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Compares Layard, Nickell and Jackman′s empirical model of UK unemployment with other time‐series econometric studies to assess whether the balance of evidence supports their analysis. Compares estimates of the effect on the UK NAIRU of factors such as benefits, union strength, mismatch, taxes, the exchange rate and hysteresis. Highlights and discusses differences of approach – e.g. to the exogeneity of the real exchange rate, the permanence of wedge effects and to hysteresis. Empirical results are found to be very sensitive to the precise way in which models are formulated and estimated. This suggests that any estimates of the level of the NAIRU are likely to be unreliable. Finds however, considerable empirical support for the kind of interactions between wages, prices and unemployment that Layard, Nickell and Jackman include in their model.

The main purpose of this paper is to provide more accurate estimates of Iran's time varying non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) than what already exists in the literature.

Using the Kalman filter approach and annual time series data spanning from 1959 to 2008, the paper presents two estimates of the NAIRU for Iran.

The estimated two measures appear to be robust and consistent in terms of their magnitude and pattern, having a more logical upper limit of 11.1 per cent. Irrespective of which of the two models are considered, the results clearly indicate that overall Iran's NAIRU has been on the rise since the 1960s and whenever the unemployment rate lies below the NAIRU, the rate of inflation has exhibited an explosive behaviour. Such a phenomenon was observed in both 1995-1996 and the post 2006 era.

In the context of Iran, all previous studies have consistently over-estimated the maximum value of the time varying NAIRU. In these studies, the NAIRU's upper limit ranges from 14 to 20.7 per cent. The paper concludes that such implausible high rates are as a result of the overestimation associated with misspecification errors in their model.

Assesses the NAIRU framework for analysing the determinants of equilibrium unemployment, as expressed in Layard, Nickell and Jackman′s Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market. It is argued that the NAIRU has produced many useful insights regarding the effects of socio‐economic factors on wage determination, but has not produced a plausible account of the determination of equilibrium unemployment.

A standard model of equilibrium unemployment consists of static equations for real-wage ambitions (wage curve) and real-wage scope (price curve), which jointly determine the NAIRU. The heuristics of the model states that unless the rate of unemployment approaches the NAIRU from any given initial value, inflation will be increasing or decreasing over time. The paper aims to discuss these issues.

The authors formalize this influential heuristic argument with the aid of a dynamic model of the wage-price spiral where the static theory’s equations are re-interpreted as attractor relationships.

The authors show that NAIRU unemployment dynamics are sufficient but not necessary for inflation stabilization, and that the dynamic wage-price spiral model generally has a dynamically stable solution for any predetermined rate of unemployment. The authors also discuss a restricted version of the model that conforms to the accelerationist view that inflation increases/falls if unemployment is not at its “natural rate”.

To investigate the relevance of heuristical dynamics of influential macro models, explicit modelling of such dynamics is a necessary step.

An important argument against social orders that represent an attempt to target unemployment at relatively low levels, is refuted by the analysis.

A high degree of employment is a main premise for a social order with equal income distribution and a drive for productivity growth.

It is important that economics give a balanced view of the possibility of attaining inflation stability at low or moderate levels of unemployment. This offering is contributions to establish such a balance.

Considers the treatment of openness and imperfect competition in the influential analysis of Layard, Nickell and Jackman′s (LNJ′s) Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market. Clarifies and completes LNJ′s treatment of openness through the provision of explicit analytical solutions to their model under fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes. Also provides a (largely informal) analysis of the sensitivity of the LNJ model′s results to the particular forms of imperfect competition assumed. It is argued that openness is crucial to the model′s properties, whereas imperfect competition is not. However, imperfect competitive behaviour may, more generally, have a major impact if it is not confined to the “well‐behaved form” allowed by LNJ.

Hysteresis is one of the main concepts used in Layard, Nickell and Jackman′s book, Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market. Attempts to clarify the concept of hysteresis, from its formal representation to its empirical applications. Emphasizes the idea that hysteresis refers back to a given set of formal properties, independently of the phenomenologies within which it is liable to be encountered. In economics, the fields concerned may indeed vary a lot (labour market, foreign trade, etc.). By highlighting all the formal properties of hysteresis, shows how the assimilation of phenomena characterized by a zero eigenvalue for linear systems (or unit‐root systems for discrete‐time processes) is wrong and, moreover, how the imprecise use of the concepts can lead to the particular constraints affecting unit‐root econometrics being overlooked.

Discusses a number of issues put forward by the other authors in this volume. In particular considers the potential role of real interest rates in unemployment models, the importance of the trade balance and related constraints in open economy models and the uniqueness and stability of unemployment equilibria.

The analysis of the processes determining unemployment in an open economy has been considerably advanced by the work of Layard, Nickell and Jackman in their book Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market. Reviews their contribution. They have developed an analysis based on the role of the “wedge” between the producer and consumer wages. This wedge depends, in part, on the real exchange rate. A change in the wedge may change the bargain between unions and employers. If it does, then a change in the real exchange rate may change the equilibrium level of unemployment. It is frequently claimed that this is, indeed, the case. Argues that the theoretical and empirical support for this proposition is rather weak.

Incorrect inflationary expectations affect the unemployment rate, hence the question of how expectations are formed is crucial. Examines two hypotheses which have dominated the discussion: the adaptive (AEH) and the rational expectations hypothesis (REH). During the 1980s it was assumed that REH was to be preferred to AEH, but various problems with REH have emerged. Focuses on two of these problems: whether participants in the labour market have the requisite information; and the presence of multiple RE equilibria. It may therefore be necessary for agents to co‐ordinate their expectations. Suggests that institutions of the labour market might hold the key to this question of co‐ordination.