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Article
Publication date: 5 March 2024

Robert Owusu Boakye, Lord Mensah, Sanghoon Kang and Kofi Osei

The study measures the total systemic risks and connectedness across commodities, stocks, exchange rates and bond markets in Africa during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Abstract

Purpose

The study measures the total systemic risks and connectedness across commodities, stocks, exchange rates and bond markets in Africa during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Design/methodology/approach

The study uses the Diebold-Yilmaz spillover and connectedness measures in a generalized VAR framework. The author calculates the net transmitters or receivers of shocks between two assets and visualizes their strength using a network analysis tool.

Findings

The study found low systemic risks across all assets and countries. However, we found higher systemic risks in the forex market than in the stock and bond markets, and in South Africa than in other countries. The dynamic analysis found time-varying connectedness return shocks, which increased during the peak periods of the first and second waves of the pandemic. We found both gold and oil as net receivers of shocks. Overall, over half of all assets were net receivers, and others were net transmitters of return shocks. The network connectedness plot shows high net pairwise connectedness from Morocco to South Africa stock market.

Practical implications

The study has implications for policymakers to develop the capacities of local investors and markets to limit portfolio outflows during a crisis.

Originality/value

Previous studies have analyzed spillovers across asset classes in a single country or a single asset across countries. This paper contributes to the literature on network connectedness across assets and countries.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 26 January 2024

Opeoluwa Adeniyi Adeosun, Suhaib Anagreh, Mosab I. Tabash and Xuan Vinh Vo

This paper aims to examine the return and volatility transmission among economic policy uncertainty (EPU), geopolitical risk (GPR), their interaction (EPGR) and five tradable…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to examine the return and volatility transmission among economic policy uncertainty (EPU), geopolitical risk (GPR), their interaction (EPGR) and five tradable precious metals: gold, silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium.

Design/methodology/approach

Applying time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) frequency-based connectedness approach to a data set spanning from January 1997 to February 2023, the study analyzes return and volatility connectedness separately, providing insights into how the data, in return and volatility forms, differ across time and frequency.

Findings

The results of the return connectedness show that gold, palladium and silver are affected more by EPU in the short term, while all precious metals are influenced by GPR in the short term. EPGR exhibits strong contributions to the system due to its elevated levels of policy uncertainty and extreme global risks. Palladium shows the highest reaction to EPGR, while silver shows the lowest. Return spillovers are generally time-varying and spike during critical global events. The volatility connectedness is long-term driven, suggesting that uncertainty and risk factors influence market participants’ long-term expectations. Notable peaks in total connectedness occurred during the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, with the latter being the highest.

Originality/value

Using the recently updated news-based uncertainty indicators, the study examines the time and frequency connectedness between key uncertainty measures and precious metals in their returns and volatility forms using the TVP-VAR frequency-based connectedness approach.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 3 March 2023

Muhammad Akram, Ahmed Imran Hunjra, Imran Riaz Malik and Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh Al-Faryan

Internationalization and financial deregulation have caused market participants and policymakers to consider the significance of financial connectedness and the spillover effects…

Abstract

Purpose

Internationalization and financial deregulation have caused market participants and policymakers to consider the significance of financial connectedness and the spillover effects of shocks. In this context, this research is a pioneering effort to investigate the direction and magnitude of return volatility spillovers between Pakistan’s financial markets and those of its key trade partners. This paper examines the relationship between return and volatility spillover in the financial markets of Pakistan and its major trading partners.

Design/methodology/approach

Ten countries are selected for empirical examination of dynamic connectedness among Pakistan and its major trading partner’s stock markets. This study utilizes a spillover index approach model and considers daily, weekly and monthly datasets spanning 25 years from 1995 to 2019.

Findings

The results indicate that stock markets provide efficient channels for return and volatility spillovers. Moreover, it is found that the intensity of spillovers during the financial crisis is more intense as these crises are major determinants of contagion; consequently, investors, speculators and policymakers use these events for their respective purposes.

Originality/value

Researchers, practitioners, policymakers and investors may all benefit from the findings in areas including risk management, portfolio diversification and trading methods.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 12 April 2024

Dimitrios Dimitriou, Eleftherios Goulas, Christos Kallandranis, Alexandros Tsioutsios and Thi Ngoc Bich Thi Ngoc Ta

This paper aims to examine potential diversification benefits between Eurozone (i.e. EURO STOXX 50) and key Asia markets: HSI (Hong Kong), KOSPI (South Korea), NIKKEI 225 (Japan…

17

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to examine potential diversification benefits between Eurozone (i.e. EURO STOXX 50) and key Asia markets: HSI (Hong Kong), KOSPI (South Korea), NIKKEI 225 (Japan) and TSEC (Taiwan). The sample covers the period from 04-01-2008 to 19-10-2023 in daily frequency.

