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1 – 10 of over 3000The main goal of this paper is to investigate whether there is long-memory behavior in the CBOE Brazil ETF volatility index (named here VIXBR). As structural breaks may create a…
Abstract
Purpose
The main goal of this paper is to investigate whether there is long-memory behavior in the CBOE Brazil ETF volatility index (named here VIXBR). As structural breaks may create a spurious long-range dependence, the presence of structural breaks is also gauged.
Design/methodology/approach
The study considers the period from October 2011 to March 2021, using daily data. To test the long-memory behavior, three empirical approaches are adopted: GPH, ELW and robust GPH (RGPH) estimator. To estimate the structural break points adopted to date the subsamples, the ICSS algorithm is used.
Findings
Results considering the total period (TP) and subsamples show that the breaks did not create a spurious long-memory behavior and together with the rolling estimation, reveal strong evidence of the long-range dependence in the CBOE Brazil ETF volatility index. The higher degree of persistent of the VIXBR series suggests an extended period of increased uncertainty that agents need consider when making their investment decision.
Research limitations/implications
As possible extension of this study is to investigate the behavior of long memory and structural breaks for different frequencies (weekly, monthly, among others).
Practical implications
The presence of long-range dependence in the CBOE Brazil ETF volatility index reveals that the past information is important for the predictability of risks, and therefore, can help to protect against market risks, which has important implications regarding the future decisions of economic agents (for example, policy makers and investors).
Originality/value
Brazil is an emerging capital market (ECM) that has attracted a great deal of attention from investors and investment funds seeking to diversify its assets. This paper contributes to the empirical financial literature, by studying the long-memory behavior of the CBOE Brazil ETF volatility index, considering possible structural breaks. To the best of knowledge, this has not been done so far.
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Miriam Sosa, Edgar Ortiz and Alejandra Cabello-Rosales
The purpose of this research is to analyze the Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) long memory and conditional volatility.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this research is to analyze the Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) long memory and conditional volatility.
Design/methodology/approach
The empirical approach includes ARFIMA-HYGARCH and ARFIMA-FIGARCH, both models under Student‘s t-distribution, during the period (ETH: November 9, 2017 to November 25, 2021 and BTC: September 17, 2014 to November 25, 2021).
Findings
Findings suggest that ARFIMA-HYGARCH is the best model to analyze BTC volatility, and ARFIMA-FIGARCH is the best approach to model ETH volatility. Empirical evidence also confirms the existence of long memory on returns and on BTC volatility parameters. Results evidence that the models proposed are not as suitable for modeling ETH volatility as they are for the BTC.
Originality/value
Findings allow to confirm the fractal market hypothesis in BTC market. The data confirm that, despite the impact of the Covid-19 crisis, the dynamics of BTC returns, and volatility maintained their patterns, i.e. the way in which they evolve, in relation to the prepandemic era, did not change, but it is rather reaffirmed. Yet, ETH conditional volatility was more affected, as it is apparently higher during Covid-19. The originality of the research lies in the focus of the analysis, the proposed methodology and the variables and periods of study.
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Bikramaditya Ghosh, Mariya Gubareva, Noshaba Zulfiqar and Ahmed Bossman
The authors target the interrelationships between non-fungible tokens (NFTs), decentralized finance (DeFi) and carbon allowances (CA) markets during 2021–2023. The recent shift of…
Abstract
Purpose
The authors target the interrelationships between non-fungible tokens (NFTs), decentralized finance (DeFi) and carbon allowances (CA) markets during 2021–2023. The recent shift of crypto and DeFi miners from China (the People's Republic of China, PRC) green hydro energy to dirty fuel energies elsewhere induces investments in carbon offsetting instruments; this is a backdrop to the authors’ investigation.
Design/methodology/approach
The quantile vector autoregression (VAR) approach is employed to examine extreme-quantile-connectedness and spillovers among the NFT Index (NFTI), DeFi Pulse Index (DPI), KraneShares Global Carbon Strategy ETF price (KRBN) and the Solactive Carbon Emission Allowances Rolling Futures Total Return Index (SOLCARBT).
Findings
At bull markets, DPI is the only consistent net shock transmitter as NFTI transmits innovations only at the most extreme quantile. At bear markets, KRBN and SOLCARBT are net shock transmitters, while NFTI is the only consistent net shock receiver. The receiver-transmitter roles change as a function of the market conditions. The increases in the relative tail dependence correspond to the stress events, which make systemic connectedness augment, turning market-specific idiosyncratic considerations less relevant.
