Search results

An impassioned debate has been on in the academic and policy circles regarding the undervaluation of the renminbi (RMB) yuan. This issue has emerged as one of the most contentious and thought‐provoking in the discipline of international finance. That it is undervalued is widely acknowledged. With China's emergence as an economic superpower of the future, this debate no doubt has considerable merit and ramifications. This article looks sang froid at its undervaluation, 2005 revaluation and when should the RMB yuan be further appreciated. As the Chinese economy picks up further growth momentum, the currency appreciation is expected to accelerate. This article also examines the implications of further appreciation of the RMB yuan on the Chinese and Asian economies as well as its plausible impact over the bilateral imbalances between China and US economy.

The purpose of this study is mainly to investigate the stimulating effect on technology transactions of trade competition resultant from RMB appreciation.

This study uses Chinese provincial panel data from 1998 to 2015 and utilizes GMM method to estimate the stimulating effect of RMB appreciation on technical transactions through trade competition.

The results demonstrate that RMB appreciation can encourage enterprises to make use of domestic technology market resources for innovation. Specifically, the increase in imports due to the appreciation of RMB can generate technology spill-over and significantly promote technology trade. The export competition resultant from RMB appreciation can also encourage domestic and foreign enterprises to enhance export competitiveness through increased technology transactions.

The current research investigates the impact of exchange rate on independent innovation, but this study demonstrates the influence of exchange rate on technology transactions. In addition, the data in this study cover 1998–2015 in China and thus contributes to determining the effects of exchange rate appreciation in emerging countries.

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the implications of exchange rate fluctuations on China's national macro‐financial stability and evaluate current renminbi (RMB) appreciation speed and magnitude.

The contingent claims analysis method is used to construct the financial risk indicator and evaluate the macro‐financial risk. The paper also implemented computer simulations to generate different scenarios in the macro‐scenario analysis.

The main conclusion is that there is claims‐based currency mismatch in China's four major economic sectors. The simulation results show that faster appreciation leads to wide fluctuations on asset prices, the size of the base currency and foreign debt in China. In the current risk level, steady speed appreciation style is better than the accelerated appreciation style.

The results of this paper imply that current appreciation speed and magnitude are favorable to control macro‐financial risks within safe status, but China needs to promote the reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism in the future.

The paper is of historical value in applying the contingent claims analysis method to analyse the implications of exchange rate fluctuations. It provides a new way to measure whether the exchange rate is reasonable.

The purpose of this paper is to develop a model to analyze the role of exchange rate appreciation expectation in trade invoicing from the perspective of importers, then empirically analyze it using Japanese export data.

Constructing a theoretical model of importer behavior by analyzing the importer's utility function under an assumption such as “menu cost”, then using econometric method to justify the theoretical model's finding.

It was found that under the assumption of “menu cost”, risk neutrality and price rigidity, there are three directions of appreciation expectation's effect: increasing, unchanged and decreasing theoretically; but under common condition, only a large appreciation expectation will cause an importer to reduce the use of exporter's currency, and the role is constricted by exporters' bargaining capacity. The empirical results of Yen's use in Japan's exports justifies the model's conclusion and shows that commercial pressure and political events are the most important signals to form large appreciation expectation.

This paper has important policy implications for Renminbi (RMB)'s exchange rate policy under the context of RMB internationalization, in order to promote RMB's use in exports; China should control the large appreciation expectation of RMB and the best way is to rigorously tackle trade deficit with US and European countries, and to eliminate the explicit appreciation signal.

The paper analyzes the role of exchange rate appreciation in trade invoicing theoretically and empirically for the first time; and reasonably explains the development of currency invoicing in Japanese exports and contemporary Chinese exports, as well as having important policy implications for Chinese exchange rate policy.

This report examines the recent developments and trends relating to the Chinese government’s policy actions and the key issues that determine the choice of exchange rate regime in China. An up-to-date “stock-take” of the economic indicators is conducted to determine what is suitable for China in light of the rapidly evolving nature of the world economy and trading environment. This paper discusses the role of economic development, trade competitiveness, capital flow, foreign exchange reserve, and RMB internationalization in the determination of the RMB exchange rate regime.

This research uses an inductive approach to gain a fine-grained understanding of the complex, multifaceted aspects of China’s exchange rate policy. A combination of statistical analysis, including basic descriptive statistics, trend analysis, and a correlation study are used to explore the association between various indicators and their implications. The report also draws on analysis of a broad range of data sources and the work of numerous researchers and research institutions.

A more flexible exchange rate regime can play a complementary role towards rebalancing the Chinese economy by raising the buying capacity of families, rebalancing growth towards domestic consumption, and reducing reliance on export. China’s price elasticity of the demand for exports was relatively low that the appreciation of the Chinese currency has almost no influence on optimizing China’s trade balance. A more flexible two-way flow in RMB would be suitable under the current cash flow scenario in China. Reduced intervention will facilitate further adjustment in reserves. Lastly, in the early stage of RMB internationalization, flexibility in the exchange rate is one of the factors that influences its growth prospect as a reserve currency.

The findings and conclusion are derived based on the latest empirical information, statistical evidence, and economic theory. This inquiry does not build on a theory, and aims to neither verify a theory, nor test hypotheses. Rather, it aims to demonstrate, assess, and explain significant roles that various economic factors play in shaping the future exchange rate regime of China.

