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Article
Publication date: 1 September 2023

Shaghayegh Abolmakarem, Farshid Abdi, Kaveh Khalili-Damghani and Hosein Didehkhani

This paper aims to propose an improved version of portfolio optimization model through the prediction of the future behavior of stock returns using a combined wavelet-based long…

106

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to propose an improved version of portfolio optimization model through the prediction of the future behavior of stock returns using a combined wavelet-based long short-term memory (LSTM).

Design/methodology/approach

First, data are gathered and divided into two parts, namely, “past data” and “real data.” In the second stage, the wavelet transform is proposed to decompose the stock closing price time series into a set of coefficients. The derived coefficients are taken as an input to the LSTM model to predict the stock closing price time series and the “future data” is created. In the third stage, the mean-variance portfolio optimization problem (MVPOP) has iteratively been run using the “past,” “future” and “real” data sets. The epsilon-constraint method is adapted to generate the Pareto front for all three runes of MVPOP.

Findings

The real daily stock closing price time series of six stocks from the FTSE 100 between January 1, 2000, and December 30, 2020, is used to check the applicability and efficacy of the proposed approach. The comparisons of “future,” “past” and “real” Pareto fronts showed that the “future” Pareto front is closer to the “real” Pareto front. This demonstrates the efficacy and applicability of proposed approach.

Originality/value

Most of the classic Markowitz-based portfolio optimization models used past information to estimate the associated parameters of the stocks. This study revealed that the prediction of the future behavior of stock returns using a combined wavelet-based LSTM improved the performance of the portfolio.

Details

Journal of Modelling in Management, vol. 19 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-5664

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 8 August 2022

Mohammad Shahid, Zubair Ashraf, Mohd Shamim and Mohd Shamim Ansari

Optimum utilization of investments has always been considered one of the most crucial aspects of capital markets. Investment into various securities is the subject of portfolio…

Abstract

Purpose

Optimum utilization of investments has always been considered one of the most crucial aspects of capital markets. Investment into various securities is the subject of portfolio optimization intent to maximize return at minimum risk. In this series, a population-based evolutionary approach, stochastic fractal search (SFS), is derived from the natural growth phenomenon. This study aims to develop portfolio selection model using SFS approach to construct an efficient portfolio by optimizing the Sharpe ratio with risk budgeting constraints.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper proposes a constrained portfolio optimization model using the SFS approach with risk-budgeting constraints. SFS is an evolutionary method inspired by the natural growth process which has been modeled using the fractal theory. Experimental analysis has been conducted to determine the effectiveness of the proposed model by making comparisons with state-of-the-art from domain such as genetic algorithm, particle swarm optimization, simulated annealing and differential evolution. The real datasets of the Indian stock exchanges and datasets of global stock exchanges such as Nikkei 225, DAX 100, FTSE 100, Hang Seng31 and S&P 100 have been taken in the study.

Findings

The study confirms the better performance of the SFS model among its peers. Also, statistical analysis has been done using SPSS 20 to confirm the hypothesis developed in the experimental analysis.

Originality/value

In the recent past, researchers have already proposed a significant number of models to solve portfolio selection problems using the meta-heuristic approach. However, this is the first attempt to apply the SFS optimization approach to the problem.

Details

International Journal of Intelligent Computing and Cybernetics, vol. 16 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1756-378X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 30 June 2023

Hana Begić, Mario Galić and Uroš Klanšek

Ready-mix concrete delivery problem (RMCDP), a specific version of the vehicle routing problem (VRP), is a relevant supply-chain engineering task for construction management with…

Abstract

Purpose

Ready-mix concrete delivery problem (RMCDP), a specific version of the vehicle routing problem (VRP), is a relevant supply-chain engineering task for construction management with various formulations and solving methods. This problem can range from a simple scenario involving one source, one material and one destination to a more challenging and complex case involving multiple sources, multiple materials and multiple destinations. This paper presents an Internet of Things (IoT)-supported active building information modeling (BIM) system for optimized multi-project ready-mix concrete (RMC) delivery.

