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Article
Publication date: 3 May 2013

Richard Hauser

The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether corporate dividend policy changed during the financial crisis.

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether corporate dividend policy changed during the financial crisis.

Design/methodology/approach

For this study, a life‐cycle model is used to predict the probability that a firm pays a dividend. The data sample for this research follows that of Fama and French and of DeAngelo et al., for the time period of 2006‐2009. The panel logistic regression analysis considers the firm cluster effects and the autoregressive correlation of the firm clusters.

Findings

This study shows evidence that the probability that a firm paid a dividend declined in 2008 and 2009, even after taking the firm's financial condition into account. Furthermore, the analysis also shows that dividend policy did shift during the financial crisis.

Originality/value

The results of this study show that dividend policy did shift during the financial crisis. The research provides evidence that firms placed additional emphasis on financial viability after the financial crisis.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 39 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

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Article
Publication date: 10 June 2021

Naman S. Bajaj, Sujit S. Pardeshi, Abhishek D. Patange, Hrushikesh S. Khade and Kavidas Mate

Several national- and state-level studies have been predicting the course of the COVID-19 pandemic using supervised machine learning algorithms. However, the comparison of…

Abstract

Purpose

Several national- and state-level studies have been predicting the course of the COVID-19 pandemic using supervised machine learning algorithms. However, the comparison of such models has not been discussed before. This is the first-ever research wherein the two leading models, susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) and logistic are compared. The purpose of this study is to observe their utility, at both the National and Municipal Corporation level in India.

Design/methodology/approach

The modified SIR and the logistic were deployed for analysis of the COVID-19 patients’ database of India and three Municipal Corporations, namely, Akola, Kalyan-Dombivli and Mira-Bhayander. The data for the study was collected from the official notifications for COVID-19 released by respective government websites.

Findings

This study provides evidence to show the superiority of the modified SIR over the logistic model. The models give accurate predictions for a period up to 14 days. The prediction accuracy of the models is limited due to change in government policies. This can be observed by the drastic increase in the COVID-19 cases after Unlock 1.0 in India. The models have proven that they can effectively predict for both National and Municipal Corporation level database.

Practical implications

The modified SIR model can be used to signify the practicality and effectiveness of the decisions taken by the authorities to contain the spread of coronavirus.

Originality/value

This study modifies the SIR model and also identifies and fulfills the need to find a more accurate prediction algorithm to help curb the pandemic.

Details

Information Discovery and Delivery, vol. 49 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2398-6247

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Article
Publication date: 5 November 2019

R. Dale Wilson and Harriette Bettis-Outland

Artificial neural network (ANN) models, part of the discipline of machine learning and artificial intelligence, are becoming more popular in the marketing literature and…

Abstract

Purpose

Artificial neural network (ANN) models, part of the discipline of machine learning and artificial intelligence, are becoming more popular in the marketing literature and in marketing practice. This paper aims to provide a series of tests between ANN models and competing predictive models.

Design/methodology/approach

A total of 46 pairs of models were evaluated in an objective model-building environment. Either logistic regression or multiple regression models were developed and then were compared to ANN models using the same set of input variables. Three sets of B2B data were used to test the models. Emphasis also was placed on evaluating small samples.

Findings

ANN models tend to generate model predictions that are more accurate or the same as logistic regression models. However, when ANN models are compared to multiple regression models, the results are mixed. For small sample sizes, the modeling results are the same as for larger samples.

Research limitations/implications

Like all marketing research, this application is limited by the methods and the data used to conduct the research. The findings strongly suggest that, because of their predictive accuracy, ANN models will have an important role in the future of B2B marketing research and model-building applications.

Practical implications

ANN models should be carefully considered for potential use in marketing research and model-building applications by B2B academics and practitioners alike.

Originality/value

The research contributes to the B2B marketing literature by providing a more rigorous test on ANN models using B2B data than has been conducted before.

Details

Journal of Business & Industrial Marketing, vol. 35 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0885-8624

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Article
Publication date: 21 June 2013

Taegu Kim, Jungsik Hong and Hoonyoung Koo

The purpose of this study is to propose a systematic method for the diffusion of forecasting technology in the pre‐launch stage.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to propose a systematic method for the diffusion of forecasting technology in the pre‐launch stage.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors designed survey question items that are familiar to interviewees as well as algebraically transformable into the parameters of a logistic diffusion model. In addition, they developed a procedure that reduces inconsistency in interviewee responses, removes outliers, and verifies conformability, in order to reduce the error and yield robust estimation results.

Findings

The results show that the authors' method performed better in the empirical cases of digital media broadcasting and internet protocol television in terms of sum of squared error compared with an existing survey‐based method, a regression method, and the guessing‐by‐analogy method. Specifically, the authors' method can reduce the error by using the conformability and outlier tests, while the consistency factor contributes to determining the final estimate with personal estimates.

