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1 – 10 of over 2000Zaghum Umar, Francisco Jareño and Ana Escribano
This paper aims to examine the dynamic return and volatility connectedness for six major industrial metals (tin, lead, nickel, zinc, copper and aluminium) and the coronavirus…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to examine the dynamic return and volatility connectedness for six major industrial metals (tin, lead, nickel, zinc, copper and aluminium) and the coronavirus media coverage index (MCI).
Design/methodology/approach
To that purpose, this study applies the fresh time-varying parameter vector autoregression methodology (TVP–VAR model) during the sample period between 2 January, 2020, and 16 April, 2021, that is, covering the three waves of the COVID-19 pandemic crisis.
Findings
This study’s results show interesting findings. First, dynamic total return and volatility connectedness changes over time, highlighting a significant increase during the third wave of the pandemic. Second, the MCI index is a leading net transmitter in terms of return and volatility at the introduction of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus crisis. Third, this study clearly distinguishes two profiles among industrial metals: copper and tin/zinc as net transmitters and lead and aluminium as net receivers. Finally, the most relevant differences between them are concentrated not only at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic (first wave) but also during the second and third waves of the coronavirus outbreak.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first research that explores the dynamic return and volatility connectedness in the industrial metal market, applying the TVP–VAR methodology during the first waves of the COVID-19 pandemic crisis.
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Robert Owusu Boakye, Lord Mensah, Sanghoon Kang and Kofi Osei
The study measures the total systemic risks and connectedness across commodities, stocks, exchange rates and bond markets in Africa during the Covid-19 pandemic.
Abstract
Purpose
The study measures the total systemic risks and connectedness across commodities, stocks, exchange rates and bond markets in Africa during the Covid-19 pandemic.
Design/methodology/approach
The study uses the Diebold-Yilmaz spillover and connectedness measures in a generalized VAR framework. The author calculates the net transmitters or receivers of shocks between two assets and visualizes their strength using a network analysis tool.
Findings
The study found low systemic risks across all assets and countries. However, we found higher systemic risks in the forex market than in the stock and bond markets, and in South Africa than in other countries. The dynamic analysis found time-varying connectedness return shocks, which increased during the peak periods of the first and second waves of the pandemic. We found both gold and oil as net receivers of shocks. Overall, over half of all assets were net receivers, and others were net transmitters of return shocks. The network connectedness plot shows high net pairwise connectedness from Morocco to South Africa stock market.
Practical implications
The study has implications for policymakers to develop the capacities of local investors and markets to limit portfolio outflows during a crisis.
Originality/value
Previous studies have analyzed spillovers across asset classes in a single country or a single asset across countries. This paper contributes to the literature on network connectedness across assets and countries.
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Mourad Mroua and Hejer Bouattour
This paper examines the time-varying return connectedness between renewable energy, oil, precious metals, the Gulf Council Cooperation region and the United States stock markets…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper examines the time-varying return connectedness between renewable energy, oil, precious metals, the Gulf Council Cooperation region and the United States stock markets during two successive crises: the pandemic Covid-19 and the 2022 Russo-Ukrainian war. The main objective is to investigate the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russo-Ukrainian war on the connectedness between the considered stock markets.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper uses the time-varying parameter vector autoregression approach, which represents an extension of the Spillover approach (Diebold and Yilmaz, 2009, 2012, 2014), to examine the time-varying connectedness among stock markets.
Findings
This paper reflects the effect of the two crises on the stock markets in terms of shock transmission degree. We find that the United States and renewable energy stock markets are the main net emitters of shocks during the global period and not just during the two considered crises sub-periods. Oil stock market is both an emitter and a receiver of shocks against Gulf Council Cooperation region and United States markets during the full sample period, which may be due to price fluctuation especially during the two crises sub-periods, which suggests that the future is for renewable energy.
Originality/value
This paper examines the effect of the two recent and successive crises, the Covid-19 pandemic and the 2022 Russo-Ukrainian war, on the connectedness among traditional stock markets (the United States and Gulf Council Cooperation region) and commodities stock markets (renewable energy, oil and precious metals).
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Opeoluwa Adeniyi Adeosun, Suhaib Anagreh, Mosab I. Tabash and Xuan Vinh Vo
This paper aims to examine the return and volatility transmission among economic policy uncertainty (EPU), geopolitical risk (GPR), their interaction (EPGR) and five tradable…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to examine the return and volatility transmission among economic policy uncertainty (EPU), geopolitical risk (GPR), their interaction (EPGR) and five tradable precious metals: gold, silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium.
