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Article
Publication date: 31 July 2023

Eduardo Loría and Raúl Antonio Tirado Cossío

The labor market responds in a differentiated manner during recessions and expansions, and it is of vital importance to know the magnitude asymmetries. The purpose of this paper…

Abstract

Purpose

The labor market responds in a differentiated manner during recessions and expansions, and it is of vital importance to know the magnitude asymmetries. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effects of the disinflationary monetary policy (2005Q1–2022Q4) through the sacrifice rate measured in terms of unemployment and rate of critical labor conditions (RCLC) with nonlinear auto regressive distributed lag (NLARDL; Shin et al., 2014), which allows to efficiently estimate asymmetric effects in short and long terms in the presence of variables of different integration orders.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors estimate an asymmetric accelerationist Phillips curve, augmented with labor precariousness for Mexico (2005Q1–2022Q4) following the NLARDL approach (Shin et al., 2014).

Findings

The authors prove that the increase in the unemployment gap has greater disinflationary effects than the RCLC in both the short and the long term; the expansionary phases of the business cycle, which reduce UGap, do not have inflationary effects either in the short or in the long run, but improvements in the labor market do, when RCLC is reduced; raising RCLC appears to have been the companies’ main survival strategy since 2015; and these asymmetries can generate a low unemployment trap with high and growing precariousness, with huge dynamic costs for well-being, economic growth, inequality and poverty.

Social implications

As labor precariousness grows, the implications are several both in the short and long run. In the short run, the most notorious example of the effects on workers has to do with unstable and insecure situations, that disrupt all their life planning options, and health issues. Bohle et al. (2004) found in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries that casual employees had less desirable and predictable working hours, greater work–life conflict and more associated health complaints than people with permanent jobs.

Originality/value

The approach includes the labor precariousness variable, which describes a new phenomenon in the labor market. Nowadays, workers are facing a new threat since firms are employing a new labor cost reduction strategy in which they do not lay off workers but rather paying them less, working them more hours, or reducing benefits. The asymmetries between the effects of precarity and unemployment can generate a poverty trap in the long run. This problem is, once again, of great relevance in the context of global high inflation.

Details

International Journal of Development Issues, vol. 22 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1446-8956

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 29 September 2023

Olufemi Gbenga Onatunji, Oluwayemisi Kadijat Adeleke and Akintoye Victor Adejumo

This study reinvestigates the validity of the Phillips curve in Nigeria for the period 1980–2020 by considering the asymmetric nexus between unemployment and inflation.

Abstract

Purpose

This study reinvestigates the validity of the Phillips curve in Nigeria for the period 1980–2020 by considering the asymmetric nexus between unemployment and inflation.

Design/methodology/approach

The nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) technique was used to decompose the unemployment variable into two components: tight and loosened labour markets.

Findings

The empirical outcome shows that unemployment has a significant negative effect on inflation when the labour market is tight and a weakly negative and significant effect on inflation when the labour market is loose. The study confirms an asymmetric Phillips curve in Nigeria since the positive (tight) unemployment rate exerts a greater effect on inflation than the negative (loosened) unemployment rate.

Practical implications

The findings of this study have important implications for implementing monetary policy in Nigeria.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to investigate the existence of a nonlinear Phillip curve in Nigeria.

Details

African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, vol. 15 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2040-0705

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 19 October 2023

Haytem Troug and Ernil Sabaj

Despite being a flexible tool that can address several macroeconomic issues, Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models have been rarely used to analyse the interaction…

Abstract

Purpose

Despite being a flexible tool that can address several macroeconomic issues, Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models have been rarely used to analyse the interaction between monetary and fiscal policy until the post-financial crisis, leaving a gap in the analysis of how government consumption affects the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. This motivates this paper to analyse how government consumption affects the dynamics of a small open economy, once the former is included in a non-separable form to the utility function. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this issue has not been addressed by the literature, and the authors aim to do so in this paper.

Design/methodology/approach

A standard New Keynesian model for a small open economy is used to allow for the presence of non-separable government consumption in the utility function. The model is supported by panel regressions.

Findings

The inclusion of Government consumption dampens the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. The degree of openness dampens the crowding out effect of fiscal policy to monetary policy, as the exchange rate channel empowers it. Empirical estimates for 35 OECD countries support the theoretical findings of the model.

Originality/value

The effect of government consumption on the transmission mechanism of MP has not been addressed in the literature. This paper contributes to the literature by addressing this issue.

Highlights:

  • • The inclusion of Government consumption dampens the transmission mechanism of monetary policy.

  • • The degree of openness alleviates the crowding out effect of fiscal policy to monetary policy, as the exchange rate channel empowers it.

  • • Empirical estimates for 35 OECD countries support the theoretical findings of the model.

• The inclusion of Government consumption dampens the transmission mechanism of monetary policy.

