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1. Probabilistic calculations of cost, and profit/loss using standard probability functions

2. Decision tree to find the expected monetary value (EMV) of different options.

3. Monte Carlo simulation for risk analysis.

4. Risk analysis in project management.

Learners will be able to understand and apply the following: how to approach uncertainty in business decisions using probabilistic calculations of cost, and profit/loss using standard probability functions; how to address uncertainty in business decisions by looking forward and reasoning backward, using the decision tree technique and the EMV of different decisions; how to analyse the risk inherent in business decisions by incorporating probability distributions for all critical variables in the form of Monte Carlo simulation; and appreciation of strategic considerations in risk analysis as it applies to project management

The case describes the challenge facing Vilas Birari, the owner and chief executive of Harsh Constructions, a construction company headquartered in Nasik, India. Birari had to decide on the bid for a construction project in September of 2021, during the COVID-19 (COVID) pandemic. Due to successive waves of the pandemic, the state and federal governments announced lockdowns intermittently, causing uncertainty in costs related to labor, material and project completion. The dilemma before Birari was how to set a bid price that was not so low as to incur a loss and not so high as to lose the bid to competitors. The uncertainty made Birari’s decision-making complex. The case invites students to help Birari find an optimum bid price by using various quantitative techniques, such as Monte Carlo simulation and decision trees.

This case is intended for students of management at a master’s level, in an elective course on management science, which is often also known as decision science. This compact case can be positioned in the second half of the course, when exploring risk management using computer simulation as a tool. The case serves both as an introduction to using simulation to manage uncertainty as well a contrast with simpler methods that are covered earlier in the course.

Teaching notes are available for educators only.

CSS 7: Management Science.

This case deals with several types of uncertainties faced by project team in an oil company north east in India. These challenges and uncertainties are in the areas drawing approval, supply chain, critical equipment availability, soll type, control room, soil type, employee availability, environmental clearances, safety and wildlife clearances. This project demonstrates the ownership issues, why it is difficult to complete a project on time in the Northeast of India or why public sector project gets delayed.

This is a case of a crisis project management which showcases the unpredictable nature of the project and the role of management in handling the crisis. It is the case of a very severe cyclonic storm hitting the city of Visakhapatnam plant during October, 2014. The whole city was devastated and so was the situation in the Steel plant as it was under zero power conditions for around 10 days. This case gives need for managing an integrated steel plant in case of very severe cyclonic storm and documents the sequence of events and managing unforeseen uncertainty using NTCP concepts.

Mr. Sajjan Jindal, MD of JVSL (nos JSW) wanted to bring the latest technology of iron making into India. His project went to several cost overrun and time overrun due to several foreseen and unforessen circumstances. This case discusses the issues new technology introduction in iron making area, problem faced by inexperienced contractor. It shows the need for proper risk management is required. It also shows the criticality of the project does not mean time cost trade off, but many other factors like reliability of the equipment, process and reliability of the equipment and plants.

Delhi Jal Board (DJB) is about to launch the first of three pilot Public Private Partnership (PPP) projects to improve water supply in Delhi. The case describes the past history of such projects and the design of new pilot projects, especially the terms of the concession agreements. This provides an opportunity for assessing the PPP Concession agreement in terms of incentivizing performance and simultaneously maintaining flexibility given project uncertainties.

Molly Madziva, who was born in Zimbabwe, was sent by her family to the USA to attend college. When she graduated in 2000 there were no jobs for her in Zimbabwe, as the economy was among the weakest in the world. While working as a software engineer at Bell Labs in New Jersey she decided that she wanted to help the people in her village of Macheke, the majority of who were farmers. Her idea would be an ambitious one. Molly called this the Macheke Sustainability Project. Molly met with various stakeholders who had an interest in the project. Following a thorough situation analysis and the formulation of a list of strategic initiatives, the major decision that she was left with was how to most effectively go about handling the implementation of the project. Her options included: a project within the Institute for Global Understanding at Monmouth University where she was enrolled as a graduate student; a non-profit business located in the USA; a non-governmental organization (NGO) located in Zimbabwe; and a private business in Zimbabwe. Each of these options had clear benefits. Molly was torn, however, as to which she should choose.

