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1 – 10 of over 98000Guojin Gong, Yue Li and Ling Zhou
It has been widely documented that investors and analysts underreact to information in past earnings changes, a fundamental performance indicator. The purpose of this paper is to…
Abstract
Purpose
It has been widely documented that investors and analysts underreact to information in past earnings changes, a fundamental performance indicator. The purpose of this paper is to examine whether managers’ voluntary disclosure efficiently incorporates information in past earnings changes, whether analysts recognize and fully anticipate the potential inefficiency in management forecasts and whether managers’ potential forecasting inefficiency entirely results from intentional disclosure strategies or at least partly reflects managers’ unintentional information processing biases.
Design/methodology/approach
Archival data were used to empirically test the relation between management earnings forecast errors and past earnings changes.
Findings
Results show that managers underreact to past earnings changes when projecting future earnings and analysts recognize, but fail to fully anticipate, the predictable bias associated with past earnings changes in management forecasts. Moreover, analysts appear to underreact more to past earnings changes when management forecasts exhibit greater underestimation of earnings change persistence. Further analyses suggest that the underestimation of earnings change persistence is at least partly attributable to managers’ unintentional information processing bias.
Originality/value
This study contributes to the voluntary disclosure literature by demonstrating the limitation in the informational value of management forecasts. The findings indicate that the effectiveness of voluntary disclosure in mitigating market mispricing is inherently limited by the inefficiency in management forecasts. This study can help market participants to better use management forecasts to form more accurate earnings expectations. Moreover, our evidence suggests a managerial information processing bias with respect to past earnings changes, which may affect managers' operational, investment or financing decisions.
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Niklas Kreilkamp, Maximilian Schmidt and Arnt Wöhrmann
The purpose of this paper is to investigate if and how firms approach debiasing and what determines its success. In particular, this study examines if debiasing is effective in…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to investigate if and how firms approach debiasing and what determines its success. In particular, this study examines if debiasing is effective in reducing cognitive decision biases. This paper also investigates organizational characteristics that determine the effectiveness of debiasing.
Design/methodology/approach
This study uses survey data from German firms to answer the research questions. Target respondents are individuals in a senior management accounting function.
Findings
In line with the hypotheses, this paper finds that debiasing can reduce cognitive biases. Moreover, this study finds that psychological safety not only directly influences the occurrence of cognitive biases but is also an important factor that determines the effectiveness of debiasing.
Research limitations/implications
This paper provides evidence that debiasing can serve as a powerful management accounting tool and discusses debiasing in the context of recent management accounting literature. This study also adds to the stream of research that investigates the role of psychological safety in organizations by highlighting its importance for successful debiasing.
Practical implications
This paper informs firms that use or intend to use debiasing about crucial determinants to consider when debating its implementation, i.e. psychological safety. This study also identifies risk management as a potential interface for the implementation of systematic debiasing.
Originality/value
While previous research primarily addresses specific cognitive biases and debiasing mechanisms using lab experiments, this is – to the best of the knowledge – the first study investigating cognitive biases and debiasing on a broad conceptual level using survey data.
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This study examines (1) the extent of key audit matters (KAMs) reported by auditors is related to accounting estimates, (2) whether measurement uncertainty and management bias…
Abstract
Purpose
This study examines (1) the extent of key audit matters (KAMs) reported by auditors is related to accounting estimates, (2) whether measurement uncertainty and management bias affect auditors to do so and (3) whether the use of accounting estimates, given the measurement uncertainty and management bias reported in KAMs adversely affects the decision usefulness of accounting information.
Design/methodology/approach
Data on key audit matters, accounting estimates, measurement uncertainty, management bias, etc. were collected from the auditor's reports of 351 sample Chinese listed firms. It employs regression analyses to assess the hypotheses on issues affecting the report of these key audit matters and the impacts on the decision usefulness of accounting information.
Findings
Fair value and impairment loss estimations make up of 2.6 and 44.1% of the 606 KAMs identified, respectively. Measurement uncertainty is positively, while management bias is negatively, affecting auditors report KAMs related to accounting estimates. The use of accounting estimates in firms where their auditors reported the KAMs related to accounting estimates does not enhance the value and predictive relevance of reported earnings. The assurance works on, and reporting of, KAMs served as a “red flag” about the accounting estimates.
Practical implications
The use of accounting estimates does not always lead to enhanced decision-useful accounting information. Auditors, in their stewardship role, shall ensure that the measurement uncertainty issue is appropriately identified, addressed and verified. In addition, they shall provide an effective check-and-balance to the accounting discretion managers have in providing decision-useful information from opportunistic reporting.