• The degree of openness alleviates the crowding out effect of fiscal policy to monetary policy, as the exchange rate channel empowers it.

• Empirical estimates for 35 OECD countries support the theoretical findings of the model.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 51 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 20 June 2023

Françoise Okah Efogo and Boniface Ngah Epo

This paper appraises the effects of monetary policy on trade in value-added (TiVA) using a panel of 38 developing countries spanning the period 1990 to 2019. Specifically, the…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper appraises the effects of monetary policy on trade in value-added (TiVA) using a panel of 38 developing countries spanning the period 1990 to 2019. Specifically, the authors subsequently summon the theory of trade in intermediate products within the New Keynesian framework for open economies that comprises price rigidity to verify this relationship and thereon control for robustness by correcting for endogeneity and unbalanced panel effect.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors mobilize the within estimator corrected for cross sectional dependence as well as the two-stage-least squares fixed effect estimator which corrects for endogeneity. For robustness, the authors also use the Hausman–Taylor estimator to control for endogeneity and random effects in annualized data and the least squares dummy variable corrected estimator.

Findings

Results suggest that the monetary policy instruments such as inflationary gaps and anticipatory inflationary outcomes significantly affect TiVA in developing countries only in the short term with no long-term effect. In addition to contributing to the scanty empirical literature, the authors provide relevant insights on monetary policy tools that can be mobilized in fashioning a global value chain penetration and upgrading strategies.

Originality/value

The authors convoke the theory of trade in intermediate products casted into the New Keynesian framework comprising price rigidity to verify the relationship between TiVA and monetary policy (b) verify for robustness by correcting for endogeneity and unbalanced panel effect.

Details

Journal of International Logistics and Trade, vol. 21 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1738-2122

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 23 September 2022

Saurabh Sharma, Ipsita Padhi and Sarat Dhal

This paper aims to revisit the theme of fiscal-monetary coordination in a general equilibrium setup that allows for unconventional monetary policy, monetary policy transmission…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to revisit the theme of fiscal-monetary coordination in a general equilibrium setup that allows for unconventional monetary policy, monetary policy transmission and developing country characteristics.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper uses a calibrated new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to study fiscal-monetary interaction.

Findings

Debt sits at the center of monetary-fiscal interaction. Under high-debt conditions, the inflation-output trade-off rises with an increase in the strictness with which monetary policy targets inflation, undermining the standard prescription of strict inflation targeting. At the same time, the transmission of monetary policy is also impeded, due to which unconventional monetary policy becomes more appropriate. The need for coordination among the policies gets enhanced in the presence of borrowing cost channel. While the presence of borrowing cost channel increases the need for policy coordination regardless of the debt situation, features like higher share of non-Ricardian households and weaker monetary policy transmission affect monetary-fiscal interaction to a greater extent under high-debt environment.

Originality/value

First, this paper uses inflation-output trade-off as a metric, to analyze fiscal-monetary interaction. Second, this paper considers the impact of developing country characteristics (such as a higher share of non-Ricardian households, impeded monetary policy transmission and supply constraints/borrowing cost channel) on fiscal-monetary interaction. Third, the DSGE model developed in this paper incorporates open market operations that could shed light on the role of unconventional monetary policy in the presence of high fiscal deficit and debt, which is particularly relevant in the current context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Fourth, the model also permits an investigation into monetary policy transmission under different debt regimes.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. 40 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 25 August 2022

Ashish Kumar, Shikha Sharma, Ritu Vashistha, Vikas Srivastava, Mosab I. Tabash, Ziaul Haque Munim and Andrea Paltrinieri

International Journal of Emerging Markets (IJoEM) is a leading journal that publishes high-quality research focused on emerging markets. In 2020, IJoEM celebrated its fifteenth…

3505

Abstract

Purpose

International Journal of Emerging Markets (IJoEM) is a leading journal that publishes high-quality research focused on emerging markets. In 2020, IJoEM celebrated its fifteenth anniversary, and the objective of this paper is to conduct a retrospective analysis to commensurate IJoEM's milestone.

Design/methodology/approach

Data used in this study were extracted using the Scopus database. Bibliometric analysis, using several indicators, is adopted to reveal the major trends and themes of a journal. Mapping of bibliographic data is carried using VOSviewer.

Findings

Study findings indicate that IJoEM has been growing for publications and citations since its inception. Four significant research directions emerged, i.e. consumer behaviour, financial markets, financial institutions and corporate governance and strategic dimensions based on cluster analysis of IJoEM's publications. The identified future research directions are focused on emergent investments opportunities, trends in behavioural finance, emerging role technology-financial companies, changing trends in corporate governance and the rising importance of strategic management in emerging markets.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first study to conduct a comprehensive bibliometric analysis of IJoEM. The study presents the key themes and trends emerging from a leading journal considered a high-quality research journal for research on emerging markets by academicians, scholars and practitioners.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 19 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 5 August 2022

Binh Thi Thanh Nguyen

This paper aims to test the hedging ability of housing investment against inflation in Japan and the USA during the period 2000–2020.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to test the hedging ability of housing investment against inflation in Japan and the USA during the period 2000–2020.