Design/methodology/approach

The empirical investigation is based on the wavelet coherence analysis, which is a localized correlation coefficient in the time and frequency domain.

Findings

The results provide evidence that long-term diversification benefits exist between EURO STOXX and NIKKEI, EURO STOXX and KOSPI (after 2015) and there are signs for the pair and EURO STOXX-TSEC (after 2014). During the short term, there are signs of diversification benefits during the sample period. However, during the medium term, the diversification benefits seem to diminish.

Originality/value

These results have crucial implications for investors regarding the benefits of international portfolio diversification.

Details

Journal of Asia Business Studies, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1558-7894

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 8 May 2023

Emmanuel Joel Aikins Abakah, Aviral Kumar Tiwari, Johnson Ayobami Oliyide and Kingsley Opoku Appiah

This paper investigates the static and dynamic directional return spillovers and dependence among green investments, carbon markets, financial markets and commodity markets from…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper investigates the static and dynamic directional return spillovers and dependence among green investments, carbon markets, financial markets and commodity markets from January 2013 to September 2020.

Design/methodology/approach

This study employed both the quantile vector autoregression (QVAR) and time-varying parameter VAR (TVP-VAR) technique to examine the magnitude of static and dynamic directional spillovers and dependence of markets.

Findings

Results show that the magnitude of connectedness is extremely higher at quantile levels (q = 0.05 and q = 0.95) compared to those in the mean of the conditional distribution. This connotes that connectedness between green bonds and other assets increases with shock size for both negative and positive shocks. This further indicates that return shocks spread at a higher magnitude during extreme market conditions relative to normal periods. Additional analyses show the behavior of return transmission between green bond and other assets is asymmetric.

Practical implications

The findings of this study offer significant implications for portfolio investors, policymakers, regulatory authorities and investment community in terms of carefully assessing the unique characteristics offered by each markets in terms of return spillovers and dependence and diversifying the portfolios.

Originality/value

The study, first, uses a relatively new statistical technique, the QVAR advanced by Ando et al. (2018), to capture upper and lower tails’ quantile price connectedness and directional spillover. Therefore, the results possess adequate power against departure from mean-based conditional connectedness. Second, using a portfolio of green investments, carbon markets, financial markets and commodity markets, the uniqueness of this study lies in the examination of the static and dynamic dependence of the markets examined.

Details

International Journal of Managerial Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1743-9132

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 7 August 2023

Onur Polat

This study aims to scrutinize time-varying return and volatility interlinkages among major cryptocurrencies, NFT tokens and DeFi assets between 1 July 2018 and 19 February 2023…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to scrutinize time-varying return and volatility interlinkages among major cryptocurrencies, NFT tokens and DeFi assets between 1 July 2018 and 19 February 2023 and determine optimal portfolio allocations and hedging effectiveness under different portfolio construction techniques.

Design/methodology/approach

This work examines time-varying return and volatility interlinkages among major cryptocurrencies, NFT tokens, and DeFi assets between 1 July 2018 and 19 February 2023. To this end, the time-varying parameter-vector autoregression (TVP-VAR)-based connectedness methodology of Antonakakis et al. (2020) This approach is an extended version of the Diebold–Yilmaz (DY) method (Diebold and Yılmaz, 2014) and has advantages over the original DY. First, unlike the DY, it is free of the selection of a particular window size. Second, it has robustness for the outliers. Furthermore, following Broadstock et al. (2022), the author estimates time-varying optimal portfolio weights and hedging effectiveness under different portfolio construction scenarios.

Findings

This study's results indicate the following results: (1) The overall connectedness indices prominently capture well-known financial/geopolitical distress incidents; (2) the leading cryptocurrencies (ETH, BTC and BNB) are the largest transmitter of return shocks, while LINK and BTC are the largest transmitters/recipients of volatility shocks; (3) cryptocurrencies, NFTs and DeFi form distinct cluster groups in terms of return and volatility connectedness; (4) the connectedness networks estimated around the 2022 cryptocurrency crash and the FTX's filing for the bankruptcy are characterized by the strongest return and volatility interlinkages; (5) optimal portfolio strategies computed by different portfolio construction techniques display similar motifs and have sustained growth paths except for some short-lived drop backs.

