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Tourism faces a range of interconnected and potentially transformative global risks – collectively considered an evolving polycrisis – that have not been adequately defined and understood. As a result, the industry struggles to proactively anticipate and mitigate potential future challenges, while governments lack insight for strategic longer-term decision-making on tourism development. The purpose of this paper is to advance tourism sector consideration of global change threats and their complex interactions and more effectively incorporate these risks into tourism futures planning.

This conceptual gap is addressed through a discussion of the World Economic Forum’s Global Risk Reports, and their definition of environmental, economic, geopolitical, societal and technological risk categories. In applying results to tourism, a preliminary expert assessment of global risks serves as a foundational framework to incorporate potential global change threats more effectively into tourism futures planning and decision-making.

Additional research should be prioritized to examine global risks most influential of tourism, how and where they may interact, how to convert risk categories into measurable indicators and to evaluate whether risk assessments can contribute to mitigating the evolving polycrisis.

This paper discusses the systematic and strategic engagement with global risks for tourism, critically reviews the World Economic Forum’s Global Risk Reports from tourism perspective, presents key risk dimensions driving future tourism development, provides a foundational framework to further assess global risk for tourism and compels tourism academy to prioritize global change research agenda.

旅游业面临一系列相互关联并且具有潜在变革性的全球风险——这些风险被统称为不断演变的多重危机——尚未得到充分定义和理解。因此, 行业难以主动积极预测和应对未来的挑战, 而政府在旅游发展中的长期战略决策上也缺乏洞见。

本文通过讨论世界经济论坛的《全球风险报告》及其对环境、经济、地缘政治、社会和技术风险类别的定义, 弥补了这一概念上的空白。在将这些结果应用于旅游业时, 初步的专家评估为更有效地将潜在的全球变化威胁纳入旅游业未来规划和决策提供了基础框架。

应优先开展进一步研究, 以探讨对旅游业影响最大的全球风险、这些风险可能如何以及在何处相互作用、如何将风险类别转化为可衡量的指标, 以及风险评估是否有助于缓解不断演变的多重危机。

讨论了旅游业与全球风险的系统性和战略性应对; 从旅游业的角度批判性地审视了世界经济论坛的《全球风险报告》; · 提出了驱动未来旅游业发展的关键风险维度; · 提供了进一步评估旅游业全球风险的基础框架; · 呼吁旅游学界优先关注全球变化研究议程。

El turismo se enfrenta a una serie de riesgos mundiales interconectados y potencialmente transformadores-considerados globalmente como policrisis en evolución-que no se han definido ni comprendido adecuadamente. En consecuencia, el sector se esfuerza por anticipar y mitigar de forma proactiva los posibles retos futuros, mientras que los gobiernos carecen de información para tomar decisiones estratégicas a largo plazo sobre el desarrollo del turismo.

Esta laguna conceptual se aborda mediante un análisis de los Informes sobre Riesgos Globales del Foro Económico Mundial y su definición de las categorías de riesgo medioambiental, económico, geopolítico, social y tecnológico. Al aplicar los resultados al turismo, una evaluación preliminar de los riesgos mundiales realizada por expertos proporciona un marco fundacional para incorporar más eficazmente las posibles amenazas del cambio global a la planificación y toma de decisiones sobre el futuro del turismo.

Debe darse prioridad a la investigación adicional para examinar los riesgos globales que más influyen en el turismo, cómo y dónde pueden interactuar, cómo convertir las categorías de riesgo en indicadores medibles y evaluar si las evaluaciones de riesgo pueden contribuir a mitigar la policrisis en evolución.

Analiza el compromiso sistemático y estratégico con los riesgos globales para el turismo; Revisa críticamente los Informes sobre Riesgos Globales del Foro Económico Mundial desde la perspectiva del turismo; Presenta las principales dimensiones del riesgo que impulsan el futuro desarrollo del turismo; Proporciona un marco básico para evaluar el riesgo mundial para el turismo; Precisa a la academia del turismo a priorizar la agenda de investigación sobre el cambio global.

