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Article
Publication date: 30 September 2022

Işıl Candemir and Cenk C. Karahan

This study aims to document the time varying risk premia for market, size, value and momentum factors for an emerging market using a sophisticated conditional asset pricing model…

156

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to document the time varying risk premia for market, size, value and momentum factors for an emerging market using a sophisticated conditional asset pricing model. The focus of this study is Turkish stock market denominated in local currency with its peculiar risk premia.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors employ Gagliardini et al.'s (2016) econometric method that uses cross-sectional and time series information simultaneously to infer the path of risk premia from individual stocks.

Findings

Using this methodology, the authors assess several conditioning information and conclude that local dividend yield, inflation and exchange rates have the most explanatory power. The authors document the time varying risk premia in Turkey over three decades.

Originality/value

Existing studies on dynamic estimation of risk premia lack a consensus as to which state variables should be included and to what extent they impact the magnitude of the premium. The authors extend the conditioning information set beyond the ones existing in the literature to determine variables that are specifically important for an emerging market.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 19 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 26 March 2024

Donia Aloui and Abderrazek Ben Maatoug

Over the last few years, the European Central Bank (ECB) has adopted unconventional monetary policies. These measures aim to boost economic growth and increase inflation through…

Abstract

Purpose

Over the last few years, the European Central Bank (ECB) has adopted unconventional monetary policies. These measures aim to boost economic growth and increase inflation through the bond market. The purpose of this paper is to study the impact of the ECB’s quantitative easing (QE) on the investor’s behavior in the stock market.

Design/methodology/approach

First, the authors theoretically identify the transmission channels of the QE shocks to the stock market. Then, the authors empirically assess the financial market’s responses to QE shocks in a data-rich environment using a factor augmented VAR (FAVAR).

Findings

The results show that the ECB’s unconventional monetary policy positively affects the stock market. A QE shock leads to an increase in stock prices and a drop in the realized volatility and the implied risk premium. The authors also suggest that the ECB’s QE is transmitted to the stock market through five main channels: the liquidity, the expectation, the portfolio reallocation, the interest rates and the risk premium channels.

Practical implications

The findings help to better understand the behavior of stock market assets in a data-rich economic context and guide investors and policymakers in the presence of unconventional monetary tools. For instance, decision-makers and investors should consider the short-term effect of the QE interventions and the changing behavior of the financial actors over time. In addition, high stock market returns can increase risk appetite. This can lead investors to underestimate the market risk. Decision-makers and market participants should take into consideration the impact of the large injection of money through the QE, which may raise the risk of a speculative bubble in the financial market.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study that incorporates a theoretical and empirical analysis to explore QE transmission to the stock market in the European context. Unlike previous studies, the authors use the shadow rate proposed by Wu and Xia (2017) to quantify the effect of the ECB’s QE in a data-rich environment. The authors also include two key risk indicators – the stock market risk premium and the realized volatility – to capture investors’ behavior in the stock market following QE shocks.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. 41 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 28 June 2024

Malcolm Frodsham

The primary purpose of this Practice Briefing is to examine the implications of the recommendations of the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) Review of Investment…

Abstract

Purpose

The primary purpose of this Practice Briefing is to examine the implications of the recommendations of the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) Review of Investment Valuations to shift towards (explicit) discounted cash flow (DCF) valuations on valuers, clients, risk management and market data.

Design/methodology/approach

This Practice Briefing will develop a conceptual framework to articulate the impact of the shift towards explicit modelling assumptions in valuations. A comparative analysis is conducted to contrast traditional valuation approaches with an explicit DCF approach.

Findings

The proposed shift to DCF valuations in the real estate industry carries both subtle and profound implications. While on the surface, the move appears to bring minimal change since current valuations are already DCF-based, a deeper exploration reveals a potential transformation to the understanding, analysis and measurement of pricing and risks in commercial real estate.

Practical implications

The traditional techniques adopted in valuations have become pervasive in the industry, hindering more sophisticated modelling and analysis of individual assets and portfolios. Explicitly modelling assumptions in both the initial years of cash flow and perpetuity calculations would unveil fundamental relationships and rationales that have previously been buried within, and perhaps ignored by, an All Risks Yield (ARY).