Originality/value
The shift of digital asset miners from the PRC has resulted in excessive fuel energy consumption and aggravated environmental consequences regarding NFTs and DeFi mining. Although there exist numerous studies dedicated to CA trading and its role in carbon print reduction, the direct nexus between NFT, DeFi and CA has never been addressed in the literature. The originality of the authors’ research consists in bridging this void. Results are valuable for portfolio managers in bull and bear markets, as the authors show that connectedness is more intense under such conditions.
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This paper investigates how various strategies for combining forecasts, both simple and optimised approaches, are compared with popular individual risk models in estimating…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper investigates how various strategies for combining forecasts, both simple and optimised approaches, are compared with popular individual risk models in estimating value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) in emerging market at alternative risk levels.
Design/methodology/approach
Using the case study of the Vietnamese stock market, the author produced one-day-ahead VaR and ES forecast from seven individual risk models and ten alternative forecast combinations. Next, the author employed a battery of backtesting procedures and alternative loss functions to evaluate the global predictive accuracy of the different methods. Finally, the author investigated the relative performance over time of VaR and ES forecasts using fluctuation test.
Findings
The empirical results indicate that, although combined forecasts have reasonable predictive abilities, they are often outperformed by one individual risk model. Furthermore, the author showed that the complex combining methods with optimised weighting functions do not perform better than simple combining methods. The fluctuation test suggests that the poor performance of combined forecasts is mainly due to their inability to cope with periods of instability.
Research limitations/implications
This study reveals the limitation of combining strategies in the one-day-ahead VaR and ES forecasts in emerging markets. A possible direction for further research is to investigate whether this finding holds for multi-day ahead forecasts. Moreover, the inferior performance of combined forecasts during periods of instability motivates further research on the combining strategies that take into account for potential structure breaks in the performance of individual risk models. A potential approach is to improve the individual risk models with macroeconomic variables using a mixed-data sampling approach.
Originality/value
First, the authors contribute to the literature on the forecasting combinations for VaR and ES measures. Second, the author explored a wide range of alternative risk models to forecast both VaR and ES with recent data including periods of the COVID-19 pandemic. Although forecast combination strategies have been providing several good results in several fields, the literature of forecast combination in the VaR and ES context is surprisingly limited, especially for emerging market returns. To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first study investigating predictive power of combining methods for VaR and ES in an emerging market.
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Idris A. Adediran, Raymond Swaray, Aminat O. Orekoya and Balikis A. Kabir
This study aims to examine the ability of clean energy stocks to provide cover for investors against market risks related to climate change and disturbances in the oil market.
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to examine the ability of clean energy stocks to provide cover for investors against market risks related to climate change and disturbances in the oil market.
Design/methodology/approach
The study adopts the feasible quasi generalized least squares technique to estimate a predictive model based on Westerlund and Narayan’s (2015) approach to evaluating the hedging effectiveness of clean energy stocks. The out-of-sample forecast evaluations of the oil risk-based and climate risk-based clean energy predictive models are explored using Clark and West’s model (2007) and a modified Diebold & Mariano forecast evaluation test for nested and non-nested models, respectively.
Findings
The study finds ample evidence that clean energy stocks may hedge against oil market risks. This result is robust to alternative measures of oil risk and holds when applied to data from the COVID-19 pandemic. In contrast, the hedging effectiveness of clean energy against climate risks is limited to 4 of the 6 clean energy indices and restricted to climate risk measured with climate policy uncertainty.
Originality/value
The study contributes to the literature by providing extensive analysis of hedging effectiveness of several clean energy indices (global, the United States (US), Europe and Asia) and sectoral clean energy indices (solar and wind) against oil market and climate risks using various measures of oil risk (WTI (West Texas intermediate) and Brent volatility) and climate risk (climate policy uncertainty and energy and environmental regulation) as predictors. It also conducts forecast evaluations of the clean energy predictive models for nested and non-nested models.
