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Czechia's economic growth is substantially dependent on foreign trade. An independent monetary policy in a managed floating exchange rate regime gives a unique perspective on the effects of the exchange rate on foreign trade. This chapter evaluates the effects of exchange rate development on different sectors of Czechia's foreign trade. Using disaggregated data based on trading partner and product category, the period from 1999 to 2020 is analyzed. Czechia's 10 major trading partners are included in the estimation. The relationship between exchange rates and foreign trade is assessed through a Johansen cointegration approach and modified vector error correction model. The results of the Johansen cointegration test indicate that the majority of the aggregate bilateral trade balances are in a long-term relationship with Czechia's gross domestic product (GDP), foreign GDP and exchange rate movements. The J-curve is proved only in chemicals and related products traded with France, manufactured goods traded with Italy and Slovakia and mineral fuels and lubricants traded with the Netherlands.

Czechia is a small open economy and a member state of the European Union. Several important trends and episodes that have determined economic growth can be identified over the last two decades. This chapter deals with some macroeconomic features like macroeconomic and labour market performance within the business cycle, the Czech National Bank (CNB) exchange rate commitment and interest rate policy, increasing indebtedness and budget deficits, foreign trade and the international investment position. We applied publicly available data from Eurostat, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and CNB databases. The data show that the Czech economy was significantly converging to the average economic level of the European Union. We also identified key turning points in business cycles. Macroeconomic data on economic development of the economy indicate an atypical course of the business cycle between 2020 and 2022, which can be evaluated as different from the one that followed the global financial crisis.

Inflation expectations are an important part of the transmission mechanism of the inflation targeting regime. As such, central bankers must study the inflation expectations of economic agents to anchor them close to the level of the inflation target. However, economic agents are affected by the past and current macroeconomic situation when they form their expectations concerning future inflation. Using survey data on inflation expectations in Czechia, we investigate the macroeconomic determinants of Czech analysts' and managers' inflation expectations. We find that both actual and past inflation have a substantial impact on inflation expectations of the agents surveyed. We also identify backward-looking behaviour among these agents: persistence in inflation expectations of up to two quarters was detected. Moreover, financial analysts formed inflation expectations more in line with economic theory, while company managers evinced expectations similar to those of consumers.

This chapter aims to shed light on the hidden benefits and losses of US-China trade within the framework of unequal exchange theory. After presenting the evolutions of the trade balance between China and the United States, we propose two methods for measuring the unequal exchange between them: one considers the labor content directly incorporated into the exchange; the other focuses on the international values with input-output tables. This allows to present a synthesis of sectoral analyses. Our results show a significant unequal exchange in US-China trade over 1995–2014, the United States being actually the main beneficiary of this trade. Both methods exhibit the inequality in exchange tending to decrease over time; China's disadvantage has been gradually reducing from the 2000s. We finally suggest that the relative decline in the hegemonic status of the United States in this bilateral unequal relationship could help explain its decision to launch its trade war with China.

Using a GED-GARCH model to estimate monthly data from January 1990 to February 2022, we test whether gold acts as a hedge or safe haven asset in 10 countries. With a downturn of the stock market, gold can be viewed as a hedge and safe haven asset in the G7 countries. In the case of inflation, gold acts as a hedge and safe haven asset in the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, China, and Indonesia. For currency depreciation, oil price shock, economic policy uncertainty, and US volatility spillover, evidence finds that gold acts as a hedge and safe haven for all countries.

Fiscal and monetary policies are essential to the development of a capital market. In this chapter, authors present how fiscal and monetary policy in Poland evolved and adjusted to economic challenges in 1998–2022. It is worth noticing that the Polish economy and financial market have been built from scratch after 45 years of socialism. Hence, it is scientifically interesting to study the relationship between fiscal and monetary policy, and capital market in a developing country, and in a relatively young economy.

Both – the macroeconomic policy mix and development of the capital market – are the subject of analysis how fiscal and monetary policy impacted the capital market. As so the main aim of the chapter is the assessment of the nexus and dependencies between fiscal and monetary policy and the capital market.

In the chapter, multiple linear regression was used for each dependent variable to discover which monetary and fiscal policy parameters significantly predicted selected variables describing the development of the capital market in Poland. Fiscal and monetary policy variables served as descriptors explaining capital market parameters in seven separate models.

Multiple regression models explain 77.3%–95.4% of the volatility of the capital market characteristics. The level of the central bank's reference rate is a variable that influences the capital market the most. In six out of seven models, the interest rate was a significant parameter. The development of the capital market was accompanied by a higher tax-to-GDP ratio. At the same time, a strong negative impact of the tax-to-GDP increase was noticed in domestic institutional investors' stock trading.

The aim of this chapter is to examine the nominal and real convergence of Czechia. The importance of the convergence of Czechia with the euro area is linked to the future intention of joining the Economic and Monetary Union after the Maastricht criteria are met. This chapter covers the period from 2004 to 2021. We argue that nominal convergence is relative to the Maastricht criteria, when real convergence focuses on different areas: the Maastricht criteria, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in purchasing power standards and real GDP growth rate, labour market (minimum labour costs and unemployment rates. Findings suggest that Czechia has reported the strongest real convergence in the area of relative economic level, moderate convergence of labour costs and divergence of unemployment. The nominal convergence analysis suggests that Czechia will not meet the Maastricht benchmarks in the near future and is not ready to join the euro area given its high inflation rate and the state of public finances.

The aim of this chapter is to describe the purpose of the introduction of the exchange rate commitment by the Czech National Bank (CNB) in the period from November 2013 to April 2017 and its effects on the real economy. The main reason for introducing the exchange rate commitment was concern about the possibility of a prolonged deflationary period in Czechia. Given that the standard monetary policy instruments had already been exhausted on easing the monetary policy conditions, the CNB Bank Board opted for an exchange rate commitment. The secondary objective of the exchange rate commitment was to boost the economy through the positive effect of a weaker koruna on exports. Next, we focus in more detail on the effect of the exchange rate commitment in the economy and the course of the foreign exchange interventions. Overall, we can summarize that the CNB's foreign exchange interventions were an extraordinary monetary policy instrument – in a market economy with inflation targeting and a flexible exchange rate – used in extraordinary times.

This chapter elaborates on the main factors of the adverse macroeconomic development in Czechia and Europe. Currently, i.e. from 2022, Czechia mainly suffers from double-digit galloping inflation and GDP stagnation. The aim of this chapter is to identify and describe the influence of the main factors from the present and the more distant past on current inflation and approaching stagflation in Czechia. This chapter analyzes an unfavourable mix of demand and supply factors that leave the new banking board of the CNB facing a dilemma, that is, whether to pursue a disinflationary policy of increasing interest rates and thus push the Czech economy closer into recession or to rely on demand-driven economic growth, which will keep unemployment at a low level, but at the same time contribute to inflationary pressures. The new governor of the CNB completely changed the strategy of his predecessor and, despite strong criticism, did not raise interest rates even once. Based on the analysis of inflationary factors, this chapter tries to explain the motives for the Central Bank's new strategy in the fight against inflation, which is the systematic appreciation of the Czech koruna.