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Article
Publication date: 8 January 2024

Indranil Ghosh, Rabin K. Jana and Dinesh K. Sharma

Owing to highly volatile and chaotic external events, predicting future movements of cryptocurrencies is a challenging task. This paper advances a granular hybrid predictive…

Abstract

Purpose

Owing to highly volatile and chaotic external events, predicting future movements of cryptocurrencies is a challenging task. This paper advances a granular hybrid predictive modeling framework for predicting the future figures of Bitcoin (BTC), Litecoin (LTC), Ethereum (ETH), Stellar (XLM) and Tether (USDT) during normal and pandemic regimes.

Design/methodology/approach

Initially, the major temporal characteristics of the price series are examined. In the second stage, ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and maximal overlap discrete wavelet transformation (MODWT) are used to decompose the original time series into two distinct sets of granular subseries. In the third stage, long- and short-term memory network (LSTM) and extreme gradient boosting (XGB) are applied to the decomposed subseries to estimate the initial forecasts. Lastly, sequential quadratic programming (SQP) is used to fetch the forecast by combining the initial forecasts.

Findings

Rigorous performance assessment and the outcome of the Diebold-Mariano’s pairwise statistical test demonstrate the efficacy of the suggested predictive framework. The framework yields commendable predictive performance during the COVID-19 pandemic timeline explicitly as well. Future trends of BTC and ETH are found to be relatively easier to predict, while USDT is relatively difficult to predict.

Originality/value

The robustness of the proposed framework can be leveraged for practical trading and managing investment in crypto market. Empirical properties of the temporal dynamics of chosen cryptocurrencies provide deeper insights.

Details

China Finance Review International, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-1398

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 5 December 2023

Monika Chopra, Chhavi Mehta, Prerna Lal and Aman Srivastava

The purpose of this research is to primarily understand how crypto traders can use the Bitcoin as a hedge or safe haven asset to reduce their losses from crypto trading. The study…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this research is to primarily understand how crypto traders can use the Bitcoin as a hedge or safe haven asset to reduce their losses from crypto trading. The study also aims to provide insights to crypto investors (portfolio managers) who wish to maintain a crypto portfolio for the medium term and can use the Bitcoin to minimize their losses. The findings of this research can also be used by policymakers and regulators for accommodating the Bitcoin as a medium of exchange, considering its safe haven nature.

Design/methodology/approach

This study applies the cross-quantilogram (CQ) approach introduced by Han et al. (2016) to examine the safe-haven property of the Bitcoin against the other selected crypto assets. This method is robust for estimating bivariate volatility spillover between two markets given unusual distributions and extreme observations. The CQ method is capable of calculating the magnitude of the shock from one market to another under different quantiles. Additionally, this method is suitable for fat-tailed distributions. Finally, the method allows anticipating long lags to evaluate the strength of the relationship between two variables in terms of durations and directions simultaneously.

Findings

The Bitcoin acts as a weak safe haven asset for a majority of new crypto assets for the entire study period. These results hold even during greed and fear sentiments in the crypto market. The Bitcoin has the ability to protect crypto assets from sharp downturns in the crypto market and hence gives crypto traders some respite when trading in a highly volatile asset class.

Originality/value

This study is the first attempt to show how the Bitcoin can act as a true matriarch/patriarch for crypto assets and protect them during market turmoil. This study presents a clear and concise representation of this relationship via heatmaps constructed from CQ analysis, depicting the quantile dependence association between the Bitcoin and other crypto assets. The uniqueness of this study also lies in the fact that it assesses the protective properties of the Bitcoin not only for the entire sample period but also specifically during periods of greed and fear in the crypto market.

Details

China Finance Review International, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-1398

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 18 April 2024

John Aliu, Ayodeji Emmanuel Oke, Isaac I. Akinwumi, Rislan Abdulazeez Kanya and Lydia Uyi Ehiosun

This study aimed to investigate and analyze the level of awareness and adoption of distributed ledger technologies (DLTs) within the Nigerian construction industry. The focus was…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aimed to investigate and analyze the level of awareness and adoption of distributed ledger technologies (DLTs) within the Nigerian construction industry. The focus was on addressing the current state of DLT utilization, identifying challenges and opportunities and proposing strategies to enhance the integration of DLTs into the construction processes and practices of Nigerian professionals and organizations.

