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Article
Publication date: 5 February 2024

Karlo Marques Junior

This paper seeks to explore the sensitivity of these parameters and their impact on fiscal policy outcomes. We use the existing literature to establish possible ranges for each…

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Abstract

Purpose

This paper seeks to explore the sensitivity of these parameters and their impact on fiscal policy outcomes. We use the existing literature to establish possible ranges for each parameter, and we examine how changes within these ranges can alter the outcomes of fiscal policy. In this way, we aim to highlight the importance of these parameters in the formulation and evaluation of fiscal policy.

Design/methodology/approach

The role of fiscal policy, its effects and multipliers continues to be a subject of intense debate in macroeconomics. Despite adopting a New Keynesian approach within a macroeconomic model, the reactions of macroeconomic variables to fiscal shocks can vary across different contexts and theoretical frameworks. This paper aims to investigate these diverse reactions by conducting a sensitivity analysis of parameters. Specifically, the study examines how key variables respond to fiscal shocks under different parameter settings. By analyzing the behavioral dynamics of these variables, this research contributes to the ongoing discussion on fiscal policy. The findings offer valuable insights to enrich the understanding of the complex relationship between fiscal shocks and macroeconomic outcomes, thus facilitating informed policy debates.

Findings

This paper aims to investigate key elements of New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models. The focus is on the calibration of parameters and their impact on macroeconomic variables, such as output and inflation. The study also examines how different parameter settings affect the response of monetary policy to fiscal measures. In conclusion, this study has relied on theoretical exploration and a comprehensive review of existing literature. The parameters and their relationships have been analyzed within a robust theoretical framework, offering valuable insights for further research on how these factors influence model forecasts and inform policy recommendations derived from New Keynesian DSGE models. Moving forward, it is recommended that future work includes empirical analyses to test the reliability and effectiveness of parameter calibrations in real-world conditions. This will contribute to enhancing the accuracy and relevance of DSGE models for economic policy decision-making.

Originality/value

This study is motivated by the aim to provide a deeper understanding of the roles macroeconomic model parameters play concerning responses to expansionary fiscal policies and the subsequent reactions of monetary authorities. Comprehensive reviews that encompass this breadth of relationships within a single text are rare in the literature, making this work a valuable contribution to stimulating discussions on macroeconomic policies.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 9 January 2024

Sébastien Charles

The aim of this article is to assess the macroeconomic consequences of some specific aspects of financialization (i.e. share buy-back) using a hybrid post-Keynesian model of…

Abstract

Purpose

The aim of this article is to assess the macroeconomic consequences of some specific aspects of financialization (i.e. share buy-back) using a hybrid post-Keynesian model of growth and distribution based on Kaldorian and Kaleckian characteristics.

Design/methodology/approach

The study follows a post-Keynesian approach and deals with financialization issues by implementing several numerical simulations.

Findings

The numerical simulations reveal the negative real impacts of massive share repurchases on the rate of accumulation because they immediately siphon off revenues directly intended for investment projects. Moreover, the negative effect of share buy-backs is reinforced especially when firms' investment decisions are more sensitive to a variation in retained earnings. Next, this macro-model also reproduces several well-known figures of the Kaleckian tradition and the paradox of costs.

Research limitations/implications

The present article can be considered as a starting point for further theoretical extensions and requires empirical validation.

Originality/value

The Kaldor-Kalecki macro-model could be useful for policymakers who are interested in containing some of the negative excesses of financialization.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 20 June 2023

Françoise Okah Efogo and Boniface Ngah Epo

This paper appraises the effects of monetary policy on trade in value-added (TiVA) using a panel of 38 developing countries spanning the period 1990 to 2019. Specifically, the…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper appraises the effects of monetary policy on trade in value-added (TiVA) using a panel of 38 developing countries spanning the period 1990 to 2019. Specifically, the authors subsequently summon the theory of trade in intermediate products within the New Keynesian framework for open economies that comprises price rigidity to verify this relationship and thereon control for robustness by correcting for endogeneity and unbalanced panel effect.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors mobilize the within estimator corrected for cross sectional dependence as well as the two-stage-least squares fixed effect estimator which corrects for endogeneity. For robustness, the authors also use the Hausman–Taylor estimator to control for endogeneity and random effects in annualized data and the least squares dummy variable corrected estimator.

Findings

Results suggest that the monetary policy instruments such as inflationary gaps and anticipatory inflationary outcomes significantly affect TiVA in developing countries only in the short term with no long-term effect. In addition to contributing to the scanty empirical literature, the authors provide relevant insights on monetary policy tools that can be mobilized in fashioning a global value chain penetration and upgrading strategies.

