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Article
Publication date: 10 April 2017

Ozcan Saritas and Ilya Kuzminov

This paper aims to analyse the mainstream and emerging global challenges and trends in the global agriculture sector. The analysis leads to a discussion on the present state of…

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Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to analyse the mainstream and emerging global challenges and trends in the global agriculture sector. The analysis leads to a discussion on the present state of the Russian agroindustry and possible future strategies for adaptation in the context of the rapidly changing global environment.

Design/methodology/approach

The design of this study is based on the application of the core methods of Foresight. First, a trend analysis is undertaken using reviews and expert methods. Trends identified are mapped using a social, technological, economic, environmental, political and value (STEEPV) framework to ensure that a broad range of trends are covered, which may be stemming from various factors affecting the agriculture sector. The analysis of the big picture of global trends and challenges, interacting with country-specific structural factors, translates are translated into the opportunities and threats, which will in turn help to develop possible strategies for adaptation.

Findings

This study develops two adaptive strategies for the development of the Russian agroindustry that are feasible in different short- and long–term time horizons. The first strategy is considered to be the most likely choice for the period before 2020. It includes radical imports’ substitution (of commodities as well as machinery and high-tech components) for ensuring national food security with inevitable temporary setbacks in efficiency and labour productivity. The second strategy, which becomes feasible after 2020, considers re-integrating Russia into global supply chains and expanding commodities exports (volumes and nomenclature) based on full-scale technological modernization with the use of international capital.

Research limitations/implications

The study design is based on the assumption that Russia’s position as a country, which is highly self-sufficient on basic agricultural products and large exporter of crop commodities and fertilizers, will remain unchanged in the horizon of at least 20 years. However, long-term forecasts should also scrutinize the possibility of radical structural changes. Therefore, future research should concentrate on wild cards that can completely disrupt and transform the Russian agriculture industry and as well as the whole economy.

Practical implications

This paper suggests a number of recommendations on national science and technology policy for the three main industries of the Russian agricultural sector: crop husbandry, animal breeding and food processing (the fisheries sector is excluded from the scope of this paper). In addition, this paper proposes a number of measures towards alleviating the institutional barriers to raise the investment attractiveness of the sector.

Originality/value

The novelty of this paper lies in the originality of the research topic and methodology. The Russian agricultural sector has rarely been studied in the context of global agricultural challenges and threats taken on the highest level of aggregation beyond commodity market analysis or agro-climatic and logistics factors. There are few or no studies that lay out a map of possible long-term strategies of Russian agroindustry adaptive development. The Foresight methodology applied in this study is customized to better fit the practical purposes of the study.

Details

foresight, vol. 19 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 11 September 2017

Ozcan Saritas, Yury Dranev and Alexander Chulok

Dynamic changes in the world bring challenges for making long-term future-oriented policy and strategy. A number of recent developments like drops in oil prices, increasing global…

Abstract

Purpose

Dynamic changes in the world bring challenges for making long-term future-oriented policy and strategy. A number of recent developments like drops in oil prices, increasing global conflicts, mass immigration and economic stagnation have had disruptive effects on long-term policies and strategies. The purpose of this paper is to provide a dynamic and adaptive Foresight approach as required by the fast-changing global landscape.

Design/methodology/approach

The scenario approach presented in the paper aims to develop multiple time horizons by bringing together short-term forecasts and long-term exploratory and visionary scenarios. Each time horizon allows for re-considering and dynamically changing drivers and assumptions of scenarios and thus builds not a single linear, but multiple and dynamic pathways into the future. Following the presentation on the background and description of the methodology, the paper illustrates the proposed approach with a case study on science and technology (S&T) development in Russia.

Findings

The flexible scenario approach allows developing and strategies with similar adaptability and flexibility.

Practical implications

The scenario approach presented in the paper may be applicable for Foresight exercises at all levels of governance, including national, international, regional and corporate.

Originality/value

A novel scenario approach is presented for the formulation of S&T policy with an illustrative case study.