Design/methodology/approach

The research was underpinned by a robust theoretical and conceptual framework, drawing from established theories of technology adoption. A comprehensive literature review guided the identification of various DLT types. This informed the development of a well-structured questionnaire, which was then distributed to Nigerian construction professionals. The collected data underwent analysis using percentages, frequencies, mean scores, the Kruskal–Wallis H-test and the Shapiro–Wilk test.

Findings

A significant finding of this study reveals a generally low awareness and implementation of DLT among construction professionals in Nigeria. These findings emphasize the urgent need for comprehensive strategies to bridge the gap between awareness and adoption of DLT within the Nigerian construction industry.

Practical implications

Industry associations, regulatory bodies and educational institutions can collaborate to develop specialized programs aimed at familiarizing professionals with the benefits and applications of DLTs. Additionally, technology providers and policymakers can leverage these findings to design user-friendly interfaces and guidelines for seamless DLT integration into construction processes.

Originality/value

This study contributes to the existing body of knowledge by providing a comprehensive assessment of the awareness and adoption of DLTs specifically within the Nigerian construction industry. While the global recognition of DLT’s potential in construction is acknowledged, this research delves into a regional context, shedding light on the specific opportunities within Nigeria. Furthermore, the study’s identification of a gap between awareness and implementation highlights a critical area for future exploration and development in the field of construction technology adoption.

Details

Technological Sustainability, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2754-1312

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 27 February 2024

Shefali Arora, Ruchi Mittal, Avinash K. Shrivastava and Shivani Bali

Deep learning (DL) is on the rise because it can make predictions and judgments based on data that is unseen. Blockchain technologies are being combined with DL frameworks in…

Abstract

Purpose

Deep learning (DL) is on the rise because it can make predictions and judgments based on data that is unseen. Blockchain technologies are being combined with DL frameworks in various industries to provide a safe and effective infrastructure. The review comprises literature that lists the most recent techniques used in the aforementioned application sectors. We examine the current research trends across several fields and evaluate the literature in terms of its advantages and disadvantages.

Design/methodology/approach

The integration of blockchain and DL has been explored in several application domains for the past five years (2018–2023). Our research is guided by five research questions, and based on these questions, we concentrate on key application domains such as the usage of Internet of Things (IoT) in several applications, healthcare and cryptocurrency price prediction. We have analyzed the main challenges and possibilities concerning blockchain technologies. We have discussed the methodologies used in the pertinent publications in these areas and contrasted the research trends during the previous five years. Additionally, we provide a comparison of the widely used blockchain frameworks that are used to create blockchain-based DL frameworks.

Findings

By responding to five research objectives, the study highlights and assesses the effectiveness of already published works using blockchain and DL. Our findings indicate that IoT applications, such as their use in smart cities and cars, healthcare and cryptocurrency, are the key areas of research. The primary focus of current research is the enhancement of existing systems, with data analysis, storage and sharing via decentralized systems being the main motivation for this integration. Amongst the various frameworks employed, Ethereum and Hyperledger are popular among researchers in the domain of IoT and healthcare, whereas Bitcoin is popular for research on cryptocurrency.

Originality/value

There is a lack of literature that summarizes the state-of-the-art methods incorporating blockchain and DL in popular domains such as healthcare, IoT and cryptocurrency price prediction. We analyze the existing research done in the past five years (2018–2023) to review the issues and emerging trends.

Details

International Journal of Quality & Reliability Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0265-671X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 29 April 2024

Faouzi Ghallabi, Khemaies Bougatef and Othman Mnari

This study aims to identify calendar anomalies that can affect stock returns and asymmetric volatility. Thus, the objective of this study is twofold: on the one hand, it examines…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to identify calendar anomalies that can affect stock returns and asymmetric volatility. Thus, the objective of this study is twofold: on the one hand, it examines the impact of calendar anomalies on the returns of both conventional and Islamic indices in Indonesia, and on the other hand, it analyzes the impact of these anomalies on return volatility and whether this impact differs between the two indices.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors apply the GJR-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model to daily data of the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) and the Jakarta Islamic Index for the period ranging from October 6, 2000 to March 4, 2022.