Originality/value

The authors convoke the theory of trade in intermediate products casted into the New Keynesian framework comprising price rigidity to verify the relationship between TiVA and monetary policy (b) verify for robustness by correcting for endogeneity and unbalanced panel effect.

Details

Journal of International Logistics and Trade, vol. 21 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1738-2122

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 19 October 2023

Haytem Troug and Ernil Sabaj

Despite being a flexible tool that can address several macroeconomic issues, Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models have been rarely used to analyse the interaction…

Abstract

Purpose

Despite being a flexible tool that can address several macroeconomic issues, Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models have been rarely used to analyse the interaction between monetary and fiscal policy until the post-financial crisis, leaving a gap in the analysis of how government consumption affects the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. This motivates this paper to analyse how government consumption affects the dynamics of a small open economy, once the former is included in a non-separable form to the utility function. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this issue has not been addressed by the literature, and the authors aim to do so in this paper.

Design/methodology/approach

A standard New Keynesian model for a small open economy is used to allow for the presence of non-separable government consumption in the utility function. The model is supported by panel regressions.

Findings

The inclusion of Government consumption dampens the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. The degree of openness dampens the crowding out effect of fiscal policy to monetary policy, as the exchange rate channel empowers it. Empirical estimates for 35 OECD countries support the theoretical findings of the model.

Originality/value

The effect of government consumption on the transmission mechanism of MP has not been addressed in the literature. This paper contributes to the literature by addressing this issue.

Highlights:

  • • The inclusion of Government consumption dampens the transmission mechanism of monetary policy.

  • • The degree of openness alleviates the crowding out effect of fiscal policy to monetary policy, as the exchange rate channel empowers it.

  • • Empirical estimates for 35 OECD countries support the theoretical findings of the model.

• The inclusion of Government consumption dampens the transmission mechanism of monetary policy.

• The degree of openness alleviates the crowding out effect of fiscal policy to monetary policy, as the exchange rate channel empowers it.

• Empirical estimates for 35 OECD countries support the theoretical findings of the model.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 51 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Content available
Book part
Publication date: 4 September 2023

Stephen E. Spear and Warren Young

Abstract

Details

Overlapping Generations: Methods, Models and Morphology
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83753-052-6

Abstract

Details

Overlapping Generations: Methods, Models and Morphology
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83753-052-6

Book part
Publication date: 19 January 2024

Alexandre Chirat, Basile Clerc and Richard P. F. Holt

In 1979, Galbraith wrote a manuscript titled “The Social Consequences of Inflation and Unemployment and Their Remedies.” The manuscript was found in the John Kenneth Galbraith…

Abstract

In 1979, Galbraith wrote a manuscript titled “The Social Consequences of Inflation and Unemployment and Their Remedies.” The manuscript was found in the John Kenneth Galbraith Personal Papers at the John F. Kennedy Library. The reasons for Galbraith to write the article might appear at first glance to be purely contextual. At the macroeconomic level, the United States was experiencing stagflation, a situation unseen since 1945, resulting in double-digit inflation rates and high unemployment. A policy debate was going on about the Phillips curve and whether there is a trade-off between inflation and unemployment. Milton Friedman challenged the Keynesian analyses of the Phillips curve in the mid-1960s (Friedman, 1977). Galbraith’s 16-page draft manuscript provides us an incisive summary of Galbraith’s views about the causes of stagflation and what can be done about it. He provides us with an alternative to the neoclassical synthesis of Samuelson and Solow and the neoliberal thinking of Milton Friedman and F.A. Hayek.

Details

Research in the History of Economic Thought and Methodology: Including a Symposium on John Kenneth Galbraith: Economic Structures and Policies for the Twenty-first Century
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80455-931-4

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 19 May 2023

Dhyani Mehta and M. Mallikarjun

This study aims to examine the impact of fiscal deficit, exchange rate and trade openness on current account deficit (CAD). The study tried to empirically investigate the ‘twin…

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Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to examine the impact of fiscal deficit, exchange rate and trade openness on current account deficit (CAD). The study tried to empirically investigate the ‘twin deficits hypothesis’ and ‘compensation hypothesis’ in the Indian context.

Design/methodology/approach

Autoregressive distributed lagARDL) bound test approach was used by taking annual time series data from 1978 to 2021. The estimates confirm a significant long-run and short-run relationship between dependent variables, i.e. CAD and independent variables such as the fiscal deficit, exchange rate and trade openness.