The spatial–temporal conflicts in the construction process of concrete arch dams are related to the construction quality and duration, especially for pouring blocks with a continuous high-strength and high-density construction process. Furthermore, the complicated construction technology and limited space resources aggravate the spatial–temporal conflicts in the process of space resource allocation and utilization, directly affecting the pouring quality and progress of concrete. To promote the high-strength, quality-preserving and rapid construction of dams and to clarify the explosion moment and influence degree of the spatial–temporal conflicts of construction machinery during the pouring process, a quantification method and algorithm for a “Conflict Bubble” (CB) between construction machines is proposed based on the “Time–Space Microelement” (TSM).

First, the concept of a CB is proposed, which is defined as the spatial overlap of different entities in the movement process. The subsidiary space of the entity is divided into three layered spaces: the physical space, safe space and efficiency space from the inside to the outside. Second, the processes of “creation,” “transition” and “disappearance” of the CB at different levels with the movement of the entity are defined as the evolution of the spatial–temporal state of the entity. The mapping relationship between the spatial variation and the running time of the layered space during the movement process is defined as “Time–Space” (TS), which is intended to be processed by a microelement.

The quantification method and algorithm of the CB between construction machinery are proposed based on the TSM, which realizes the quantification of the physical collision accident rate, security risk rate and efficiency loss rate of the construction machinery at any time point or time period. The risk rate of spatial–temporal conflicts in the construction process was calculated, and the outbreak condition of spatial–temporal conflict in the pouring process was simulated and rehearsed. The quantitative calculation results show that the physical collision accident rate, security risk rate and efficiency loss rate of construction machinery at any time point or time period can be quantified.

This study provides theoretical support for the quantitative evaluation and analysis of the spatial–temporal conflict risk in the pouring construction process. It also serves as a reference for the rational organization and scientific decision-making for pouring blocks and provides new ideas and methods for the safe and efficient construction and the scientific and refined management of dams.

The purpose of the study is to examine how risk factors contribute to the occurrence of defects in a process. By analyzing these risk factors in relation to process quality, the study aims to help organizations prioritize their resources and efforts toward addressing the most significant risks. These challenges, integrated with the emerging concept of Quality 4.0, necessitate a comprehensive risk assessment technique.

Fuzzy logic integrated with an analytic network process is used in the process failure mode and effects analysis for conducting risk identification and assessment under uncertainty. Through a mathematical model, the linkage of risk with Six Sigma is established and, finally, a value–risk matrix is developed for illustrating and analysing risk impact on process quality.

A case study on fused filament fabrication demonstrates the proposed methodology’s applicability. The results show its effectiveness in assessing risk factors’ impact on Six Sigma metrics: defects per million opportunities/sigma level.

By integrating qualitative assessments and leveraging available data, this approach enables a more comprehensive understanding of risks and their utilization for an organization’s quality improvement initiatives.

This approach establishes a risk-centric Six Sigma assessment method in accordance with the requirement of ISO 9001:2015 and in the context of Quality 4.0.

This study aims to examine the effect of CEO compensation risk, as measured by the proportion of equity-based pay (option and stock awards) relative to total compensation and pay sensitivity to stock volatility, on CEO pay for luck asymmetry. This paper also empirically examines CEO compensation risk as a mediating variable between the regulatory changes and CEO pay for luck asymmetry.

This paper test the proposed two hypothesis that CEO compensation risk is positively associated with the degree of CEO pay for luck asymmetry; and the pay related regulations implemented around 2006 could mitigate the degree of CEO pay for luck asymmetry using the fixed-effects regression models.

