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A dynamic and adaptive scenario approach for formulating science & technology policy

Ozcan Saritas (Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russian Federation)
Yury Dranev (Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russian Federation)
Alexander Chulok (Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russian Federation)

Foresight

ISSN: 1463-6689

Article publication date: 11 September 2017

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Abstract

Purpose

Dynamic changes in the world bring challenges for making long-term future-oriented policy and strategy. A number of recent developments like drops in oil prices, increasing global conflicts, mass immigration and economic stagnation have had disruptive effects on long-term policies and strategies. The purpose of this paper is to provide a dynamic and adaptive Foresight approach as required by the fast-changing global landscape.

Design/methodology/approach

The scenario approach presented in the paper aims to develop multiple time horizons by bringing together short-term forecasts and long-term exploratory and visionary scenarios. Each time horizon allows for re-considering and dynamically changing drivers and assumptions of scenarios and thus builds not a single linear, but multiple and dynamic pathways into the future. Following the presentation on the background and description of the methodology, the paper illustrates the proposed approach with a case study on science and technology (S&T) development in Russia.

Findings

The flexible scenario approach allows developing and strategies with similar adaptability and flexibility.

Practical implications

The scenario approach presented in the paper may be applicable for Foresight exercises at all levels of governance, including national, international, regional and corporate.

Originality/value

A novel scenario approach is presented for the formulation of S&T policy with an illustrative case study.

Keywords

Acknowledgements

Contributions in this publication were supported within the framework of the Basic Research Program at the National Research University HSE and were funded within the framework of the subsidy granted to the HSE by the Government of the Russian Federation for the implementation of the Global Competitiveness Program. The research leading to these results has received funding from the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation in 2016-2017 (project ID: RFMEFI60216X0015).

Citation

Saritas, O., Dranev, Y. and Chulok, A. (2017), "A dynamic and adaptive scenario approach for formulating science & technology policy", Foresight, Vol. 19 No. 5, pp. 473-490. https://doi.org/10.1108/FS-11-2016-0054

Publisher

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Emerald Publishing Limited

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