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Open Access
Article
Publication date: 10 August 2022

Rama K. Malladi

Critics say cryptocurrencies are hard to predict and lack both economic value and accounting standards, while supporters argue they are revolutionary financial technology and a…

2636

Abstract

Purpose

Critics say cryptocurrencies are hard to predict and lack both economic value and accounting standards, while supporters argue they are revolutionary financial technology and a new asset class. This study aims to help accounting and financial modelers compare cryptocurrencies with other asset classes (such as gold, stocks and bond markets) and develop cryptocurrency forecast models.

Design/methodology/approach

Daily data from 12/31/2013 to 08/01/2020 (including the COVID-19 pandemic period) for the top six cryptocurrencies that constitute 80% of the market are used. Cryptocurrency price, return and volatility are forecasted using five traditional econometric techniques: pooled ordinary least squares (OLS) regression, fixed-effect model (FEM), random-effect model (REM), panel vector error correction model (VECM) and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH). Fama and French's five-factor analysis, a frequently used method to study stock returns, is conducted on cryptocurrency returns in a panel-data setting. Finally, an efficient frontier is produced with and without cryptocurrencies to see how adding cryptocurrencies to a portfolio makes a difference.

Findings

The seven findings in this analysis are summarized as follows: (1) VECM produces the best out-of-sample price forecast of cryptocurrency prices; (2) cryptocurrencies are unlike cash for accounting purposes as they are very volatile: the standard deviations of daily returns are several times larger than those of the other financial assets; (3) cryptocurrencies are not a substitute for gold as a safe-haven asset; (4) the five most significant determinants of cryptocurrency daily returns are emerging markets stock index, S&P 500 stock index, return on gold, volatility of daily returns and the volatility index (VIX); (5) their return volatility is persistent and can be forecasted using the GARCH model; (6) in a portfolio setting, cryptocurrencies exhibit negative alpha, high beta, similar to small and growth stocks and (7) a cryptocurrency portfolio offers more portfolio choices for investors and resembles a levered portfolio.

Practical implications

One of the tasks of the financial econometrics profession is building pro forma models that meet accounting standards and satisfy auditors. This paper undertook such activity by deploying traditional financial econometric methods and applying them to an emerging cryptocurrency asset class.

Originality/value

This paper attempts to contribute to the existing academic literature in three ways: Pro forma models for price forecasting: five established traditional econometric techniques (as opposed to novel methods) are deployed to forecast prices; Cryptocurrency as a group: instead of analyzing one currency at a time and running the risk of missing out on cross-sectional effects (as done by most other researchers), the top-six cryptocurrencies constitute 80% of the market, are analyzed together as a group using panel-data methods; Cryptocurrencies as financial assets in a portfolio: To understand the linkages between cryptocurrencies and traditional portfolio characteristics, an efficient frontier is produced with and without cryptocurrencies to see how adding cryptocurrencies to an investment portfolio makes a difference.

Details

China Accounting and Finance Review, vol. 25 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1029-807X

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 12 June 2020

Saganga Mussa Kapaya

The purpose of this paper is to contribute to empirical evidence by recognizing the importance of stock markets in the financial system and consequently its causality to economic…

7504

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to contribute to empirical evidence by recognizing the importance of stock markets in the financial system and consequently its causality to economic growth and vice versa.

Design/methodology/approach

The study used the autoregressive distribute lag model (ARDL) with bound testing procedures, the sample covered quarterly time-series data from 2001q1 to 2019q2 in Tanzania.

Findings

The results suggest that stock market development have both negative and positive causality for both short-run dynamics and long-run relationship with economic growth. Economic growth is found to only cause and relate negatively to liquidity both in the short-run and in the long-run. The results show predominantly a unidirectional causality flow from stock market development to economic growth and finds partial causality flow from economic growth to stock market development, as represented by stock market turnover which proxied liquidity.

Originality/value

The use of quarterly data to reflect more realistically the dynamics of the variables because yearly data may sometimes cover-up specific dynamics that may be useful for prediction and policy planning. The study uses indices to capture general aspects within the stock market against economic growth as an intuitive way to aggregate the stock market development effects.