Research limitations/implications

This study's findings imply several policy suggestions for investors, stakeholders and policymakers. First, the study's time-based dynamic interlinkages can help market participants in their optimal portfolio decisions. In particular, the persistent net receiving roles of the DeFi assets and the NFTs throughout the episode, especially around the financial/geopolitical turmoil, underpin their safe haven potentials (Umar et al., 2022a, b). Finally, since the total connectedness indices (TCIs) are prone to significantly increase around financial/geopolitical burst times, these tools can be valuable for policy makers to monitor risk.

Originality/value

The contribution of knowledge is at least threefold. First, the author focuses on the dynamic time interlinkages among major cryptocurrencies, NFTs and DeFi assets in July 2018 and February 2023 considering the prominent recent financial/geopolitical incidents. Second, the author estimates network topologies of dynamic connectedness around financial/geopolitical bursts and compared them in terms of interlinkages. Finally, the author calculates the time-varying optimal portfolio allocations and hedging effectiveness under different portfolio construction techniques.

Details

China Finance Review International, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-1398

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 25 March 2024

Suzan Dsouza, Narinder Pal Singh and Johnson Ayobami Oliyide

This study analyses the impact of the Covid-19 on stock market performance of BRICS nations together. BRICS countries comprise almost 30% of the global GDP and around 50% of the…

Abstract

Purpose

This study analyses the impact of the Covid-19 on stock market performance of BRICS nations together. BRICS countries comprise almost 30% of the global GDP and around 50% of the world’s economic growth. As BRICS nations have gained the attraction as financial investment destinations, their financial markets have apparently been as potential opportunities for foreign portfolio investors. While there is extensive research on the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on individual economies and global financial markets, this paper is among the first to systematically investigate the dynamic connectedness of these emerging economies during the pandemic using the Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressions (TVP-VAR) approach.

Design/methodology/approach

We categorise our data into two distinct periods: the pre-Covid period spanning from January 1, 2018, to March 10, 2020, and the Covid crisis period extending from March 11, 2020, to June 4, 2021. To achieve our research objectives, we employ the Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressions (TVP-VAR) approach to assess dynamic connectedness.

Findings

Our findings reveal that among the BRICS nations, Brazil and South Africa serve as net transmitters of shocks, while China and India act as net receivers of shocks during the Covid crisis. However, the total connectedness index (TCI) has exhibited a notable increase throughout this crisis period. This paper makes several notable contributions to the academic literature by offering a unique focus on BRICS economies during the Covid-19 pandemic, providing practical insights for stakeholders, emphasising the importance of risk management and investment strategy, exploring diversification implications and introducing advanced methodology for analysing interconnected financial markets.

Research limitations/implications

The results have important implications for the investors, the hedge funds, portfolio managers and the policymakers in BRICS stock markets. The investors, investment houses, portfolio managers and policymakers can develop investment strategies and policies in the light of the findings of this study to cope up the future pandemic crisis.

Originality/value

This study is one of its kind that examines the dynamic connectedness of BRICS with recently developed TVP-VAR approach across pandemic crisis.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 28 February 2023

Imran Yousaf, Walid Mensi, Xuan Vinh Vo and Sanghoon Kang

This study aims to examine the tail connectedness between the Chinese and Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) stock markets. More specifically, the authors measure the…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to examine the tail connectedness between the Chinese and Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) stock markets. More specifically, the authors measure the return spillovers at three quantile levels: median (t = 0.5), lower extreme (t = 0.05) and upper extreme (t = 0.95). The connectedness at extreme upper and lower quantiles provides insightful information to investors regarding tail risk propagation, which ultimately suggests that investors adjust their portfolios according to the extreme bullish and bearish market conditions.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors employ the quantile connectedness approach of Ando et al. (2022) to examine the quantile transmission mechanism among the ASEAN and Chinese stock markets.

Findings

The results show significant evidence of a higher level of connectedness between Chinese and ASEAN stock markets at extreme upper and lower quantiles compared to the median quantiles, which suggests the use of a quantile-based connectedness approach instead of an average-measure-based one. Furthermore, the time-varying connectedness analysis shows that the total spillovers reach the highest peaks during the global financial crisis, the Chinese stock market crash and the COVID-19 pandemic at the upper, lower and median quantiles. Finally, the static and dynamic pairwise spillovers between the Chinese and ASEAN markets vary over quantiles as well.

Originality/value

This study is the first attempt to examine quantile vector autoregression (VAR)-based return spillovers between China and ASEAN stock markets during different market statuses. Besides, the COVID-19 has intensified the uncertainty in Asian countries, mainly China and ASEAN economies.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 9 February 2023

Mahdi Ghaemi Asl, Rabeh Khalfaoui, Hamid Reza Tavakkoli and Sami Ben Jabeur

This study aims to investigate the relationship between stock markets, environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors and Shariah-compliant in an integrated framework.

