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Open Access
Article
Publication date: 10 June 2024

Lua Thi Trinh

The purpose of this paper is to compare nine different models to evaluate consumer credit risk, which are the following: Logistic Regression (LR), Naive Bayes (NB), Linear…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to compare nine different models to evaluate consumer credit risk, which are the following: Logistic Regression (LR), Naive Bayes (NB), Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA), k-Nearest Neighbor (k-NN), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Classification and Regression Tree (CART), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Random Forest (RF) and Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT) in Peer-to-Peer (P2P) Lending.

Design/methodology/approach

The author uses data from P2P Lending Club (LC) to assess the efficiency of a variety of classification models across different economic scenarios and to compare the ranking results of credit risk models in P2P lending through three families of evaluation metrics.

Findings

The results from this research indicate that the risk classification models in the 2013–2019 economic period show greater measurement efficiency than for the difficult 2007–2012 period. Besides, the results of ranking models for predicting default risk show that GBDT is the best model for most of the metrics or metric families included in the study. The findings of this study also support the results of Tsai et al. (2014) and Teplý and Polena (2019) that LR, ANN and LDA models classify loan applications quite stably and accurately, while CART, k-NN and NB show the worst performance when predicting borrower default risk on P2P loan data.

Originality/value

The main contributions of the research to the empirical literature review include: comparing nine prediction models of consumer loan application risk through statistical and machine learning algorithms evaluated by the performance measures according to three separate families of metrics (threshold, ranking and probabilistic metrics) that are consistent with the existing data characteristics of the LC lending platform through two periods of reviewing the current economic situation and platform development.

Details

Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2077-1886

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 23 July 2024

Hongying Niu, Xiaodong Yang, Jiayu Zhang and Shengyu Guo

Construction fall-from-height accidents are not only caused by a single factor but also by the risk coupling between two or more factors. The purpose of this paper is to…

Abstract

Purpose

Construction fall-from-height accidents are not only caused by a single factor but also by the risk coupling between two or more factors. The purpose of this paper is to quantitatively analyze the risk coupling relationships between multiple factors and identify critical factors in construction fall-from-height accidents.

Design/methodology/approach

A cause analysis framework was established from the perspective of human, machine, material, management and environmental factors. The definition, the classification and the process of risk coupling were proposed. The data from 824 historical accident reports from 2011 to 2021 were collected on government websites. A risk coupling analysis model was constructed to quantitatively analyze the risk coupling relationships of multiple factors based on the N-K model. The results were classified using K-means clustering analysis.

Findings

The results indicated that the greater the number of causal factors involved in risk coupling, the higher the risk coupling value and the higher the risk of accidents. However, specific risk coupling combinations occurred when the number of their coupling factors was not large. Human, machine and material factors were determined to be the critical factors when risk coupling between them tended to pose a greater risk of accidents.

Originality/value

This study established a cause analysis framework from five aspects and constructed a theoretical model to quantitatively analyze multi-factor coupling. Several suggestions were proposed for construction units to manage accident risks more effectively by controlling the number of factors and paying more attention to critical factors coupling and management and environmental factors.

Details

Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0969-9988

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 24 May 2024

Shupeng Liu, Jianhong Shen and Jing Zhang

Learning from past construction accident reports is critical to reducing their occurrence. Digital technology provides feasibility for extracting risk factors from unstructured…

Abstract

Purpose

Learning from past construction accident reports is critical to reducing their occurrence. Digital technology provides feasibility for extracting risk factors from unstructured reports, but there are few related studies, and there is a limitation that textual contextual information cannot be considered during extraction, which tends to miss some important factors. Meanwhile, further analysis, assessment and control for the extracted factors are lacking. This paper aims to explore an integrated model that combines the advantages of multiple digital technologies to effectively solve the above problems.

Design/methodology/approach

A total of 1000 construction accident reports from Chinese government websites were used as the dataset of this paper. After text pre-processing, the risk factors related to accident causes were extracted using KeyBERT, and the accident texts were encoded into structured data. Tree-augmented naive (TAN) Bayes was used to learn the data and construct a visualized risk analysis network for construction accidents.

Findings

The use of KeyBERT successfully considered the textual contextual information, prompting the extracted risk factors to be more complete. The integrated TAN successfully further explored construction risk factors from multiple perspectives, including the identification of key risk factors, the coupling analysis of risk factors and the troubleshooting method of accident risk source. The area under curve (AUC) value of the model reaches up to 0.938 after 10-fold cross-validation, indicating good performance.

