Search results

Recent studies suggested the ratio of option to stock volume reflected the private information. Informed traders were drawn to the options market for its leverage effect and relatively low transaction costs. Informed traders use different intervals of option moneyness to execute their strategies. The question is which types of option moneyness were traded by informed traders and what information was reflected in the market. In this study, the authors focused on this question and constructed a method for capturing the activity of informed traders in the options and stock markets.

The authors constructed the daily measure, moneyness option trading volume to stock trading volume ratio (MOS), to capture the activity of informed traders in the market. The authors formed quintile portfolios sorted with respect to the moneyness option to stock trading volume ratio and provided the capital asset pricing model and Fama–French five-factor alphas. To determine whether MOS had predictive ability on future stock returns after controlling for company characteristic effects, the authors formed double-sorted portfolios and performed Fama–Macbeth regressions.

The authors found that the firms in the lowest moneyness option trading volume to stock trading volume ratio for put quintile outperform the highest quintile by 0.698% per week (approximately 36% per year). The firms in the highest moneyness option trading volume to stock trading volume ratio for call quintile outperform the lowest quintile by 0.575% per week (approximately 30% per year).

The authors first propose the measures, moneyness option trading volume to stock trading volume ratio, that combined with the trading volume and option moneyness. The authors provide evidence that the measures have the predictive ability to the future stock returns.

In this paper, the authors examine options trading in firms that soon become rumored takeover targets. This study also examines whether measures of informed trading can predict target returns (upon rumor announcement and over the post-rumor period) and/or predict which rumors lead to bids. The authors further assess whether the informed trading they observe is more prevalent in the options market or the equity market.

This study calculates abnormal options volume using a market-model approach that accounts for different attributes of options trading. The authors construct a control sample and compare equity options trading of firms in their sample with that of the control sample. In addition, the authors fit a series of regressions to examine whether pre-rumor abnormal options trading can predict rumor accuracy in a multivariate setting.

The authors find that the volume of options traded is abnormally high over the pre-rumor period while the direction of option trades (abnormal call volume minus abnormal put volume) prior to takeover rumors predicts forthcoming takeover announcements, rumor date target firm returns and post-rumor target firm returns. The results are robust when controlling for publicly available information, when using a control sample, and when using alternative measures of informed trading.

This study is the first to provide evidence of informed options trading prior to a broad sample of takeover rumors. In addition, this study contributes to the literature on takeover predictability and profitability by showing that various pre-rumor measures of informed options trading significantly predict bid announcements. The authors also contributes to the literature on price discovery by providing evidence that informed investors are more likely to trade in the options market than in the equity market during the pre-event period.

Informed traders may prefer the options market to the stock market for reasons including the leverage effect, transaction costs, restrictions on short sale. Many studies try to predict future returns of stocks using informed traders' behavior in the options market. In this study, we examine whether the trading volume ratios of single stock options have the predictive power for future returns of the underlying stock. By analyzing the stock price responses to the “preliminary announcement of performance” of 36 underlying stocks on the Korea Exchange from November 2014 to March 2021 and the trading volume of options written on those stocks, we investigate the relation between the option ratios, which are the call option volume to put option volume ratio (C/P ratio) and the option volume to stock volume ratio (O/S ratio), and the future returns of the underlying stock. We also examine which ratio is better in predicting the future returns. The authors found that both option ratios showed the statistically significant predictability about future returns of the underlying stock and that the return predictability of the O/S ratio is more robust than that of the C/P ratio. This study shows that indicators generated in the options market can be used to predict future underlying stock returns. Further, the findings of this study contributed to a dearth of literature pertaining to single stock options. The results suggest that the single stock options market is efficient and influences the price discovery in the stock market.

This paper aims to investigate whether single-name options trading prior to earnings announcements is more informative when there exist real activity manipulations.

Using 5,419 earnings announcements during 2004–2018 made by 208 public US companies with relatively high options volumes ranked by the CBOE, the authors uncover two regularities using predictive regressions for stock return.

First, the total options volume up to twenty days pre-announcement is significantly higher than that in other periods only for earnings management firms; moreover, after detailing options characteristics, the authors find these intensive pre-announcement trading to be concentrated in transactions of in-the-money call and long-term maturity put options. Second, an increase in the single-name call minus put options volume can positively predict the underlying stock’s next-day excess return much better in real earnings management firms, with a larger magnitude of effect in periods right before regular earnings announcement dates.

This paper makes a marginal and novel contribution by showing that real earnings management can serve as a proxy for the potential profit from informed trading in options as the return predictability of options volume becomes stronger for firms that have the manipulation motive and indeed perform manipulative actions.

The purpose of this paper is to examine whether the underlying option impacts an insider’s propensity to purchase and sell before corporate announcements, the proportion of insiders’ trading after announcements relative to before announcements, and the insider’s profitability around corporate announcements.

The authors test whether the timing information and option have impacted on the tendency of insider trade, the percentage of all shares traded by insiders in the post-announcement to pre-announcement periods and the average cumulative abnormal stock returns during the pre-announcement period.

Insiders’ propensity to trade before announcements is higher for stocks without options listed than for stocks with traded options. This result is stronger for unscheduled announcements than for scheduled ones. The proportion of insiders’ trade volume after announcements relative to before announcements in stocks that have not options listed is higher than those in stocks with traded options. The positive relationship between the insiders’ signed volume and the informational content of corporate announcements is stronger in stocks without traded options than in stocks with options listed. Insider trades prior to unscheduled announcement are more profitable than those before scheduled ones.

