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This study aims to explore the asymmetric effects of macroeconomic factors on the profitability of large-cap companies in an emerging country like Colombia, using the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Colombia index as the basis.

We employ a combination of singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and principal component analysis (PCA) to identify and estimate four key macroeconomic factors that account for approximately 47.8% of Colombia's macroeconomy. These factors encompass indicators related to inflation and cost of living, foreign trade and exchange rate, employment and labor force and trade and production in Colombia. We utilize the distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) to analyze the asymmetric relationships between these factors and corporate profitability, considering different scenarios and lags.

Our analysis reveals that there are indeed asymmetric relationships between the identified macroeconomic factors and corporate profitability. These relationships exhibit variability over time and lags, indicating the nuanced nature of their impact on corporate performance.

This study contributes to the existing literature by applying a novel methodology that combines SSA and PCA to identify macroeconomic factors within the Colombian context. Additionally, our focus on asymmetric relationships and their dynamic nature in relation to corporate profitability, using DLNM, adds original insights to the research on this subject.

Little is known about the quantitative impact of macro policies on disaggregated variables. This study investigates the effects of macroeconomic policies and cost/supply shocks on sectoral output growth.

We analyzed empirical evidence from Ghana using a Structural Vector Autoregression approach.

The results show that the transmission of various macro policies and supply/cost shocks is conditional on sectoral idiosyncrasies. Fiscal programs contribute the most to agricultural output growth and the least to industrial production. The downturn from rising costs and supply disruptions is more severe and lasting in the agriculture sector than in the service sector. The evidence shows that fiscal consolidation centered on government consumption cuts would not drag growth over the medium-term.

Our results show that the structural characteristics of a country may play an important role in understanding the output effects of macro policy changes. The empirical evidence shows that targeted policies are needed to complement countercyclical macroeconomic policies to facilitate broad-based economic recovery.

Research on the impact of macro policy shocks on the real economy has usually focused on the behavior of highly aggregated variables. In this research, we focus on disaggregated, sector-level variables to unveil the idiosyncrasies in the performance of disaggregated variables that are usually concealed when studying the behavior of aggregate variables. This study also contributes a different angle to the debate on supply shocks by examining how cost shocks are propagated through the various sectors of the economy.

The peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-11-2023-0876

From these data, the authors construct an uncertainty index through the use of a vector autoregressive (VAR) model to measure the impact of uncertainty on GDP, controlling for inflation, which may affect macroeconomic performance. Results indicate that uncertainty is negatively correlated with the economic cycle and the inter-annual variation of the biannual average product.

This study empirically explores the dynamics of expectations of the Uruguayan manufacturing firms about industrial economic growth. This study explores the dynamics of the industrial economic growth expectations of Uruguayan manufacturing firms. The empirical research is based on firms' expectations data collected through a monthly survey carried out by the Chamber of Industries of Uruguay (CIU) in 2003–2018.

Granger causality tests show that uncertainty Granger-causes industrial production growth and a one standard deviation shock on uncertainty generates a contraction in the industrial production growth rate. Finally, the authors use statistical and network tools to identify groups of firms with similar performance on expectations. Results show that higher uncertainty is associated with smaller, more interconnected groups of firms, and that the number of homogeneous groups and the distance between groups increases with uncertainty. These findings suggest that policies focused on the coordination of expectations can lead to the development of stable opinion groups.

The paper introduces new data and new methodologies to analyze the dynamics of expectations of manufacturing firms about industrial economic growth.

1. An empirical approach to compare expectations of firms is introduced.

2. The occurrence of groups of opinion is tested.

3. Central companies in the network of expectations are detected.

4. More uncertainty implies a higher degree of discrepancy between the overall firm’s opinions and more compact opinion groups.

An empirical approach to compare expectations of firms is introduced.

The occurrence of groups of opinion is tested.

Central companies in the network of expectations are detected.

More uncertainty implies a higher degree of discrepancy between the overall firm’s opinions and more compact opinion groups.

Despite the government’s efforts to protect domestic industries from foreign competition through tariffs, the industrial sector’s contribution to GDP continued to decline in Nigeria. Based on the scenario, this study assessed the symmetric and asymmetric effects of tariffs on industrial performance in Nigeria for the period 1988–2021. Tariff was captured with a tariff rate applied to the weighted mean of all products, while industry value added as a percent of GDP was used as a proxy for industrial performance.

Linear and nonlinear ARDL techniques were used for the analysis.

The symmetric (linear ARDL) results revealed that tariffs have a significant positive effect on industrial performance in both the short and long term. The asymmetric (nonlinear ARDL) results showed that a long-term asymmetry exists between tariffs and industrial performance. It revealed positive effects on industrial performance for both positive and negative tariff changes, with the negative change having a greater impact.

Generally, the results showed that the use of tariffs to protect domestic industries in Nigeria promotes industrial performance. The implication is that the declining contribution of the industrial sector to GDP in Nigeria is not a result of the tariff policy. It shows that the government should look beyond tariff policy to enhance the industrial contribution to GDP.

Nigeria should exercise caution in using tariff policies to protect domestic industries to avoid retaliation from their trade partners that could reverse the positive impacts.

The current research aims to investigate the impact of coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) evolution, government stringency measures and economic resilience on stock market volatility in the Middle East and North African (MENA) emerging markets. Other macroeconomic factors were also taken into account.