Details

foresight, vol. 19 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 14 August 2017

Ayhan Aydogdu, Serhat Burmaoglu, Ozcan Saritas and Serhat Cakir

Technologies are constantly developed to address new demands and provide further opportunities. Owing to a number of potential application areas of nanotechnologies within this…

Abstract

Purpose

Technologies are constantly developed to address new demands and provide further opportunities. Owing to a number of potential application areas of nanotechnologies within this sector, the purpose of this study is to take defense as a case and propose a strategic roadmap for the use of nanotechnologies in the Turkish Defense Industry.

Design/methodology/approach

The study presented in this paper uses a bibliometric analysis of the most cited publications in the past decade with the aim of identifying the trends in the development of nanotechnology. Interviews were carried out with experts based on the featured words of bibliometric analysis (nanoparticles, nanostructure, self-assembly, drug delivery, graphene, etc.) to reveal the commercialization time of nanotechnology products and applications. After that, a survey was carried out with engineers for determining the possible emergence time of nanotechnology applications and/or products used in military up to year 2035. Finally, a roadmap was created based on the obtained data from bibliometric analysis, interviews and survey results.

Findings

Nanotechnology roadmap was prepared, one which would contribute to the preparation of the defense industry for the future and help in keeping up with technological developments.

Research limitations/implications

Because of the chosen research approach, the research results may lack generalizability. Therefore, researchers are encouraged to test the proposed propositions further. Interviews and surveys have limitation with the bounded rationality of corresponders.

Practical implications

The paper proposed a nanotechnology roadmap for the defense sector with a data-led foresight practice.

Originality/value

Performing such a study is considered to be crucial for the armies of developed and developing countries, so that the military sector also avails benefits from this revolutionary technology. Quantitative and qualitative methods were mixed for developing the roadmap.

Details

foresight, vol. 19 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 25 February 2019

Sarah Lai-Yin Cheah, Yinping Yang and Ozcan Saritas

This paper aims to discuss a foresight study conducted in Singapore’s national R&D agency to help science and technology decision makers identify key capability areas of R&D…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to discuss a foresight study conducted in Singapore’s national R&D agency to help science and technology decision makers identify key capability areas of R&D investment to support the manufacturing industry’s growth in the country and the region.

Design/methodology/approach

Using horizon scanning, scenario analysis and expert opinion, nine capabilities are identified as core areas to be developed to support the country’s future growth of product-service systems.

Findings

The results of a Delphi survey involving 30 industry and academic thought leaders recommend priorities of these capabilities. This paper concludes with a discussion of the study implications for theory, research and practice in the domain of servitisation and product-service systems.

Research limitations/implications

The foresight study presented here on the future of servitisation in Singapore demonstrates one of the first fully fledged applications of foresight in constructing a coherent vision of future product-service system markets. In this study, the authors applied systemic foresight methodology (SFM) comprising the first six phases: initiation (scoping), intelligence (scanning), imagination (scenarios), integration (priorities), interpretation (strategies) and implementation (action).For future research, an ideal step would be to proceed with the final phase of the SFM, impact, to develop indicators for servitisation and to monitor and evaluate the transition process.

Practical implications

Manufacturing and services are no longer distinct concepts with a clear divide. Manufacturing firms not only become more service dependent but also produce and provide services for their consumers. This transformation towards servitisation implies fundamental re-organisation of the production and management practices. Furthermore, through new business models, new and loyal customers will be gained, which will in turn bring additional income, while making the companies less prone to economic and business fluctuations.

Social implications

The results of this study have practical implications for policymakers of public and private sectors that are interested in playing a key role in future product-service system innovation. These have implications for developing the human and intellectual capital that are required for supporting the future innovation. Institutes of higher learning and vocational institutes should also consider incorporating new curricula and modules to build the capabilities for knowledge creation and transfer.

Originality/value

The findings of the present study on strategic growth areas and relevant critical capabilities provide new directions for research in the field of servitisation. Among the nine capabilities identified, the top three were advanced customer intelligence capability, socio-physical service quality, traceability and maintainability and integrated strategic decision-making. From the results, it is apparent that advanced customer intelligence capability is both an area of importance to Singapore and the world.