Findings

The authors provide evidence that the turn-of-the-month (TOM) effect is present in both conventional and Islamic indices, whereas the January effect is present only for the conventional index and the Monday effect is present only for the Islamic index. The month of Ramadan exhibits a positive effect for the Islamic index and a negative effect for the conventional index. Conversely, the crisis effect seems to be the same for the two indices. Overall, the results suggest that the impact of market anomalies on returns and volatility differs significantly between conventional and Islamic indices.

Practical implications

This study provides useful information for understanding the characteristics of the Indonesian stock market and can help investors to make their choice between Islamic and conventional equities. Given the presence of some calendar anomalies in the Indonesia stock market, investors could obtain abnormal returns by optimizing an investment strategy based on seasonal return patterns. Regarding the day-of-the-week effect, it is found that Friday’s mean returns are the highest among the weekdays for both indices which implies that investors in the Indonesian stock market should trade more on Fridays. Similarly, the TOM effect is significantly positive for both indices, suggesting that for investors are called to concentrate their transactions from the last day of the month to the fourth day of the following month. The January effect is positive and statistically significant only for the conventional index (JCI) which implies that it is more beneficial for investors to invest only in conventional assets. In contrast, it seems that it is more advantageous for investors to invest only in Islamic assets during Ramadan. In addition, the findings reveal that the two indices exhibit lower returns and higher volatility, which implies that it is recommended for investors to find other assets that can serve as a safe refuge during turbulent periods. Overall, the existence of these calendar anomalies implies that policymakers are called to implement the required measures to increase market efficiency.

Originality/value

The existing literature on calendar anomalies is abundant, but it is mostly focused on conventional stocks and has not been sufficiently extended to address the presence of these anomalies in Shariah-compliant stocks. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, no study to date has examined the presence of calendar anomalies and asymmetric volatility in both Islamic and conventional stock indices in Indonesia.

Details

Journal of Islamic Accounting and Business Research, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1759-0817

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 11 April 2024

Everton Anger Cavalheiro, Kelmara Mendes Vieira and Pascal Silas Thue

This study probes the psychological interplay between investor sentiment and the returns of cryptocurrencies Bitcoin and Ethereum. Employing the Granger causality test, the…

Abstract

Purpose

This study probes the psychological interplay between investor sentiment and the returns of cryptocurrencies Bitcoin and Ethereum. Employing the Granger causality test, the authors aim to gauge how extensively the Fear and Greed Index (FGI) can predict cryptocurrency return movements, exploring the intricate bond between investor emotions and market behavior.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors used the Granger causality test to achieve research objectives. Going beyond conventional linear analysis, the authors applied Smooth Quantile Regression, scrutinizing weekly data from July 2022 to June 2023 for Bitcoin and Ethereum. The study focus was to determine if the FGI, an indicator of investor sentiment, predicts shifts in cryptocurrency returns.

Findings

The study findings underscore the profound psychological sway within cryptocurrency markets. The FGI notably predicts the returns of Bitcoin and Ethereum, underscoring the lasting connection between investor emotions and market behavior. An intriguing feedback loop between the FGI and cryptocurrency returns was identified, accentuating emotions' persistent role in shaping market dynamics. While associations between sentiment and returns were observed at specific lag periods, the nonlinear Granger causality test didn't statistically support nonlinear causality. This suggests linear interactions predominantly govern variable relationships. Cointegration tests highlighted a stable, enduring link between the returns of Bitcoin, Ethereum and the FGI over the long term.

Practical implications

Despite valuable insights, it's crucial to acknowledge our nonlinear analysis's sensitivity to methodological choices. Specifics of time series data and the chosen time frame may have influenced outcomes. Additionally, direct exploration of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors was absent, signaling opportunities for future research.

Originality/value

This study enriches theoretical understanding by illuminating causal dynamics between investor sentiment and cryptocurrency returns. Its significance lies in spotlighting the pivotal role of investor sentiment in shaping cryptocurrency market behavior. It emphasizes the importance of considering this factor when navigating investment decisions in a highly volatile, dynamic market environment.

