Search results

The Ethiopian economy is characterized by erratic and poor performance with negative growth rates, seven times over the period 1981-2010. This trapped per capita income at 358 USD in 2010 staying far away from middle-income country status. A lot of unsolved debates regarding perpetual growth, structural change and sectoral allocation of resource emerged overtime. The purpose of this paper is to examine the alternative effects of induced sectoral total factor productivity and makes comparisons of various sectoral growth options.

This study uses a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model based on neoclassical-structuralist thought. It also calibrates coefficients that capture the impacts of openness, imported capital and liberalization on sectoral total factor productivity growth using a model of vector auto-regressive with exogenous variables.

Future economic growth rate is expected to grow at a declining trend and to be dominated by the service sector. If it keeps growing on the current path it will expose the economy to a severe structural change burden problem. Openness induced agricultural total factor productivity highly improves the welfare of households while imported capital goods induced industrial total factor productivity is also better in fostering structural change of the economy. The broad-based growth option that combines the induced total factor productivity of all sectors also enables the economy to achieve more sustainable growth, rapid structural change and welfare gain at the same time.

There are intensive and charged debates regarding alternative sectoral growth options. However, the debate does not derive from a rigorous analysis and holistic economy-wide approach. It is rather affiliated with politics. Therefore, the paper is original and investigates these issues meticulously.

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the effects of investment growth in energy sectors of western areas of China on the local economy and emission of carbon dioxide (CO₂).

The paper is based on a two‐region, ten‐sector recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model which is based on the input‐output table of Shaanxi Province for 2002.

Three different scenarios are considered in a static analysis where the investment in the energy sector of western areas is increased at the rate of 20, 40 and 60 per cent. The changes of some macro‐economic variables are simulated under these scenarios. The long‐term effects on GDP and emission of CO₂ in different scenarios are also simulated. The results show that the GDP growth is 0‐8.92 per cent, households disposable income growth is 0‐8.94 per cent, and emission of CO₂ growth is 0‐11.10 per cent when the investment grows between 0 and 60 per cent. The oil and gas sector is the most effective sector whose growth rate is 0‐19.47 per cent. The effects of investment growth in base period are relatively big but weaken gradually over time in the long‐run.

The paper is of value in highlighting the importance (for policy makers) of considering the development and application of low‐emission technologies to prevent further environmental degradation.

This paper aims to explore the future path of agricultural development in China toward 2060 under the dual carbon goals, so as to inform better policy choices for facilitating agricultural and rural transformation toward the goal of maintaining food security, sustainable income growth and low carbon emission.

This study employs a single-country, multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium model, CHINAGEM model and develops eight illustrative scenarios to simulate the impacts of attaining dual carbon goals on agricultural development in China. Additional two scenarios have also been designed to inform better policy making with the aim to offset the negative impact of the decarbonization schemes through facilitating agricultural technology progress.

Dual carbon goals are projected to impose substantial negative impact on agricultural productions and consumptions in China in the coming four decades. Under the assumption of business as usual, agricultural production will reduce by 0.49–8.94% along with the attainment of carbon neutrality goal by 2060, with the production of cereals and high-value being more severely damaged. To mitigate the adverse impact of the decarbonization schemes, it is believed that fastening technology progress in agriculture is one of the most efficient ways for maintaining domestic food security without harming the dual carbon goals. In particular, if agricultural productivity (particularly, for cereals and high-value products) can be increased by another 1% per year, the production losses caused by carbon emission mitigation will be fully offset. This implies that promoting technology progress is still the best way to facilitate agricultural development and rural transformation in future China.

The paper contributes to the literature in better informing the impact of dual carbon goals on China's agriculture and the effectiveness of technology progress in agriculture on buffering the adverse impact of the decarbonization schemes and promoting agricultural development.

In this paper, we evaluated the impact of the US “Chip Act” on the participation of the Chinese electronics industry in the global value chain based on the dynamic CGE model. This is a meaningful attempt to use the GTAP-VA model to analyze the electronics industry in China.

We employ a Dynamic GTAP-VA Model to quantitatively evaluate the economic repercussions of the “Chip Act” on the Chinese electronic industries' GVC participation from 2023 to 2040.

The findings depict a discernible contraction in China’s electronic sector by 2040, marked by a −2.95% change in output, a −3.50% alteration in exports and a 0.45% increment in imports. Concurrently, the U.S., EU and certain Asian economies exhibit expansions within the electronic sector, indicating a GVC realignment. The “Chip Act” implementation precipitates a significant divergence in GVC participation across different countries and industries, notably impacting the electronics sector.

Through a meticulous temporal analysis, this manuscript unveils the nuanced economic shifts within the GVC, substantially bridging the empirical void in existing literature. This narrative accentuates the profound implications of policy regulations on global trade dynamics, contributing to the discourse on international economic policy and industry evolution.

We evaluated the impact of the US “Chip Act” on the participation of the Chinese electronics industry in the global value chain based on the dynamic CGE model. This is a meaningful attempt to use the GTAP-VA model to analyze the electronics industry in China.

The interaction between policy regulations and global value chain (GVC) dynamics is pivotal in understanding the contemporary global trade framework, especially within technology-driven sectors. The US “Chips Act” represents a significant regulatory milestone with potential ramifications on the Chinese electronic industries' engagement in the GVC.

The significance of this paper is that it quantifies for the first time the impact of the US Chip Act on the GVC participation index of East Asian countries in the context of US-China decoupling. With careful consideration of strategic aspects, this paper substantially fills the empirical gap in the existing literature by presenting subtle economic changes within GVCs, highlighting the profound implications of policy regulation on global trade dynamics.