436

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to investigate the relationship between stock markets, environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors and Shariah-compliant in an integrated framework.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors employ the multivariate factor stochastic volatility (mvFSV) framework to extract the volatility of the different sectoral indices. Based on this evidence, the authors employ the quantile vector autoregressive (QVAR) approach to examine the dynamic spillover connectedness among the aforementioned indices.

Findings

The study emphasizes the following major findings: (1) significant time-varying spillover connectedness across quantiles, (2) bidirectional and asymmetric spillover effect among the ESG index and the other sectoral indices, (3) the strength of spillover connectedness is time-varying across quantiles, (4) based on the perspective of portfolio optimization, ESG market is a significant strong forecasting contributor to conventional and Shariah-compliant markets, (5) overall, the findings point out serious quantile pass-through effect among ESG index and the other sectoral indices during the COVID-19 health crisis.

Originality/value

This study extends the previous literature in the following ways. First, to the best of the researchers’ knowledge, none of the existing studies have investigated the relationship between stock markets, ESG factors and Shariah-compliant in an integrated framework. Second, this study extends the previous scholarships by applying the mvFSV. Third, the authors propose a new rolling version to estimate dynamic spillovers, namely the rolling-window quantile VAR method. This approach provides a great advantage in computing the dynamics of return and variance spillover between variables in terms not only of the overall factor but also of the net (pairwise) aspect.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 20 June 2022

Achraf Ghorbel, Sahar Loukil and Walid Bahloul

This paper analyzes the connectedness with network among the major cryptocurrencies, the G7 stock indexes and the gold price over the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic…

2463

Abstract

Purpose

This paper analyzes the connectedness with network among the major cryptocurrencies, the G7 stock indexes and the gold price over the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic period, in 2020.

Design/methodology/approach

This study used a multivariate approach proposed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2009, 2012 and 2014).

Findings

For a stock index portfolio, the results of static connectedness showed a higher independence between the stock markets during the COVID-19 crisis. It is worth noting that in general, cryptocurrencies are diversifiers for a stock index portfolio, which enable to reduce volatility especially in the crisis period. Dynamic connectedness results do not significantly differ from those of the static connectedness, the authors just mention that the Bitcoin Gold becomes a net receiver. The scope of connectedness was maintained after the shock for most of the cryptocurrencies, except for the Dash and the Bitcoin Gold, which joined a previous level. In fact, the Bitcoin has always been the biggest net transmitter of volatility connectedness or spillovers during the crisis period. Maker is the biggest net-receiver of volatility from the global system. As for gold, the authors notice that it has remained a net receiver with a significant increase in the network reception during the crisis period, which confirms its safe haven.

Originality/value

Overall, the authors conclude that connectedness is shown to be conditional on the extent of economic and financial uncertainties marked by the propagation of the coronavirus while the Bitcoin Gold and Litecoin are the least receivers, leading to the conclusion that they can be diversifiers.

研究目的

本文分析於2020年2019冠狀病毒病肆虐期間、主要的加密貨幣、七國集團 (G7) 股價指數與黃金價格三者之間在網絡上的連通性。

研究設計/方法/理念

分析使用迪博爾德和耶爾馬茲 (Diebold and Yilmaz (2009, 2012, 2014)) 提出的多變量分析法。

研究結果

就一個股票指數投資組合而言,靜態連結的結果顯示、在2019冠狀病毒病肆虐期間,股票市場之間有更高的獨立性。值得我們注意的是:一般來說,加密貨幣在股票指數投資組合起著多元化投資作用,這可減低不穩定性,尤其是在危機時期。動態連結的結果與靜態連結的結果沒有顯著的分別。我們剛提到、比特幣黃金已成為純接收者。除了處於先前水平的達世幣和比特幣黃金外,就大部分的加密貨幣而言,連通的範圍在衝擊後都得以維持。事實上,在這危機時期,比特幣一直是波動性連結或溢出的最大淨傳播者。掛單者 (Maker) 是從全球系統中出現的最大波動淨接收者。至於黃金,我們注意到在危機時期、它仍然是在網絡接收方面擁有顯著增長的淨接收者,這確認其為安全的避難所。

研究的原創性/價值

總的來說,我們的結論是:連通性被確認為取決於標誌著受廣泛傳播的冠狀病毒影響下的經濟和金融欠缺穩定的程度,而比特幣黃金和萊特幣則是最小的接收者,這帶出一個結論、就是:比特幣黃金和萊特幣、可以成為多元化投資項目。

Details

European Journal of Management and Business Economics, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2444-8451

Keywords

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