1) a project-centric approach that places a project at the center, and subsequently, concentrates on dyadic relationships between the project and its stakeholders; (2) a network theory-based approach that emphasizes on the interconnections within the network of project stakeholders. The main contention of this study is built upon the premise that neither the sole analysis of dyadic relationships between a project and its stakeholders nor the stand-alone use of the network theory methods is adequate for reliable analysis of stakeholders.

This article proposes a model that bases the salience of stakeholders on their relationships with the project as well as on their interdependencies in the project. In doing so, this work explores the potential of a Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) to provide a comprehensive picture of stakeholder analysis. Using a real-world biodiversity project, this paper analyses the project stakeholders based on their possession of various attributes as well as the extent to which each individual stakeholder influences the entire connected network of all stakeholders.

A salient feature of the proposed FIS model is its ability to provide a high capacity for analyzing the results. The model is able to generate the input–output relationship surface view for stakeholder analysis. Further, unlike the traditional project stakeholder analysis methods that are linear, the proposed model is strongly nonlinear. This implies that change in the input variables of the fuzzy-based model is not expected to lead to a proportional change in the model output.

Two practical implications can be drawn from the presented stakeholder analysis model. First, confronted with mounting pressure to understand the stakeholder environment and to effectively manage stakeholders, project managers need to establish a sound stakeholder management strategy. The stakeholder analysis model developed herein casts a wider net for the critical ranking of stakeholders in a project, thereby providing a more accurate prioritization of the stakeholders. Second, while stakeholders independently require managerial attention, understanding the effect of competing and cooperative stakeholder interactions are unarguably of great importance. The presented model prompts the project managers to recognize not only the influence of key stakeholders on the project but also the interactions of multiple stakeholders within the stakeholder network.

The proposed stakeholder analysis model possesses several desirable features. First, it is not constrained to capturing only stakeholder attributes discussed in the example project provided in this study. The model is flexible and adaptable to all business and management contexts. Second, the stakeholder mapping in the model is not a function of a sole attribute but rather a cumulative effect of multiple stakeholder attributes. In fact, the power of the suggested model lies in its ability to incorporate the three aspects of stakeholder theory into a single model. Third, the presented model builds a quantitative and qualitative picture of the stakeholder salience. The suggested FIS model is capable of processing both qualitative perception of stakeholder attributes and quantitative analysis of the network of stakeholder interactions. This allows for a more comprehensive and synergistic utilization of model inputs.

The purpose of the paper is to bring attention to documentary credits and the efforts to reduce debt obligations in credit history is recognized as an important source of uncommitted bank earnings. Credit risk has a significant impact on the stability of the banking system. This paper identifies the types of credit risk in the banking supply chain.

The authors model the types of credit risk using the intuitive fuzzy failure modes and effects analysis (IFMEA) and intuitive fuzzy cognitive mapping. The population of the study that is needed for the interviews and expert panels comprises senior managers and experts of a leading bank in Iran. The respondents are experienced in credit and banking risk and were selected through judgment sampling and snowballing.

The findings suggest that reducing the risks of the foreign letters of credit contracts can mitigate the risk in the agricultural sector, the specific risks of rent-to-own contracts, the risk of the long-term facilities and the specific risk of the domestic letter of credit contracts.

This research investigates Iran Tejart Bank’s credit risk, formulates a model of the types of credit risk present and analyzes them using the intuitive fuzzy failure modes and effects analysis and intuitive fuzzy cognitive map. Through this credit risk model, one can then facilitate risk management for better financial stability. Also, the model can be used to evaluate the risk indicators.

A recommendation system for an extended process of information retrieval in distributed information systems is proposed. This system is both a model of dynamic cognitive categorization processes and powerful real application useful for knowledge management. It utilizes an extension of fuzzy sets named evidence sets as the mathematical mechanisms to implement the categorization processes. It is a development of some aspects of Pask’s conversation theory. It is also an instance of the notion of linguistic‐based selected self‐organization here described, and as such it instantiates an open‐ended semiosis between distributed information systems and the communities of users they interact with. This means that the knowledge stored in distributed information resources adapts to the evolving semantic expectations of their users as these select the information they desire in conversation with the information resources. This way, this recommendation system establishes a mechanism for user‐driven knowledge self‐organization.

Several different simulation techniques, such as discrete event simulation (DES), system dynamics (SD) and agent-based modelling (ABM), have been used to model complex construction systems such as construction processes and project management practices; however, these techniques do not take into account the subjective uncertainties that exist in many construction systems. Integrating fuzzy logic with simulation techniques enhances the capabilities of those simulation techniques, and the resultant fuzzy simulation models are then capable of handling subjective uncertainties in complex construction systems. The objectives of this chapter are to show how to integrate fuzzy logic and simulation techniques in construction modelling and to provide methodologies for the development of fuzzy simulation models in construction. In this chapter, an overview of simulation techniques that are used in construction is presented. Next, the advancements that have been made by integrating fuzzy logic and simulation techniques are introduced. Methodologies for developing fuzzy simulation models are then proposed. Finally, the process of selecting a suitable simulation technique for each particular aspect of construction modelling is discussed.

This study aims to identify the factors influencing the creation of a toxic workplace and to examine how to improve a toxic workplace in the electronics industry.

First, the factors that influence the creation of a toxic work environment were identified by reviewing the research literature. Then, the current status of each identified factor in Iran’s electronics industry was evaluated by developing a questionnaire. Based on the survey data, a relationship map between the factors influencing the toxic workplace was created using the fuzzy cognitive mapping technique. Finally, scenarios were designed to improve the toxic workplace.

The results show that the “workplace bullying” factor is the factor with the highest centrality in relation to other factors. The results of the scenario design indicate the effectiveness of the “unrealistic expectations at work” factor as a scenario trigger.

This study helps reduce the toxic workplace in the organization, which plays an important role in improving the employees’ work performance and the organization’s development.

Cognitive maps are used in group decision processes to structure problems. The problem structuring methods helps decision makers to improve the comprehension of the problem, identifying alternative actions and conflicts. However, represents the individual perceptions in a representative group decision into a single structure can be a complex task. The paper aims to discuss these issues.

The objective of this paper is to improve the process of discussion, obtaining the interests and views of the participants and provide parameters to assist the analyst to guide the process. Furthermore, it is possible to analyze how participants are aligned or diverge from the group. The literature review presents some approaches for cognitive maps analysis, but there is a lack of structured methods to analyze them. This paper proposes a structure procedure for the aggregation of cognitive maps in three parts: workshop to generate individual maps, the aggregation of individual maps and the refinement of the global map.

An example illustrates the application of the proposed method and shows the construction of a global map that summarizes the concepts that participants consider important.

This paper presents a new procedure that allows reducing the bias of the analyst in the aggregation of individual cognitive maps maintaining the relevant information and allows decision makers know and approve the aggregation procedure.