Pace of economic growth in Belarus will cool

Significance

For the past year, growth was driven by growing exports to Russia and the easy availability of Russian loans. This contributed to robust growth in manufacturing and agriculture, although it concealed a deterioration in the financial health of many Belarusian enterprises.

Impacts

• Belarus will seek to expand trade relationships with countries of the Global South.
• China will remain a high-priority market for Belarusian exporters to replace waning Russian demand.
• The authorities will likely resort to monetary expansion to boost output, which will cause inflation to accelerate.