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Zengli Mao and Chong Wu
Because the dynamic characteristics of the stock market are nonlinear, it is unclear whether stock prices can be predicted. This paper aims to explore the predictability of the…
Abstract
Purpose
Because the dynamic characteristics of the stock market are nonlinear, it is unclear whether stock prices can be predicted. This paper aims to explore the predictability of the stock price index from a long-memory perspective. The authors propose hybrid models to predict the next-day closing price index and explore the policy effects behind stock prices. The paper aims to discuss the aforementioned ideas.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors found a long memory in the stock price index series using modified R/S and GPH tests, and propose an improved bi-directional gated recurrent units (BiGRU) hybrid network framework to predict the next-day stock price index. The proposed framework integrates (1) A de-noising module—Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) algorithm, (2) a predictive module—BiGRU model, and (3) an optimization module—Grid Search Cross-validation (GSCV) algorithm.
Findings
Three critical findings are long memory, fit effectiveness and model optimization. There is long memory (predictability) in the stock price index series. The proposed framework yields predictions of optimum fit. Data de-noising and parameter optimization can improve the model fit.
Practical implications
The empirical data are obtained from the financial data of listed companies in the Wind Financial Terminal. The model can accurately predict stock price index series, guide investors to make reasonable investment decisions, and provide a basis for establishing individual industry stock investment strategies.
Social implications
If the index series in the stock market exhibits long-memory characteristics, the policy implication is that fractal markets, even in the nonlinear case, allow for a corresponding distribution pattern in the value of portfolio assets. The risk of stock price volatility in various sectors has expanded due to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the R-U conflict on the stock market. Predicting future trends by forecasting stock prices is critical for minimizing financial risk. The ability to mitigate the epidemic’s impact and stop losses promptly is relevant to market regulators, companies and other relevant stakeholders.
Originality/value
Although long memory exists, the stock price index series can be predicted. However, price fluctuations are unstable and chaotic, and traditional mathematical and statistical methods cannot provide precise predictions. The network framework proposed in this paper has robust horizontal connections between units, strong memory capability and stronger generalization ability than traditional network structures. The authors demonstrate significant performance improvements of SSA-BiGRU-GSCV over comparison models on Chinese stocks.
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Artifacts are rarely used today to visualize thoughts, insights, and ideas in strategy work. Rather, textual and verbal communication dominates. This is despite artifacts and…
Abstract
Artifacts are rarely used today to visualize thoughts, insights, and ideas in strategy work. Rather, textual and verbal communication dominates. This is despite artifacts and visual representations holding many advantages as tools to create and make sense of strategy in teamwork. To advance our understanding of the benefits of visual aids in strategy work, I synthesize insights from cognitive psychology, neuroscience, and management research. My analysis exposes distinct neurocognitive advantages concerning attention, emotion, learning, memory, intuition, and creativity from visual sense-building. These advantages increase when sense-building activities are playful and storytelling is used.
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Vaclav Snasel, Tran Khanh Dang, Josef Kueng and Lingping Kong
This paper aims to review in-memory computing (IMC) for machine learning (ML) applications from history, architectures and options aspects. In this review, the authors investigate…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to review in-memory computing (IMC) for machine learning (ML) applications from history, architectures and options aspects. In this review, the authors investigate different architectural aspects and collect and provide our comparative evaluations.
Design/methodology/approach
Collecting over 40 IMC papers related to hardware design and optimization techniques of recent years, then classify them into three optimization option categories: optimization through graphic processing unit (GPU), optimization through reduced precision and optimization through hardware accelerator. Then, the authors brief those techniques in aspects such as what kind of data set it applied, how it is designed and what is the contribution of this design.
Findings
ML algorithms are potent tools accommodated on IMC architecture. Although general-purpose hardware (central processing units and GPUs) can supply explicit solutions, their energy efficiencies have limitations because of their excessive flexibility support. On the other hand, hardware accelerators (field programmable gate arrays and application-specific integrated circuits) win on the energy efficiency aspect, but individual accelerator often adapts exclusively to ax single ML approach (family). From a long hardware evolution perspective, hardware/software collaboration heterogeneity design from hybrid platforms is an option for the researcher.
Originality/value
IMC’s optimization enables high-speed processing, increases performance and analyzes massive volumes of data in real-time. This work reviews IMC and its evolution. Then, the authors categorize three optimization paths for the IMC architecture to improve performance metrics.
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Emma Harriet Wood and Maarit Kinnunen
To explore the value in reminiscing about past festivals as a potential way of improving wellbeing in socially isolated times.
