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The case depicts an opportunity for students to be exposed to the decision theory concept. The study aims to encourage them to use the data given in the case and exhibits to explore as follows: decision-making under uncertainty; decision-making under risk; compare and contrast uncertainty and risk; and evaluate the value of perfect information EVPI and understand its application in decision-making.

Vikas Teerth, a budding entrepreneur, wanted to venture out into the pineapple business. He had three land plots available, but he would like to take up a single plot after analyzing the possible returns factoring the volatile prices and other impending constraints. He wanted to use the decision-making approaches with the aid of probability to arrive at the best decision. This case helps the instructors to introduce the concept of decision-making under risk and under uncertainty which comes under the preview of decision theory. Students can use the data given in the case and exhibits to do the necessary calculations required and thereby get an insight into the process of calculated decision-making.

This case can teach decision theory in undergraduate-level and graduate-level courses in operations research, decision-making and industrial engineering. It can also be used to discuss issues and challenges faced in start-ups or SME entrepreneurship.

Teaching notes are available for educators only.

CSS 7: Management Science.

Marketing Management, Product Management, Marketing Strategy.

Bachelor of Business Studies, MBA, Executive MBA.

The case throws light on the intensely competitive Indian passenger car market and its unique challenges faced by Hyundai Motors India Limited (HMIL). It tries to capture the evolution of this dynamic industry, which is characterized by regular product launches and re-positioning efforts. The students are expected to assess the performance of HMIL and the success of its positioning efforts through multiple quantitative and qualitative data points given in the case. The students need to come up with recommendations whether, amidst intense competition, Government regulations and changing consumer expectations, HMIL should launch new products in its portfolio? If, yes, in which segments? And what should be the guiding philosophy behind such product launches?

The case is expected to guide students: 1. in comprehending the various macro-environmental factors that has made India an attractive passenger car market to invest and operate in, to virtually all multinational players across all segments; 2. in analyzing how the passenger car market is segmented in India; 3. in assessing the product-driven segment-wise performance by HMIL specifically and organizations in general and what are its implications on decision-making; this is indicative of the brand portfolio management based on BCG Brand/Product Portfolio Growth Share Matrix; 4. in assessing the impact of re-positioning on the firms performance judged before and after the re-positioning efforts by the firm; 5. in analyzing the market potential of SUVs and MUVs in India and whether HMIL should launch new products/brands for these segments; and 6. in deliberating on the guiding philosophy in new product launches around the concept of “Consumer Perceived Value”.

Teaching notes are available for educators only. Please contact your library to gain login details or email support@emeraldinsight.com to request teaching notes.

CSS 8: Marketing.

At the end of the case students will be able to:

1. Relate risk as one of the 12 principles in project management contemplated in the international standards of the PMBOK Seventh Edition guide.

2. Determine high-level risks by articulating the WBS and RBS of a construction project.

3. Perform a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the probability and impact of risks through the heat map tool and the Expected Monetary Value (EMV) technique.

4. Propose the different response strategies contemplated in the risk management through the formulation of a response and contingency plan.

MORESA S.A.S was a family company founded in 1994, whose value proposition focused on construction and permanent advice for the execution of innovative and contemporary projects with more than 27 years of experience in the city of San José de Cucuta, department of Norte de Santander, Colombia. The objective of the case is to Relate risk as one of the 12 principles in project management contemplated in the international standards of the PMBOK Seventh Edition guide; Determine high-level risks by articulating the WBS and RBS of a construction project; Perform a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the probability and impact of risks through the heat map tool and the Expected Monetary Value (EMV) technique and propose the different response strategies contemplated in the risk management through the formulation of a response and contingency plan. The teaching case is designed for academic programs in areas of knowledge of civil engineering, architecture and at postgraduate level such as: Master’s in civil engineering, Master’s in risk management, Master in project management or MBA. For this case, an expert judgment was developed with professionals belonging to different areas of knowledge. Likewise, secondary information was collected from the organization's strategic documents and the analogous estimation through the historical records of the project portfolio developed by the construction company. Finally, the case, classified in the Built Environment, a challenge that project managers must face in VUCA environment through risk management.

