Options trading prior to takeover rumors

Abstract

Purpose

In this paper, the authors examine options trading in firms that soon become rumored takeover targets. This study also examines whether measures of informed trading can predict target returns (upon rumor announcement and over the post-rumor period) and/or predict which rumors lead to bids. The authors further assess whether the informed trading they observe is more prevalent in the options market or the equity market.

Design/methodology/approach

This study calculates abnormal options volume using a market-model approach that accounts for different attributes of options trading. The authors construct a control sample and compare equity options trading of firms in their sample with that of the control sample. In addition, the authors fit a series of regressions to examine whether pre-rumor abnormal options trading can predict rumor accuracy in a multivariate setting.

Findings

The authors find that the volume of options traded is abnormally high over the pre-rumor period while the direction of option trades (abnormal call volume minus abnormal put volume) prior to takeover rumors predicts forthcoming takeover announcements, rumor date target firm returns and post-rumor target firm returns. The results are robust when controlling for publicly available information, when using a control sample, and when using alternative measures of informed trading.

Originality/value

This study is the first to provide evidence of informed options trading prior to a broad sample of takeover rumors. In addition, this study contributes to the literature on takeover predictability and profitability by showing that various pre-rumor measures of informed options trading significantly predict bid announcements. The authors also contributes to the literature on price discovery by providing evidence that informed investors are more likely to trade in the options market than in the equity market during the pre-event period.

Citation

Khadivar, H., Davis, F. and Walker, T. (2023), "Options trading prior to takeover rumors", International Journal of Managerial Finance, Vol. 19 No. 2, pp. 421-445. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJMF-04-2021-0209