Search results

The usual, simple and computationally expensive recovery payment method for a given reinsurance treaty, besides the total run-off triangle, builds a new run-off triangle, say recovery run-off triangle, for the reinsurer’s contribution and predicts the reinsurer’s contribution to the total loss reserves. This paper, without building a recovery run-off triangle, uses the available prior knowledge about a reinsurance treaty to predict the cedent’s loss reserve under five reinsurance treaties.

The authors propose a new solution to the problem of how to consider reserving issues when there is a reinsurance treaty for a portfolio of general insurance policies. Considering this when determining pricing or making capital decisions is very important.

In particular, it considers the quota share (QS) treaty, surplus (SPL) treaty, excess-of-loss (XL) treaty, largest claims reinsurance (LCR) treaty and excédent du coût moyen relatif (ECOMOR) treaty. Then, it develops a theoretical foundation for predicting the cedent’s loss reserve and evaluating such prediction using the mean square error of prediction (MSEP). The impact of such reinsurance treaties on the variability of the cedent’s loss reserve has been investigated through a simulation study.

This paper, without building a recovery run-off triangle, uses the available prior knowledge about a reinsurance treaty to predict the cedent’s loss reserve under five reinsurance treaties. In particular, it considers the QS treaty, SPL treaty, XL treaty, LCR treaty and ECOMOR treaty. Then, it develops a theoretical foundation for predicting the cedent’s loss reserve and evaluating such prediction using the MSEP. The impact of such reinsurance treaties on the variability of the cedent’s loss reserve has been investigated through a simulation study.

In this paper, the impact of stock-based compensation and further the joint effects of stock-based compensation and investor sentiment on pension discount rate choice is examined.

The hypotheses is tested using fixed effects models and instrumental variable analysis where pension discount rate is the dependent variable, and stock-based compensation and investor sentiment are our variables of interest.

It was found that pension discount rate is negatively associated with managers' stock-based compensation. Further analysis indicates that managers with larger stock-based compensation tend to adjust down their pension discount rates in higher (smaller) degree, responding to high (low) investor sentiment.

The findings provide important insights into how managers use pension discount rates to engage in earnings management. Understanding these relationships has implications for interpreting pension numbers reported in the financial statements and designing pension accounting rules that minimize the possibility that managers take advantage of the complexity associated with pension accounting to influence the reported earnings and executive compensation. Moreover, the findings suggest the need for increased attention from boards of directors, auditors and regulators to reported pension liabilities and service costs, especially for firms paying higher proportion of stock-based compensation to managers and during periods of high investor sentiment.

The findings contribute to the extant literature by identifying the joint impacts of stock-based compensation and investor sentiment as incentives for pension discount rate manipulation. The empirical results of this study also have important implications for corporate governance and regulation.

This conceptual article presents a schematic for use with extended cybernetic recursion in living systems and applies it to the issue of hyper vigilance as a demonstration of its utility.

The test-operate-test-exit (TOTE) schematic of Miller et al. (1960) is critically evaluated along with other schematics, including those of ordered cybernetics, and a new schematic is proposed, a recursive test-operate-test (rTOT), which emphasizes teleological purpose and hierarchical structure. The background psychophysiology of trauma is reviewed and then rTOT is applied to hyper vigilance, a cardinal component of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD).

Once the schematic was developed, it was applied to the behavior of hyper vigilance. Other applications are suggested.

As demonstrated, the rTOT schematic has potentially wide application because of its pragmatic and detailed structure.

The rTOT requires careful consideration of teleological purposes for its application and is simple enough, but also complex enough, for relevant utilization. Its compact nature and adjustable hierarchy scope are good mini-max complexity solutions for cybernetic, information modeling schematics.

The revealed teleological purpose of the trauma adaptation of hyper vigilance presents significant alternative formulation options for prevention and intervention.