The teaching case is designed for academic programs in areas of knowledge of civil engineering, architecture and at postgraduate level such as: Master’s in civil engineering, Master’s in risk management, Master’s in project management or MBA. In the modules of risk management, project management, international standards, the case guides the applicability of methods and artifacts used in risk management considering the process identification, quantitative, qualitative analysis, and development of response strategies and contingency plans.

Teaching notes are available for educators only.

CSS 2: Built Environment.

After completing this case, students should be able to: identify and compute relevant cash flows in relation to a real estate project and compute the net present value (NPV). Determine the target return or cost of capital (by looking at historical economic indicators). Design or formulate a sensitivity analysis to determine the drivers of the project value. Evaluate real estate and other investments taking qualitative and quantitative factors into consideration. Demonstrate the computation of a break-even rate to determine the minimum or maximum revenue or cost required for a project to be viable.

This case study is about the Golden Beak Securities Pension Fund that wanted to invest in a Hostel Project in one of the universities in Ghana. Most universities in Ghana faced an acute shortage of on-campus accommodation. Also, the Government of Ghana, in 2017, implemented a programme to make Senior High School in Ghana free. This was expected to increase the number of students who will enter the existing universities. The project was therefore seen as strategic, as it would help ease the pressure of on-campus accommodation while providing diversification for the pension fund. As part of the investment committee’s (IC) quest to improve the skill set available to it, especially in relation to real estate investments, Esi Abebrese was appointed as one of the members of the IC of GSB. Her main task was to collect information on key macroeconomic variables, as well as granular information on project costs and revenues and conduct investment appraisal. Esi was scheduled to make a presentation to the IC on the 15th of October 2019 following which the Committee will debate and make a decision. The project had an estimated cost of GH¢52m with a total number of 3,424 student beds and ancillary facilities. Undertaking the project required moving funds from investments in money market securities with one of the banks in Ghana. The investments in the money market securities were currently yielding about 16% a year. The determination of the cost of capital was critical and Esi and Nana eventually settled on a long-term weighted average cost of capital of 14%. This was after considering the trend of inflation, monetary policy rates, treasury rates, stock market returns and a report on returns on commercial real estate properties in Ghana. An exit capitalisation rate of 20% was also estimated for the purposes of determining the value of the property at the end of the investment horizon. Esi also obtained estimates of cost and revenue for the project and proceeded to carry out a feasibility analysis on the project. This consisted of an NPV analysis and sensitivity analysis on various factors to determine the drivers of the project value. The IC had to take several factors (both quantitative and qualitative) into consideration before making a decision. Esi believed that these factors included the diversification of the fund’s assets, the return on investment, potential oversupply of hostel accommodation, the social responsibility of providing student accommodation and the impact of any prolonged shutdown of the university.

Masters/advanced undergraduate.

Teaching Notes are available for educators only. Please contact your library to gain login details or email support@emeraldinsight.com to request teaching notes.

CSS 1: Accounting and Finance.

Crutchfield, a large U.S. mail-order firm specializing in consumer electronics and personal computers, must evaluate the results of a recent "prospecting" mailing to a rented list of names. A determination of the mailing requires the calculation of the lifetime value of the new customers acquired. Case data on repurchase probabilities (broken out by recency and frequency) support such a calculation. The case can also be used to introduce the RFM (recency, frequency, monetary value) framework for valuing customers.

Pricing, digital marketing, marketing management and strategic marketing.

The case can be used for pricing or digital marketing courses as well as marketing management courses to MBA students and/or for management development programmes.