Details

Review of Economics and Political Science, vol. 5 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2356-9980

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 2 May 2023

Michaelia Widjaja, Gaby and Shinta Amalina Hazrati Havidz

This study aims to identify the ability of gold and cryptocurrency (Cryptocurrency Uncertainty Index (UCRY) Price) as safe haven assets (SHA) for stocks and bonds in both…

2520

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to identify the ability of gold and cryptocurrency (Cryptocurrency Uncertainty Index (UCRY) Price) as safe haven assets (SHA) for stocks and bonds in both conventional (i.e. stock indices and government bonds) and Islamic markets (i.e. Islamic stock indices and Islamic bonds (IB)).

Design/methodology/approach

The authors employed the nonadditive panel quantile regression model by Powell (2016). It measured the safe haven characteristics of gold and UCRY Price for stock indices, government bonds, Islamic stocks, and IB under gold circumstances and level of cryptocurrency uncertainty, respectively. The period spanned from 11 March 2020 to 31 December 2021.

Findings

This study discovered three findings, including: (1) gold is a strong safe haven for stocks and bonds in conventional and Islamic markets under bearish conditions; (2) UCRY Price is a strong safe haven for conventional stocks and bonds but only a weak safe haven for Islamic stocks under high crypto uncertainty; and (3) gold offers a safe haven in both emerging and developed countries, while UCRY Price provides a better safe haven in developed than in emerging countries.

Practical implications

Gold always wins big for safe haven properties during unstable economy. It can also win over investors who consider shariah compliant products. Therefore, it should be included in an investor's portfolio. Meanwhile, cryptocurrencies are more common for developed countries. Thus, the governments and regulators of emerging countries need to provide more guidance around cryptocurrency so that the societies have better literacy. On top of that, the investors can consider crypto to mitigate risks but with limited safe haven functions.

Originality/value

The originality aspects of this study include: (1) four chosen assets from conventional and Islamic markets altogether (i.e. stock indices, government bonds, Islamic stock indices and IB); (2) indicator countries selected based on the most used and owned cryptocurrencies for the SHA study; and (3) the utilization of UCRY Price as a crypto indicator and a further examination of the SHA study toward four financial assets.

Details

European Journal of Management and Business Economics, vol. 33 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2444-8451

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 13 May 2022

Sue Ogilvy, Danny O'Brien, Rachel Lawrence and Mark Gardner

This paper aims to demonstrate methods that sustainability-conscious brands can use to include their primary producers in the measurement and reporting of the environment and…

2408

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to demonstrate methods that sustainability-conscious brands can use to include their primary producers in the measurement and reporting of the environment and sustainability performance of their supply chains. It explores three questions: How can farm businesses provide information required in sustainability reporting? What are the challenges and opportunities experienced in preparing and presenting the information? What future research and policy instruments might be needed to resolve these issues.

Design/methodology/approach

This study identifies and describes methods to provide the farm-level information needed for environmental performance and sustainability reporting frameworks. It demonstrates them by compiling natural capital accounts and environmental performance information for two wool producers in the grassy woodland biome of Eastern Australia; the contrasting history and management of these producers would be expected to result in different environmental performances.

Findings

The authors demonstrated an approach to NC accounting that is suitable for including primary producers in environmental performance reporting of supply chains and that can communicate whether individual producers are sustaining, improving or degrading their NC. Measurements suitable for informing farm management and for the estimation of supply chain performance can simultaneously produce information useful for aggregation to regional and national assessments.

Practical implications

The methods used should assist sustainability-conscious supply chains to more accurately assess the environmental performance of their primary producers and to use these assessments in selective sourcing strategies to improve supply chain performance. Empirical measures of environmental performance and natural capital have the potential to enable evaluation of the effectiveness of sustainability accounting frameworks in inducing businesses to reduce their environmental impacts and improve the condition of the natural capital they depend on.

Social implications

Two significant social implications exist for the inclusion of primary producers in the sustainability and environmental performance reporting of supply chains. Firstly, it presently takes considerable time and expense for producers to prepare this information. Governments and members of the supply chain should acknowledge the value of this information to their organisations and consider sharing some of the cost of its preparation with primary producers. Secondly, the “additionality” requirement commonly present in existing frameworks may perversely exclude already high-performing producers from being recognised. The methods proposed in this paper provide a way to resolve this.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this research is the first to describe detailed methods of collecting data for natural capital accounting and environmental performance reporting for individual farms and the first to compile the information and present it in a manner coherent with the Kering EP&L and the UN SEEA EA. The authors believe that this will make a significant contribution to the development of fair and standardised ways of measuring individual farm performance and the performance of food, beverage and apparel supply chains.