This paper presents the rationale behind a more flexible two-way exchange rate, by assessing the latest empirical data and theoretical explanation that support such a move.

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the “following” behavior of six currencies in East Asia to RMB before and after the “financial crisis”.

Using foreign exchange spot rate data from 2005 to 2013, the authors investigate the dynamic relationship of RMB and six East Asia currencies with method of DCC-GARCH and quantile regression.

The authors get such conclusions: first, most currencies indeed “follow” RMB in whole sample period but the correlation is “time-varying”; second, the degree of co-movement increased as a whole, which reflects that the influence of China in East Asia rose continuously; third, the East Asian currencies behaved differently before the crisis, but reveal some similarities after the crisis, and prefer to “follow” when RMB depreciates and reluctant to follow when RMB appreciates at a comparatively large degree. The authors argue that it may be related to the different macroeconomic environment faced by East Asia region before and after the crisis, the rising economic influence of China and the development of RMB internationalization’s practice.

The effort could strength the understanding to the “following” behavior of East Asia currencies to RMB, the authors also point out that RMB has been as regional currency anchor, but the role of anchor is unstable, and is affected by international economic circumstance, China should adapt some methods to strength RMB’s influence to East Asia currency.

The RMB Internationalization has a great impact on China’s domestic economy. This chapter applies the Gap Estimation approach to estimate the RMB overseas circulation amount from 1997 to 2015, as the indicator of RMB internationalization. Using the recently developed Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) method for the model identification and contemporaneous causality analysis. The structural vector auto regression (SVAR) model is constructed between the economic indicators (the interest rate, the CPI, and the exchange rate) and the RMB overseas circulation. The dynamic relationship and degree of mutual influence are further studied between the economic indicators and overseas circulation. The results show that there exist contemporaneous causalities of “from RMB overseas circulation to inflation rate,” “from exchange rate to overseas circulation,” and “from exchange rate to the inflation rate.” The influence of interest rate adjustment on macro economy presents the time lag effect. The internationalization of the RMB encourages the currency appreciation. The China’s Central Bank passively looses monetary policy to meet the needs of internationalization and reduce the shock of the international hot money, thereby further deepening the domestic inflation.

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the influence of different forms of RMB foreign exchange rates on Chinese foreign trade.

This paper constructed spatial panel model and Markov Chain Monte Carlo estimation method and collected the data of 25 countries’ (including China) quarterly macroeconomic data from first quarter of 1993 until third quarter of 2013 to conduct the data analysis.

This paper finds that USD/CNY, which is widely used in trade settlement, is more significant in effecting Chinese export. Totally, 1 percent appreciation of CNY against USD will lead to 1.532 percent decline of Chinese export, while 1 percent appreciation of CNY NEER only 0.42 percent. What is more, 1 percent increases of the volatility of USD/CNY results in 0.579 percent decline of Chinese export. As policy suggestions, we should further reform the foreign exchange derivative market in China, and provide more currency derivatives, so that the ability of Chinese economy to deal with foreign exchange risk could be improved.

Effect of exchange rate on imports and exports relates to the future direction of China’s exchange rate policy. This paper claims that China should accelerate the construction of foreign exchange derivatives market, improving the ability to respond quickly to foreign currency risk.

First, denominated exchange rate has more significant impact on the Chinese export trade to other countries than effective exchange rate. Second, the RMB exchange rate fluctuations also significantly affect the export trade. Third, China’s import and export trade have significant spatial effect.

This paper recommends the construction of the RMB currency futures market as soon as possible, providing a richer foreign exchange derivatives and other risk hedging instruments, thus to enhance the ability to respond to exchange rate risks.

This paper uses spatial panel model with the refined data to study various factors on the import and export trade, and thus more comprehensive analysis on the impact of the exchange rate on the import and export trade with other major countries.

The paper aims to investigate the determinants of China’s daily intervention in the foreign exchange market since the 2005 reform aimed at moving the Renminbi (RMB) exchange rate regime towards greater flexibility.

The paper uses bivariate probit models to test whether China’s intervention decision is driven by three sets of factors, comprising Model I (basic model), Model II and Model III.

Evidence from the models suggests that medium-term Chinese interventions tend to be leaning-against-the-wind, whereas long-term interventions are leaning-with-the-wind. Furthermore, by analyzing exchange rate volatility, this paper finds that intervention is used by the Chinese central bank to ensure that there are no big swings in the RMB exchange rate.

The paper will be of value to other researchers attempting to understand the policy of the central bank and, in particular, the factors that can lead to interventions during periods of financial crisis.

The paper aims to examine the relationship between changes and volatility of China's Renminbi (RMB) exchange rates and its agricultural export.

A GARCH(1, 1) model is specified to measure the exchange rate volatility and autoregressive distributed lag regression with structural break dummy variables is estimated based on the results of unit root test with structural break.

The export supply model reveals that the net trade effect of RMB exchange rate movements relies on the comparison of exchange rate level change (appreciation or depreciation) effect and exchange rate risk effect. The empirical examination results, taking China's agricultural exports to Japan as a case, show RMB depreciation against yen will promote export growth while appreciation hinder export, and exchange rate volatility positively stimulates agricultural exports to Japan. However, the effect of exchange rate volatility on the export is much smaller than that of exchange rate level, which leads to a negative net effect to the export.

The constructed model and applied methodology contribute to a better understanding of the relationship between changes and volatility of China's RMB exchange rates and its agricultural export.