Goldfinch Mobile Solutions, a Hong-Kong based value added services (VAS) and gaming platform provider, had an exclusive tie up with Bharti Airtel in India for providing value added voice applications on an interactive voice response system (IVRS) platform. The Goldfinch flagship service is “Guru Ki Bani” which may be subscribed to by dialing the short code 58282. This “58282” service has a repository of all Sikh religion daily prayers, religious songs, teachings, stories from Guru's life and similar information that is derived from the Sikh Holy book Guru Granth Sahib Ji. As per mutual agreement between Goldfinch Mobile Solutions and Bharti Airtel, the telecom operator had the responsibility to promote Goldfinch's Guru Ki Bani service amongst its subscriber base through its below the line (BTL) promotional channels such as short messaging service (SMS), outbound calls, cell information, notification SMS after call and above the line (ATL) activities such as posters, leaflets, print, promoters, regional TV, outdoors, etc. The revenue sharing arrangement between Airtel and Golfinch was in the ratio of 75 percent and 25 percent. However, with recent changes in the policies of Telephone Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI), promotional marketing used by telecom operators has been constrained. Declining customer share, decreasing profits (after Bharti Airtel halted promotions) and increasing organization cost per customer have made MD and CEO Mr Newton Bubber think of various options including low-cost marketing initiatives besides digital marketing to promote Guru Ki Bani services. Value communication to its huge potential customer base, i.e. 184.19 million Bharti Airtel subscribers was another challenge facing Mr Newton and his marketing team at Goldfinch.

The case enables students to learn the concepts and application of value creation, effective value communication, price waterfall analysis, importance of costing parameters in pricing decisions, low-cost marketing strategies and digital marketing.

Teaching notes are available for educators only. Please contact your library to gain login details or email support@emeraldinsight.com to request teaching notes.

1. Probabilistic calculations of cost, and profit/loss using standard probability functions

2. Decision tree to find the expected monetary value (EMV) of different options.

3. Monte Carlo simulation for risk analysis.

4. Risk analysis in project management.

Learners will be able to understand and apply the following: how to approach uncertainty in business decisions using probabilistic calculations of cost, and profit/loss using standard probability functions; how to address uncertainty in business decisions by looking forward and reasoning backward, using the decision tree technique and the EMV of different decisions; how to analyse the risk inherent in business decisions by incorporating probability distributions for all critical variables in the form of Monte Carlo simulation; and appreciation of strategic considerations in risk analysis as it applies to project management

The case describes the challenge facing Vilas Birari, the owner and chief executive of Harsh Constructions, a construction company headquartered in Nasik, India. Birari had to decide on the bid for a construction project in September of 2021, during the COVID-19 (COVID) pandemic. Due to successive waves of the pandemic, the state and federal governments announced lockdowns intermittently, causing uncertainty in costs related to labor, material and project completion. The dilemma before Birari was how to set a bid price that was not so low as to incur a loss and not so high as to lose the bid to competitors. The uncertainty made Birari’s decision-making complex. The case invites students to help Birari find an optimum bid price by using various quantitative techniques, such as Monte Carlo simulation and decision trees.

This case is intended for students of management at a master’s level, in an elective course on management science, which is often also known as decision science. This compact case can be positioned in the second half of the course, when exploring risk management using computer simulation as a tool. The case serves both as an introduction to using simulation to manage uncertainty as well a contrast with simpler methods that are covered earlier in the course.

Teaching notes are available for educators only.

CSS 7: Management Science.

Entrepreneurship, Analysis of business problems.

Masters in business administration, Entrepreneurship management.

The CEO of Afrotouch Brands, Mr Emeka Emmanuel, must decide what level of investment his company would need to implement to increase its market share and revenue, thus ensuring adequate business competitiveness. Afrotouch Brands was among the leading names in gift items and indoor furniture in Nigeria. Despite the business main outlet in Victoria Island, the highbrow commercial centre in the city of Lagos, it has other high-profile outlets in Port-Harcourt and Abuja. From the very beginning, Afrotouch Brands attracted a lot of well discerning individuals who patronized the business based on the quality, the wide variety, the uniqueness and the lovely ambience of the showroom. The case describes the various investment alternatives needed for business expansion and discusses the probabilities of possible outcomes. Afrotouch Brands could maintain the medium scale indoor furniture they are currently doing, embark on a large aggressive investment to expand the indoor medium scale furniture to a large scale, maintain their business strategy in gift items and accessories or invest in outdoor furniture manufacturing. The challenge is to decide which of these alternative investment strategies the company should undertake in view of the associated levels of risk and uncertainty inherent in their implementation.