The purpose of this study is to analyze long‐term (up to 2100) impacts of carbon tax based on the imputed price of carbon (ICT) from environmental and economic perspectives.

ICT is an international tax with tax rates that differ among countries according to their economic levels. It is evaluated by comparing it with an internationally common carbon tax (CCT), applying the AIM/CGE [Global] model, a dynamic computable general equilibrium model. The ICT rates are determined from a certain formula and the CCT rates are set to achieve global GDP changes equal to the case of ICT.

According to the results, the world CO₂ abatement amount is almost the same between the two taxes. However, the economic impact on each country is different. Although the negative influence is smaller in the case of CCT in developed countries, it is smaller in the case of ICT in developing countries. Moreover, ICT narrows economic disparities among developed and developing countries further. In the light of significance of the worldwide introduction of CO₂ abatement policies and avoidance of excessive economic burdens on developing countries, it is concluded that ICT is a more feasible carbon tax policy than CCT.

Although the impacts of ICT have been analyzed from static and mid‐term perspectives, understanding the long‐term dynamic impacts is still essential, considering the features of the tax and possible socioeconomic and technological changes, especially in developing countries. This study proposes a new policy method that will contribute to efforts to combat climate change in the long run.

In this paper, a recursive-dynamic CGE model is used to analyze forces that drive food self-sufficiency in Tunisia up to 2019, including domestic policies. We explore the impact of two policies, agricultural liberalization and increased government spending to raise yields, as well as the role of increased urbanization. Our results indicate the presence of trade-offs between the government goals of food self-sufficiency and improved welfare for both rural and urban households. The results for a scenario that combines liberalization, increased government spending on agriculture, and accelerated urbanization shows a stronger performance in terms of both self-sufficiency and welfare objectives.

Applying a computable general equilibrium model to assess the impact of tariffs between the US and China, Taiwan stands to gain from trade diversion of the trade war between the two largest world economies in the short term.

Initially, Taiwan suffered a minor loss from the sector-specific tariff on steel and aluminum imposed by the US. However, its loss is mitigated after counting counter measures from foreign countries. The cumulated US tariffs and China's retaliations led to trade diversion effect. Taiwan's initial loss from the steel and aluminum tariffs was over compensated by a series of trade war between the US and China.

Under the scenario of the cumulated tariffs of $250 billion of US imports and China's retaliations of $110 billion on US goods, the social welfare, exports, import and trade balance in Taiwan increased. Its terms of trade improved as well. Real wage increases slightly more for unskilled labor than for skilled labor. The short-term effect of the trade war has positive effect on all macro indicators of Taiwan's economy.

On sectoral shift, Taiwan's export will gain the most in precision engineering products ($2,941.6 million), followed by electronics ($310.7 million) and agricultural products ($31.3 million). The negative effects are in sectors such as business services ($58.323 million), other services ($46.9 million), transportation service ($36.6 million), trade service ($25.3 million), and finance service ($24.5 million). Taiwan's total imports will increase by 0.59%, whereas its total export will increase by 0.33%. However, total trade balance still increases by $451.1 million.

The study also finds that Taiwan has a high degree of overlapping export commodities with China in the US market, much higher than most major trading partners for the US, yet its market share for those products in the US is ranged from 1% to 5% only. Moreover, more than 60% of Taiwan's export to the US is in intermediate goods which have less product differentiation than those in final consumption goods. These two factors will provide an opportunity for Taiwan to exploit the US market.

Though the short-term effect of trade war is positive, Taiwan needs to have a long-range planning amid the external shocks. Policy implications for Taiwan are to map out a cosmopolitan view of its geo-strategy by diversifying outward foreign direct investment and trade destinations. It needs to reduce the “systemic risk” of relying on single market in China which is vulnerable to the uncertainty in the US–China relations. If the trade war lasts too long, Taiwan would need to reevaluate its triangular trade-investment nexus with China and the US as well as its role in the global supply chain.

Climate change and its imminent threat to human survival adversely impact the agriculture sector. In an impoverished country like The Gambia, economic costs of climate change are colossal. This study aims to establish a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for The Gambia’s agriculture sector to examine the effects of climate change on crops, livestock and sea-level rise.

This study used a CGE model with other climate change impact models to compute the impacts of climate change on The Gambia’s agriculture sector. The social accounting matrix calibrates the results from the various models, thereby generating the baseline results which exemplify a “steady-state” and policy shock results illustrating the medium- and long-term effects of climate change on the country’s agriculture sector.

The baseline results indicate the status quo showing the neglect of the agriculture sector due to limited investment in the sector. Hence, the sector is the “hardest hit” sector as a result of climate change. When the model factored in climate change in the medium term (2055) and long term (2085), the macroeconomic indicators of gross domestic product, national savings, wages, disposable income and consumer price index deteriorated, elucidating the vulnerability of the economy to climate change. The consumption of groundnuts, cattle and fish will decline by 5%, 5% and 4%, respectively, in the long term. However, the production of all agricultural commodities will decline by an average of 35% for the same period. The results for international trade show that exportation would decline while importation will increase over time. The general price level for agricultural commodities would increase by 3% in 2055 and 5% in 2085. Generally, the results manifest the severity of climate change in the agriculture sector which will have a multiplier effect on the economy. The impact of climate change would result in agriculture and economic decline causing hunger, poverty and human misery.

The caveat of this study revealed the nuances not captured by previous Gambian climate change studies, thus the novelty of the study.