Consistent with the managerial talent retention hypothesis, this paper finds that CEO compensation risk, as measured by the equity-based pay as a proportion of CEO total compensation and CEO pay sensitivity to stock volatility, is positively associated with the degree of CEO pay for luck asymmetry. In addition, this paper find that CEO pay for luck asymmetry is significantly reduced by the major regulatory changes on executive compensation implemented around 2006.

This study is among the very few studies exploring the impact of CEO compensation risk on pay for luck asymmetry in the literature. While the major purpose of the widely used stock options is to align executive interests and shareholder values, it also tends to increase the risk level of CEO compensation. So, a well-designed CEO pay package should protect risk-averse CEOs from bad luck for the retention purpose, which is also beneficial to shareholder wealth maximization. Therefore, future research on executive compensation needs to examine the issue from various perspectives.

For board of directors who is responsible for the compensation of CEOs, it is necessary to consider a broad range of factors when designing an optimal CEO pay package.

The findings on the impact of regulations on CEO pay for luck asymmetry suggest that the executive-pay-related regulations around 2006 have indeed achieved some of their intended goals to significantly lower pay for nonperformance asymmetry, whereby CEO pay sensitivity to stock volatility has been identified as a major mediating variable.

This study contributes to the literature on executive pay for luck asymmetry in several perspectives. First, this paper finds that CEO compensation risk has a positive impact on the degree of CEO pay for luck asymmetry. Second, this paper finds that the CEO pay for luck asymmetry has been mitigated after 2006 when various regulatory changes on executive compensation began to be implemented in the USA. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is among the very few studies investigating these issues in the literature.

The study analysed the aerospace industry, a traditionally important sector for the topic of risk management, from three complementary perspectives: the supply chain risks present in the sector, the mitigation strategies adopted to face them, and the characteristics (dimensions) observed in the SCRM process of aerospace companies.

The research employed a quali–quantitative method: a survey was carried out, followed by interviews with professionals from companies belonging to different tiers of aerospace supply chains. Interviews helped to interpret the survey data and understand in more detail risk management in aerospace companies.

The study presents a panorama of the aerospace industry in terms of risk management. The sector’s turbulent environment is described as well as the strategies to prevent, minimise or postpone the impact of supply chain risks. In particular, ten dimensions that have been identified in the SCRM process of aerospace firms are discussed. These characteristics influence the objectives of this process and are related to resources, roles and responsibilities, incentives, development of competences and skills, scope (internal and external) and approaches to integrate decisions and actions in the context of the supply chain.

Articles that address the SCRM process usually focus on the process steps, whereas this study investigated dimensions that transcend these steps but whose discussion in the literature is still fragmented. It also analysed a reference sector for the topic from a broader perspective than others available in the literature (supply chain risks, mitigation strategies and characteristics of the SCRM process). Supply chain members with relationships with each other were investigated, a desirable approach for SCRM but still under-explored. The study also answers calls for industry-specific studies and research on emerging countries.

This study aims to extend the cognitive appraisal theory by developing and validating a conceptual framework to illustrate how travelers' behavioral intention is generated via a multi-stage evaluation of health-related variables.

SEM and moderator analysis were conducted to examine the theoretical framework (post-intervention event travel intention) and to investigate how the appraisal process differs across travelers with various attitudes toward vaccination.

This study found that cruise travel intention was positively influenced by the perceived hedonic value and perceived trustworthiness and negatively influenced by perceived infection risk. Furthermore, whereas perceived hedonic value, perceived trustworthiness and perceived risk of infection were all predicted by crisis management, the dimensions of crisis management operated differently. In addition, vaccination attitudes amplified the unfavorable effect of perceived risk on intention.

Drawing on the CAT, this study developed and validated a conceptual framework to integrate crisis management with customers' behavioral intentions. This study extends existing cruise travel intention theory by demonstrating how post-pandemic travelers' behavioral intention is generated via a multi-stage appraisal-reappraisal process based on the evaluations of infection risks and cruise line crisis management.

