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This paper aims to examine the factors that contribute to the external debt growth in Ghana.

The study adopts the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and the error correction model (ECM) to establish the short-run and long-run relationships between the dependent variable (external debt) and the independent variables (debt service, exchange rate, gross domestic product, government expenditure, import and trade openness), using a time series data spanning from 1990 to 2019.

The results indicate that debt service, GDP, government expenditure and trade openness have a positive and significant relationship with external debt, while import and exchange rates have a negative relationship with external debt in the long run. In the short run, debt service, import, exchange rate and trade openness have a positive and significant relationship with external debt, while GDP has a negative relationship with external debt.

The study found that variables such as government expenditure, debt service and import contribute significantly to the nation’s external debt stock. These findings suggest that policymakers should focus on prioritising and cutting down expenditure in their quest to curtail the debt menace facing the nation. Since existing debt service has the tendency of influencing debt stock, it is recommended that government should reduce borrowing in order avoid debt trap. Home-grown policies to reduce imports must also be encouraged. As these drivers of external debt are tackled head-on, Ghana can be rightly positioned to record lower levels of public debt and subsequently reap the benefits of economic growth.

The study adds to the public debt literature, specifically addressing the idiosyncratic determinants of external debt within the Ghanaian context.

This paper examines the short- and long-run effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) on tax revenue in Ghana.

The paper adopts the autoregressive distributed lag approach to estimate FDI’s long-run and short-run effects on tax revenue. The study uses time-series data from 1983 to 2019 for Ghana, mainly obtained from The Bank of Ghana, the World Bank and the IMF.

The results show that, in the short-run, FDI has no significant effect on direct tax revenue and total tax revenue but significantly hurts indirect tax revenue. In the long run, however, the results show that FDI has significant positive effects on indirect tax revenue and total tax revenue but no significant effect on direct tax revenue.

Empirical studies often fail to analyse the short-run and long-run effects of FDI on tax revenue. This study contributes to the mixed literature by analysing the short-run and long-run effects of FDI on tax revenue in an emerging market context. Additionally, this study employs three tax revenue measures in analysing the nexus.

In continuation to Chapter 3, the present chapter tries to quantify the impact of credit upon GDP and HDI as the first attempt and the linkages of NPA and security investments with credit, GDP and HDI of the countries as the second attempt. For these purposes, this chapter starts with the measurements of credit elasticity with respect to GDP and HDI to know the impact of credit on the private sectors upon the income and human development of the countries. Then, it focuses on the implications of common banking operating tools such as their investments in the governments’ securities in relation to credit to the private sectors, GDP and HDI of the selected countries in a panel data format. The results of the credit elasticity of GDP show that it has taken the positive sign in all of the countries and the negative changes are very little in number. Furthermore, the results on the linkages show that all the variables are mostly cointegrated and therefore maintain stable and equilibrium relationships in the long run among them. But the short-run results show that investment and credit make a cause to NPA, and investment and NPA make a cause to GDP. No variables make any interrelationships with the HDI in either the long-run or short-run systems. Thus, the countries in the list should put more emphasis on the working of the financial sectors as the key partner in the income-generating activities.

The purpose of this paper is to assess the long-run and short-run drivers of real house prices in Nigeria from 1991Q1 to 2020Q4.

Vector autoregression and cointegration tests were used to assess the key drivers of Nigeria’s real house prices in the long run and short run.

The empirical findings revealed that household disposable income is the most important determinant of house prices in Nigeria. House prices increased by 1.6% and 60.8% in response to a 1% increase in disposable income in the long run and short run, respectively, while real mortgage credits pushed up house prices by 5% and have no long-run effects, suggesting that most Nigerians depend on their money income rather than credits in securing a home. In addition, prices of oil sector products and real interest rates had negative and significant relationship with house prices, while positive correlations were found for real effective exchange rate and real housing investments regardless of the time horizon. The impact of construction costs and cement prices was also documented.

This is likely a pioneering study of its kind to focus on the determinants of real house prices in Nigeria. It is probably the first study, the best of the author’s knowledge, to empirically examine the impact of the oil sector on house prices in the country.

The purpose of this paper is to study the effect of government health expenditure on the health of children (under-five mortality rate and prevalence rate of stunting) among West African countries.

The study utilizes heterogeneous panel from the period 1990 to 2018 among 16 West African countries for the analysis. The effect of government health expenditure on under-five mortality rate is measured in per 1,000 live births while that of stunting is measured in percentage. The study employs Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimation technique and Impulse Response Functions (IRFs) for the analysis.

The results indicate that government health expenditure has negative effect on under-five mortality rate and prevalence rate of stunting in the long-run but not significant in the short-run. In addition, the IRFs result indicates that under-five mortality rate and prevalence rate of stunting both respond negatively to shocks in government health expenditure.

Governments should ensure that inefficiencies in the public health sector are reduced by licensing the health workers of this sector and allowing independent bodies to appoint the heads of health institutions. This will improve the delivering of health services for the health of children.

Previous studies carried out have not examined the short-run and long-run effects of the relationship under study among West African countries.

The peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-03-2022-0212

The purpose of this study is to estimate the impact of conflict witnessed in Pakistan on the enrolment rates of boys and girls. Pakistan has the world’s second-highest number of out-of-school children, with an estimated 22.8 million children aged 5–16 years not attending school.

By merging data on violence with the data on enrolment rates, this paper finds that exposure to violence is correlated with a decline in overall district-level enrolment rates in the short run at primary-level schools and middle-level schools.

However, for boys, violence is also negatively correlated with enrolment rates at middle-level schools in the medium run. One possible mechanism tested in this paper is the potential substitution of boys into the labour market during a period of conflict.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper adds to the existing literature in several ways. Firstly, the effect of conflict on the labour market by impacting schooling for boys and girls is examined for the first time in Pakistan. Secondly, the district-level data set on enrolment rates used for this study is novel and has not been used before for this type of analysis. Thirdly, while this study strengthens the evidence that the short run effects of conflict are stronger than the long-run effects, it also confirms the negative effects of conflict do not fade away immediately. Fourthly, this study emphasizes that each conflict is unique in terms of its heterogeneous effects across different cohorts, such as gender, as these effects are dependent on the mechanism through which conflict impacts each individual.

The design goal for the tracking interval of high-speed railway trains in China is 3 min, but it is difficult to achieve, and it is widely believed that it is mainly limited by the tracking interval of train arrivals. If the train arrival tracking interval can be compressed, it will be beneficial for China's high-speed railway to achieve a 3-min train tracking interval. The goal of this article is to study how to compress the train arrival tracking interval.

By simulating the process of dense train groups arriving at the station and stopping, the headway between train arrivals at the station was calculated, and the pattern of train arrival headway was obtained, changing the traditional understanding that the train arrival headway is considered the main factor limiting the headway of trains.

When the running speed of trains is high, the headway between trains is short, the length of the station approach throat area is considerable and frequent train arrivals at the station, the arrival headway for the first group or several groups of trains will exceed the headway, but the subsequent sets of trains will have a headway equal to the arrival headway. This convergence characteristic is obtained by appropriately increasing the running time.

According to this pattern, there is no need to overly emphasize the impact of train arrival headway on the headway. This plays an important role in compressing train headway and improving high-speed railway capacity.

The main purpose of this study is to examine the political economy of financial development in Ethiopia, specifically, to test the empirical relevance of the interest group theory of financial development in the context of Ethiopia.

The autoregressive distributive lag model to co-integration is applied to Ethiopia’s time series data from 1990 to 2020 to identify the long- and short-run effects of the political regime characteristics on financial development of the country.

The findings reveal that the degree of democracy in the political system (a proxy for narrow elites) was found to have a significant positive effect on financial development in the long run but has negatively affected financial development in the short run. Similarly, the political regime durability indicator shows a positive and statistically significant effect both in the long run and short run. The macroeconomic policy indicators which are used as control variables in this study reveal significant effects on the financial development of Ethiopia. Generally, the finding supports the interest group theory of financial development.

This paper is the original work on the effect of political regime characteristics on financial development in Ethiopia. Thus, it brings substantial value to studying determinants of financial development as it goes beyond the conventional determinants by considering the role of political power in the process of financial development.

This study aims to explore the short-run and long-run relationships and causality between economic growth and financialization in the new member states (NMS-11) and to provide some policy implications drawn from the empirical findings.

The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test approach to cointegration with the vector error correction model and the cumulative sum of squares (CUSUMQ) test for stability of functions is used between 1995q1 and 2021q4 to examine the existence of cointegration, relationships and causality between economic growth and financialization.

The findings of the ARDL bounds test demonstrate that the variables included in the models are bound together in the long run, as confirmed by the associated equilibrium correction. The estimated models indicate that the association between selected variables and economic growth is stronger and more statistically significant in the short run compared with the long run. Also, for NMS-11 understudied countries, short-run causality prevails over long-run causality. The changes in the level of financialization have a significant negative effect on the growth rates in the short run, which aligns with findings from previous empirical studies.

This study extends the existing very limited literature about short-run and long-run relationships and causality among economic growth and financialization, including inflation and unemployment variables, to determine their link in the NMS-11. Specifically, the present study reveals that the current level of financialization hampers economic growth and promoting such economic policies further can have adverse effects on the overall economic growth.

This study aims to explore the long- and short-run effects of daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 (C_t) on daily stock returns (R_t) for Kuwait. This is the first study that was applied to the case of Kuwait.

We employed the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model of Pesaran et al. (2001) and the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model of Shin et al. (2001) for daily data over the period March 2020 to August 2021.

The findings first document the existence of a long-run relationship (cointegration). Second, the findings of the ARDL model show a significant positive long-run effect of daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 (C_t) on daily stock returns (R_t) but a significant negative short-run effect. As for the NARDL model, the findings showed that the increase and decrease of daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 (Ct−1+,Ct−1−) have symmetric long-run effects on daily stock returns but asymmetric short-run effects. Finally, the vector error correction model causality test shows significant long- and short-run unidirectional causality running from daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 (C_t) to daily stock returns (R_t).

To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first study that was applied to the case of Kuwait.