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The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether corporate dividend policy changed during the financial crisis.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether corporate dividend policy changed during the financial crisis.
Design/methodology/approach
For this study, a life‐cycle model is used to predict the probability that a firm pays a dividend. The data sample for this research follows that of Fama and French and of DeAngelo et al., for the time period of 2006‐2009. The panel logistic regression analysis considers the firm cluster effects and the autoregressive correlation of the firm clusters.
Findings
This study shows evidence that the probability that a firm paid a dividend declined in 2008 and 2009, even after taking the firm's financial condition into account. Furthermore, the analysis also shows that dividend policy did shift during the financial crisis.
Originality/value
The results of this study show that dividend policy did shift during the financial crisis. The research provides evidence that firms placed additional emphasis on financial viability after the financial crisis.
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Naman S. Bajaj, Sujit S. Pardeshi, Abhishek D. Patange, Hrushikesh S. Khade and Kavidas Mate
Several national- and state-level studies have been predicting the course of the COVID-19 pandemic using supervised machine learning algorithms. However, the comparison of such…
Abstract
Purpose
Several national- and state-level studies have been predicting the course of the COVID-19 pandemic using supervised machine learning algorithms. However, the comparison of such models has not been discussed before. This is the first-ever research wherein the two leading models, susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) and logistic are compared. The purpose of this study is to observe their utility, at both the National and Municipal Corporation level in India.
Design/methodology/approach
The modified SIR and the logistic were deployed for analysis of the COVID-19 patients’ database of India and three Municipal Corporations, namely, Akola, Kalyan-Dombivli and Mira-Bhayander. The data for the study was collected from the official notifications for COVID-19 released by respective government websites.
Findings
This study provides evidence to show the superiority of the modified SIR over the logistic model. The models give accurate predictions for a period up to 14 days. The prediction accuracy of the models is limited due to change in government policies. This can be observed by the drastic increase in the COVID-19 cases after Unlock 1.0 in India. The models have proven that they can effectively predict for both National and Municipal Corporation level database.
Practical implications
The modified SIR model can be used to signify the practicality and effectiveness of the decisions taken by the authorities to contain the spread of coronavirus.
Originality/value
This study modifies the SIR model and also identifies and fulfills the need to find a more accurate prediction algorithm to help curb the pandemic.
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Le Wang, Liping Zou and Ji Wu
This paper aims to use artificial neural network (ANN) methods to predict stock price crashes in the Chinese equity market.
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to use artificial neural network (ANN) methods to predict stock price crashes in the Chinese equity market.
Design/methodology/approach
Three ANN models are developed and compared with the logistic regression model.
Findings
Results from this study conclude that the ANN approaches outperform the traditional logistic regression model, with fewer hidden layers in the ANN model having superior performance compared to the ANNs with multiple hidden layers. Results from the ANN approach also reveal that foreign institutional ownership, financial leverage, weekly average return and market-to-book ratio are the important variables when predicting stock price crashes, consistent with results from the traditional logistic model.
Originality/value
First, the ANN framework has been used in this study to forecast the stock price crashes and compared to the traditional logistic model in the world’s largest emerging market China. Second, the receiver operating characteristics curves and the area under the ROC curve have been used to evaluate the forecasting performance between the ANNs and the traditional approaches, in addition to some traditional performance evaluation methods.
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R. Dale Wilson and Harriette Bettis-Outland
Artificial neural network (ANN) models, part of the discipline of machine learning and artificial intelligence, are becoming more popular in the marketing literature and in…
Abstract
Purpose
Artificial neural network (ANN) models, part of the discipline of machine learning and artificial intelligence, are becoming more popular in the marketing literature and in marketing practice. This paper aims to provide a series of tests between ANN models and competing predictive models.
Design/methodology/approach
A total of 46 pairs of models were evaluated in an objective model-building environment. Either logistic regression or multiple regression models were developed and then were compared to ANN models using the same set of input variables. Three sets of B2B data were used to test the models. Emphasis also was placed on evaluating small samples.
Findings
ANN models tend to generate model predictions that are more accurate or the same as logistic regression models. However, when ANN models are compared to multiple regression models, the results are mixed. For small sample sizes, the modeling results are the same as for larger samples.