Abstract
Purpose
To explore the value in reminiscing about past festivals as a potential way of improving wellbeing in socially isolated times.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper uses previous research on reminiscence, nostalgia and wellbeing to underpin the analysis of self-recorded memory narratives. These were gathered from 13 pairs of festivalgoers during Covid-19 restrictions and included gathering their individual memories and their reminiscences together. The participant pairs were a mix of friends, family and couples who had visited festivals in the UK, Finland and Denmark.
Findings
Four key areas that emerged through the analysis were the emotions of nostalgia and anticipation, and the processes of reliving emotions and bonding through memories.
Research limitations/implications
Future studies could take a longitudinal approach to see how memory sharing evolves and the impact of this on wellbeing. The authors also recommend undertaking similar studies in other cultural settings.
Practical implications
This study findings have implications for both post-festival marketing and for the further development of reminiscence therapy interventions.
Originality/value
The method provides a window into memory sharing that has been little used in previous studies. The narratives confirm the value in sharing memories and the positive impact this has on wellbeing. They also illustrate that this happens through positive forms of nostalgia that centre on gratitude and lead to hope and optimism. Anticipation, not emphasised in other studies, was also found to be important in wellbeing and was triggered through looking back at happier times.
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Archana Shrivastava and Ashish Shrivastava
This study aims to investigate the consumer behavior toward telemedicine services in India during the COVID-19 pandemic onset. With lockdown restrictions and safety concerns in…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to investigate the consumer behavior toward telemedicine services in India during the COVID-19 pandemic onset. With lockdown restrictions and safety concerns in visiting brick-and-mortar clinics or hospitals during the pandemic, Telemedicine had emerged as a potent alternative for seeking redressal to health issues. Based on theory and focus interviews with the telemedicine users, the researchers proposed a model to understand the intent and actual usage of telemedicine in India.
Design/methodology/approach
The cross-sectional study undertaken used a questionnaire designed on a seven-point Likert scale and administered to respondents with the objective of identifying the determinants of intent and actual usage of telemedicine services. Simple random sampling was used to collect primary data. The data was cleaned and finally a sample of 405 responses complete in all respects was considered for analysis. The questionnaire comprised of 34 items and following the recommendation of Hair et al. (2016), which says the minimum sample size in structural equation modeling should be ten times the number of indicator variables, a sample size of 405 was deemed adequate.
Findings
The research paper finds that performance expectancy, attitude, credibility and self-efficacy positively impact the intention of consumers to use telemedicine services. As the effort expectancy or risk perception toward telemedicine increases the intent and actual usage of telemedicine decreases. The intention to use telemedicine emerged as a strong predictor of the actual usage of telemedicine. Intent to use telemedicine was explained 81.4% by its predictors of performance expectancy, effort expectancy, attitude, risk, credibility and self-efficacy, and actual usage was explained 79.9% by its predictors. This study also reports that telemedicine was found to be popular among chronic as well as episodic patients though the preference was skewed in favor of the episodic patients. One of the advantages of telemedicine is its availability round the clock, and the study found that 8 a. m. to 12 noon time slot as the most preferred slot for seeking telemedicine services.
Practical implications
Chang (2004) opined that telemedicine can fulfill the needs of all stakeholders: citizens, health-care consumers, medical doctors and health-care professionals, policymakers, and so on. Considering the promise telemedicine holds, this realm must be studied and leveraged to the full potential. The study found that patients were using telemedicine even for their day-to-day aliments. This indicates a growing popularity of telemedicine and as such an opportunity for telemedicine companies to leverage it. In India, pharmaceutical companies cannot give commercial advertisements for medicines, and the same can only be sold through a registered medical practitioner’s prescription. As such there is total dependency on the medical practitioner for the sale of medicines. Telemedicine companies offer services of home delivering medicines clubbed with medical consultation thus giving them forward integration in their business models. Using telemedicine the patients had control over the timings of the services offered, and as such the waiting time to get a consultation and subsequent treatment was reduced considerably. Best medical advice from across the globe is available to the patient at less cost. Medical practitioners also stand to benefit as they can treat a variety of cases, collaborate among the medical fraternity and give consultation safely in case of fatal contagious diseases.
Originality/value
This study points to a definite growing popularity of telemedicine services not only in episodic patients but also chronic patients. Telemedicine with its unique advantages holds the promise to grow exponentially in the future and is a compelling health-care segment to focus on for delivering health-care solution to the geographically distant consumers.
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