Based on financial data from 10 selected MENA countries, we tested an integrated framework that has not yet been explored in prior research. The exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (E-GARCH) was adopted to analyze data from March 2020 to February 2022.

Our research illustrates the direct and indirect effects of the virus outbreak on stock market stability and reports that economic resilience could alleviate the volatility shock. This finding is robust across the various proxies of economic resilience used in this study. We also argue that the negative impact of the pandemic on equity market variation gets more pronounced in countries with higher level of stringency scores.

Policymakers ought to strengthen their economic structures and reinforce the economic governance at the national level to gain existing and potential investors’ trust and ensure lower stock market volatilities in times of crisis. Our study also recommends some key economic factors to consider while establishing efficient policies to tackle unexpected shocks and prevent financial meltdowns.

Our findings add to the evolving literature on the reaction of economic and financial markets to the sanitary crisis, particularly in developing countries where research is still scarce. This study is the first of its kind to investigate the stock market reaction to stringency measures in the understudied MENA region.

In light of Bangladesh’s economy, the goal of this study is to examine the “Twin Deficit Hypothesis (TDH),” which refers to a link between the budget deficit and the current account deficit. This study used yearly time series data from 1980 to 2020 to investigate the phenomena.

A multivariate autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) model has been presented for empirical investigation, with the ARDL bound test investigating the co-integration between the inadequacies. As some of the variables in the bound test lack co-integration, the study adds a multivariate vector autoregressive (VAR) model later on.

With evidence of the result, the study supports the validation of twin deficit hypothesis in Bangladesh economy since both current account deficit and fiscal deficit affects each other significantly whereas Granger causality test confirms that fiscal deficit causes current account deficit but not the other way around.

The government should maintain a restrictive monetary policy in order to stabilize the current account deficit.

The novelty of this study is the incorporation of inflation, real exchange rate and GDP per capital to TDH that together form the basis for a macroeconomic snapshot of the economy.

Given the sudden increase in plant investments across the manufacturing sector due to recent disruptions in the global supply chain caused by the COVID pandemic, the Ukraine/Russian war, ocean piracy incidents, and others, there is a need to strategically align the investments decisions with the overall business strategy. This study aims to establish whether strategic alignment enhances the effect of plant investments on operational performance.

Using the fifth version of the Global Manufacturing Research Group (GMRG V) dataset, we employ a structural equation model (SEM) to establish the moderating role of strategic alignment in plant investments-operational performance relationships.

The results suggest that strategic alignment enhances the positive effect of plant investments on operational performance, especially in cost, delivery, flexibility, and innovation. However, we found partial support for the moderating role of strategic alignment on quality performance.

Although the study was based on the GMRG global dataset and numerous papers have been published using the same dataset, the use of a convenience sample on a select group of companies may limit the generalizability of the results. With the increase in new plant investments in computer chip manufacturing, electronics, and electrical in recent years, the findings could help corporate executives maximize the benefits of their investment decisions. Companies should ensure that their plant investment decisions are strategically aligned with their overall business strategy to achieve optimal outcomes.

With the increase in new plant investments in computer chip manufacturing, electronics, and electrical in recent years, the findings could help corporate executives maximize the benefits of their investment decisions. Companies should ensure that their plant investment decisions are strategically aligned with their overall business strategy to achieve optimal outcomes.

The study comprehensively demonstrates that the extent of improvement in operational performance depends on how closely plant investment decisions align with the overall company strategy. Manufacturers should align major investment decisions with competitive priorities driven by market requirements to enhance operational performance.

The authors construct an index of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) for Greece using textual analysis and analyze its role in the 10-year Greek economic crisis.

To identify the causal relationship between various measures of economic activity and EPU in Greece, the authors use a sophisticated “shock-based” structural vector autoregressive identification scheme. Additionally, the authors use two additional models to ensure the robustness of the results.

EPU is negatively associated with domestic economic activity and economic sentiment, and positively with bond credit spreads. EPU is also estimated to have prolonged the crisis even in periods when macroeconomic imbalances were cured. The results are robust across various model specifications and different proxies of economic activity.

Brunnermeier (2017) observed that uncertainty may be central to understanding the evolution of the Greek crisis. Yet little attention has been paid to policy uncertainty in the existing long and growing literature on the Greek crisis. The authors attempt to fill this gap.

As the Philippines enters into the era of the “next normal,” that is, from the pandemic era called the “new normal,” we look into how the Philippines' state of tourism and built environment sectors. We also revisit its situation having the “longest lockdown in the world” and look into iterations of socioeconomic models, business platforms, and other elements that lead to the dream of a postpandemic sustainable tourism industry. In this inquiry, we highlight the importance of elements of the built environment, both at the macroeconomic level and at the micro units of business, civil society, and the tourism sector at large. While there has been a substantive discussion on the nexus of the tourism and built environment sectors, little has been devoted to the challenges these intertwined sectors faced during the COVID-19 pandemic. We suggest complementation of practices from the macroscale to the microlevel tourism and built environment sectors, and vice-versa, which will ensure the full complementation of the sectors. These proposals are in full contextualization of the objective toward the postpandemic continued recovery, growth, and sustainability, from the local, national, and the regional economy of Southeast Asia, and also to various parts of the world.