While the rTOT schematic is derived from previous schematics, it is original in its emphasis on information processing, the teleological aspects of extended recursion and on the provision of a hierarchical structure for those recursions. It is considerably more compact than other schematics associated with the ordered cybernetics literature. The explication of the adaptation model for post-trauma consequences is significantly enhanced by the rTOT application.

This study evaluates the Federal Reserve (Fed) initial and final forecasts of the unemployment rate for 1983Q1-2018Q4. The Fed initial forecasts in a typical quarter are made in the first month (or immediately after), and the final forecasts are made in the third month of the quarter. The analysis also includes the private forecasts, which are made close to the end of the second month of the quarter.

In evaluating the multi-period forecasts, the study tests for systematic bias, directional accuracy, symmetric loss, equal forecast accuracy, encompassing and orthogonality. For every test equation, it employs the Newey–West procedure in order to obtain the standard errors corrected for both heteroscedasticity and inherent serial correlation.

Both Fed and private forecasts beat the naïve benchmark and predict directional change under symmetric loss. Fed final forecasts are more accurate than initial forecasts, meaning that predictive accuracy improves as more information becomes available. The private and Fed final forecasts contain distinct predictive information, but the latter produces significantly lower mean squared errors. The results are mixed when the study compares the private with the Fed initial forecasts. Additional results indicate that Fed (private) forecast errors are (are not) orthogonal to changes in consumer expectations about future unemployment. As such, consumer expectations can potentially help improve the accuracy of private forecasts.

Unlike many other studies, this study focuses on the unemployment rate, since it is an important indicator of the social cost of business cycles, and thus its forecasts are of special interest to policymakers, politicians and social scientists. Accurate unemployment rate forecasts, in particular, are essential for policymakers to design an optimal macroeconomic policy.

The purpose of this study is to empirically investigate how external debt vulnerability has affected the economy of emerging countries over time, with particular reference to Sub-Saharan African countries. It also deals with the policy issues associated with the economic effects.

The techniques of dynamic ordinary least squares and fully modified ordinary least squares are used in this investigation, covering the period 1990–2022. A panel of 43 Sub-Saharan African countries is used in the study.

The estimation results reveal that external debt vulnerability impacted negatively on economic growth, thus validating the concerns raised about the debt problem in Sub-Saharan Africa. Furthermore, the results revealed that domestic credit and openness of economy played a passive role and were therefore unable to cushion the adverse effect of debt vulnerability. Capital stock, however, stands out as the only variable that played a significant positive role in facilitating economic growth. The results are considered to be highly reliable for short-term forecast of economic growth and formulation of relevant policies.

Over the years, economic analysts and stakeholders have expressed concern about the inadequate ratio of foreign reserves to external debt in developing countries. The effect of this external debt vulnerability on the economy of these countries has yet to be given sufficient attention by researchers. In view of this perceived void, this current study is carried out to determine the economic and policy consequences of the problem.

Carbon storage in protected land is a practical climate stabilization strategy. It is increasingly being recognized as an essential means of safeguarding biomass carbon and improving local ecological conditions. Yet, increasing soil carbon sequestration by setting aside nature reserves does not depend only on the scale of the reserve but more so on the implementation and enforcement of the reserve protection policy. This paper aims to discuss the aforementioned issues.

The authors show how nature reserves established and managed by different administrative levels affect carbon sequestration. Empirically, the authors estimate a time-varying difference-in-difference model that exploits China's distinct four-layered hierarchical nature reserve management system at the county level.

The findings show that higher administrative level (i.e. national and provincial) nature reserves have no effects on the carbon dynamic. However, reserves managed by lower administrative levels (i.e. prefecture- and county-level) are associated with reduced carbon sequestration. The results imply local governments fail to fulfil their responsibilities for nature reserves protection, leading to increased extractive activities and declined ecological biomass.

Responsibility and accountability mechanisms for the violation of the nature reserves requirements need to be stipulated accordingly. Greater emphasis should be placed on nature reserves at the base level. The central government should continue efforts toward the establishment of ad hoc and independent management agencies at the ground-management level that are free of influence from base-level governments.