Details

foresight, vol. 21 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 21 April 2023

Sercan Ozcan and Ozcan Saritas

This study aims to develop the first Theory of Technological Response and Progress in Chaos (TRPC) and examine the case of technological development during the COVID-19 pandemic…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to develop the first Theory of Technological Response and Progress in Chaos (TRPC) and examine the case of technological development during the COVID-19 pandemic. The research objectives of this study were to: identify the key technologies that act as a response mechanism during the chaos event, specifically in the case of COVID-19; examine how technologies evolve, develop and diffuse in an immediate crisis and a chaotic environment; theorise various types and periods of technological response and progress during the emergence of chaos and the stages that unfold; and develop policy-oriented recommendations and establish technological foundations to address subsequent chaos events.

Design/methodology/approach

This study used the grounded theory as a methodology with a mixed-method approach that included quantitative and qualitative methods. The authors used the quantitative method to assist with the qualitative step to build the TRPC theory. Accordingly, this study integrated machine learning and text mining approaches to the qualitative data analysis following the steps of the grounded theory approach.

Findings

As a result of the TRPC theory development process, the authors identified three types of technologies (survival, essential and enhancement technologies) and five types of periods (stable, initial, survival-dominant, essential-dominant and enhancement-dominant periods) that are specific to chaos-technology interactions. The policy implications of this study demonstrate that a required technological base and know-how must be established before a chaotic event emerges.

Research limitations/implications

Concerning the limitations of this study, social media data has advantages over other data sources, such as the examination of dynamic areas and analyses of immediate responses to chaos. However, other researchers can examine publications and patent sources to augment the findings concerning scientific approaches and new inventions in relation to COVID-19 and other chaos-specific developments. The authors developed the TRPC theory by studying the COVID-19 pandemic, however, other researchers can utilise it to study other chaos-related conditions, such as chaotic events that are caused by natural disasters. Other scholars can investigate the technological response and progress pattern in other rapidly emerging chaotic events of an uncertain and complex nature to augment these findings.

Practical implications

Following the indications of the OECD (2021a) and considering the study conducted by the European Parliamentary Research Service (Kritikos, 2020), the authors identified the key technologies that are significant for chaos and COVID-19 response using machine learning and text intelligence approach. Accordingly, the authors mapped all technological developments using clustering approaches, and examined the technological progress within the immediate chaos period using social media data.

Social implications

The key policy implication of this study concerns the need for policymakers to develop policies that will help to establish the required technological base and know-how before chaos emerges. As a result, a rapid response can be implemented to mitigate the chaos and transform it into a competitive advantage. The authors also revealed that this recommendation overlaps with the model of dynamic capabilities in the literature (Teece and Pisano, 2003). Furthermore, this study recommends that nations and organisations establish a technological base that specifically includes technologies that bear 3A characteristics. These are the most crucial technologies for the survival- and essential-dominant stages. Moreover, the results of this study demonstrate that chaos accelerates technological progress through the rapid adoption and diffusion of technologies into different fields. Hence, nations and organisations should regard this rapid progress as an opportunity and establish the prior knowledge base and technologies before chaos emerges.

Originality/value

The authors have contributed to the chaos studies and the relationship between chaos and technological development by establishing the first theoretical foundation using the grounded theory approach, hereafter referred to as the TRPC theory. As part of the TRPC theory, the authors present three periods of technological response in the following sequence: survival technology, essential technology and enhancement technology. Moreover, this study illustrates the evolving technological importance and priorities as the periods of technological progress proceed under rapidly developing chaos.

Article
Publication date: 10 April 2017

Ozcan Saritas and Liliana N. Proskuryakova

This paper focuses on the long-term situation with water resources, and water sector in particular, analyzed through a Foresight study. The authors attribute particular attention…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper focuses on the long-term situation with water resources, and water sector in particular, analyzed through a Foresight study. The authors attribute particular attention to implication for Russia, which is relatively better positioned regarding the availability of water resources. However, the country still faces challenges related to the protection of water resources, drinking water supply, water networks, consumption patterns, water discharge, treatment and re-use. The present study aims at identification and analysis of trends, factors and uncertainties in water supply, demand, use and re-use with a particular focus on sustainability of water systems; water use by households and industry; and new water services and products.