Details

Sustainability Accounting, Management and Policy Journal, vol. 13 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2040-8021

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 14 June 2022

Oluwaseun Damilola Ajayi and Omokolade Akinsomi

The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the literature on secondary equity offerings (SEOs) by examining the impact of the Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) policy on…

1711

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the literature on secondary equity offerings (SEOs) by examining the impact of the Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) policy on secondary equity offering (SEO) pricing dynamics of South African Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs).

Design/methodology/approach

With a sample of 152 SEOs of South African REITs from 2010 to 2020, ordinary least squares (OLS) models, fixed effect models, parametric and non-parametric tests were applied to test for the impact of BEE on the underpricing of SEOs.

Findings

Significant underpricing is discovered in highly compliant (BEE) REITs; in other words, SEOs pricing of BEE compliant REITs are more underpriced compared to non-compliant BEE REITs. With this, BEE compliant REITs and more so, highly compliant BEE REITs in particular leave more money on the table.

Practical implications

The government is therefore aware of the impact policy interventions play when REITs raise financing through SEOS. With these, highly compliant BEE REITs will need to be more strategic when making BEE compliance decisions as this is shown in our study to impact the underpricing of SEOs.

Originality/value

This is the first study to investigate SEO underpricing for the BEE policy using the South African REITs context.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 41 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 22 May 2023

Peter Palm and Helena Bohman

Real estate is a capital-intensive industry for which the asset values tend to be highly volatile and uncertain. Transaction costs in the industry are therefore high, and…

2213

Abstract

Purpose

Real estate is a capital-intensive industry for which the asset values tend to be highly volatile and uncertain. Transaction costs in the industry are therefore high, and transparency for investors may be low. The need to signal reliable estimates of property assets, in the communication to external stakeholders, can therefore be expected to be of extra importance in this sector. The purpose of this paper is to investigate how real estate firms use big four auditors to signal quality.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors use Swedish firm level data containing all limited liability real estate companies in the country to determine the determinants of big four auditors. The data set consists of 34,306 observations and is analyzed through logit regressions.

Findings

The results show that big four companies are primarily contracted by large and mature companies, rather than new firms or firms with volatile financial records, although the latter could be expected to have a large need to signal quality. The authors also find that firms listed on the stock market and firms targeting public use real estate are more inclined to use big four companies.

Originality/value

Real estate is a capital-intensive industry for which the asset values tend to be highly volatile and uncertain. Transaction costs in the industry are therefore high, and transparency for investors may be low. The need to signal reliable estimates of property assets, in the communication to external stakeholders, can therefore be expected to be of extra importance in this sector. No prior study of this area has been detected.

Details

Journal of European Real Estate Research, vol. 16 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-9269

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 15 August 2022

Ismail Olaleke Fasanya

In this paper, the author examines the role of uncertainty due to pandemic on the predictability of sectoral stock returns in South Africa. This is motivated by the ongoing global…

1020

Abstract

Purpose

In this paper, the author examines the role of uncertainty due to pandemic on the predictability of sectoral stock returns in South Africa. This is motivated by the ongoing global pandemic, COVID-19, in predicting sector stock returns.

Design/methodology/approach

The study considers estimation of dynamic panel data with dynamic common correlated effects estimator and two pair-wise forecast measures, namely Campbell and Thompson (2008) and Clark and West (2007) tests in dealing with the nested predictive models.

Findings

The results show that pandemic uncertainty has a negative and statistically significant effect on the different sector returns, implying that sector stock returns decline as the pandemic outbreak becomes more pronounced. While the single predictor model consistently outperforms the historical average model both for in-sample and out-of-sample, controlling for other macroeconomic variables effect improves the forecast accuracy of infectious diseases uncertainty. These results are consistently robust to both the in-sample and out-of-sample forecast periods, outliers and heterogeneity. These results have implications for portfolio diversification strategies, which we set aside for future research.

Originality/value

The empirical literature is satiated with studies on how news can predict economic and financial variables, however, the role of uncertainty due to infectious diseases in the stock return predictability especially at the sectoral level is less understudied, this is the main contribution of the study.

Details

African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, vol. 14 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2040-0705

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 21 March 2022

Maisam Abbasi and Liz Varga

The purpose of this research is to systematically review the properties of supply chains demonstrating that they are complex systems, and that the management of supply chains is…

3363

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this research is to systematically review the properties of supply chains demonstrating that they are complex systems, and that the management of supply chains is best achieved by steering rather than controlling these systems toward desired outcomes.