Design/methodology/approach

This study applies the deep learning method and The exponential general autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity in mean (1, 1) model with breaks.

Findings

Within the asymmetric framework, it is found that housing returns (HR) can hedge against inflation in both these markets, which mentions that when investing in the housing market in Japan and the USA, investors are compensated for bearing from inflation. This result is consistent with Fisher’s hypothesis. Especially, the empirical results show that the risk-return tradeoff is available in Japan’s housing market and not available in the US housing market. Any signal of a high inflation rate – referred to as “bad news” – may cause a drop in HR in Japan and a raise in the USA.

Originality/value

To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is one of the first studies using the deep learning method (long short-term memory model) to estimate the expected/unexpected inflation rates.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 16 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 19 January 2024

Alexandre Chirat, Basile Clerc and Richard P. F. Holt

In 1979, Galbraith wrote a manuscript titled “The Social Consequences of Inflation and Unemployment and Their Remedies.” The manuscript was found in the John Kenneth Galbraith…

Abstract

In 1979, Galbraith wrote a manuscript titled “The Social Consequences of Inflation and Unemployment and Their Remedies.” The manuscript was found in the John Kenneth Galbraith Personal Papers at the John F. Kennedy Library. The reasons for Galbraith to write the article might appear at first glance to be purely contextual. At the macroeconomic level, the United States was experiencing stagflation, a situation unseen since 1945, resulting in double-digit inflation rates and high unemployment. A policy debate was going on about the Phillips curve and whether there is a trade-off between inflation and unemployment. Milton Friedman challenged the Keynesian analyses of the Phillips curve in the mid-1960s (Friedman, 1977). Galbraith’s 16-page draft manuscript provides us an incisive summary of Galbraith’s views about the causes of stagflation and what can be done about it. He provides us with an alternative to the neoclassical synthesis of Samuelson and Solow and the neoliberal thinking of Milton Friedman and F.A. Hayek.

Details

Research in the History of Economic Thought and Methodology: Including a Symposium on John Kenneth Galbraith: Economic Structures and Policies for the Twenty-first Century
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80455-931-4

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 5 February 2024

Karlo Marques Junior

This paper seeks to explore the sensitivity of these parameters and their impact on fiscal policy outcomes. We use the existing literature to establish possible ranges for each…

23

Abstract

Purpose

This paper seeks to explore the sensitivity of these parameters and their impact on fiscal policy outcomes. We use the existing literature to establish possible ranges for each parameter, and we examine how changes within these ranges can alter the outcomes of fiscal policy. In this way, we aim to highlight the importance of these parameters in the formulation and evaluation of fiscal policy.

Design/methodology/approach

The role of fiscal policy, its effects and multipliers continues to be a subject of intense debate in macroeconomics. Despite adopting a New Keynesian approach within a macroeconomic model, the reactions of macroeconomic variables to fiscal shocks can vary across different contexts and theoretical frameworks. This paper aims to investigate these diverse reactions by conducting a sensitivity analysis of parameters. Specifically, the study examines how key variables respond to fiscal shocks under different parameter settings. By analyzing the behavioral dynamics of these variables, this research contributes to the ongoing discussion on fiscal policy. The findings offer valuable insights to enrich the understanding of the complex relationship between fiscal shocks and macroeconomic outcomes, thus facilitating informed policy debates.

Findings

This paper aims to investigate key elements of New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models. The focus is on the calibration of parameters and their impact on macroeconomic variables, such as output and inflation. The study also examines how different parameter settings affect the response of monetary policy to fiscal measures. In conclusion, this study has relied on theoretical exploration and a comprehensive review of existing literature. The parameters and their relationships have been analyzed within a robust theoretical framework, offering valuable insights for further research on how these factors influence model forecasts and inform policy recommendations derived from New Keynesian DSGE models. Moving forward, it is recommended that future work includes empirical analyses to test the reliability and effectiveness of parameter calibrations in real-world conditions. This will contribute to enhancing the accuracy and relevance of DSGE models for economic policy decision-making.

Originality/value

This study is motivated by the aim to provide a deeper understanding of the roles macroeconomic model parameters play concerning responses to expansionary fiscal policies and the subsequent reactions of monetary authorities. Comprehensive reviews that encompass this breadth of relationships within a single text are rare in the literature, making this work a valuable contribution to stimulating discussions on macroeconomic policies.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Content available
Book part
Publication date: 4 September 2023

Stephen E. Spear and Warren Young

Abstract

Details

Overlapping Generations: Methods, Models and Morphology
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83753-052-6

1 – 10 of 36