This case study teaches students the following: fundamentals of decision trees construction; calculating and understanding expected monetary values; assessing probabilities; determination of risk profiles for each decision alternative; display of risk profiles graphically; and identification of business alternatives.

Teaching notes are available for educators only. Please contact your library to gain login details or email support@emeraldinsight.com to request teaching notes.

CSS 3: Entrepreneurship.

The case presents a significant amount of information on the outbreak of COVID-19 and the expected impact on the economy. Although the case is necessarily concise, several links are given to the online articles and video material on which the case is based. This allows participants to deepen their knowledge of the virus and their understanding of its likely economic impact. To frame the discussion, several philosophies, ranging from Libertarianism to Marxism, are lightly expounded. Readers will need to consider divergent ideas; the sanctity of human life versus the monetary value of a life; the hysteria evoked by COVID-19 deaths versus the placid acceptance of an annual 66,000 deaths by another disease – TB; and the differential economic impact of the virus across extremes of inequality. Perhaps, the key issue relates to the skewness in the death rate: Should young people’s livelihood be sacrificed for a few old people about to die anyway? The case also illustrates the essence of a dilemma – a situation in which a difficult choice has to be made between two or more alternatives, especially ones that are equally undesirable.

In March 2020, South African President Cyril Ramaposa ordered a 21-day national “lockdown” to enable and enforce social distancing in an effort to slow the spread of the COVID-19. Many other countries had already taken similar steps, but in a country with 43,000 murders annually, South Africa’s response to only 11 COVID-19 deaths and 1,071 cases was both rapid and harsh. Schools, businesses, social areas and parks were closed. Medical emergencies, essential services and weekly grocery shopping were the only permissible activities. Two weeks after lockdown, there were 1,845 cases and 18 deaths, a far cry from the predicted 30,000 cases and 300 deaths, estimated on the basis of the three-day doubling rate at the start of lockdown. Many businesses, pulverised by closure, daily wage earners and those fearful of losing jobs were hopeful that the lockdown would not be extended. In a country with immense inequality, how would the masses under the age of 65 years, already in poverty and now with their lives pulled apart by an imported disease of the wealthy, respond to extended social and economic deprivation followed by bailouts for business?

MBA and Executive Education

Teaching Notes are available for educators only.

CSS: 11 Strategy.

The case will offer insight to the students regarding the idea generation and development of a viable sustainable venture. It will promote the understanding of students regarding SDGs and how SMEs can contribute towards their attainment. They will learn to develop the action plan for a green business venture and understand how each of the business activity in each phase of value chain contributes towards environmental, economic and social sustainability.

Rana Waseem, a young business graduate started a small ecopreneurial venture to offer sustainable food from raw material till disposal in developing nation context named as Dhuaan ‘n’ Dukhaan (D ‘n’ D) in Sargodha, Pakistan. He had an aim to create a model of business that not only supports the local economy in terms of offering decent employment but also promotes a food business that generates nutritional self-sufficiency as per the triple bottom line concept. This case gives an exploratory insight into the actual sustainable operations that have survived eight months successfully and on the path of growth without profit being the sole aim. D ‘n’ D has benefited the lives of people in Sargodha by offering job opportunities, a decent wage, healthy food at affordable rates, reduction in diseases, reducing food wastage and efficient resource usage with a positive impact on the environment.

The case is suitable for undergraduate and post graduate students studying entrepreneurship and small business management.

Teaching Notes are available for educators only. Please contact your library to gain login details or email support@emeraldinsight.com to request teaching notes.

CSS 3: Entrepreneurship