Originality/value

This briefing identifies the cause of confusion when interpreting ARY differentials on implied target returns and risk and demonstrates how a change to explicit assumptions, such as growth and letting periods, would enhance transparency, enabling more informed client–valuer discussions, which in-turn will boost confidence in valuation accuracy, lead to more sophisticated asset modelling, market data, forecasting and market analysis.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 42 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 8 February 2024

Peter Ngozi Amah

A stylized fact in finance literature is the belief in positive relationship between ex ante return and risk. Hence, a rational investor, by utility preference axiom can only…

Abstract

Purpose

A stylized fact in finance literature is the belief in positive relationship between ex ante return and risk. Hence, a rational investor, by utility preference axiom can only consider committing fund in asset which promises commensurate higher return for higher risk. Questions have been asked as to whether this holds true across securities, sectors and markets. Empirical evidence appears less convincing, especially in developing markets. Accordingly, the author investigates the nature of reward for taking risk in the Nigerian Capital Market within the context of individual assets and markets.

Design/methodology/approach

The author employed ex post design to collect weekly stock prices of firms listed on the Premium Board of Nigerian Stock Exchange for period 2014–2022 to attempt to answer research questions. Data were analyzed using a unique M Vec TGarch-in-Mean model considered to be robust in handling many assets, and hence portfolio management.

Findings

The study found that idea of risk-expected return trade-off is perhaps more general than as depicted by traditional finance literature. The regression revealed that conditional variance and covariance risks reveal minimal or no differences in sign and sizes of coefficients. However, standard errors were also found to be large suggesting somewhat inconclusive evidence of existence of defined incentive structure for taking additional risk in the market.

Originality/value

In terms of choice of methodology and outcomes, this research adds substantial value to body of knowledge. The adapted multivariate model used in this paper is a rare approach especially for management of portfolios in developing markets. Remarkably, the research found empirical evidence that positive risk-expected return trade-off, as known in mainstream literature, is not supported especially using a typical developing country data.

Details

IIMBG Journal of Sustainable Business and Innovation, vol. 2 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2976-8500

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 25 June 2024

Rodney Adriko and Jason R.C. Nurse

This study aims to offer insights into the state of research covering cybersecurity, cyber insurance and small- to medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). It examines benefits of…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to offer insights into the state of research covering cybersecurity, cyber insurance and small- to medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). It examines benefits of insurance to an SME’s security posture, challenges faced, and potential solutions and outstanding research questions.

Design/methodology/approach

Research objectives were formulated, and the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses Protocol was used to perform a systematic literature review (SLR). A total of 19 papers were identified from an initial set of 451.

Findings

This research underscores the role of cybersecurity in the value proposition of cyber insurance for SMEs. The findings highlight the benefits that cyber insurance offers SMEs including protection against cyber threats, financial assistance and access to cybersecurity expertise. However, challenges hinder SME’s engagement with insurance, including difficulties in understanding cyber risk, lack of cybersecurity knowledge and complex insurance policies. Researchers recommend solutions, such as risk assessment frameworks and government intervention, to increase cyber insurance uptake/value to SMEs.

Research limitations/implications

There is a need for further research in the risk assessment and cybersecurity practices of SMEs, the influence of government intervention and the effectiveness of insurers in compensating for losses. The findings also encourage innovation to address the unique needs of SMEs. These insights can guide future research and contribute to enhancing cyber insurance adoption.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first SLR to comprehensively examine the intersection of cybersecurity and cyber insurance specifically in the context of SMEs.

Details

Information & Computer Security, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2056-4961

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 18 June 2024

Martin Eling

This study aims to develop a comprehensive framework for discussing sustainability within the insurance industry, extending the traditional Environmental, Social, and Governance…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to develop a comprehensive framework for discussing sustainability within the insurance industry, extending the traditional Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) dimensions to include economic and technological considerations. This inclusion is vital, recognizing that financial stability and the adoption of innovative technologies are fundamental to meeting other sustainability targets.