At the end of the case students will be able to:

1. Relate risk as one of the 12 principles in project management contemplated in the international standards of the PMBOK Seventh Edition guide.

2. Determine high-level risks by articulating the WBS and RBS of a construction project.

3. Perform a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the probability and impact of risks through the heat map tool and the Expected Monetary Value (EMV) technique.

4. Propose the different response strategies contemplated in the risk management through the formulation of a response and contingency plan.

MORESA S.A.S was a family company founded in 1994, whose value proposition focused on construction and permanent advice for the execution of innovative and contemporary projects with more than 27 years of experience in the city of San José de Cucuta, department of Norte de Santander, Colombia. The objective of the case is to Relate risk as one of the 12 principles in project management contemplated in the international standards of the PMBOK Seventh Edition guide; Determine high-level risks by articulating the WBS and RBS of a construction project; Perform a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the probability and impact of risks through the heat map tool and the Expected Monetary Value (EMV) technique and propose the different response strategies contemplated in the risk management through the formulation of a response and contingency plan. The teaching case is designed for academic programs in areas of knowledge of civil engineering, architecture and at postgraduate level such as: Master’s in civil engineering, Master’s in risk management, Master in project management or MBA. For this case, an expert judgment was developed with professionals belonging to different areas of knowledge. Likewise, secondary information was collected from the organization's strategic documents and the analogous estimation through the historical records of the project portfolio developed by the construction company. Finally, the case, classified in the Built Environment, a challenge that project managers must face in VUCA environment through risk management.

The teaching case is designed for academic programs in areas of knowledge of civil engineering, architecture and at postgraduate level such as: Master’s in civil engineering, Master’s in risk management, Master’s in project management or MBA. In the modules of risk management, project management, international standards, the case guides the applicability of methods and artifacts used in risk management considering the process identification, quantitative, qualitative analysis, and development of response strategies and contingency plans.

Teaching notes are available for educators only.

CSS 2: Built Environment.

The Waldorf property is a tract of land whose development value is uncertain. One acre must be preserved as wetlands: The seller claims that it is too small an amount, and the Corps of Engineers indicates that it could be large enough. The case offers students the opportunity to apply the tools of pro forma cash-flow forecasting, electronic-spreadsheet modeling, decision analysis, and discounted cash flow and to wrestle with risk aversion and develop creative alternatives for reducing the uncertainty.

The case deals with the unforeseen uncertainties faced by Reva, the first electric car of India, while entering the Indian market. The company was able to take up the challenge of making an energy efficient car. As a new product, Reva achieved operational success, developing an electric, low energy car. Its marketing strategies had limited consumer pull and had to be strengthened to gain consumer acceptance. The ecosystem worldwide is looking for support from governments on the concept and the infrastructure of this product category.

Infrastructure finance.

II MBA/Executive MBA (Project Finance, Infrastructure Finance).

It is generally believed that the economy of India is on the threshold of achieving significant growth in the coming years. The availability of adequate infrastructure facility will play a key role in realizing this growth potential. To accelerate the process of creating infrastructure capacity, the Government of India has opened up many infrastructure sectors for private sector investment. Creation of international standard airport facilities is an important component of such new infrastructure creation. This case study presents the initial development and financing closure of Bengaluru International Airport Limited (BIAL), the first major private sector airport in India. In retrospect, it is generally felt that BIAL was an important milestone in the privatization of airports in India. The blueprint for the greenfield PPP airport in Hyderabad was closely modelled on the BIAL project. The experience gained in the development of BIAL also played a major role in subsequent brownfield PPP airport expansion projects in Mumbai and Delhi.

The goal of this case study is to illustrate the complexities that exist in the process of infrastructure development and financing. This following are the expected learning outcomes:

• The importance of using an appropriate project structure.

• The prevalence of early returns to project sponsors as compared to lenders.

• The process of achieving financial closure.

• Analyzing project risks and returns.

The importance of using an appropriate project structure.

The prevalence of early returns to project sponsors as compared to lenders.

The process of achieving financial closure.

Analyzing project risks and returns.

Teaching notes.