Design/methodology/approach

The research study was designed as both exploratory and explanatory. Data were collected from secondary sources using a comprehensive literature review process. In parallel with data collection, data were analyzed and synthesized.

Findings

The main finding is the introduction of an inductive framework for steering supply chains from a complex systems perspective by explaining why supply chains have properties of complex systems and how to deal with their complexity while steering them toward desired outcomes. Complexity properties are summarized in four inter-dependent categories: Structural, Dynamic, Behavioral and Decision making, which together enable the assessment of supply chains as complex systems. Furthermore, five mechanisms emerged for dealing with the complexity of supply chains: classification, modeling, measurement, relational analysis and handling.

Originality/value

Recognizing that supply chains are complex systems allows for a better grasp of the effect of positive feedback on change and transformation, and also interactions leading to dynamic equilibria, nonlinearity and the role of inter-organizational learning, as well as emerging capabilities, and existing trade-offs and paradoxical tensions in decision-making. It recognizes changing dynamics and the co-evolution of supply chain phenomena in different scales and contexts.

Details

European Journal of Management Studies, vol. 27 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2183-4172

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 22 May 2024

Liza Sällström Eriksson and Sofia Lidelöw

Energy-efficiency measures have always been important when renovating aging building stock. For property owners, window intervention is a recurring issue. Replacement is common to…

Abstract

Purpose

Energy-efficiency measures have always been important when renovating aging building stock. For property owners, window intervention is a recurring issue. Replacement is common to reduce operational heating energy (OHE) use, something many previous building renovation studies have considered. Maintaining rather than replacing windows has received less attention, especially for multi-residential buildings in a subarctic climate where there is great potential for OHE savings. The objective was to assess the life cycle (LC) climate impact and costs of three window maintenance and replacement options for a 1980s multi-residential building in subarctic Sweden.

Design/methodology/approach

The options’ embodied and operational impacts from material production, transportation and space heating were assessed using a life cycle assessment (LCA) focusing on global warming potential (LCA-GWP) and life cycle costing (LCC) with a 60-year reference study period. A sensitivity analysis was used to explore the impact of uncertain parameters on LCA-GWP and LCC outcomes.

Findings

Maintaining instead of replacing windows minimized LC climate impact and costs, except under a few specific conditions. The reduced OHE use from window replacement had a larger compensating effect on embodied global warming potential (E-GWP) than investment costs, i.e. replacement was primarily motivated from a LC climate perspective. The LCA-GWP results were more sensitive to changes in some uncertain parameters, while the LCC results were more robust.

Originality/value

The findings highlight the benefits of maintenance over replacement to reduce costs and decarbonize window interventions, challenging property owners’ preference to replace windows and emphasizing the significance of including maintenance activities in future renovation research.

Details

International Journal of Building Pathology and Adaptation, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2398-4708

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 17 November 2023

Doaa El-Diftar

The purpose of this research is to study the relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and stock market returns of the seven highest economic performing emerging countries…

3666

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this research is to study the relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and stock market returns of the seven highest economic performing emerging countries (E7).

Design/methodology/approach

The study is conducted using the daily data for exchange rates and stock market returns in each of the E7 countries from January 1, 2019, to January 1, 2022. The study employs the ordinary least squares, autoregressive distributed lag error correction regression and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH (1,1)) regression models to fully investigate the impact of exchange rate on stock markets. For further investigation, the GARCH (1,1) model is run twice for each country with and without the inclusion of exchange rate to determine its effect on the volatility of stock returns.

Findings

The findings support the presence of cointegration relationship between the variables for all countries. The results reveal significant positive long-run relationship between exchange rates and stock market returns in all countries except for Indonesia, which evidenced a significant negative impact. The results of the GARCH (1,1) add that the inclusion of exchange rate in the model accounts for a slight change in the volatility of stock returns.

Originality/value

The research provides empirical evidence that appreciating currencies are perceived positively by investors leading to better performing capital markets. The outcomes of this study may assist policy makers in understanding to what degree changes in exchange rates can influence capital markets, as well as narrow the gap in literature regarding which theory is more relevant in explaining how exchange rate fluctuations impact market values.

Details

Journal of Capital Markets Studies, vol. 7 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2514-4774

Keywords

1 – 10 of over 1000