Design/methodology/approach
Applying time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) frequency-based connectedness approach to a data set spanning from January 1997 to February 2023, the study analyzes return and volatility connectedness separately, providing insights into how the data, in return and volatility forms, differ across time and frequency.
Findings
The results of the return connectedness show that gold, palladium and silver are affected more by EPU in the short term, while all precious metals are influenced by GPR in the short term. EPGR exhibits strong contributions to the system due to its elevated levels of policy uncertainty and extreme global risks. Palladium shows the highest reaction to EPGR, while silver shows the lowest. Return spillovers are generally time-varying and spike during critical global events. The volatility connectedness is long-term driven, suggesting that uncertainty and risk factors influence market participants’ long-term expectations. Notable peaks in total connectedness occurred during the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, with the latter being the highest.
Originality/value
Using the recently updated news-based uncertainty indicators, the study examines the time and frequency connectedness between key uncertainty measures and precious metals in their returns and volatility forms using the TVP-VAR frequency-based connectedness approach.
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Muhammad Akram, Ahmed Imran Hunjra, Imran Riaz Malik and Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh Al-Faryan
Internationalization and financial deregulation have caused market participants and policymakers to consider the significance of financial connectedness and the spillover effects…
Abstract
Purpose
Internationalization and financial deregulation have caused market participants and policymakers to consider the significance of financial connectedness and the spillover effects of shocks. In this context, this research is a pioneering effort to investigate the direction and magnitude of return volatility spillovers between Pakistan’s financial markets and those of its key trade partners. This paper examines the relationship between return and volatility spillover in the financial markets of Pakistan and its major trading partners.
Design/methodology/approach
Ten countries are selected for empirical examination of dynamic connectedness among Pakistan and its major trading partner’s stock markets. This study utilizes a spillover index approach model and considers daily, weekly and monthly datasets spanning 25 years from 1995 to 2019.
Findings
The results indicate that stock markets provide efficient channels for return and volatility spillovers. Moreover, it is found that the intensity of spillovers during the financial crisis is more intense as these crises are major determinants of contagion; consequently, investors, speculators and policymakers use these events for their respective purposes.
Originality/value
Researchers, practitioners, policymakers and investors may all benefit from the findings in areas including risk management, portfolio diversification and trading methods.
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KimHiang Liow, Xiaoxia Zhou, Qiang Li and Yuting Huang
The purpose of this paper is to revisit the dynamic linkages between the US and the national securitized real estate markets of each of the nine Asian-Pacific (APAC) economies in…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to revisit the dynamic linkages between the US and the national securitized real estate markets of each of the nine Asian-Pacific (APAC) economies in time-frequency domain.
Design/methodology/approach
Wavelet decomposition via multi-resolution analysis is employed as an empirical methodology to consider time-scale issue in studying the dynamic changes of the US–APAC cross-real estate interdependence.
Findings
The strength and direction of return correlation, return exogeneity, shock impulse response, market connectivity and causality interactions change when specific time-scales are involved. The US market correlates with the APAC markets weakly or moderately in the three investment horizons with increasing strength of lead-lag interdependence in the long-run. Moreover, there are shifts in the net total directional volatility connectivity effects at the five scales among the markets.
Research limitations/implications
Given the focus of the five approaches and associated indicators, the picture that emerges from the empirical results may not completely uniform. However, long-term investors and financial institutions should evaluate the time-scale based dynamics to derive a well-informed portfolio decision.
Practical implications
Future research is needed to ascertain whether the time-frequency findings can be generalizable to the regional and global context. Additional studies are required to identify the factors that contribute to the changes in the global and regional connectivity across the markets over the three investment horizons.
Originality/value
This study has successfully decomposed the various market linkage indicators into scale-dependent sub-components. As such, market integration in the Asia-Pacific real estate markets is a “multi-scale” phenomenon.
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Bashar Yaser Almansour, Muneer M. Alshater, Hazem Marashdeh, Mohamed Dhiaf and Osama F. Atayah
The purpose of this study is to investigate the dynamic return volatility connectedness among S&P, Dow Jones (DJ) sustainability indices and their conventional counterparts.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to investigate the dynamic return volatility connectedness among S&P, Dow Jones (DJ) sustainability indices and their conventional counterparts.
Design/methodology/approach
This study uses time-series daily data for 10 S&P and DJ indices over the period of December 1, 2012 to December 8, 2021. The authors divide the data into three periods; over the whole sample, pre and during the Covid-19 pandemic. The study adopts the connectedness approach developed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2014).
Findings
The results reveal a high degree of connectedness between S&P and DJ indices and their relative sustainability indices over the whole sample, pre and during the Covid-19 pandemic, indicating that the sustainability indices converge toward their conventional peers. The results further show that the conventional S&P500, S&P Euro 50 and DJWI are the main transmitters of shocks, whereas the S&P400, S&P500 and S&P50 sustainability indices are the main receivers of shocks.