Research limitations/implications
Like all marketing research, this application is limited by the methods and the data used to conduct the research. The findings strongly suggest that, because of their predictive accuracy, ANN models will have an important role in the future of B2B marketing research and model-building applications.
Practical implications
ANN models should be carefully considered for potential use in marketing research and model-building applications by B2B academics and practitioners alike.
Originality/value
The research contributes to the B2B marketing literature by providing a more rigorous test on ANN models using B2B data than has been conducted before.
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Taegu Kim, Jungsik Hong and Hoonyoung Koo
The purpose of this study is to propose a systematic method for the diffusion of forecasting technology in the pre‐launch stage.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to propose a systematic method for the diffusion of forecasting technology in the pre‐launch stage.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors designed survey question items that are familiar to interviewees as well as algebraically transformable into the parameters of a logistic diffusion model. In addition, they developed a procedure that reduces inconsistency in interviewee responses, removes outliers, and verifies conformability, in order to reduce the error and yield robust estimation results.
Findings
The results show that the authors' method performed better in the empirical cases of digital media broadcasting and internet protocol television in terms of sum of squared error compared with an existing survey‐based method, a regression method, and the guessing‐by‐analogy method. Specifically, the authors' method can reduce the error by using the conformability and outlier tests, while the consistency factor contributes to determining the final estimate with personal estimates.
Research limitations/implications
The procedure proposed in this study is confined to the presented logistic model. Future research should aim to extend its application to other representative diffusion models such as the Bass model and the Gompertz model.
Practical implications
The authors' method provides a better quality of forecasting for innovative new products and services compared with the guessing‐by‐analogy method, and it contributes to managerial decisions such as those in production planning.
Originality/value
The authors introduce the concepts of conformability and consistency in order to reduce the error from personal biases and mistakes. Based on these concepts, they develop a procedure to yield robust estimation results with less error.
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This study discusses the influence of logistical immediacy on logistics service providers' (LSPs’) business. Specifically, its role in the face of the emerging business scenario…
Abstract
Purpose
This study discusses the influence of logistical immediacy on logistics service providers' (LSPs’) business. Specifically, its role in the face of the emerging business scenario (e-commerce, disruptive technologies, and new models of logistical services) is examined.
Design/methodology/approach
As logistical immediacy is a nascent topic, this study utilizes a systematic literature review focusing on academic articles from the last five years related to logistical outsourcing to understand the changes imposed by logistical immediacy on LSPs.
Findings
The impact of transformations arising from an increasingly digital virtual world (DVW) on LSPs is contextualized. A theoretical view of the factors affecting LSPs' shift towards more immediate operations is presented, and how logistical immediacy impacts LSPs is discussed. Finally, a research agenda is presented as the study's main contribution.
Research limitations/implications
Due to the timeframe chosen, the restriction to a single database (Scopus), the specific search terms used related to LSPs, and limiting the search parameters to operations management, some relevant work may have been overlooked.
Practical implications
The article help LSPs' and contracting companies' managers to understand the influence of the immediacy expected in logistics operations. Possible logistics services trends and how they may impact companies are discussed.
Originality/value
This is one of the first articles in the area of operations and supply chains that addresses the issue of logistical immediacy and its impact on LSPs.
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Yongyut Meepetchdee and Nilay Shah
This paper aims to propose a logistical network design framework with robustness and complexity considerations.
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to propose a logistical network design framework with robustness and complexity considerations.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper defines robustness, complexity, and normalised efficiency of a logistical network. A mathematical model is then constructed based on the conceptual framework and applied to a hypothetical case study with varying robustness requirements. The mathematical model is formulated as an Mixed‐Integer Linear Programming problem. Furthermore, the paper introduces a graph‐theoretic view of the logistical network and presents its topological properties such as average path length, clustering coefficient, and degree distribution.
Findings
The results show that logistical network configurations can be obtained with desirable robustness levels whilst minimising cost. The relationships of robustness versus normalised efficiency and complexity are also presented. The results show that relationships between logistical network topological properties and robustness exist, as in other real world natural and man‐made complex networks.
Practical implications
Logistical network design is one of the earliest strategic decisions in supply chain management that supply chain managers have to make. Practitioners and researchers typically focus on optimising efficiency and/or responsiveness of logistical networks. It is argued that logistical network designers should also consider robustness and complexity as they are important characteristics of logistical network functionality. The logistical network design frame work successfully incorporates robustness and complexity into design considerations.