Originality/value

This paper presents a new machine-assisted integrated model for accident report mining and risk factor analysis, and the research findings can provide theoretical and practical support for accident safety management.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 1 March 2022

Elisabetta Colucci, Francesca Matrone, Francesca Noardo, Vanessa Assumma, Giulia Datola, Federica Appiotti, Marta Bottero, Filiberto Chiabrando, Patrizia Lombardi, Massimo Migliorini, Enrico Rinaldi, Antonia Spanò and Andrea Lingua

The study, within the Increasing Resilience of Cultural Heritage (ResCult) project, aims to support civil protection to prevent, lessen and mitigate disasters impacts on cultural…

2498

Abstract

Purpose

The study, within the Increasing Resilience of Cultural Heritage (ResCult) project, aims to support civil protection to prevent, lessen and mitigate disasters impacts on cultural heritage using a unique standardised-3D geographical information system (GIS), including both heritage and risk and hazard information.

Design/methodology/approach

A top-down approach, starting from existing standards (an INSPIRE extension integrated with other parts from the standardised and shared structure), was completed with a bottom-up integration according to current requirements for disaster prevention procedures and risk analyses. The results were validated and tested in case studies (differentiated concerning the hazard and type of protected heritage) and refined during user forums.

Findings

Besides the ensuing reusable database structure, the filling with case studies data underlined the tough challenges and allowed proposing a sample of workflows and possible guidelines. The interfaces are provided to use the obtained knowledge base.

Originality/value

The increasing number of natural disasters could severely damage the cultural heritage, causing permanent damage to movable and immovable assets and tangible and intangible heritage. The study provides an original tool properly relating the (spatial) information regarding cultural heritage and the risk factors in a unique archive as a standard-based European tool to cope with these frequent losses, preventing risk.

Details

Journal of Cultural Heritage Management and Sustainable Development, vol. 14 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-1266

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 23 May 2024

Mohamed Hessian, Alaa Mansour Zalata and Khaled Hussainey

This study examines the effect of non-audit fees (NAF) provisions on interest payments classification shifting. In addition, we investigate to what extent the NAF economic bonding…

Abstract

Purpose

This study examines the effect of non-audit fees (NAF) provisions on interest payments classification shifting. In addition, we investigate to what extent the NAF economic bonding and interest payments classification shifting is contingent on internal governance and firm financial well-being.

Design/methodology/approach

This study employed probit regression using a sample of UK non-financial firms indexed in FT UK (500) over the period from 2009 to 2017.

Findings

We find evidence that the economic bonding of NAF between external auditors and their clients is more likely to encourage managers in UK firms to manipulate operating cash flows through interest payment classification shifting. In addition, and interestingly, our results evince that classification-shifting may be the less costly and soft choice of managers in firms with strong governance and charging higher NAF. Furthermore, we show that financially distressed firms associated with their auditors in purchasing non-audit services are more prone to attempting to manipulate and engage in interest payments classification-shifting. Our result did not provide a significant effect of external auditor tenure on the interest payments classification shifting.

Research limitations/implications

Our findings are subject to the following limitations: First, this study uses a composite index to measure the quality of internal corporate governance. It focuses only on the board of directors, but this index does not reflect other internal governance mechanisms. Second, this study is subject to limited study time due to the implementation of key IFRS standards (IFRS 9 Financial Instruments and IFRS 15 Revenue from Contract with Customers) from 2018–2019.

Practical implications

This study was motivated by the UK’s Financial Reporting Council regulators' pressure on the Big 4 audit firms to move more audit time into main auditing activities, reduce cross-selling to audit clients and separate their audit practices by 2024. Overall, we provide new evidence that directs a close spotlight on the threats of NAF that are potentially useful to regulators, shareholders and investors.

Originality/value

It is motivated by the UK’s Financial Reporting Council regulators' pressure on the Big 4 to move more audit firm time into main auditing activities, reduce cross-selling to audit clients and separate their audit practices by 2024. Overall, we provide new evidence that directs a close spotlight on the threats of NAS that are potentially useful to regulators, shareholders and investors.

Details

Journal of Applied Accounting Research, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0967-5426

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 2 July 2024

Mushtaq Hussain Khan, Zaid Zein Alabdeen and Angesh Anupam

By combining the notion of prospect theory with advanced machine learning algorithms, this study aims to predict whether financial institutions (FIs) adopt a reactive stance when…

Abstract

Purpose

By combining the notion of prospect theory with advanced machine learning algorithms, this study aims to predict whether financial institutions (FIs) adopt a reactive stance when they perceive climate change as a risk, consequently leading to the adoption of environmental, social and governance (ESG) practices to avoid this risk. Prospect theory assumes that decision-makers react quickly when decisions are framed as a risk or threat rather than as an opportunity.

