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In the past three decades, remote sensing-based models for estimating crop yield have addressed critical problems of general food security, as the unavailability of grains such as rice creates serious worldwide food insecurity problems. The main purpose of this study was to compare the potential of time-series Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 data to predict rice yield several weeks before harvest on a regional scale.

To this end, the sum of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)-based models created the best agreement with actual yield data at the golden time window of six weeks before harvest when rice grains were in milky and mature growth stages. The application of nine other vegetation indicators was also investigated in the golden time window in comparison to NDVI.

The findings of this study demonstrate the viability of identifying locations with poor and superior performance in terms of production management approaches through a rapid and economical solution for early rice grain yield assessment. Results indicated that while some of those, such as enhanced vegetation index (EVI) and optimized soil adjusted vegetation index, were able to estimate rice yield with high accuracy, NDVI is still the best indicator to predict rice yield before harvest. However, experiments can be conducted in different regions in future studies to evaluate the generalizability of the approach.

To achieve this objective, the authors considered the following purposes: using Sentinel-2 time-series data, determining the appropriate growth stage for estimating rice yield and evaluating different vegetation indices for estimating rice yield.

Fewer researchers have investigated the climatic and economic drivers of land-use change simultaneously and the interplay between drivers. This paper aims to investigate the nonlinear and interaction effects of price and climate variables on the rice acreage in high-latitude regions of China.

This study applies a multivariate adaptive regression spline to characterize the effects of price and climate expectations on rice acreage in high-latitude regions of China from 1992 to 2017. Then, yield expectation is added into the model to investigate the mechanism of climate effects on rice area allocation.

The results of importance assessment suggest that rice price, climate and total agricultural area play an important role in rice area allocation, and the importance of temperature is always higher than that of precipitation, especially for minimum temperature. Based on the estimated hinge functions and coefficients, it is found that total agricultural area has strong nonlinear and interaction effects with climate and price as forms of third-order interaction. However, the order of interaction terms reduces to second order after absorbing the expected yield. Additionally, the marginal effects of driven factors are calculated at different quantiles. The total area shows a positive and increasing marginal effect with the increase of total area. But the positive impact of price on the rice area can only be observed when price reached 50% or higher quantiles. Climate variables also show strong nonlinear marginal effects, and most climatic effects would disappear or be weakened once absorbing the expected rice yield. Expected yield is an efficient mechanism to explain the correlation between crop area and climate variables, but the impact of minimum temperature cannot be completely modeled by the yield expectation.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to examine the nonlinear response of land-use change to climate and economic in high-latitude regions of China using the machine learning method.

This paper aims to investigate how climatic, market and policy factors interact to determine food production in Togo. Specifically, we estimate acreage and yield response to market prices, weather and policy changes for maize and rice.

We use panel data estimators in a Seemingly Unrelated Regressions Equation (SURE) model with region-level data from the Food and Agriculture Organization statistics department and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the US Department of commerce.

We found lower fertilizer price and higher grain price effects on maize acreage and yield. In addition, we found a positive effect of expected rice price on both its acreage and yield. As expected, rainfall during planting months has a significant impact on both maize (April) and paddy (May) acreage allocations. Similarly, total rainfall during the growing season has a positive impact on both maize and paddy yields. Moreover, recent agricultural policy initiative designed to boost domestic food production has significantly increased acreage and yield for maize, and yield for paddy, especially the strategy for agricultural growth.

The dataset includes region-level observations from 1991 to 2012 which limits the observation span. However, we had enough variability in key variables to determine the estimated coefficients.

Although the dataset is limited in time (1991–2012) and uses national-level output prices, this investigation reveals that cropland allocation to maize and rice is sensitive to fertilizer and grain prices, weather expectations and policy interventions. These findings provide evidence for sustainable food production and productivity enhancement in Togo.

Understanding drivers of cropland allocation and cereal yield contribute to better food security and poverty reduction in developing countries, especially Togo.

Prior to this study, little was known on the effect of price, climate and policy on cropland allocation in Togo. This investigation contributes significantly to filling this knowledge gap and provides insights for effective interventions.

This study assessed the heterogeneous impact of the Anchor Borrower Program (ABP) on the welfare distribution of rice farming households in Nigeria.