Research limitations/implications

The procedure proposed in this study is confined to the presented logistic model. Future research should aim to extend its application to other representative diffusion models such as the Bass model and the Gompertz model.

Practical implications

The authors' method provides a better quality of forecasting for innovative new products and services compared with the guessing‐by‐analogy method, and it contributes to managerial decisions such as those in production planning.

Originality/value

The authors introduce the concepts of conformability and consistency in order to reduce the error from personal biases and mistakes. Based on these concepts, they develop a procedure to yield robust estimation results with less error.

Details

Industrial Management & Data Systems, vol. 113 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0263-5577

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Article
Publication date: 24 April 2007

Yongyut Meepetchdee and Nilay Shah

This paper aims to propose a logistical network design framework with robustness and complexity considerations.

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4345

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to propose a logistical network design framework with robustness and complexity considerations.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper defines robustness, complexity, and normalised efficiency of a logistical network. A mathematical model is then constructed based on the conceptual framework and applied to a hypothetical case study with varying robustness requirements. The mathematical model is formulated as an Mixed‐Integer Linear Programming problem. Furthermore, the paper introduces a graph‐theoretic view of the logistical network and presents its topological properties such as average path length, clustering coefficient, and degree distribution.

Findings

The results show that logistical network configurations can be obtained with desirable robustness levels whilst minimising cost. The relationships of robustness versus normalised efficiency and complexity are also presented. The results show that relationships between logistical network topological properties and robustness exist, as in other real world natural and man‐made complex networks.

Practical implications

Logistical network design is one of the earliest strategic decisions in supply chain management that supply chain managers have to make. Practitioners and researchers typically focus on optimising efficiency and/or responsiveness of logistical networks. It is argued that logistical network designers should also consider robustness and complexity as they are important characteristics of logistical network functionality. The logistical network design frame work successfully incorporates robustness and complexity into design considerations.

Originality/value

This paper newly introduces other important performance measures, robustness and complexity, into the logistical network design objective. The design framework is highly relevant and adds value to logistical network designers and managers.

Details

International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management, vol. 37 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0960-0035

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Article
Publication date: 1 April 2006

Peter Nyhuis and Markus Vogel

To provide a model for precise logistic controlling of one‐piece flow processes and for the description of the interactions between logistic performance measures. The…

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4072

Abstract

Purpose

To provide a model for precise logistic controlling of one‐piece flow processes and for the description of the interactions between logistic performance measures. The developed method can help manufacturing enterprises to control their production processes and therewith to exploit existing rationalization potentials in their production.

Design/methodology/approach

The Institute of Production System and Logistics adapted the logistic operating curve for schedule reliability and the logistic operating curve for mean throughput time to describe the behaviour of one‐piece flow processes. This model‐based method depicts the correlation between the delivery reliability and mean WIP level of single manufacturing systems and enables a goal‐oriented modelling as well as a controlling of single manufacturing processes.

Findings

The derivation, calculation, and fields of application of the logistic operating curves for one‐piece flow processes, that give a functional relationship between mean WIP, mean throughput time and schedule reliability, are presented in this paper. Moreover, the paper presents how the logistic performance measures can be adjusted to target values.

Originality/value

This paper offers practical help to manufacturing enterprises confronted with the task of evaluation and optimization of manufacturing processes within the framework of production controlling. Moreover, the developed method enables manufacturing enterprises to identify bottleneck work systems where action can be taken to optimize their schedule situation and thereby improve the delivery reliability of an entire manufacturing department.

Details

International Journal of Productivity and Performance Management, vol. 55 no. 3/4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1741-0401

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Article
Publication date: 5 June 2007

Serkan Akinci, Erdener Kaynak, Eda Atilgan and Şafak Aksoy

The objective of this article is to determine the usage and application of logistic regression analysis in the marketing literature by comparing the market positioning of…

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5188

Abstract

Purpose

The objective of this article is to determine the usage and application of logistic regression analysis in the marketing literature by comparing the market positioning of prominent marketing journals.

Design/methodology/approach

In order to identify the logistic regression applications, those journals having “marketing” term in their titles and indexed by the social citation index (SSCI) were included. As a result, the target population consisted of 12 journals fulfilling the criteria set. However, only eight of these that were accessible by the researchers were included in the study.

Findings

The classification of marketing articles from the chosen prominent marketing journals were made by journal title, article topic, target population, data collection method, and study location has mapped the position of logistic regression in the marketing literature.

Research limitations/implications

The sample journal coverage was limited with 12 marketing journals indexed in SSCI. In some of the journals utilized, the accessibility was limited by the electronic database year coverage. Due to this limitation, the researchers could not reach the exact number of articles using logistic regression.

Originality/value

The results of this study could highlight what is researched with logistic regression about marketing problems and may shed light on solving different problems on marketing topics for the future.