Originality/value
This study examines the proposition that while the use of estimates can enhance the decision usefulness of accounting information, it can also induce measurement uncertainty and management bias into financial reporting.
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Thai Young Kim, Rommert Dekker and Christiaan Heij
The purpose of this paper is to show that intentional demand forecast bias can improve warehouse capacity planning and labour efficiency. It presents an empirical methodology to…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to show that intentional demand forecast bias can improve warehouse capacity planning and labour efficiency. It presents an empirical methodology to detect and implement forecast bias.
Design/methodology/approach
A forecast model integrates historical demand information and expert forecasts to support active bias management. A non-linear relationship between labour productivity and forecast bias is employed to optimise efficiency. The business analytic methods are illustrated by a case study in a consumer electronics warehouse, supplemented by a survey among 30 warehouses.
Findings
Results indicate that warehouse management systematically over-forecasts order sizes. The case study shows that optimal bias for picking and loading is 30-70 per cent with efficiency gains of 5-10 per cent, whereas the labour-intensive packing stage does not benefit from bias. The survey results confirm productivity effects of forecast bias.
Research limitations/implications
Warehouse managers can apply the methodology in their own situation if they systematically register demand forecasts, actual order sizes and labour productivity per warehouse stage. Application is illustrated for a single warehouse, and studies for alternative product categories and labour processes are of interest.
Practical implications
Intentional forecast bias can lead to smoother workflows in warehouses and thus result in higher labour efficiency. Required data include historical data on demand forecasts, order sizes and labour productivity. Implementation depends on labour hiring strategies and cost structures.
Originality/value
Operational data support evidence-based warehouse labour management. The case study validates earlier conceptual studies based on artificial data.
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Ivo Hristov, Riccardo Camilli and Alessandro Mechelli
The purpose of this paper is twofold: to provide a clear picture on the cognitive biases affecting managers’ decision-making process of implementing a performance management…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is twofold: to provide a clear picture on the cognitive biases affecting managers’ decision-making process of implementing a performance management system (PMS), and to identify managerial practices, measures and the key challenges to manage the cognitive biases in the corporate strategy.
Design/methodology/approach
Semi-structured interviews, based on theoretical milestones of performance management and cognitive psychology, gathered from 104 experienced professionals’ evaluations on the likelihood and impact of managers’ cognitive biases in PMS implementation, potential solutions as well as drivers and connected criticalities.
Findings
Recurring cognitive biases, together with considerable impacts, emerged in the first, and most strategic, phases of the PMS implementation. The authors developed a roadmap to support corporate transition to integrate behavioral strategy into the PMS implementation aiming to achieve economically and efficiently sound performance.
Research limitations/implications
From the view of proper behavioral strategy affirmation in performance management literature, in a small way, the authors contribute to a desirable taxonomy of cognitive biases so differentiated decision-making scenarios may be built to compare results and draw new observations. Behavioral studies could transversally connect the cognitive biases of performance management to actors’ sociodemographic features and personality types. Practitioners may check biases affecting their organizations by means of the questionnaire and, consequently, adopt the framework illustrated to reduce them.
Originality/value
Performance management literature has constantly investigated positive and negative behavioral factors related to the PMS. This study, instead, makes a theoretical and methodological contribution to the PMS implementation as a decision-making process. The authors propose a theoretical framework that integrates cognitive psychology insights and applies measures to reduce biases.
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Zamri Ahmad, Haslindar Ibrahim and Jasman Tuyon
This paper aims to explore the relevance of bounded rationality to the practice of institutional investors in Malaysia. Understanding institutional investor behavior is important…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to explore the relevance of bounded rationality to the practice of institutional investors in Malaysia. Understanding institutional investor behavior is important, as it can determine the asset prices and consequently the market behavior.
Design/methodology/approach
A set of questionnaires is used to solicit information regarding the understanding and practical application of behavioral finance theories and strategies among fund managers in the Malaysian investment management practice. In the process, bounded rational theory is aimed to be validated. Fund managers’ possible bounded rational behavior is assessed with reference to their investment management approaches and strategies right from individual beliefs and acquisition of information, as well as investment management and strategies used.
Findings
The findings lend support to the notion that institutional investors too, being normal human beings, are expected to think and behave in a boundedly rational manner as postulated in bounded rational theory. The sources of bounded rationality are individual, institutional and social forces. Thus, portfolio trading and investment management strategies are exposed to wide varieties of behavioral risks. Despite the notions that behavioral risks are real and the impact on fund performance could be pervasive, fund managers’ self-awareness regarding control and institutional readiness to govern behavioral risks in investment practices is still low.