The paper examines whether there is a difference between the effects of optioned stock and non-optioned stock. Roll et al. (2010) use the relative trading volume of options to stock ratio (O/S) to proxy for informed options trading activity. Future research could explore the impact of O/S. Moreover, the authors examine how insiders with private information use such information to trade in their own firms. Mehta et al. (2017) argue that insiders also use private information to facilitate trading (shadow trading) in linked firms, such as supply chain partners or competitors. Therefore, future research could consider the impact of shadow trading.

Since the insider’s propensity to buy before announcements in stocks without options listed is larger than in stocks with traded options and the relationship is stronger for unscheduled announcements than for scheduled ones, the efforts of regulators should focus on monitoring insider trading in stocks without options listed prior to unscheduled announcements.

First, Lei and Wang (2014) find that the increasing pattern of insider’s propensity to trade before unscheduled announcements is larger than that before scheduled announcements. The authors document the underlying option has impacted the insider’s propensity to purchase and sell, and the relationship is stronger for unscheduled announcements than for scheduled ones. Second, related studies show insider’s trading activity has shifted from periods before corporate announcements to periods after corporate announcements to decrease litigation risk. This paper find the underlying option has influenced the proportion of insiders’ trading after announcements relative to before announcements when the illegal insider trade-related penalties increase.

Using the next-day and next-week returns of stocks in the Korean market, we examine the association of option volume ratios – i.e. the option-to-stock (O/S) ratio, which is the total volume of put options and call options scaled by total underlying equity volume, and the put-call (P/C) ratio, which is the put volume scaled by total put and call volume – with future returns. We find that O/S ratios are positively related to future returns, but P/C ratios have no significant association with returns. We calculate individual, institutional, and foreign investors’ option ratios to determine which ratios are significantly related to future returns and find that, for all investors, higher O/S ratios predict higher future returns. The predictability of P/C depends on the investors: institutional and individual investors’ P/C ratios are not related to returns, but foreign P/C predicts negative next-day returns. For net-buying O/S ratios, institutional net-buying put-to-stock ratios consistently predict negative future returns. Institutions’ buying and selling put ratios also predict returns. In short, institutional put-to-share ratios predict future returns when we use various option ratios, but individual option ratios do not.

The paper aims to explore the informational role of futures volume in the simultaneous relationship between option volume and spot volatility to forecast the volatility of the underlying asset.

The generalized method of moments is used to estimate the simultaneous equations of endogeneity between spot volatility and option volume. Futures volume is specified as an exogenous variable in both legs of the estimation of simultaneous equations. However, the future volume is also tested as a dependent variable to prove preference for investment by informed investors in futures along with options.

The result indicates that futures volume has a significant association with the bi-directional simultaneous equation estimation between spot volatility and option volume. Moreover, the result of this paper proves that informed investors also prefer futures markets over the spot market. However, there is no change observed in the relationship between option volume and spot volatility due to either call or put options or moneyness.

The possible role of futures volume in the simultaneous equations between spot volatility and option volume has not yet been researched. This paper pioneers in demonstrating that futures volume is an exogenous variable in the simultaneous equation modeling between spot volatility and option volume. Moreover, in the contemporaneous as well as predictive relationships between spot volatility and option volume, futures volume as an exogenous variable is significant in forecasting spot volatility. In addition to this, the current paper uniquely provides evidence of investment in futures also over the spot market by informed investors.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of short-sale restrictions (SSR) with particular emphasis on their impact on the liquidity and informed trading in the stock and option markets.

Using a panel regression with controls for volatility, VIX and matched stocks, this study examines the effect of the short-sale ban (SSB) on stock and option liquidity, expressed in terms of spread and volume. In addition, the PIN and option information share (OIS) measures have been used to analyze its impact on informed trading in those related markets.

The results suggest that the SSB leads to a significant reduction in the liquidity of the affected stocks and their options. However, no significant change in the trader composition can be detected. This result is consistent to the short-prohibition effect predicted by Diamond and Verrecchia (1987).

Due to the sizeable data required to estimate the PIN and OIS measures, only a select sample of optionable stocks has been examined.

This study offers both academics and policy makers some useful insights into the effect of SSR on trading activities in both stock and option markets. From a policy perspective, it clearly demonstrates that regulatory changes targeting a specific market also affect other related markets via the arbitrage link between them.

This paper aims to examine the prevalence of informed trading around corporate spinoffs and the relation between firm opacity and informed trading using option market data.

The author investigates the prevalence of informed trading by examining the relationship between abnormal stock returns associated with spinoffs and the volatility spread/volatility skewness of options prior to the spinoffs. Furthermore, the author examines how opacity and organizational complexity prior to the spinoffs affect informed trading.

The study shows that option volatility spread and volatility skewness for the five days prior to the spinoffs can predict the abnormal stock returns on the spinoff announcement days, suggesting that there is informed trading in the options market prior to spinoffs. The study shows that informed trading is more prevalent for firms that are more opaque prior to the spinoff. Furthermore, informed trading decreases after spinoffs.

To the best of knowledge, this is the first empirical research that examines the prevalence of informed trading around spinoffs by using options volatility spread/skewness and the relation between firm opacity and informed options trading.

We propose a novel method of forecasting equity option spreads using the degree of multiple listing as a proxy for expectations of future spreads. Spreads are a transactions fee for traders. To determine the future spreads on options being considered for purchase, traders must take current market trends affecting spreads into account. One such trend is the continued decline in spreads due to the multiple listing of options. Options listed on 4–6 exchanges compete more intensely than those listed on fewer exchanges, so that they may be expected to experience greater future declines in spreads. This study identifies the listing dates and number of listed exchanges for options listed on up to six exchanges as of May 2005. Listing criteria for multiple listing are defined with short- and long-term volumes, market capitalization, net income, and total assets being significant determinants of multiple listing. Short- and long-term volumes were found to have no explanatory power for multiple listing. Ranges of listing criteria are specified so that traders may locate the options of their choice.