Design/methodology/approach

The presented system is BIM-based, IoT supported, dynamic and automatic input/output exchange to provide an optimal delivery program for multi-project ready-mix-concrete problem. The input parameters are extracted as real-time map-supported IoT data and transferred to the system via an application programming interface (API) into a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) optimization model developed to perform the optimization. The obtained optimization results are further integrated into BIM by conventional project management tools. To demonstrate the features of the suggested system, an RMCDP example was applied to solve that included four building sites, seven eligible concrete plants and three necessary RMC mixtures.

Findings

The system provides the optimum delivery schedule for multiple RMCs to multiple construction sites, as well as the optimum RMC quantities to be delivered, the quantities from each concrete plant that must be supplied, the best delivery routes, the optimum execution times for each construction site, and the total minimal costs, while also assuring the dynamic transfer of the optimized results back into the portfolio of multiple BIM projects. The system can generate as many solutions as needed by updating the real-time input parameters in terms of change of the routes, unit prices and availability of concrete plants.

Originality/value

The suggested system allows dynamic adjustments during the optimization process, andis adaptable to changes in input data also considering the real-time input data. The system is based on spreadsheets, which are widely used and common tool that most stakeholders already utilize daily, while also providing the possibility to apply a more specialized tool. Based on this, the RMCDP can be solved using both conventional and advanced optimization software, enabling the system to handle even large-scale tasks as necessary.

Details

Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0969-9988

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 21 November 2023

Patrice Gaillardetz and Saeb Hachem

By using higher moments, this paper extends the quadratic local risk-minimizing approach in a general discrete incomplete financial market. The local optimization subproblems are…

Abstract

Purpose

By using higher moments, this paper extends the quadratic local risk-minimizing approach in a general discrete incomplete financial market. The local optimization subproblems are convex or nonconvex, depending on the moment variants used in the modeling. Inspired by Lai et al. (2006), the authors propose a new multiobjective approach for the combination of moments that is transformed into a multigoal programming problem.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors evaluate financial derivatives with American features using local risk-minimizing strategies. The financial structure is in line with Schweizer (1988): the market is discrete, self-financing is not guaranteed, but deviations are controlled and reduced by minimizing the second moment. As for the quadratic approach, the algorithm proceeds backwardly.

Findings

In the context of evaluating American option, a transposition of this multigoal programming leads not only to nonconvex optimization subproblems but also to the undesirable fact that local zero deviations from self-financing are penalized. The analysis shows that issuers should consider some higher moments when evaluating contingent claims because they help reshape the distribution of global cumulative deviations from self-financing.

Practical implications

A detailed numerical analysis that compares all the moments or some combinations of them is performed.

Originality/value

The quadratic approach is extended by exploring other higher moments, positive combinations of moments and variants to enforce asymmetry. This study also investigates the impact of two types of exercise decisions and multiple assets.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 10 May 2023

Chetna Chetna and Dhiraj Sharma

Purpose: The present study aims to test the Quadratic Programming model for Optimal Portfolio selection empirically.Need for the Study: All the investors who buy financial…

Abstract

Purpose: The present study aims to test the Quadratic Programming model for Optimal Portfolio selection empirically.

Need for the Study: All the investors who buy financial products are motivated to obtain higher profits or, in other words, to maximise their returns. However, the high returns are often accompanied by higher risks, and avoiding such risks has become the primary concern for all investors. There is a great need for such a model to maximise profits and minimise risk, which can help design an investment portfolio with minimum risk and maximum return. The Quadratic Programming model is one such model which can be applied for selected shares to build an optimised portfolio.

Methodology: This study optimises the stock samples using a two-level screening of correlation coefficient and coefficient of variation. The monthly closing prices of the NSE-listed Indian pharmaceutical stocks from December 2019 to January 2022 have been used as sample data. The Lagrange Multiplier method is used to apply the model to achieve the optimal portfolio solution. Based on the market reality, the transaction costs have also been considered. The Quadratic programming model is further optimised to achieve the optimal portfolio for the select stocks.

Findings: The traditional portfolio theory and the modified quadratic model gives similar and consistent results. In other words, the modified quadratic model asserts the accuracy of the conventional portfolio model. The portfolio constructed in the present study gives a return much higher than the return of the benchmark portfolio of Nifty Fifty, indicating the usefulness of applying the Quadratic Programming model.

Practical Implications: The construction of an optimal portfolio using the traditional or modified Quadratic model can help investors make rational investment decisions for better returns with lower risks.