Research limitations/implications
Empirical evidence drawn in the current paper is subjected to small sample size and specific focus on Malaysian context. Despite this limitation, the sample is statistically sufficient and provides a fair representation, as well as quality opinions, of fund manager’s investment management behavior in Malaysia. This research provides valuable implications to practitioners (fund managers) and regulators (investment management and capital market policymakers). In practice, the current study draws some practical ideas, especially for buy-side institutional investors, on the source and impact of behavioral biases on fund management practices and performance. For regulators, this research highlighted the needs and possible ways to regulate these behavioral risks.
Originality/value
The current paper provides new insights on the theory and practice of the institutional investor. In theory, this research provides evidence of bounded rationality of institutional investor behavior, practicing in the asset management industry in the emerging markets of Malaysia. This evidence lends support to the validity of the bounded rationality theory in explaining institutional investor behavior. In practice, thisresearch provides new insights on the relevance of behavioral finance perspectives and strategies in the asset management industry practice and policy.
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Niamh M. Brennan, Encarna Guillamon‐Saorin and Aileen Pierce
This paper aims to develop a holistic measure for analysing impression management and for detecting bias introduced into corporate narratives as a result of impression management.
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to develop a holistic measure for analysing impression management and for detecting bias introduced into corporate narratives as a result of impression management.
Design/methodology/approach
Prior research on the seven impression management methods in the literature is summarised. Four of the less‐researched methods are described in detail, and are illustrated with examples from UK annual results' press releases (ARPRs). A method of computing a holistic composite impression management score based on these four impression management methods is developed, based on both quantitative and qualitative data in corporate narrative disclosures. An impression management bias score is devised to capture the extent to which impression management introduces bias into corporate narratives. An example of the application of the composite impression management score and impression management bias score methodology is provided.
Findings
While not amounting to systematic evidence, the 21 illustrative examples suggest that impression management is pervasive in corporate financial communications using multiple impression management methods, such that positive information is exaggerated, while negative information is either ignored or is underplayed.
Originality/value
Four impression management methods are described in detail, illustrated by 21 examples. These four methods are examined together. New impression management methods are studied in this paper for the first time. This paper extends prior impression management measures in two ways. First, a composite impression management score based on four impression management techniques is articulated. Second, the composite impression management score methodology is extended to capture a measure for bias, in the form of an impression management bias score. This is the first time outside the USA that narrative disclosures in press releases have been studied.
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Feelings about conflict in labor relations are determined by both the objective conditions surrounding the dimension of labor relations and their subjective evaluation. This study…
Abstract
Purpose
Feelings about conflict in labor relations are determined by both the objective conditions surrounding the dimension of labor relations and their subjective evaluation. This study aims to examine features of the subjective evaluation factors in labor relations for new generation employees born in the post-1980s, transitional China, and to explore the conflict reduction strategies in labor relations.
Design/methodology/approach
This study designed items and a scale to measure employees’ subjective evaluation bias regarding labor relations, and conducted a survey of 1,500 employees in 80 Chinese enterprises. It conducted a principal components analysis of the subjective evaluation biases, and a covariance analysis to explore differences in the common factors between employees of two generations. Comparing the subjective bias with the objective status of labor relations, as well as with employers’ expectations, this study analyzed the feelings toward conflict and conflict management strategies.
Findings
There are eight common factors in the subjective evaluation bias toward labor relations, four of which show significant differences between employees of two generations. Employers should study these differences, and apply conflict reduction measures to manage labor relations.
Originality/value
This is one of the first studies to propose the concept of a subjective evaluation bias regarding labor relations, and examine the common factors and features among new generation employees. It establishes a model for feelings toward conflict through four combinations of the subjective preferences and objective status dimensions. This study offers new insights for reducing workplace conflict.
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Despite evidence showing that cognitive biases – the systematic errors made by humans during cognitive processing, are prevalent among decision-makers, there is a lack of…
Abstract
Purpose
Despite evidence showing that cognitive biases – the systematic errors made by humans during cognitive processing, are prevalent among decision-makers, there is a lack of theoretical models providing insight into how these limitations of human mind might affect decisions made during performance management. This study aims to fill this gap and contribute to performance management scholarship by proposing a conceptual framework broadening our understanding of the role of cognitive biases in performance improvements practices and by highlighting remedies for cognitive biases.
Design/methodology/approach
Using benchmarking as an example, the authors integrate the knowledge from performance management and cognitive psychology literature. Examples of cognitive biases possible during benchmarking are used to illustrate how the limitations of human mind might have a critical role in performance management.