Findings

The results show that positive shocks of all explanatory variables significantly affect the CAD. CAD and fiscal deficit are significantly associated, as the coefficient of fiscal deficit is positive and significant. The study also found that exchange rate and trade openness significantly affect the CAD. The coefficients of exchange rate and trade openness are positive and significant. The findings show that an increase in CADs results from liberal trade policies that help domestic industries grow their trade and expansionary fiscal policy, leading to a higher fiscal deficit. The negative and significant error correction term suggests that short-run disequilibrium converges to long-run equilibrium at a speed of 19.2%. The findings validate the ‘twin deficits hypothesis’ and ‘compensation hypothesis’ in the Indian context.

Practical implications

It can be inferred from the study that liberal policy to promote economic growth and trade openness should be designed and promoted judiciously. An excessive liberalised approach may impact other macroeconomic variables such as current account balances. Integrating the domestic market with global markets poses a big challenge for countries like India that aspire to penetrate global markets. Furthermore, the Indian policy makers should rigorously work and promote the policies such as Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) as reduction in fiscal deficits, trade imbalances will also be reduced.

Originality/value

This study contributes to the existing literature on ‘twin deficit’ and trade openness by giving new evidence on the trilemma between designing sustainable fiscal policy by spending wisely without imperilling the country's global presence and CAD.

Article
Publication date: 31 July 2023

Eduardo Loría and Raúl Antonio Tirado Cossío

The labor market responds in a differentiated manner during recessions and expansions, and it is of vital importance to know the magnitude asymmetries. The purpose of this paper…

Abstract

Purpose

The labor market responds in a differentiated manner during recessions and expansions, and it is of vital importance to know the magnitude asymmetries. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effects of the disinflationary monetary policy (2005Q1–2022Q4) through the sacrifice rate measured in terms of unemployment and rate of critical labor conditions (RCLC) with nonlinear auto regressive distributed lag (NLARDL; Shin et al., 2014), which allows to efficiently estimate asymmetric effects in short and long terms in the presence of variables of different integration orders.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors estimate an asymmetric accelerationist Phillips curve, augmented with labor precariousness for Mexico (2005Q1–2022Q4) following the NLARDL approach (Shin et al., 2014).

Findings

The authors prove that the increase in the unemployment gap has greater disinflationary effects than the RCLC in both the short and the long term; the expansionary phases of the business cycle, which reduce UGap, do not have inflationary effects either in the short or in the long run, but improvements in the labor market do, when RCLC is reduced; raising RCLC appears to have been the companies’ main survival strategy since 2015; and these asymmetries can generate a low unemployment trap with high and growing precariousness, with huge dynamic costs for well-being, economic growth, inequality and poverty.

Social implications

As labor precariousness grows, the implications are several both in the short and long run. In the short run, the most notorious example of the effects on workers has to do with unstable and insecure situations, that disrupt all their life planning options, and health issues. Bohle et al. (2004) found in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries that casual employees had less desirable and predictable working hours, greater work–life conflict and more associated health complaints than people with permanent jobs.

Originality/value

The approach includes the labor precariousness variable, which describes a new phenomenon in the labor market. Nowadays, workers are facing a new threat since firms are employing a new labor cost reduction strategy in which they do not lay off workers but rather paying them less, working them more hours, or reducing benefits. The asymmetries between the effects of precarity and unemployment can generate a poverty trap in the long run. This problem is, once again, of great relevance in the context of global high inflation.

Details

International Journal of Development Issues, vol. 22 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1446-8956

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 4 April 2024

Hugo Iasco-Pereira and Rafael Duregger

Our study aims to evaluate the impact of infrastructure and public investment on private investment in machinery and equipment in Brazil from 1947 to 2017. The contribution of our…

Abstract

Purpose

Our study aims to evaluate the impact of infrastructure and public investment on private investment in machinery and equipment in Brazil from 1947 to 2017. The contribution of our article to the existing literature lies in providing a more comprehensive understanding of the presence or absence of the crowding effect in the Brazilian economy by leveraging an extensive historical database. Our central argument posits that the recent decline in private capital accumulation over the last few decades can be attributed to shifts in economic policies – moving from a developmentalist orientation to nondevelopmental guidance since the early 1990s, which is reflected in the diminished levels of public investment and infrastructure since the 1980s.

Design/methodology/approach

We conducted a series of econometric regressions utilizing the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model as our chosen econometric methodology.

Findings

Employing two different variables to measure public investment and infrastructure, our results – robust across various specifications – have substantiated the existence of a crowding-in effect in Brazil over the examined period. Thus, we have empirical evidence indicating that the state has influenced private capital accumulation in the Brazilian economy over the past decades.

Originality/value

Our article contributes to the existing literature by offering a more comprehensive understanding of the crowding effect in the Brazilian economy, utilizing an extensive historical database.

Details

EconomiA, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1517-7580

Keywords

1 – 10 of 255