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Retail sales usually exhibit strong trend and seasonal patterns. Practitioners have typically used seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to predict retail sales exhibiting these patterns. Due to economic instability, recent retail sales time-series data show a higher degree of variability and nonlinearity, which makes the ARIMA model less accurate. This chapter demonstrates the feasibility and potential of applying empirical mode decomposition (EMD) in forecasting aggregate retail sales. The hybrid forecasting method of integrating EMD and neural network (EMD-NN) models was applied to two real data sets from two different time periods. The one-period ahead forecasts for both time periods show that EMD-NN outperforms the classical NN model and seasonal ARIMA. In addition, the findings also indicate that EMD-NN can significantly improve forecasting performance during the periods in which macroeconomic conditions are more volatile.

Reviews the three sales forecasting models most commonly applied in retail site evaluation: multiple regression analysis; multiple discriminant analysis; gravity models. Discusses the important issues involved in the development and application of these methods – including their respective strengths and weaknesses. Key points are that there is no “black box” method and that in the real world of retailing the methods reduce, but do not remove, the need for practical, subjective analysis.

In general, demand for functional products is dependent on a range of promotions offered in various retail outlets. To improve promotional sales many retailers collaborate with manufacturers for planning, forecasting and replenishment. The purpose of this paper is to hypothesize that collaborative forecasting will improve the forecast accuracy if all the partners can relate their demand forecast with underlying demand factors.

In this paper, the author uses a case study approach to study various demand factors of soft drink products of the UK based company which offers frequent promotions in retail outlets. The paper represents the case study findings in a conceptual framework called Reference Demand Model (RDM). Further, the case study findings are validated empirically by means of multiple linear regression analysis using actual sales data of the case company.

Surprisingly, some of the demand factors specified as very important by the case company are not found to be highly significant for actual sales. The paper uses the identified demand factors to suggest levels of collaboration.

Understanding the importance of product specific demand factors through regression models and incorporating the same in managerial decision making will aid managers to identify the necessary information to make accurate demand forecasts.

This approach unveils the presence of three levels of collaboration namely preparatory, progressive and futuristic levels among supply chain partners based on the information exchange. The proposed method will aid decision making on information sharing and collaborative planning among manufacturer and retailers for future promotional sales.

Machine learning methods have recently gained attention in business applications. We will explore the suitability of machine learning methods, particularly support vector regression (SVR) and radial basis function (RBF) approximation, in forecasting company sales. We compare the one-step-ahead forecast accuracy of these machine learning methods with traditional statistical forecasting techniques such as moving average (MA), exponential smoothing, and linear and quadratic trend regression on quarterly sales data of 43 Fortune 500 companies. Moreover, we implement an additive seasonal adjustment procedure on the quarterly sales data of 28 of the Fortune 500 companies whose time series exhibited seasonality, referred to as the seasonal group. Furthermore, we prove a mathematical property of this seasonal adjustment procedure that is useful in interpreting the resulting time series model. Our results show that the Gaussian form of a moving RBF model, with or without seasonal adjustment, is a promising method for forecasting company sales. In particular, the moving RBF-Gaussian model with seasonal adjustment yields generally better mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) values than the other methods on the sales data of 28 companies in the seasonal group. In addition, it is competitive with single exponential smoothing and better than the other methods on the sales data of the other 15 companies in the non-seasonal group.

The purpose of this paper is to capture the dynamic variations in sales of a product based upon the dynamic estimation of the time series data and propose a model that imitates the price discounting and promotion strategy for a product category in a retail organization. A modest attempt has been made in the study to capture the relationship between the sales promotion, price discount and the batch procurement strategy of a particular product category to maximize sales volume and profitability.

Time series data relating to sales have been used to model the sales estimates using moving average and proportional and derivative control; thereafter a sales forecast is generated to estimate the sales of a particular product category. This provides valuable inputs for taking lot sizing decisions regarding procurement of the products that considerably impact the sales promotion and intelligent pricing decisions. A conceptual framework is developed for modeling the dynamic price discounting strategy in retail using fuzzy logic.

The model captures the lag effect of sales promotion and price discounting strategy; other strategies have been formulated based upon the sales forecast that was done for taking the lot sizing decisions regarding procurement of products in the selected category. This has helped minimize the inventory cost thereby keeping the profitability of the retail organization intact.