Design/methodology/approach

We base our findings on an extensive literature review, case studies, and interactive workshops with key stakeholders in the insurance industry. Our analytical framework employs Porter's (1985) insurance-specific value chain, complemented by Berliner's (1982) insurability criteria, to distinguish between insurable and non-insurable risks.

Findings

Our results show that the insurance industry is sustainable because it actively incorporates and contributes to sustainability goals across environmental, social, economic, and technological dimensions. This is illustrated through the identification of 50 distinct contributions across the insurance value chain, showcasing the sector’s unique position to significantly influence the sustainability discourse.

Practical implications

Addressing the pressing challenges of sustainability and insurability necessitates a strategic, collective response from the global insurance and risk management community. This paper proposes several policy recommendations, including enhancing risk assessment methodologies, diversifying insurance product offerings, encouraging cross-sectoral collaboration, and prioritizing investments in resilience and preventive measures.

Originality/value

By broadening the sustainability discussion to encompass economic and technological facets, this paper enriches the dialogue surrounding the insurance industry’s role in sustainability. It aims to inform decision-makers across the industry, political spheres, and broader society about the necessity of sustainability, fostering pertinent political discussions and highlighting avenues for future research.

Details

The Journal of Risk Finance, vol. 25 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1526-5943

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 2 January 2024

Andreas Wibowo

This paper delves into the ex ante rates of return demanded by the private sector in Indonesian public–private partnership (PPP) infrastructure projects and the manifold factors…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper delves into the ex ante rates of return demanded by the private sector in Indonesian public–private partnership (PPP) infrastructure projects and the manifold factors emanating from project attributes that can influence these rates.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper analyzes feasibility studies of 37 PPP projects across different sectors. The studies were carefully selected based on relevance, completeness and validity of data. The analysis uses statistical techniques, including Levene’s tests, t-tests, ANOVA tests, Cohen’s effect size and Pearson correlations, to explore differences in cost of capital and excess returns across various attributes.

Findings

Based on the statistical analysis, no significant difference exists between the excess return of 200 basis points (bps) and the equity excess return of 0 bps. This suggests that the eligibility criteria for PPP projects require an internal rate of return (IRR) equal to the weighted average cost of capital plus 200 bps or an equity IRR equal to the cost of equity. The variations in the tested variables among diverse project attributes do not exhibit statistically significant disparities, even though specific attributes display moderate to high effect sizes.

Originality/value

This paper represents one of the first attempts to examine the rates of return demanded by the private sector in the context of Indonesian PPP projects. It comprehensively explores the factors that influence these rates, drawing on insights derived from feasibility studies.

Details

Built Environment Project and Asset Management, vol. 14 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-124X

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 31 May 2024

Priya Malhotra

Passive investing has established itself as the dominant force in the world of professionally managed assets, surpassing the concept of index funds. Its meteoric rise is fueled…

1196

Abstract

Purpose

Passive investing has established itself as the dominant force in the world of professionally managed assets, surpassing the concept of index funds. Its meteoric rise is fueled by investors’ preference for its dual benefits of strong diversification and low cost. A comprehensive study of the economic model, addressed areas and market structure has not yet been conducted, despite the existence of numerous studies on more specific topics. To address this gap, this paper examines 943 articles on passive investing published between 1998 and 2022 in SCOPUS and Web of Science.

Design/methodology/approach

The study utilizes the most pertinent tools for conducting a systematic review by the PRISMA framework. This article is the result of SLR and extensive bibliometric analysis. Contextualized systematic literature review is used to screen and select bibliographic data, which is then subjected to a variety of bibliometric analyses. The study provides a bibliometric overview of works on passive investment research that are indexed in Scopus and Web of Science. Bibliometrix, VoS Viewer and Cite Space are the tools used to conduct content and network analysis, to ascertain the present state of research, as well as its focus and direction.