Design/methodology/approach

We used a sample of 168 FIs across 27 countries and seven regions over the period 2003–2020. To conduct our empirical investigation, we compared the prediction accuracy of various machine learning algorithms.

Findings

Our findings suggest that out of 12 machine learning algorithms, AdaBoost, Gradient Boosting and XGBoost have the most precision in predicting whether FIs react to climate change risk in adopting ESG practices. This study also tested the overall climate change risk and risks associated with physical, opportunity and regulatory shocks of climate change. We observed that risks associated with physical and regulatory shocks significantly impact the adoption of ESG practices, supporting prospect theory predictions.

Practical implications

The insights of this study provide important implications for policymakers. Specifically, policymakers must take into account the risk posed by climate change in the corporate decision-making process, as it directly influences a firm’s adoption of corporate actions (ESG practices).

Originality/value

To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to investigate the firm-level climate change risk and adoption of ESG practices from a prospect theory perspective using novel machine learning algorithms.

Details

Business Process Management Journal, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-7154

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 18 March 2024

Isaac S. Awuye and Daniel Taylor

In 2018, the International Financial Reporting Standard 9-Financial Instruments became mandatory, effectively changing the underlying accounting principles of financial…

Abstract

Purpose

In 2018, the International Financial Reporting Standard 9-Financial Instruments became mandatory, effectively changing the underlying accounting principles of financial instruments. This paper systematically reviews the academic literature on the implementation effects of IFRS 9, providing a coherent picture of the state of the empirical literature on IFRS 9.

Design/methodology/approach

The study thrives on a systematic review approach by analyzing existing academic studies along the following three broad categories: adoption and implementation, impact on financial reporting, and risk management and provisioning. The study concludes by providing research prospects to fill the identified gaps.

Findings

We document data-related issues, forecasting uncertainties and the interaction of IFRS 9 with other regulatory standards as implementation challenges encountered. Also, we observe cross-country heterogeneity in reporting quality. Furthermore, contrary to pre-implementation expectations, we find improvement in risk management. This suggests that despite the complexities of the new regulatory standard on financial instruments, it appears to be more successful in achieving the intended objective of enhancing better market discipline and transparency rather than being a regulatory overreach.

Originality/value

As the literature on IFRS 9 is burgeoning, we provide state-of-the-art guidance and direction for researchers with a keen interest in the economic significance and implications of IFRS 9 adoption. The study identifies gaps in the literature that require further research, specifically, IFRS 9 adoption and firm’s hedging activities, IFRS 9 implications on non-financial firms. Lastly, existing studies are mostly focused on Europe and underscore the need for more research in under-researched jurisdictions, particularly in Asia and Africa. Also, to standard setters, policymakers and practitioners, we provide some insight to aid the formulation and application of standards.

Details

Journal of Accounting Literature, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0737-4607

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 21 July 2023

Deepak Datta Nirmal, K. Nageswara Reddy and Sujeet Kumar Singh

The main purpose of this study is to provide a comprehensive review and critical insights of the application of fuzzy methods in modeling, assessing and understanding the various…

Abstract

Purpose

The main purpose of this study is to provide a comprehensive review and critical insights of the application of fuzzy methods in modeling, assessing and understanding the various aspects of green and sustainable supply chains (SSCs).

Design/methodology/approach

The present study conducts a systematic literature review (SLR) and bibliometric analysis of 252 research articles. This study employs various tools such as VOSviewer version 1.6.10, Publish or Perish, Mendeley and Excel that aid in descriptive analysis, bibliometric analysis and network visualization. These tools have been used for performing citation analysis, top authors' analysis, co-occurrence of keywords, cluster and content analysis.

Findings

The authors have divided the literature into seven application areas and discussed detailed insights. This study has observed that research in the social sustainability area, including various issues like health and safety, labor rights, discrimination, etc. is scarce. Integration of the Industry 4.0 technologies like blockchain, big data analytics, Internet of Things (IoT) with the sustainable and green supply chain (GSC) is a promising field for future research.

Originality/value

The authors' contribution primarily lies in providing the integrated framework which shows the changing trends in the use of fuzzy methods in the sustainability area classifying and consolidating green and sustainable supply chain management (SSCM) literature in seven major areas where fuzzy methods are predominantly applied. These areas have been obtained after the analysis of clusters and content analysis of the literature presenting key insights from the past and developing the conceptual framework for future research studies.