Self-selection bias and treatment endogeneity were accounted for by employing the Instrumental Variable Quantile Regression (IVQR) model. The estimates obtained from the IVQR model were further compared with those from the conventional quantile regression, and quantile regression using Propensity Score Matching. This was to highlight the extent to which endogeneity bias has been purged from the treatment, in order to establish a consistent causal link between participation in the ABP and the welfare of a cross-section of rice farming households.

ABP farmers had significantly higher rice yields across all quantiles of the yield distribution under treatment exogeneity assumption, and in only two quantiles upon controlling for observable confounders. However, this yield gain did not translate to higher Per capita Consumption Expenditure (PCE). The estimates of the more robust IVQR model provided further evidence that the rice yield and PCE of ABP farmers are not statistically different from that of non-ABP farmers across all quantiles of the welfare distribution.

The negligible impact of ABP was relatively higher for lower-yielding households. Thus, implying that, although the ABP is a pro-poor development intervention, the program has not been sufficiently implemented to significantly improve the welfare of the dominant resource-poor farming households in Nigeria.

This study assessed the impact of ABP beyond the conventional potential mean outcome framework by accounting for heterogeneity in treatment effect.

The peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-02-2023-0083

The study aims to examine the impact of farmers’ actual adaptations on rice yields in the upland areas of Yunnan province, China.

The paper employs the simultaneous equations model with endogenous switching to investigate the different effects of adaptation strategies on rice yields achieved by adopters and nonadopters based on the cross-sectional data at farm level.

The results show that farmers’ access to government agricultural extension services significantly encourages rice farmers to make the adjustments in farm managements. The authors find that the adaptation strategies employed by farmers significantly increase rice yields. Adaptations adopted by upland farmers increase rice yields for both adopters and nonadopters, particularly for the nonadopters.

This paper contributes to the existing literature by focusing on farmers’ adaptation strategies to climate change in uplands of Yunnan using the primary household survey data. The results show the effectiveness of farmers’ adaptation adoptions on rice yields in uplands of Yunnan province.

This paper presents the systematic process framework to develop the suitable crop insurance for each agriculture farming region which has individual differences of associated crop, climate condition, including applicable technology to be implemented in crop insurance practice. This paper also studies the adoption of new insurance scheme to assess the willingness to join crop insurance program.

Crop insurance development has been performed through IDDI conceptual framework to illustrate the specific crop insurance diagram. Area-yield insurance as a type of index-based insurance advantages on reducing basis risk, adverse selection and moral hazard. This paper therefore aims to develop area-yield crop insurance, at a provincial level, focusing on rice insurance scheme for the protection of flood. The diagram demonstrates the structure of area-yield rice insurance associates with selected machine learning algorithm to evaluate indemnity payment and premium assessment applicable for Jasmine 105 rice farming in Ubon Ratchathani province. Technology acceptance model (TAM) is used for new insurance adoption testing.

The framework produces the visibly informative structure of crop insurance. Random Forest is the algorithm that gives high accuracy for specific collected data for rice farming in Ubon Ratchathani province to evaluate the rice production to calculate an indemnity payment. TAM shows that the level of adoption is high.

This paper originates the framework to generate the viable crop insurance that suitable to individual farming and contributes the idea of technology implementation in the new service of crop insurance scheme.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the determinants and impacts of outsourcing pest and disease management on rice production in China.

A multinomial endogenous treatment effects model which accounts for selection bias was used.

The results show that outsourcing decisions are driven mainly by the size of the farm, the age of the household head and other household characteristics. Further, the authors find that outsourcing labor for pest and disease control has no significant effect on pest control cost and rice yields, though it reduces the number of pesticide applications. Conversely, outsourcing of professional services can increase rice yields by 4.1 percent, and at the same time it increases pest and disease control costs by 50.6 percent. However, it is found that outsourcing of professional services exerts no significant impact on the farm profitability.

This study suggests that households with large farm size are more likely to outsource professional services and, therefore, service providers and governments should target those farmers to provide incentives and create greater awareness of the benefits from the outsourcing of professional services. Moreover, the increase in yields along with the government subsidy justifies the outsourcing of professional services by farmers. However, service providers and policy makers have a lot of leeway to come up with cheaper methods for pest and disease management in rice production.