Details

European Journal of Marketing, vol. 41 no. 5/6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0309-0566

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Article
Publication date: 16 March 2010

Cataldo Zuccaro

The purpose of this paper is to discuss and assess the structural characteristics (conceptual utility) of the most popular classification and predictive techniques…

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1826

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to discuss and assess the structural characteristics (conceptual utility) of the most popular classification and predictive techniques employed in customer relationship management and customer scoring and to evaluate their classification and predictive precision.

Design/methodology/approach

A sample of customers' credit rating and socio‐demographic profiles are employed to evaluate the analytic and classification properties of discriminant analysis, binary logistic regression, artificial neural networks, C5 algorithm, and regression trees employing Chi‐squared Automatic Interaction Detector (CHAID).

Findings

With regards to interpretability and the conceptual utility of the parameters generated by the five techniques, logistic regression provides easily interpretable parameters through its logit. The logits can be interpreted in the same way as regression slopes. In addition, the logits can be converted to odds providing a common sense evaluation of the relative importance of each independent variable. Finally, the technique provides robust statistical tests to evaluate the model parameters. Finally, both CHAID and the C5 algorithm provide visual tools (regression tree) and semantic rules (rule set for classification) to facilitate the interpretation of the model parameters. These can be highly desirable properties when the researcher attempts to explain the conceptual and operational foundations of the model.

Originality/value

Most treatments of complex classification procedures have been undertaken idiosyncratically, that is, evaluating only one technique. This paper evaluates and compares the conceptual utility and predictive precision of five different classification techniques on a moderate sample size and provides clear guidelines in technique selection when undertaking customer scoring and classification.

Details

Journal of Modelling in Management, vol. 5 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-5664

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Article
Publication date: 21 March 2019

Fatemehalsadat Afsahhosseini

The theory of competitiveness of cities is based on Porter’s Diamond Theory. There is a relation between housing and urban competitiveness. The adequacy of land supply and…

Abstract

Purpose

The theory of competitiveness of cities is based on Porter’s Diamond Theory. There is a relation between housing and urban competitiveness. The adequacy of land supply and allocation of land for new housing development is integral. This paper aims to estimate the required number of housing units to secure housing needs in Tehran for the next four years in 1400 H.Sh (2021 A.D.). The research methodology is carried out using qualitative and quantitative approaches based on the given data. First, the population of Tehran in 1400 H.Sh was predicted using nonlinear quadratic polynomial, Gompertz and logistic models. Then, a Logistic model is proposed to estimate the number of housing units in Tehran. The calculations of residential units related to the population obtained from the Gompertz model equivalent to 663141 is suggested as a criterion for local authority to future decision making and planning for urban development.

Design/methodology/approach

The present research is an applied research in terms of the purpose a descriptive research in terms of the nature and methodology and a descriptive-analytical research in terms of attitude and approach toward the research problem (Hafeznia, 2013, 58, 63 and 71). To provide the required information for the analytical stage, a documentary method, related to the use of internal and external books and papers, has been applied. First, the population of Tehran in 1400 H.Sh is estimated using three nonlinear models of quadratic polynomials, Gompertz and logistic. Then, among them, the options that were more consistent with the estimation of the new comprehensive plan of Tehran (1386 H.Sh), which is the most important plan of this city, were chosen. After that, by using the logistic model, which is an appropriate expression of saturable phenomena and a suitable method of estimating the number of residential units in a city and based on the past trend, the future of housing is predicted, and the number of required residential units is determined.