Details

Review of Behavioral Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1940-5979

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 19 March 2024

Yousra Trichilli, Hana Kharrat and Mouna Boujelbène Abbes

This paper assesses the co-movement between Pax gold and six fiat currencies. It also investigates the optimal time-varying hedge ratios in order to examine the properties of Pax…

12

Abstract

Purpose

This paper assesses the co-movement between Pax gold and six fiat currencies. It also investigates the optimal time-varying hedge ratios in order to examine the properties of Pax gold as a diversifier and hedge asset.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper examines the volatility spillover between Pax gold and fiat currencies using the framework of wavelet analysis, BEKK-GARCH models and Range DCC-GARCH. Moreover, this paper proposes to use the covariance and variance structure obtained from the new range DCC-GARCH framework to estimate the time-varying optimal hedge ratios, the optimal weighs and the hedging effectiveness.

Findings

Wavelet coherence method reveals that, at low frequency, large zone of co-movements appears for the pairs Pax gold/EUR, Pax gold/JPY and Pax gold/RUB. Further, the BEKK results show unidirectional (bidirectional) transmission effects between Pax gold and EUR, GBP, JPY and CNY (INR, RUB) fiat currencies. Moreover, the Range DCC results show that the Pax gold and the fiat currency returns are weakly correlated with low coefficients close to zero. Thus, Pax gold seems to serve as a safe haven asset against the systematic risk of fiat currency markets. In addition, the results of optimal weights show that rational investor should invest more in Pax gold and less in fiat currencies. Concerning the hedge ratios results, the findings reveal that the INR (JPY) fiat currency appears to be the most expensive (cheapest) hedge for the Pax-gold market. However, the JPY’s fiat currency appears to be the cheapest one. As for hedging effectiveness results, the authors found that hedging strategies including fiat currencies–Pax gold pairs are most likely to sharply decrease the portfolio’s risk.

Practical implications

A comprehensive understanding of the relationship between Pax Gold and fiat currencies is crucial for refining portfolio strategies involving cryptocurrencies. This research underscores the significance of grasping volatility transmissions between these currencies, providing valuable insights to guide investors in their decision-making processes. Moreover, it encourages further exploration into the interdependencies of digital currencies. Additionally, this study sheds light on effective contagion risk management, particularly during crises such as Covid-19 and the Russia–Ukraine conflict. It underscores the role of Pax Gold as a safe-haven asset and offers practical guidance for adjusting portfolios across various economic conditions. Ultimately, this research advances our comprehension of Pax Gold’s risk-return profile, positioning it as a potential hedge during periods of uncertainty, thereby contributing to the evolving literature on cryptocurrencies.

Originality/value

This study’s primary value lies in its pioneering empirical examination of the time-varying correlations and scale dependence between Pax Gold and fiat currencies. It goes beyond by determining optimal time-varying hedge ratios through the innovative Range-DCC-GARCH model, originally introduced by Molnár (2016) and distinguished by its incorporation of both low and high prices. Significantly, this analysis unfolds within the unique context of the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russian–Ukrainian conflict, marking a novel contribution to the field.

Details

EuroMed Journal of Business, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1450-2194

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 23 February 2024

Eminda Ishan De Silva, Gayithri Niluka Kuruppu and Sandun Dassanayake

The non-fungible token (NFT) market had undergone dramatic growth and a sudden decline during 2021–2022. The market experienced a surge in prices in late 2021 and early 2022, with…

Abstract

Purpose

The non-fungible token (NFT) market had undergone dramatic growth and a sudden decline during 2021–2022. The market experienced a surge in prices in late 2021 and early 2022, with NFTs being sold at inflated prices. Despite this, by April 2022, the market underwent a correction, and the prices of NFTs returned to more reasonable levels. This can be a result of imitating the actions or judgments of a larger group, which is not systematically proven yet. Therefore, this study systematically investigates the applicability of herding behavior in the NFT market.

Design/methodology/approach

This research employs cross-sectional absolute deviation (CSAD) of returns and ordinary least squares (OLS) to test herding behavior with moving time windows of 10, 20 and 30 days based on the sales data collected from public interface of OpenSea between July 1, 2021 and June 30, 2022. Additionally, NFT-related keyword usage analysis is done for the detected herding periods.

