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This paper aims to test three parametric models in pricing and hedging higher-order moment swaps. Using vanilla option prices from the volatility surface of the Euro Stoxx 50 Index, the paper shows that the pricing accuracy of these models is very satisfactory under four different pricing error functions. The result is that taking a position in a third moment swap considerably improves the performance of the standard hedge of a variance swap based on a static position in the log-contract and a dynamic trading strategy. The position in the third moment swap is taken by running a Monte Carlo simulation.

This paper undertook empirical tests of three parametric models. The aim of the paper is twofold: assess the pricing accuracy of these models and show how the classical hedge of the variance swap in terms of a position in a log-contract and a dynamic trading strategy can be significantly enhanced by using third-order moment swaps. The pricing accuracy was measured under four different pricing error functions. A Monte Carlo simulation was run to take a position in the third moment swap.

The results of the paper are twofold: the pricing accuracy of the Heston (1993) model and that of two Levy models with stochastic time and stochastic volatility are satisfactory; taking a position in third-order moment swaps can significantly improve the performance of the standard hedge of a variance swap.

The limitation is that these empirical tests are conducted on existing three parametric models. Maybe more critical insights could have been revealed had these tests been conducted in a brand new derivatives pricing model.

This work is 100 per cent original, and it undertook empirical tests of the pricing and hedging accuracy of existing three parametric models.

This paper aims to compare different univariate forecasting methods to provide a more accurate short-term forecasting model on the crude oil price for rendering a reference to manages.

Six different univariate methods, namely the classical decomposition model, the trigonometric regression model, the regression model with seasonal dummy variables, the grey forecast, the hybrid grey model and the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), have been used.

The authors found that the grey forecast is a reliable forecasting method for crude oil prices.

The contribution of this research study is using a small size of data and comparing the forecasting results of the six univariate methods. Three commonly used evaluation criteria, mean absolute error (MAE), root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute percent error (MAPE), were adopted to evaluate the model performance. The outcome of this work can help predict the crude oil price.

The purpose of this paper is to compare different models’ performance in modelling and forecasting the Finnish house price returns and volatility.

The competing models are the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model and autoregressive fractional integrated moving average (ARFIMA) model for house price returns. For house price volatility, the exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) model is competing with the fractional integrated GARCH (FIGARCH) and component GARCH (CGARCH) models.

Results reveal that, for modelling Finnish house price returns, the data set under study drives the performance of ARMA or ARFIMA model. The EGARCH model stands as the leading model for Finnish house price volatility modelling. The long memory models (ARFIMA, CGARCH and FIGARCH) provide superior out-of-sample forecasts for house price returns and volatility; they outperform their short memory counterparts in most regions. Additionally, the models’ in-sample fit performances vary from region to region, while in some areas, the models manifest a geographical pattern in their out-of-sample forecasting performances.

The research results have vital implications, namely, portfolio allocation, investment risk assessment and decision-making.

To the best of the author’s knowledge, for Finland, there has yet to be empirical forecasting of either house price returns or/and volatility. Therefore, this study aims to bridge that gap by comparing different models’ performance in modelling, as well as forecasting the house price returns and volatility of the studied market.

Predicting the stock market's prices has always been an interesting topic since its closely related to making money. Recently, the advances in natural language processing (NLP) have opened new perspectives for solving this task. The purpose of this paper is to show a state-of-the-art natural language approach to using language in predicting the stock market.

In this paper, the conventional statistical models for time-series prediction are implemented as a benchmark. Then, for methodological comparison, various state-of-the-art natural language models ranging from the baseline convolutional and recurrent neural network models to the most advanced transformer-based models are developed, implemented and tested.

Experimental results show that there is a correlation between the textual information in the news headlines and stock price prediction. The model based on the GRU (gated recurrent unit) cell with one linear layer, which takes pairs of the historical prices and the sentiment score calculated using transformer-based models, achieved the best result.

This study provides an insight into how to use NLP to improve stock price prediction and shows that there is a correlation between news headlines and stock price prediction.

Forecasts of commodity prices are vital issues to market participants and policy makers. Those of corn are of no exception, considering its strategic importance. In the present study, the authors assess the forecast problem for the weekly wholesale price index of yellow corn in China during January 1, 2010–January 10, 2020 period.

The authors employ the nonlinear auto-regressive neural network as the forecast tool and evaluate forecast performance of different model settings over algorithms, delays, hidden neurons and data splitting ratios in arriving at the final model.

The final model is relatively simple and leads to accurate and stable results. Particularly, it generates relative root mean square errors of 1.05%, 1.08% and 1.03% for training, validation and testing, respectively.

Through the analysis, the study shows usefulness of the neural network technique for commodity price forecasts. The results might serve as technical forecasts on a standalone basis or be combined with other fundamental forecasts for perspectives of price trends and corresponding policy analysis.