Design/methodology/approach

Research methodology in this paper involves a horizon scanning exercise for the identification of the key trends, factors and uncertainties along with the identification of weak signals of future emerging trends and wild cards in the form of future surprises, shocks and other unexpected events that may disrupt the preservation of water resources and the future of the water sector. Trends characterize broad parameters for shifts in attitudes, climate, policies and business focus over periods of several years that usually have global reach. These are usually experienced by everyone and often in similar contexts. Trends may represent threats, opportunities or a mixture of them, identified through underlying processes, possible events and other future developments.

Findings

A key systemic restriction of water use for the next decades both globally and in Russia relates to competition between agriculture, energy, manufacturing and household water use. Given that the amount of renewable water resources is almost fixed and even decreases because of pollution, circular economy solutions for water use will be required. Implications of the global trends identified in the study for Russia are dependent on the overall situation with water resources in the country. Russia has sufficient water supply: the overall intake of water for drinking and economic purposes in Russia amounts to 3 per cent of the total water resources, two-thirds of which are discarded back to water bodies. At the same time, there are substantial problems associated with the extremely uneven distribution of water resources across the country, as well as high “water intensity” of the Russian GDP. The Russian water sector is currently not very attractive for investors. Moreover, it has significantly less lobbying opportunities than other infrastructure sectors, and this complicates its institutional and financial positions. Meanwhile, there have been some positive changes with regard to activities with a short pay-off period.

Originality/value

The paper offers one of the first studies on the future of Russian water resources with a focus on the water supply and sanitation sector. A comprehensive approach to trends identification (not found in other studies on Russian water resources) allowed authors to identify social, technological, environmental, economic, policy and value-related global trends and uncertainties. Moreover, implications of these trends and uncertainties, as well as Russia-specific trends, were outlined.

Details

foresight, vol. 19 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 13 June 2016

Effie Amanatidou, Ozcan Saritas and Denis Loveridge

This paper aims to present a set of strategic options for Research and Innovation (R&I) stakeholders in the light of new and emerging ways of organising and performing research…

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Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to present a set of strategic options for Research and Innovation (R&I) stakeholders in the light of new and emerging ways of organising and performing research.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper first reviews the evolution of the R&I landscape and identifies the most influential stakeholders engaged in R&I. In the light of the scenarios developed for the year 2030, a set of strategic options are identified and assessed for each stakeholder group.

Findings

R&I systems are now more complex than 50 years ago and will be even more in the future. Radical changes are expected in terms of the ways research is funded, organised and carried out. Some of these transformations are captured by the scenarios developed. The analysis of scenarios indicated that their feasibility and desirability differ across different sectors of industry, and research areas within the research landscape.

Research limitations/implications

Scenarios and strategies presented in the paper bring new considerations on the way research activities are practiced. Further research is considered to be useful on the new modes of research and implications for academia, industry, society and policy makers.

Practical implications

The discussion around the responses of different stakeholders vis-à-vis specific scenarios about the future in R&I practices and organisation gives a practical view about how to deal with associated emerging trends and issues.

Social implications

Society is a crucial stakeholder of all R&I activities. The transformative scenarios suggest that society will not only be playing a reactive role on the demand side but also more proactive role on the supply side in the decades to come.

Originality/value

The paper is based on work undertaken within the Research and Innovation (RIF) 2030 project. As R&I activities will be important for the development and competitiveness of the EU and its member states, the work presented here is considered to be of value by highlighting how to create more resilient strategies in a fast-changing R&I landscape.

Details

Foresight, vol. 18 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 5 March 2020

Serhat Burmaoglu, Ozcan Saritas and Harun Sesen

The purpose of this study is to discuss the possibility of setting up a platform for inclusive policymaking process drawing upon the blockchain concept. The study posits that…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to discuss the possibility of setting up a platform for inclusive policymaking process drawing upon the blockchain concept. The study posits that blockchain also has great potentials in non-financial applications, such as in policymaking, where there is a need for bottom-up approaches with more decentralized, distributed and evidence-based processes.