Findings

As per the results of the data analyzed, herding behavior was evidenced using 10-, 20- and 30-day time windows from July 1, 2021 to June 30, 2022because of media movement. The findings revealed that this behavior was present and aligned with the overall behavior of the market.

Originality/value

This study introduces CSAD to examine herding behavior patterns within the NFT market. Complementing this method, keyword count-based analysis is employed to identify the underlying causes of herding behavior. Through this comprehensive approach, this study not only uncovers the roots of herding behavior but also offers an assessment of the time windows during which it occurs, considering the plausible socioeconomic contexts that influence these trends.

Details

China Finance Review International, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-1398

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 15 January 2024

Susovon Jana and Tarak Nath Sahu

This study is designed to examine the dynamic interrelationships between four cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin and Cardano) and the Indian equity market…

Abstract

Purpose

This study is designed to examine the dynamic interrelationships between four cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin and Cardano) and the Indian equity market. Additionally, the study seeks to investigate the potential safe haven, hedge and diversification uses of these digital currencies within the Indian equity market.

Design/methodology/approach

This study employs the wavelet approach to examine the time-varying volatility of the studied assets and the lead-lag relationship between stocks and cryptocurrencies. The authors execute the entire analysis using daily data from 1st October 2017 to 30th September 2023.

Findings

The result of the study shows that financial distress due to the pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine have a negative effect on the Indian equities and cryptocurrency markets, escalating their price volatility. Also, the connectedness between the returns of stock and digital currency exhibits a strong positive relationship during periods of financial distress. Additionally, cryptocurrencies serve as a tool of diversification or hedging in the Indian equities markets during normal financial circumstances, but they do not serve as a diversifier or safe haven during periods of financial turmoil.

Originality/value

This study contributes to understanding the relationship between the Indian equity market and four cryptocurrencies using wavelet techniques in the time and frequency domains, considering both normal and crisis times. This can offer valuable insights into the potential of cryptocurrencies inside the Indian equities markets, mainly with respect to varying financial conditions and investment horizons.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 15 December 2023

Umar Nawaz Kayani

This study aims to give a glimpse of the existing blockchain applications across industries and add to a complete knowledge of the blockchain’s properties.

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to give a glimpse of the existing blockchain applications across industries and add to a complete knowledge of the blockchain’s properties.

Design/methodology/approach

Systematic literature review is used as the research strategy for this investigation and other aspects of the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses framework have been incorporated to create a scholarly publications evaluation of the blockchain-based application in the financial arena and its future. The research looks at 86 studies published between 2018 and 2022.

Findings

There has been a steady but noticeable increase in the study of blockchain’s potential in many application domains over the past few of years. This rising tendency illustrates the newness and potential of blockchain technology, as well as the increasing attention from academics. According to the findings, blockchain is an appropriate solution for processing transactions using cryptocurrencies; nevertheless, it still has significant technical issues and limits that require to be exploring and solving before it can be considered a viable option. It is therefore, necessary to have a high level of reliability for payments and confidentiality, in addition to maintaining the anonymity of nodes, to stop assaults and efforts to disrupt transactions in the blockchain.

Practical implications

This study has several important theoretical and practical implications. First, it adds to the body of knowledge on blockchain and Fintech, focusing on the transaction side. While much blockchain research has focused on how the technology may affect strategic choices, this study has shed light on its potential from the perspective of financial reporting. Second, by highlighting the importance of the demand for the prompt identification of losses, this work adds to the body of knowledge on the factors that influence transaction frauds involving paper money. Additionally, by establishing the link between transparency and virtual transactions, the author backs up the asymmetric responses of investors to different investment possibilities. It looks at the evolution of financial technology (Fintech) and shows how it can be used to take the advantage of unique opportunities.

Originality/value

The study is different and novel from the previously published literature on this topic mainly because of its comprehensiveness, as it revolves around all industrial and commercial areas. The three main lines of research have been outlined, namely, classifying the many blockchain-based innovations that will alter the financial landscape in many industries; identifying whether these industries are a good fit for blockchain’s wealth creation potential; and directing researchers by outlining prospective study pathways.

Details

Journal of Science and Technology Policy Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2053-4620

Keywords

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