Article
Publication date: 13 July 2023

S.M. Taghavi, V. Ghezavati, H. Mohammadi Bidhandi and S.M.J. Mirzapour Al-e-Hashem

This paper proposes a two-level supply chain including suppliers and manufacturers. The purpose of this paper is to design a resilient fuzzy risk-averse supply portfolio selection…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper proposes a two-level supply chain including suppliers and manufacturers. The purpose of this paper is to design a resilient fuzzy risk-averse supply portfolio selection approach with lead-time sensitive manufacturers under partial and complete supply facility disruption in addition to the operational risk of imprecise demand to minimize the mean-risk costs. This problem is analyzed for a risk-averse decision maker, and the authors use the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) as a risk measure, which has particular applications in financial engineering.

Design/methodology/approach

The methodology of the current research includes two phases of conceptual model and mathematical model. In the conceptual model phase, a new supply portfolio selection problem is presented under disruption and operational risks for lead-time sensitive manufacturers and considers resilience strategies for risk-averse decision makers. In the mathematical model phase, the stages of risk-averse two-stage fuzzy-stochastic programming model are formulated according to the above conceptual model, which minimizes the mean-CVaR costs.

Findings

In this paper, several computational experiments were conducted with sensitivity analysis by GAMS (General algebraic modeling system) software to determine the efficiency and significance of the developed model. Results show that the sensitivity of manufacturers to the lead time as well as the occurrence of disruption and operational risks, significantly affect the structure of the supply portfolio selection; hence, manufacturers should be taken into account in the design of this problem.

Originality/value

The study proposes a new two-stage fuzzy-stochastic scenario-based mathematical programming model for the resilient supply portfolio selection for risk-averse decision-makers under disruption and operational risks. This model assumes that the manufacturers are sensitive to lead time, so the demand of manufacturers depends on the suppliers who provide them with services. To manage risks, this model also considers proactive (supplier fortification, pre-positioned emergency inventory) and reactive (revision of allocation decisions) resilience strategies.

Article
Publication date: 12 September 2023

Mohammad Hossein Dehghani Sadrabadi, Ahmad Makui, Rouzbeh Ghousi and Armin Jabbarzadeh

The adverse interactions between disruptions can increase the supply chain's vulnerability. Accordingly, establishing supply chain resilience to deal with disruptions and…

Abstract

Purpose

The adverse interactions between disruptions can increase the supply chain's vulnerability. Accordingly, establishing supply chain resilience to deal with disruptions and employing business continuity planning to preserve risk management achievements is of considerable importance. The aforementioned idea is discussed in this study.

Design/methodology/approach

This study proposes a multi-objective optimization model for employing business continuity management and organizational resilience in a supply chain for responding to multiple interrelated disruptions. The improved augmented e-constraint and the scenario-based robust optimization methods are adopted for multi-objective programming and dealing with uncertainty, respectively. A case study of the automotive battery manufacturing industry is also considered to ensure real-world conformity of the model.

Findings

The results indicate that interactions between disruptions remarkably increase the supply chain's vulnerability. Choosing a higher fortification level for the supply chain and foreign suppliers reduces disruption impacts on resources and improves the supply chain's resilience and business continuity. Facilities dispersion, fortification of facilities, lateral transshipment, order deferral policy, dynamic capacity planning and direct transportation of products to markets are the most efficient resilience strategies in the under-study industry.

Originality/value

Applying resource allocation planning and portfolio selection to adopt preventive and reactive resilience strategies simultaneously to manage multiple interrelated disruptions in a real-world automotive battery manufacturing industry, maintaining the long-term achievements of supply chain resilience using business continuity management and dynamic capacity planning are the main contributions of the presented paper.

Article
Publication date: 14 November 2023

Libiao Bai, Mengqin Yang, Tong Pan and Yichen Sun

Selecting and scheduling optimal project portfolio simultaneously is a complex decision-making problem faced by organizations to realize the strategy. However, dynamic synergy…

Abstract

Purpose

Selecting and scheduling optimal project portfolio simultaneously is a complex decision-making problem faced by organizations to realize the strategy. However, dynamic synergy relationships among projects complicate this problem. This study aims at constructing a project portfolio selection and scheduling (PPSS) model while quantifying the dynamic synergetic effects to provide decision support for managing PPSS problems.