This study is the first attempt to simultaneously evaluate the determinants and impacts of outsourcing pest and disease management on rice production in China.

This paper aims at understanding the causes of low adoption of hybrid rice technology. The paper also assesses the impact of adoption of hybrids and modern varieties on crop yield, vis-à-vis the old or traditional varieties.

Using unit-level data from a large-scale survey of farm households (19,877 paddy cultivators), the authors applied multi-nomial regression method to understand the factors for adoption of hybrid rice and instrumental variable method of regression to estimate its impact.

The findings demonstrate that in India, hybrid rice is often grown on relatively poor soils, resulting in greater irrigation costs and for other inputs, such as fertilizers. Further, farmers' poor access to information on the traits of hybrid rice and the associated agronomic practices, as well as poor access to financial resources, hampers efforts to scale up its adoption. More importantly, the findings reveal that the relative yield advantage of hybrids over open-pollinated modern varieties is not large enough to incentivize the rapid adoption of hybrid rice technology.

Given the higher cost of hybrids than the inbred varieties, enhancing paddy cultivators' access to financial resources can accelerate the adoption of hybrid rice in India.

The study is based on unit level data from a large-scale, nationally representative survey of farm households, comprising a sample of 19,877 paddy cultivators, spread across states in India.

After a long observation of the high rate of rice importation and low productivity in Côte d’Ivoire, the certified rice seed was introduced and encouraged to be used by the local farmers. This study evaluates the profitability of rice production and the impact of certified seed usage on the yield and income of farmers in Côte d’Ivoire.

Data were collected from 265 rice farmers. Descriptive statistics were used to identify the challenges faced in using certified seeds. Profitability analysis was used to examine the profitability of rice production. To eliminate bias due to the counterfactuals, the endogenous switching regression was employed to investigate the impact of the certified seeds on income and yield.

The difficulties faced by the rice farmers in the procurement of certified seeds were the unavailability of seeds, the high cost of seeds and poor credit access. Furthermore, rice farmers using certified seeds get a higher net income (USD 263.74/ha) than those using farmers' seeds (USD 212.31/ha). The average treatment on the treated was 1.61 for the yield and 574.75 for the income. The average treatment on the untreated was 1.20 for the yield and 422.59 for the income. These indicate a higher yield and income among adopters of certified rice seed.

Certified rice seed usage is profitable and enhances the output and income of rice farmers. The study advocates the creation of a stronger relationship between the farmers and the extension agents to encourage the use of certified seeds and increase the profit of the farmers.

There is scant information on the profitability of certified rice seed usage and how it affect yield and income. Therefore, this study serves as empirical evidence for policymakers to develop strategies that are required to enhance certified seed usage, boost rice productivity and achieve food security.

This research aims to monitor vegetation indices to assess drought in paddy rice fields in Mazandaran, Iran, and propose the best index to predict rice yield.

A three-step methodology is applied. First, the paddy rice fields are mapped by using three satellite-based datasets, namely SRTM DEM, Landsat8 TOA and MYD11A2. Second, the maps of indices are extracted using MODIS. And finally, the trend of indices over rice-growing seasons is extracted and compared with the rice yield data.

Rice paddies maps and vegetation indices maps are provided. Vegetation Health Index (VHI) combining average Temperature Condition Index (TCI) and minimum Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), and also VHI combining TCI_min and VCI_min are found to be the most proper indices to predict rice yield.

The results serve as a guideline for policy-makers and practitioners in the agro-food industry to (1) support sustainable agriculture and food safety in terms of rice production; (2) help balance the supply and demand sides of the rice market and move towards SDG2; (3) use yield prediction in the rice supply chain management, pricing and trade flows management; and (4) assess drought risk in index-based insurances.

This study, as one of the first research assessing and mapping vegetation indices for rice paddies in northern Iran, particularly contributes to (1) extracting the map of paddy rice fields in Mazandaran Province by using satellite-based data on cloud-computing technology in the Google Earth Engine platform; (2) providing the map of VCI and TCI for the period 2010–2019 based on MODIS data and (3) specifying the best index to describe rice yield through proposing different calculation methods for VHI.