The assessment of the Real Estate (RE) prices depends on multiple factors that traditional evaluation methods often struggle to fully understand. Housing prices, in particular, are the foundations for a better knowledge of the Built Environment and its characteristics. Recently, Machine Learning (ML) techniques, which are a subset of Artificial Intelligence, are gaining momentum in solving complex, non-linear problems like house price forecasting. Hence, this study deployed three popular ML techniques to predict dwelling prices in two cities in Italy.

An extensive dataset about house prices is collected through API protocol in two cities in North Italy, namely Brescia and Varese. This data is used to train and test three most popular ML models, i.e. ElasticNet, XGBoost and Artificial Neural Network, in order to predict house prices with six different features.

The models' performance was evaluated using the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) score. The results showed that the artificial neural network performed better than the others in predicting house prices, with a MAE 5% lower than the second-best model (which was the XGBoost).

All the models had an accuracy drop in forecasting the most expensive cases, probably due to a lack of data.

The accessibility and easiness of the proposed model will allow future users to predict house prices with different datasets. Alternatively, further research may implement a different model using neural networks, knowing that they work better for this kind of task.

To date, this is the first comparison of the three most popular ML models that are usually employed when predicting house prices.

This paper aims to investigate the relevance of two groups of valuations models as follows: the accounting models based on the residual income (RIM) and the standard market model, on equity price, return and volatility relevance.

The models are tested on companies traded on Palestine exchange from 2009 to 2018, using panel regression analysis. Two-price and two-return models derived from RIM to compare with the market model and four volatility models.

The standard RIM outperformed other models in equity price modeling. The dividend discount model (DDM) outperformed the rest of the models in terms of return estimation. However, the authors find that the market model can explain equity variance better than RIM and DDM models.

For investors, market beta does not necessarily capture all relevant factors of value and traditional financial statements are still important in providing relevant information and different models are used for different values perspectives (price, return and volatility).

Previous studies focus on comparing the price and return relevance of accounting-based models (RIM and cash flow models). Three aspects differentiate this paper and contribute to its originality, namely, the uniqueness of the context, incorporating the market model into the picture along with the accounting-based models and adding Volatility dimensions of relevance.

Perhaps the most popular pricing model among Bitcoin enthusiasts is the stock-to-flow (S2F) model. The model gained significant traction after successfully predicting the meteoric rise of Bitcoin prices from late 2020 to early 2021. This paper dissects the S2F model for Bitcoin empirically to determine its viability and investigate whether investors can profit from an S2F-based trading strategy.

This paper, dissects the S2F model for Bitcoin by putting it through a battery of tests to examine its design, characteristics, robustness and appropriateness.

Overall, this paper finds the S2F model to be insensitive to differing assumptions in the early stages of the model, alleviating concerns about data mining. This paper produces a dynamic S2F model with no peek-ahead bias and shows evidence that prediction accuracy increases over time. Finally, this paper shows that a dynamic trading strategy that goes long (short) when Bitcoin is undervalued (overvalued) according to S2F is far less profitable than a classic buy-and-hold strategy.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first paper to analyze the S2F model in an academic setting by providing a rigorous assessment of the model's construction. This paper demonstrates how the model can be implemented realistically without the peek-ahead bias, creating a tool that can be used contemporaneously by investors.

The purpose of this study is to determine whether the fine wine market is efficient between homogeneous lots and heterogeneous lots.

Auction price data for homogeneous (or solid) lots of fine wines was analyzed to create price prediction models. Those models were used to predict the expected auction price for the bottles within heterogeneous lots. Lastly, models were created to explain and predict the differences between expected and realized prices for heterogenous wine lots.

The results show that large inefficiencies exist. The more complex and expensive the heterogeneous lot, the greater the discount relative to what would have been realized if the bottles had been sold individually. This discount can exceed 50% of the expected auction price.

Heterogeneous lots may arise as a practical requirement from the auction house. Restaurant buyers probably have little interest in such lots because of the inclusion of wines the restaurant will be unable to sell. Collectors may be uniquely positioned to benefit from this price discount.

These results are unique in the literature, because the price dynamics of heterogeneous (or mixed) lots of fine wines have not previously been studied.

The primary objective of this study is to investigate whether the inclusion of convertible bond prices as important inputs into artificial neural networks can lead to improved accuracy in predicting Chinese stock prices. This novel approach aims to uncover the latent potential inherent in convertible bond dynamics, ultimately resulting in enhanced precision when forecasting stock prices.

The authors employed two machine learning models, namely the backpropagation neural network (BPNN) model and the extreme learning machine neural networks (ELMNN) model, on empirical Chinese financial time series data.

The results showed that the convertible bond price had a strong predictive power for low-market-value stocks but not for high-market-value stocks. The BPNN algorithm performed better than the ELMNN algorithm in predicting stock prices using the convertible bond price as an input indicator for low-market-value stocks. In contrast, ELMNN showed a significant decrease in prediction accuracy when the convertible bond price was added.

This study represents the initial endeavor to integrate convertible bond data into both the BPNN model and the ELMNN model for the purpose of predicting Chinese stock prices.