Design/methodology/approach

This study develops a mathematical model for PPSS with the objective of maximal project portfolio benefits (PPBs). To make the results align with the strategy, comprehensive PPBs are divided into financial and non-financial aspects based on the balanced scorecard. Then, synergy benefits evolve dynamically in the time horizon, and system dynamics is employed to quantify them. Lastly, a case example is conducted to verify the applicability of the proposed model.

Findings

The proposed model is an applicable model for PPSS while incorporating dynamic synergy. It can help project managers obtain the results that which project should be selected and when it should start while achieving optimal PPBs.

Originality/value

This study complements prior PPSS research in two aspects. First, financial and non-financial PPBs are designed as new criteria for PPSS, making the results follow the strategy. Second, this study illuminates the dynamic characteristic of synergy and quantifies the synergetic effect. The proposed model provides insights into managing a PPSS effectively.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 28 December 2023

Cláudia Rafaela Saraiva de Melo Simões Nascimento, Adiel Teixeira de Almeida-Filho and Rachel Perez Palha

This paper proposes selecting a construction project portfolio in the context of a public institution, which makes it possible to assess quantitative and qualitative criteria…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper proposes selecting a construction project portfolio in the context of a public institution, which makes it possible to assess quantitative and qualitative criteria, thereby meeting the needs of the institution and the existing constraints.

Design/methodology/approach

The research design follows a framework using technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) associated with integer linear programming.

Findings

The method involves a flow of assessments allowing criteria and weights to be elicited where outcomes are based on the experts' intra-criteria assessment of alternatives and decision-makers' inter-criteria assessment. This is of utmost interest to public organizations, where selections must result in benefits and lower costs, integrating the experts' technical and management perspectives.

Social implications

Public institutions are characterized by having limited financial and personnel resources for project development despite having a high demand for requests not associated with profits, making it essential to have a framework that enables using multiple criteria to better evaluate the benefits related to these decisions.

Originality/value

The main contributions of this article are: (1) the proposition of a framework for selecting construction project portfolios considering the organization's strategic needs; (2) identifying quantitative and qualitative assessment criteria for project selection; (3) integrating TOPSIS with an optimization process for selecting the construction project portfolios and (4) providing a structured decision process for selecting the portfolio that best represents the interests of the institution within its limited resources and personnel.

Details

Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0969-9988

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 2 January 2023

Mehdi Namazi, Madjid Tavana, Emran Mohammadi and Ali Bonyadi Naeini

New business practices and the globalization of markets force firms to take innovation as the fundamental pillar of their competitive strategy. Research and Development (R&D…

Abstract

Purpose

New business practices and the globalization of markets force firms to take innovation as the fundamental pillar of their competitive strategy. Research and Development (R&D) plays a vital role in innovation. As technology advances and product life cycles become shorter, firms rely on R&D as a strategy to invigorate innovation. R&D project portfolio selection is a complex and challenging task. Despite the management's efforts to implement the best project portfolio selection practices, many projects continue to fail or miss their target. The problem is that selecting R&D projects requires a deep understanding of strategic vision and technical capabilities. However, many decision-makers lack technological insight or strategic vision. This article aims to provide a method to capitalize on the expertise of R&D professionals to assist managers in making informed and effective decisions. It also provides a framework for aligning the portfolio of R&D projects with the organizational vision and mission.

Design/methodology/approach

This article proposes a new strategic approach for R&D project portfolio selection using efficiency-uncertainty maps.

Findings

The proposed strategy plane helps decision-makers align R&D project portfolios with their strategies to combine a strategic view and numerical analysis in this research. The proposed strategy plane consists of four areas: Exploitation Zone, Challenge Zone, Desperation Zone and Discretion Zone. Mapping the project into this strategic plane would help decision-makers align their project portfolio according to the corporate perspectives.

Originality/value

The new approach combines the efficiency and uncertainty dimensions in portfolio selection into an integrated framework that: (i) provides a complete representation of the stochastic decision-making processes, (ii) models the endogenous uncertainty inherent in the project selection process and (iii) proposes a computationally practical and visually unique solution procedure for classifying desirable and undesirable R&D projects.

Details

Benchmarking: An International Journal, vol. 30 no. 10
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-5771

Keywords

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