Despite the proliferation of cyberthreats upon the supply chain (SC) at large, knowledge on SC cybersecurity is scarce and predominantly conceptual or descriptive. Addressing this gap, this research examines the effect of SC cyber risk management strategies on integration decisions for cybersecurity (with suppliers, customers, and internally) to enhance the SC’s cyber resilience and robustness.

A research model grounded in the supply chain risk management (SCRM) literature, with roots in the Dynamic Capabilities View and the Relational View, was developed. Survey responses of 388 SC managers at US manufacturers were obtained to test the model.

An impact of SC cyber risk management strategies on internal cyber integration was detected, which in turn impacted external cyber integration with both suppliers and customers. Further, a positive effect of internal and customer cyber integration on both cyber resilience and robustness was found, while cyber integration with suppliers impacted neither.

Industry practitioners may adapt certain risk management and integration strategies to enhance the cybersecurity posture of their SCs.

This research bridges between the established domain of SCRM and the emergent field of SC cybersecurity by forming and testing novel relationships between SCRM-rooted constructs tailored to an SC cyber risks context.

Small-scale farmers are highly heterogeneous with regard to their types of farming, levels of technology adoption, degree of commercialization and many other factors. Such heterogeneous types, respectively groups of small-scale farming systems require different forms of government interventions. This paper applies a machine learning approach to analyze the typologies of small-scale farmers in South Africa based on a wide range of objective variables regarding their personal, farm and context characteristics, which support an effective, target-group-specific design and communication of policies.

A cluster analysis is performed based on a comprehensive quantitative and qualitative survey among 212 small-scale farmers, which was conducted in 2019 in the Limpopo Province of South Africa. An unsupervised machine learning approach, namely Partitioning Around Medoids (PAM), is applied to the survey data. Subsequently, the farmers' risk perceptions between the different clusters are analyzed and compared.

According to the results of the cluster analysis, the small-scale farmers of the investigated sample can be grouped into four types: subsistence-oriented farmers, semi-subsistence livestock-oriented farmers, semi-subsistence crop-oriented farmers and market-oriented farmers. The subsequently analyzed risk perceptions and attitudes differ considerably between these types.

This is the first typologisation of small-scale farmers based on a comprehensive collection of quantitative and qualitative variables, which can all be considered in the analysis through the application of an unsupervised machine learning approach, namely PAM. Such typologisation is a pre-requisite for the design of more target-group-specific and suitable policy interventions.

Equitable risk allocation is important for the effective management of inevitable risks in International Construction Joint Venture (ICJV) projects. Previous studies have documented risks facing ICJV projects. However, there is a dearth of studies on the risk allocation preferences that take into consideration the opinions of both the local and foreign partners. This study aims to fill this gap by ascertaining the risk allocation preferences of the partners of ICJV projects for effective risk management.

Through a survey, data on risk allocation preferences were collected from both local and foreign partners of ICJV projects using a comprehensive register of 74 risks.

Following analysis, six risks were allocated to the local partner, 11 were allocated to the foreign partner, 51 risks were shared, four were allocated to a third party and two were to be negotiated based on the specific circumstances of the project. Practically, the study’s findings will help ICJV partners in drafting their ICJV contracts to adequately allocate risks and reduce contract negotiation time considerably.

The findings from this study will help partners in drafting their joint venture contract agreement and also reduce the period for contract negotiation. Knowledge of the preferred risk allocation is important in allocating risks in the contract agreement to the relevant partner for effective management.

This study, to the best knowledge of the authors, is one of the early studies to ascertain the risk allocation preferences of ICJV project partners in the Ghanaian construction industry – a departure from previous studies which focused on the identification and evaluation of risks. This study is also different from previous studies by considering the allocation preferences of both partners of the ICJV. The collection of data from both partners of the ICJV helped to consider their perceptions on risk allocation and evaluation, essentially leading to cross-cultural and optimal risk allocation preferences.