Details

Benchmarking: An International Journal, vol. 31 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-5771

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 24 October 2023

Bianca Arcifa de Resende, Franco Giuseppe Dedini, Jony Javorsky Eckert, Tiago F.A.C. Sigahi, Jefferson de Souza Pinto and Rosley Anholon

This study aims to propose a facilitating methodology for the application of Fuzzy FMEA (Failure Mode and Effect Analysis), comparing the traditional approach with fuzzy…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to propose a facilitating methodology for the application of Fuzzy FMEA (Failure Mode and Effect Analysis), comparing the traditional approach with fuzzy variations, supported by a case application in the aeronautical sector.

Design/methodology/approach

Based on experts' opinions in risk analysis within the aeronautical sector, rules governing the relationship between severity, occurrence, detection and risk factor were defined. This served as input for developing a fuzzyfied FMEA tool using the Matlab Fuzzy Logic Toolbox. The tool was applied to the sealing process in a company within the aeronautical sector, using triangular and trapezoidal membership functions, and the results were compared with the traditional FMEA approach.

Findings

The results of the comparative application of traditional FMEA and fuzzyfied FMEA using triangular and trapezoidal functions have yielded valuable insights into risk analysis. The findings indicated that fuzzyfied FMEA maintained coherence with the traditional analysis in identifying higher-risk effects, aligning with the prioritization of critical failure modes. Additionally, fuzzyfied FMEA allowed for a more refined prioritization by accounting for variations in each variable through fuzzy rules, thereby improving the accuracy of risk analysis and providing a more realistic representation of potential hazards. The application of the developed fuzzyfied FMEA approach showed promise in enhancing risk assessment in the aeronautical sector by considering uncertainties and offering a more detailed and context-specific analysis compared to conventional FMEA.

Practical implications

This study emphasizes the potential of fuzzyfied FMEA in enhancing risk assessment by accurately identifying critical failure modes and providing a more realistic representation of potential hazards. The application case reveals that the proposed tool can be integrated with expert knowledge to improve decision-making processes and risk mitigation strategies within the aeronautical industry. Due to its straightforward approach, this facilitating methodology could also prove beneficial in other industrial sectors.

Originality/value

This paper presents the development and application of a facilitating methodology for implementing Fuzzy FMEA, comparing it with the traditional approach and incorporating variations using triangular and trapezoidal functions. This proposed methodology uses the Toolbox Fuzzy Logic of Matlab to create a fuzzyfied FMEA tool, enabling a more nuanced and context-specific risk analysis by considering uncertainties.

Details

International Journal of Quality & Reliability Management, vol. 41 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0265-671X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 24 October 2023

Santushti Gupta and Divya Aggarwal

This study aims to empirically examine environment, social, and governance (ESG) as an effective strategy to reduce major impediments for a corporation in the form of costs of…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to empirically examine environment, social, and governance (ESG) as an effective strategy to reduce major impediments for a corporation in the form of costs of capital (COC) and systematic risk, especially for emerging markets such as India.

Design/methodology/approach

A sample of 114 Indian firms from eight prominent industries based on Thomson Reuters classification (TRBC) are used in the study. A panel regression with industry-fixed effects is carried out to account for industry heterogeneity. For robustness, the authors also carry out a matched sample analysis.

Findings

The authors observe a negative and significant relationship between ESG performance with COC and systematic risk, respectively. For the pillar-wise analysis, the authors observe that only governance performance is negatively and significantly related to COC whereas the environmental and social performances are negative and insignificant. For ESG pillar level analysis for beta, the authors observe that all pillars are negative and significant, thus making a case for how firms can fine-tune their ESG strategies according to each pillar.

Research limitations/implications

As the ESG concept is still in a very nascent stage, data availability is a definite challenge in India.

Practical implications

As ESG is increasingly becoming relevant for multiple stakeholders, this study aims to provide evidence that can potentially guide the regulators, practitioners, and academicians to address the contemporary needs of these stakeholders, while also doing good for the firm in the traditional sense.

Social implications

The transition to a sustainable economy is a challenge for emerging economies, especially for a country like India where stakeholders are not only varied but also huge in number. With this study's contribution towards an incremental understanding of ESG, Indian regulators and policymakers can bring forward mandates as to ESG compliances that are rewarding for the firms and give them enough impetus towards complying with ESG norms.

Originality/value

The extant literature on ESG majorly discusses the relationship between ESG performance and financial performance. This study addresses the lacuna of the relationship of ESG with COC and beta in the Indian context.

Details

Asian Review of Accounting, vol. 32 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1321-7348

Keywords

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