Originality/value
This paper newly introduces other important performance measures, robustness and complexity, into the logistical network design objective. The design framework is highly relevant and adds value to logistical network designers and managers.
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The purpose of this paper is to discuss and assess the structural characteristics (conceptual utility) of the most popular classification and predictive techniques employed in…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to discuss and assess the structural characteristics (conceptual utility) of the most popular classification and predictive techniques employed in customer relationship management and customer scoring and to evaluate their classification and predictive precision.
Design/methodology/approach
A sample of customers' credit rating and socio‐demographic profiles are employed to evaluate the analytic and classification properties of discriminant analysis, binary logistic regression, artificial neural networks, C5 algorithm, and regression trees employing Chi‐squared Automatic Interaction Detector (CHAID).
Findings
With regards to interpretability and the conceptual utility of the parameters generated by the five techniques, logistic regression provides easily interpretable parameters through its logit. The logits can be interpreted in the same way as regression slopes. In addition, the logits can be converted to odds providing a common sense evaluation of the relative importance of each independent variable. Finally, the technique provides robust statistical tests to evaluate the model parameters. Finally, both CHAID and the C5 algorithm provide visual tools (regression tree) and semantic rules (rule set for classification) to facilitate the interpretation of the model parameters. These can be highly desirable properties when the researcher attempts to explain the conceptual and operational foundations of the model.
Originality/value
Most treatments of complex classification procedures have been undertaken idiosyncratically, that is, evaluating only one technique. This paper evaluates and compares the conceptual utility and predictive precision of five different classification techniques on a moderate sample size and provides clear guidelines in technique selection when undertaking customer scoring and classification.
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To provide a model for precise logistic controlling of one‐piece flow processes and for the description of the interactions between logistic performance measures. The developed…
Abstract
Purpose
To provide a model for precise logistic controlling of one‐piece flow processes and for the description of the interactions between logistic performance measures. The developed method can help manufacturing enterprises to control their production processes and therewith to exploit existing rationalization potentials in their production.
Design/methodology/approach
The Institute of Production System and Logistics adapted the logistic operating curve for schedule reliability and the logistic operating curve for mean throughput time to describe the behaviour of one‐piece flow processes. This model‐based method depicts the correlation between the delivery reliability and mean WIP level of single manufacturing systems and enables a goal‐oriented modelling as well as a controlling of single manufacturing processes.
Findings
The derivation, calculation, and fields of application of the logistic operating curves for one‐piece flow processes, that give a functional relationship between mean WIP, mean throughput time and schedule reliability, are presented in this paper. Moreover, the paper presents how the logistic performance measures can be adjusted to target values.
Originality/value
This paper offers practical help to manufacturing enterprises confronted with the task of evaluation and optimization of manufacturing processes within the framework of production controlling. Moreover, the developed method enables manufacturing enterprises to identify bottleneck work systems where action can be taken to optimize their schedule situation and thereby improve the delivery reliability of an entire manufacturing department.
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Serkan Akinci, Erdener Kaynak, Eda Atilgan and Şafak Aksoy
The objective of this article is to determine the usage and application of logistic regression analysis in the marketing literature by comparing the market positioning of…
Abstract
Purpose
The objective of this article is to determine the usage and application of logistic regression analysis in the marketing literature by comparing the market positioning of prominent marketing journals.
Design/methodology/approach
In order to identify the logistic regression applications, those journals having “marketing” term in their titles and indexed by the social citation index (SSCI) were included. As a result, the target population consisted of 12 journals fulfilling the criteria set. However, only eight of these that were accessible by the researchers were included in the study.
Findings
The classification of marketing articles from the chosen prominent marketing journals were made by journal title, article topic, target population, data collection method, and study location has mapped the position of logistic regression in the marketing literature.
Research limitations/implications
The sample journal coverage was limited with 12 marketing journals indexed in SSCI. In some of the journals utilized, the accessibility was limited by the electronic database year coverage. Due to this limitation, the researchers could not reach the exact number of articles using logistic regression.
Originality/value
The results of this study could highlight what is researched with logistic regression about marketing problems and may shed light on solving different problems on marketing topics for the future.
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