There is no appropriate empirical data to verify the models. In light of the research approach (modeling based upon historical time series data of a particular product category) that was undertaken, there is a possibility that the research results may be valid for the product category that was selected. Therefore, the researchers are advised to test the proposed propositions further for other product categories.

The study provides valuable insight on how to use the real-time sales data for designing a dynamic automated model for product sales promotion and price discounting strategy using fuzzy logic for a retail organization.

The purpose of this paper is to capture the dynamic variations in sales of a product based upon the dynamic estimation of the time series data and propose a model that imitates the price discounting and promotion strategy for a product category in a retail organization.

Time series data relating to sales has been used to model the sales estimates using moving average and proportional and derivative control; thereafter a sales forecast is generated to estimate the sales of a particular product category. This provides valuable inputs for taking lot sizing decisions regarding procurement of the products and selection of suppliers. A hybrid model has been proposed and explained with a hypothetical case, which considerably impacts the sales promotion and intelligent pricing decisions.

A conceptual framework is developed for modeling the dynamic price discounting strategy in retail using fuzzy logic. The model imitates sales promotion and price discounting strategy. This has helped minimize the inventory cost thereby keeping the profitability of the retail organization intact.

There is no appropriate empirical data to verify the models. In light of the research approach (modeling based upon historical time series data of a particular product category) that was undertaken, there is a possibility that the research results may be valid for the product category that was selected. Therefore, the researchers are advised to test the proposed propositions further for other product categories.

The study provides valuable insight on how to use the real-time sales data for designing a dynamic automated model for product sales promotion and price discounting strategy using fuzzy logic for a retail organization.

In contrast to rents which are prescribed by contract to remain fixed or constant during the term of a lease, the expression variable rents simply implies that the rent to be paid during the tenure of occupancy will be subject to change with the passage of time.

Little research on the influence of external factors, such as weather and holiday periods, on retail sales on alcoholic beverages is available. This study aims to investigate how weekly retail sales of different alcoholic beverages vary in association with daily maximum temperatures and annual federal holidays across selected US counties in the years 2013 to 2015. The research provides information, which can contribute to better sales forecasts.

Secondary data of weekly retail sales (volume) of alcoholic beverages from 37,346 stores in 651 counties in the USA are analysed. The data cover on average 21% of all existing US counties and 12% of the total US off-trade retail sales of alcoholic beverages in the period studied (Euromonitor, 2017). Additional data of federal holidays and meteorological data are collated for each county in the sample. Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models with exogenous regressors (SARIMAX) are applied to develop forecasting models and to investigate possible relationships and effects.

The results indicate that off-trade retail sales of beer, liquor, red and white wine are temperature sensitive throughout the year, while contrary to expectations rosé, sparkling and other wines are not. Sales sensitivities to temperature also differ by geography. In the warmest regions, liquor and white wine sales do not respond to temperature changes, as opposed to the coolest regions, where they are responsive. Public holidays, particularly Easter, Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year holidays, represent a constant influencing factor on short-term sales increases for all investigated alcoholic beverage categories.

This is the first large-scale study of weather and holiday-related sales variations over time, across geographies and different alcoholic beverage categories. Seasonal and non-seasonal short-term sales variations are important for retailers and manufacturers alike. Accounting for expected changes in demand accommodates efficiencies along the supply chain and has implications for retail management, as well as adjusting marketing efforts in competing categories.

The purpose of this study is to select the appropriate forecasting model at the retail stage for selected vegetables on the basis of performance analysis.

Various forecasting models such as the Box–Jenkins-based auto-regressive integrated moving average model and machine learning-based algorithms such as long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, support vector regression (SVR), random forest regression, gradient boosting regression (GBR) and extreme GBR (XGBoost/XGBR) were proposed and applied (i.e. modeling, training, testing and predicting) at the retail stage for selected vegetables to forecast demand. The performance analysis (i.e. forecasting error analysis) was carried out to select the appropriate forecasting model at the retail stage for selected vegetables.

From the obtained results for a case environment, it was observed that the machine learning algorithms, namely LSTM and SVR, produced the better results in comparison with other different demand forecasting models.

The results obtained from the case environment cannot be generalized. However, it may be used for forecasting of different agriculture produces at the retail stage, capturing their demand environment.

The implementation of LSTM and SVR for the case situation at the retail stage will reduce the forecast error, daily retail inventory and fresh produce wastage and will increase the daily revenue.

The demand forecasting model selection for agriculture produce at the retail stage on the basis of performance analysis is a unique study where both traditional and non-traditional models were analyzed and compared.