Findings

Any city for competitiveness must seek the search and development of a set of unique strategies and practices that will shape its status from other cities. No single action for all cities is feasible. In fact, the most important challenge is to propose a unique value proposition and to formulate a strategy that distinguishes that city from the rest. Among the measures taken around the world is attention to infrastructure. From the point of view of competitiveness, different types of investment in infrastructure are important for different types of cities and in different stages of development of a city. Large cities need targeted investments in housing issues to overcome the segments associated with the poorer neighborhoods. Without investment in desirable housing, there will be holes in competitive advantage. In this paper, the number of residential units in Tehran was projected for 2021. The city’s population was originally estimated for 2021. In addition to the models used to predict and estimate necessary, it is necessary to consider the area, land use map, future development lines and […] city. To this end, the city can continue to meet the needs of residents’ diversification and the city’s needs. We cannot accept any predictions about the population and, consequently, the number of residential units. Providing predictions can provide the most predictive, or more prudent, and different scenarios that can emerge, which will lead to flexibility in the presentation of plans and programs. Among the models that were used to predict the population, the result obtained from second-order polynomial and Gompartz models was found to be appropriate for the estimation of the new comprehensive design of Tehran (2007). But the prediction of the population of the logistic model was beyond the prediction of the new comprehensive plan of Tehran (2007) and thus was not considered appropriate. The number of residential units required according to the predicted population of the second order polynomial models, Gompartz and the population considered in the new comprehensive plan of Tehran (2007). After the finalization of the proposed population, using the logistic model, the number of residential units needed in Tehran was projected for 2021. Since these three estimates are somewhat close to each other, it is suggested that Gompertz model calculations, equivalent to 663,141 residential units, are proposed, and according to that, local authorities are planning to supply land to achieve economic competitiveness (urban). As it is shown in the conceptual model of the paper in Figure 1, after determining the need for housing, it is necessary to ask whether the adequacy of the supply and allocation of land, as well as the importance of maintaining it for the development of housing by local authorities, is clear. Also, is there any suitable planning for that? Despite the severe shortage of ready-made land for the city of Tehran, a large volume of land is a large area owned by natural and legal persons, and, in particular, state-owned enterprises of semipublic and public institutions, which have been abandoned in cities for years without use and in the form of barren. According to municipal management laws, municipalities can receive land, taxes and fees that are included in the annual budget of the Tehran Municipality. According to the figure obtained from this study, which states that 663,141 residential units are needed for Tehran in 2021, large landowners in Tehran need to supply their land to the market. According to the Population and Housing Census in Tehran in 2011, there are 245,769 inhabited vacancies in Tehran; hence there are two scenarios for the provision of residential units in the city of Tehran in 2021, assuming that these units in the housing market require 417,372 units Another residence will be for Tehran, otherwise 663141 residential units will be needed for Tehran in 2021. Other possibl

Originality/value

Tehran is the largest city and the capital of Iran, and it is also the capital of the province Tehran. In the southern foothills of the Alborz Mountains within a longitude of 51 degrees and 2 minutes East to 51 degrees and 36 minutes East, with an approximate length of 50 kilometers and latitude 35 degrees and 34 minutes North to 35 degrees and 50 minutes North with an approximate width of 30 kilometers. The area of this city is 730 km2. This is one of the largest cities in West Asia, the 25th the most populous city, and the 27th greatest city to the world. The administrative structure of Iran has been concentrated in this city. The city has been divided into 22 zones, 134 areas (including Rey and Tajrish), and 370 districts (Wikipedia). The problem of housing in the city of Tehran has always been one of the important issues that less has been planned for it. The result is housing shortage, high housing prices and so on, due to the excessive expansion of the city, its population increase and so on.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 12 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

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Article
Publication date: 1 May 2006

Jake M. Kosior and Doug Strong

The purpose of this research is to describe how total cost concept with logistical based costing (LBC) is developed in detail and then used to build logistical models on…

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5055

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this research is to describe how total cost concept with logistical based costing (LBC) is developed in detail and then used to build logistical models on the Microsoft Excel platform that are integrated from the customer's factory to the supplier's door.

Design/methodology/approach

The models developed in this project are deterministic, event‐based algorithms to compare logistical conduits for bulk and containerized commodities. The demand chain approach is used to derive the pathways in reverse order from the customer to the supplier. The methodology is necessary to find all possible conduits from origin to destination, including points where product may cross over between various logistics systems. The approach is applied to the bulk and container system with disconnects (elevators, ports) serving as the demarcation points. The pathways from supplier to end‐user must be identified prior to application of classification and costing techniques. A goal of this research was to compare the per unit cost of two different logistical systems – bulk versus container – in two case studies. The first case study was for a miller in Northern China and the second was for a mill in Helsinki, Finland.

Findings

The spreadsheet models produced results that were within 3 percent of real world costs. Each demand chain was shown to be unique and required customized cost functions to properly configure algorithms.

Research limitations/implications

The paper suggests that, while a core algorithm may exist for all supply/demand chains, no one particular algorithm configuration suffices. Each supply/demand chain is unique, in terms of both costs and performance. The use of modular cost functions provides the customization necessary to address this issue.

Practical implications

This project verifies that successful implementation of a model is dependent on following a set of procedures that begins with a clear statement of what the model is to measure, along with what is to be included and what are the constraints imposed on the algorithm. Mapping the flow of the goods through logistical systems provides visibility as to where costs are incurred and how they are to be assigned to the supplier or customer. An improperly assigned variable in the early stages of a supply/demand chain reduces accuracy of subsequent calculations. LBC increases the precision of models by properly establishing the configuration of cost drivers for each stage of the supply/demand chain by avoiding the use of the cost averaging used in statistical analysis.

Originality/value

This paper provides a standardized approach for mapping, costing and building global supply/demand chain models. The ultimate customer, once thought of as the “end of the line”, now dictates the cost and performance requirements of logistical conduits. While this paper encapsulates methods for building total cost models from the customer's perspective, other configurations can be readily constructed to examine physical and performance characteristics.

Details

Journal of Enterprise Information Management, vol. 19 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1741-0398

Keywords

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