Design/methodology/approach

The study makes use of an analogy-based creative design methodology. The design science paradigm has its roots in engineering and the sciences of the artificial (Simon, 1996). As a problem-solving paradigm for solving complex engineering issues, design science seeks to create innovations that define the ideas, practices, technical capabilities and products through which the analysis, design, implementation and use of information systems can be effectively and efficiently accomplished. In the present study, the policy development theories and the logic of blockchain are synthesized to prepare a task model for the “IdeaChain” concept as a platform for creating, sharing and validating novel ideas as well as converting them into policies or new ventures through the funding mechanisms.

Findings

The IdeaChain concept is designed and demonstrated through its use in the domain of science, technology and innovation (STI) policy, which can be extended to cover all innovative activities linking the whole process from their emergence, funding, development, implementation and impact upon policy.

Originality/value

Blockchain is mostly discussed in literature with its impact on financial sector. IdeaChain is the first attempt to explore the potentials of blockchain in STI policymaking.

Details

foresight, vol. 22 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 23 March 2022

Serhat Burmaoglu, Dilek Ozdemir Gungor, Aynur Kirbac and Ozcan Saritas

The authors posit that one of the key enablers of the circular economy will be the digital transformation – in other words, “digitalization.” In this study, the authors examine…

Abstract

Purpose

The authors posit that one of the key enablers of the circular economy will be the digital transformation – in other words, “digitalization.” In this study, the authors examine and visualize the interaction of the circular economy and digitalization by using scientific publications. They explore possible synergies and future research avenues at this junction.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors first apply bibliometrics to explore and visualize the relationships between the circular economy and digitalization in the academic literature. Following the clustering of topics, they define key emerging factors for each cluster. Based on this analysis, they suggest future research avenues.

Findings

The authors find that there are four main clusters at the junction of circular economy and digitalization, including (1) sharing economy, (2) additive manufacturing, (3) business models and (4) industrial ecology and remanufacturing. They then dig deeper into these topics to better understand what factors would shape the future of the clusters. They conclude that sharing economy perspective and additive manufacturing may be enhanced by regulation-based and behavioral change-based approaches. Circular business models should be developed to maintain circularity in industry. Finally, digital manufacturing should be implemented within the framework of industrial ecology and remanufacturing principles to increase efficiency, productivity and traceability in the circular economy.

Originality/value

Digitalization offers significant potentials toward breakthrough sustainability by creating a circular economy. Hence, understanding the relationship between circular economy and digitalization is important to achieve sustainable development goals.

Details

International Journal of Productivity and Performance Management, vol. 72 no. 8
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1741-0401

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 2 November 2012

Ozcan Saritas and Ian Miles

The current paper aims to present the Scan‐4‐Light study, which was conducted for the systematic scanning and analysis of the Searchlight newsletters as a rapidly growing

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Abstract

Purpose

The current paper aims to present the Scan‐4‐Light study, which was conducted for the systematic scanning and analysis of the Searchlight newsletters as a rapidly growing collection of articles on trends and topics in development and poverty.

Design/methodology/approach

Built upon the concept of the systemic foresight methodology, the Scan‐4‐Light approach involves the integrated use of horizon scanning, network analysis and evolutionary scenarios combined with expert consultations and workshops. The study identified the emerging trends, issues, weak signals and wild cards; created high‐value visualisations to emphasize the results and findings; and produced narratives to increase the impact and awareness of the development issues.

Findings

The Scan‐4‐Light project has resulted in a large number of specific outputs, providing the views of the Searchlight newsletters' contents at various levels of granularity. It has set out to show how the tools used here can be applied to illustrate the relationships among issues, and how these vary across countries and regions over time, and are linked to various stakeholders and possible solutions to problems.

Research limitations/implications

Scan‐4‐Light demonstrates how foresight tools and techniques can be used for the analysis of complex and uncertain issues, such as development and poverty, in a systemic way.

Practical implications

The Scan‐4‐Light approach can be applied in a number of areas for scanning and identifying emerging trends and issues, and understanding the relationships between systems and solutions.

Social implications

The paper gives evidence that most of the issues, if not all, related to development are not isolated, but interlinked and interconnected. They require more holistic understanding and intervention with an effective collaboration between stakeholders.

Originality/value

A demonstration of a novel scanning approach is presented in the paper.

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