The heterogeneity in the performance of nature reserves across administrative levels confirms that ecosystem service quality is highly dependent on establishment, management and supervision. This provides a better understanding of the socio-ecological interdependence of protected areas.

This study aims to identify the economic impact of a potential implementation of a Climatic Reserve for the Swiss predominant white grape variety (Chasselas) vinified in the AOC (controlled designation of origin) category. The Climatic Reserve would imply the possibility of harvesting an additional quantity of grapes whose commercialization in wine would be delayed until it is approved by the relevant authority.

The impact of a potential implementation of this wine supply management tool is simulated through an innovative method that combines the vector autoregressive (VAR) model to estimate the influence of the previous consumptions and productions on the current consumption and linear regression [ordinary least square (OLS) method] to estimate the price elasticity to measure the evolution of the price depending on the simulated consumption. The VAR model is based on state-level data about production, stocks, and consumption (all the channels of distribution combined), while the OLS regression for estimating price elasticity uses the retail market data (Nielsen Panel). With the sales and price variables on a monthly frequency design, the latter represents about 40% of the wine market in Switzerland.

According to simulations carried out at the level of a region from the canton of Vaud in Switzerland (2000–2018), the increase in turnover linked to the release of the Climatic Reserve would be +3.1% for the indigenous white grape variety Chasselas.

The Climatic Reserve is a wine supply management tool that could complement the existing yield restriction, which does not significantly influence the quantities sold, according to previous studies. Our paper contributes to the literature by demonstrating the economic advantage of this supply management tool to deal with the increasingly frequent climatic hazards in wine production and market. The methodology could be applied to other wine regions (contexts) or other agricultural sectors.

This study investigates the effect of unproven energy reserve news on the volatility of energy firms' stocks. Thus, investors' perception of unproven energy reserves is revealed. Additionally, the study aims to determine whether the effect of the news changes according to time and volatility level.

The general autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) models consist of the energy reserve exploration news in Turkey for the period 2009–2022 and the volatility of 14 energy stocks.

The results indicate energy exploration news's negative and significant effect on volatility. According to empirical results, energy stock volatility is most affected in the first ten days. Besides, the results show that the significant models of energy reserve news in low-volatility stocks are proportionally higher than in high-volatility stocks.

Only unproved reserve news is included in the analysis, as sufficient confirmed reserves could not be reached during the sampling period. Further studies can compare proven and unproved reserve news effects. Additionally, a similar analysis can be conducted between Turkey and another country with a similar socio-economic character to examine different investor behaviors.

This research includes indications on managing investors' reactions to unproven energy reserve news.

This study contributes to the literature by analyzing unproven reserves. Contrary to previous studies, examining stock volatility also makes the study unique.

The purpose of this study is to examine whether audit quality influences auditees' liquidity policy.

The author uses ordinary least squares (OLS) estimators, and we focus on a panel of US publicly traded companies (36,118 company-year observations) over the period of 2004–2019 to examine the effect of audit quality on auditees' cash reserves.

The author finds that high quality audits are negatively related to auditees' cash reserves. Additional analyses show that the potential channel by which audit quality influences these reserves is financial constraints (FC). Particularly, his results suggest that an auditee's FC serve as an intermediary in the association between audit quality and auditee's cash reserves. Ultimately, we show that high quality audits raise the market value relevance of an extra dollar in cash reserves.

By linking two distinct research lines of audit quality and corporate cash reserves, this study adds to both lines of literature, as it is a novel one (to the best of the author’s knowledge) to provide evidence about the effect of audit quality on the auditees' liquidity policy (a real economic decision and internal financial policy) that ultimately boosts the auditees' investment efficiency. The author’s findings are consistent with influential monitoring and an insurance-like function of high quality audits in reducing information asymmetry and its consequences. His results also support the argument that auditees' transparency through high quality audits can be a pivotal determinant of their liquidity policy.