Originality/value
The study provides novel insights in terms of shock transmission of S&P and DJ sustainability indices and their conventional counterparts, where there is a lack of investigation of the connectedness between indices in this field.
Practical implications
The study has significant implications for investors and portfolio managers to devise portfolio strategies to minimize risk and trace the cause, the direction and the magnitude of risk transmission among different indices. Also, the results help policymakers to manage diverse types of risks associated with S&P and DJ indices. Finally, faith-based and ethical investors would be able to predict the pairwise spillover connectedness between these indices.
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Matteo Foglia and Peng-Fei Dai
The purpose of this paper is to extend the literature on the spillovers across economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and cryptocurrency uncertainty indices.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to extend the literature on the spillovers across economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and cryptocurrency uncertainty indices.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper uses cross-country economic policy uncertainty indices and the novel data measuring the cryptocurrency price uncertainties over the period 2013–2021 to construct a sample of 946 observations and applies the time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) model to do an empirical study.
Findings
The findings suggest that there are cross-country spillovers of economic policy uncertainty. In addition, the total uncertainty spillover between economic policies and cryptocurrency peaked in 2015 before gradually decreasing in the following periods. Concomitantly, the cryptocurrency uncertainty has acted as the “receiver.” More importantly, the authors found the predictive power of economic policy uncertainty to predict the cryptocurrency uncertainty index. This paper’s results hold robust when using alternative measurement of cryptocurrency policy uncertainty.
Originality/value
This study is the first research that deeply investigates the association between two uncertainty indicators, namely economic policy uncertainty and the cryptocurrency uncertainty index. We provide fresh evidence about the dynamic connectedness between country-level economic policy uncertainty and the cryptocurrency index. Our work contributes a new channel driving the variants of uncertainties in the cryptocurrency market.
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Dimitrios Dimitriou, Eleftherios Goulas, Christos Kallandranis, Alexandros Tsioutsios and Thi Ngoc Bich Thi Ngoc Ta
This paper aims to examine potential diversification benefits between Eurozone (i.e. EURO STOXX 50) and key Asia markets: HSI (Hong Kong), KOSPI (South Korea), NIKKEI 225 (Japan…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to examine potential diversification benefits between Eurozone (i.e. EURO STOXX 50) and key Asia markets: HSI (Hong Kong), KOSPI (South Korea), NIKKEI 225 (Japan) and TSEC (Taiwan). The sample covers the period from 04-01-2008 to 19-10-2023 in daily frequency.
Design/methodology/approach
The empirical investigation is based on the wavelet coherence analysis, which is a localized correlation coefficient in the time and frequency domain.
Findings
The results provide evidence that long-term diversification benefits exist between EURO STOXX and NIKKEI, EURO STOXX and KOSPI (after 2015) and there are signs for the pair and EURO STOXX-TSEC (after 2014). During the short term, there are signs of diversification benefits during the sample period. However, during the medium term, the diversification benefits seem to diminish.
Originality/value
These results have crucial implications for investors regarding the benefits of international portfolio diversification.
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Barkha Dhingra, Shallu Batra, Vaibhav Aggarwal, Mahender Yadav and Pankaj Kumar
The increasing globalization and technological advancements have increased the information spillover on stock markets from various variables. However, there is a dearth of a…
Abstract
Purpose
The increasing globalization and technological advancements have increased the information spillover on stock markets from various variables. However, there is a dearth of a comprehensive review of how stock market volatility is influenced by macro and firm-level factors. Therefore, this study aims to fill this gap by systematically reviewing the major factors impacting stock market volatility.
Design/methodology/approach
This study uses a combination of bibliometric and systematic literature review techniques. A data set of 54 articles published in quality journals from the Australian Business Deans Council (ABDC) list is gathered from the Scopus database. This data set is used to determine the leading contributors and contributions. The content analysis of these articles sheds light on the factors influencing market volatility and the potential research directions in this subject area.
Findings
The findings show that researchers in this sector are becoming more interested in studying the association of stock markets with “cryptocurrencies” and “bitcoin” during “COVID-19.” The outcomes of this study indicate that most studies found oil prices, policy uncertainty and investor sentiments have a significant impact on market volatility. However, there were mixed results on the impact of institutional flows and algorithmic trading on stock volatility, and a consensus cannot be established. This study also identifies the gaps and paves the way for future research in this subject area.
Originality/value
This paper fills the gap in the existing literature by comprehensively reviewing the articles on major factors impacting stock market volatility highlighting the theoretical relationship and empirical results.
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