Findings

Our exhaustive analysis yields important findings. One, the previous decade has witnessed a substantial increase in the number of publications and citations; in particular, the inter-disciplinary and international scope of related research has expanded; Second, the top three clusters on “active versus passive funds,” “price discovery and market structures” and “exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as an alternative” account for more than fifty percent of the domain’s knowledge; Third, “Leveraged ETFs (LETFs)” and “environmental, social and governance (ESG)” are the two emerging themes in the passive investing research. Fourth, despite its many benefits, passive investing is not suitable for everyone. To get the most out of what passive investing has to offer, investors, intermediaries and regulators must all exercise sufficient caution. Our study makes a substantial contribution to the field by conducting a comprehensive bibliometric analysis of the existing literature, highlighting key findings and implications, as well as future research directions.

Research limitations/implications

While the study contributes significantly to the field of knowledge, it has several limitations that must be considered when interpreting its findings and implications. With our emphasis on academic journals, the study analyzed only peer-reviewed journal articles, excluding conference papers, reports and technical articles. While we are confident that our approach resulted in a comprehensive and representative database, our reliance on Elsevier Scopus and Web of Science may have resulted in us overlooking relevant work accessible only through other databases. Additionally, specific bibliometric properties may not be time-stable, and certain common distribution patterns of the passive investing literature may still be developing.

Practical implications

With this study, it has been possible to observe and chart the high growth trajectory of passive investing research globally, especially post-US subprime crisis. Despite the widespread adoption of passive investing as an investment strategy, it is not a one-size-fits-all proposition. Market conditions change constantly, and it frequently requires an informed eye to determine when and how much to shift away from active investments and toward passive ones. Currency ETFs enable investors to implement a carry trade strategy in their portfolios; however, as a word of caution, currency stability and liquidity can play a significant role in international ETFs. Similarly, LETFs may be better suited for dynamic strategies and offer less value to a long-term investor. Lastly, the importance of investor education cannot be underestimated in the name of the highly diversified portfolio when using passive alternatives, for which necessary efforts are required by regulators and investors alike.

Social implications

The inexorable trend to passive investing creates numerous issues for fund management, including fee and revenue pressure, which forces traditional managers to seek new revenue streams, such as illiquid and private assets, which also implies increased portfolio risk. Additionally, the increased transparency and efficiency associated with the ETF market indicates that managers must rethink the entire value chain, beginning with technology and the way investments interact. Passive investments have triggered changes in market structure that are still not fully understood or factored in. Active management and a range of valuation opinions on whether a price is “too low” or “too high” provide much-needed depth to a market as it attempts to strike a delicate balance between demand and supply forces, ensuring liquidity at all price points.

Originality/value

I hereby certify that I am the sole author of this paper and that no part of this manuscript has been published or submitted for publication.

Details

Journal of Capital Markets Studies, vol. 8 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2514-4774

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 13 September 2024

Su Li, Tony van Zijl and Roger Willett

Prior studies have found that managers adjust operational activities to tackle climate risk. However, the effects of climate risk on accounting practices are largely ignored in…

Abstract

Purpose

Prior studies have found that managers adjust operational activities to tackle climate risk. However, the effects of climate risk on accounting practices are largely ignored in the literature. This paper investigates whether and how climate risk influences managers’ decision-making on the level of accounting conservatism and explains the results based on two competing channels: valuation demand and contracting demand.

Design/methodology/approach

Using firm level climate risk measures, we build a modified Basu (1997) model to conduct our econometric tests. In the baseline model, we use earnings before extraordinary items as the dependent variable, referred to as the earnings model. We control for different levels of fixed effect to identify the shocks of climate risk and mitigate potential concerns on endogeneity and bias in the model. A series of robustness tests provide supporting evidence for our baseline results and our explanation.

Findings

Using a sample of 35,832 firm-year observations on listed US firms over the period 2002 to 2019, we find that the perception of climate risk drives managers to choose the less conservative accounting policies. We conclude that the results are consistent with the valuation demand explanation but inconsistent with the contracting demand explanation.

Originality/value

The study provides additional evidence on how managers respond to climate risk by adjusting their corporate polices, specifically accounting policies. Our findings contradict the results of prior studies. We explain our results from a unique perspective. Overall, the study provides valuable insights for academics, investors, managers and policymakers.

Details

China Finance Review International, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-1398

Keywords

Abstract

Details

Understanding Financial Risk Management, Third Edition
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83753-253-7

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