Findings
The cognitive biases might diminish the positive effect of performance improvement practice on organizational performance. As there is a prevalence of cognitive biases coupled with the inability of individuals to recognize and face them, the remedy for cognitive biases should be sought not at an individual but rather on an organizational level, in creating organizational cognitive biases policy (CBP).
Originality/value
The presented model provides new insights into the role of cognitive biases in performance management and allows seeing CBP as a safeguard against the effects of cognitive biases on performance. By referring to cognitive biases and CBP, our model also helps to understand why the same performance improvement practices might incite different opinions among decision-makers.
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Michael Wayne Davidson, John Parnell and Shaun Wesley Davenport
The purpose of this study is to address a critical gap in enterprise resource planning (ERP) implementation process for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) by acknowledging…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to address a critical gap in enterprise resource planning (ERP) implementation process for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) by acknowledging and countering cognitive biases through a cognitive bias awareness matrix model. Cognitive biases such as temporal discounting and optimism bias often skew decision-making, leading SMEs to prioritize short-term benefits over long-term sustainability or underestimate the challenges involved in ERP implementation. These biases can result in costly missteps, underutilizing ERP systems and project failure. This study enhances decision-making processes in ERP adoption by introducing a matrix that allows SMEs to self-assess their level of awareness and proactivity when addressing cognitive biases in decision-making.
Design/methodology/approach
The design and methodology of this research involves a structured approach using the problem-intervention-comparison-outcome-context (PICOC) framework to systematically explore the influence of cognitive biases on ERP decision-making in SMEs. The study integrates a comprehensive literature review, empirical data analysis and case studies to develop the Cognitive Bias Awareness Matrix. This matrix enables SMEs to self-assess their susceptibility to biases like temporal discounting and optimism bias, promoting proactive strategies for more informed ERP decision-making. The approach is designed to enhance SMEs’ awareness and management of cognitive biases, aiming to improve ERP implementation success rates and operational efficiency.
Findings
The findings underscore the profound impact of cognitive biases and information asymmetry on ERP system selection and implementation in SMEs. Temporal discounting often leads decision-makers to favor immediate cost-saving solutions, potentially resulting in higher long-term expenses due to the lack of scalability. Optimism bias tends to cause underestimating risks and overestimating benefits, leading to insufficient planning and resource allocation. Furthermore, information asymmetry between ERP vendors and SME decision-makers exacerbates these biases, steering choices toward options that may not fully align with the SME’s long-term interests.
Research limitations/implications
The study’s primary limitation is its concentrated focus on temporal discounting and optimism bias, potentially overlooking other cognitive biases that could impact ERP decision-making in SMEs. The PICOC framework, while structuring the research effectively, may restrict the exploration of broader organizational and technological factors influencing ERP success. Future research should expand the range of cognitive biases and explore additional variables within the ERP implementation process. Incorporating a broader array of behavioral economic principles and conducting longitudinal studies could provide a more comprehensive understanding of the challenges and dynamics in ERP adoption and utilization in SMEs.
Practical implications
The practical implications of this study are significant for SMEs implementing ERP systems. By adopting the Cognitive Bias Awareness Matrix, SMEs can identify and mitigate cognitive biases like temporal discounting and optimism bias, leading to more rational and effective decision-making. This tool enables SMEs to shift focus from short-term gains to long-term strategic benefits, improving ERP system selection, implementation and utilization. Regular use of the matrix can help prevent costly implementation errors and enhance operational efficiency. Additionally, training programs designed around the matrix can equip SME personnel with the skills to recognize and address biases, fostering a culture of informed decision-making.
Social implications
The study underscores significant social implications by enhancing decision-making within SMEs through cognitive bias awareness. By mitigating biases like temporal discounting and optimism bias, SMEs can make more socially responsible decisions, aligning their business practices with long-term sustainability and ethical standards. This shift improves operational outcomes and promotes a culture of accountability and transparency. The widespread adoption of the Cognitive Bias Awareness Matrix can lead to a more ethical business environment, where decisions are made with a deeper understanding of their long-term impacts on employees, customers and the broader community, fostering trust and sustainability in the business ecosystem.
Originality/value
This research introduces the original concept of the Cognitive Bias Awareness Matrix, a novel tool designed specifically for SMEs to evaluate and mitigate cognitive biases in ERP decision-making. This matrix fills a critical gap in the existing literature by providing a structured, actionable framework that effectively empowers SMEs to recognize and address biases such as temporal discounting and optimism bias. Its practical application promises to enhance decision-making processes and increase the success rates of ERP implementations. This contribution is valuable to behavioral economics and information systems, offering a unique approach to integrating cognitive insights into business technology strategies.
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