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Article
Publication date: 9 February 2024

Alexandre Esteves and Pedro Piccoli

The purpose of this study is to investigate the influence of firm-specific investor sentiment on Brazilian companies’ accrual-based earnings management between 2010 and 2018. The…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to investigate the influence of firm-specific investor sentiment on Brazilian companies’ accrual-based earnings management between 2010 and 2018. The paper aims to bring deeper insight into the relationship between the investor expectations and managers’ decision-making in an emerging market.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors use the quantitative approach and apply a multiple linear regression model to test the relationship among the abnormal accruals, the firm-specific investor sentiment index and the control variables. The final sample includes data from 175 companies, between 2010 and 2018.

Findings

These results reveal a negative association between firm-specific investor sentiment and accrual-based earnings management, which could mean that the risk propensity of managers to manipulate earnings increases when they face known losses in the capital market.

Research limitations/implications

The research findings provide a valuable understanding of how emerging capital market expectations can influence managerial decisions, such as accrual-based earnings management. The geographical area of study was limited to only Brazil.

Originality/value

Previous studies on developed markets show that market-wide investor sentiment positively influences accrual-based earnings management. However, the present study shows that the firm-specific investor sentiment index has a significant and negative relationship with Brazilian companies’ earnings manipulation, whereas market sentiment indicates contradictory relationship in previous studies in the country.

Propósito

El propósito de este estudio es investigar la influencia del sentimiento de los inversionistas a nivel de empresa en la manipulación contable de las empresas brasileñas entre 2010 y 2018. El documento pretende aportar una visión más profunda sobre la relación entre las expectativas de los inversores y la toma de decisiones de los gestores en un mercado emergente.

Diseño/metodologia/enfoque

usamos el enfoque cuantitativo y aplicamos un modelo de regresión lineal múltiple para probar la relación entre las acumulaciones anormales, el índice de sentimiento de los inversores a nivel de empresa y las variables de control. La muestra final incluye datos de 175 empresas, entre 2010 y 2018.

Hallazgos

Los resultados revelan una asociación negativa entre el sentimiento de los inversores a nivel de empresa y la manipulación contable basada em acumulaciones, lo que podría significar que la propensión al riesgo de los administradores a manipular las ganancias aumenta cuando enfrentan pérdidas conocidas en el mercado de capitales.

Limitaciones/implicaciones de la investigación

los resultados de la investigación proporcionan una valiosa comprensión de cómo las expectativas de los mercados de capitales emergentes pueden influir en las decisiones de gestión, como la manipulación contable basada en acumulaciones. El área geográfica de estudio se limitó únicamente a Brasil y, en consecuencia, los hallazgos y conclusiones del estudio tuvieron sus límites.

Originalidad/valor

estudios anteriores sobre mercados desarrollados muestran que el sentimiento de los inversores a nivel de mercado influye positivamente en la manipulación contable. Sin embargo, el presente estudio muestra que el índice de sentimiento de los inversores a nivel de empresa tiene una relación significativa y negativa con la manipulación de las ganancias de las empresas brasileñas, mientras que el sentimiento del mercado indica una relación contradictoria en estudios anteriores en el país.

Article
Publication date: 7 November 2023

Te-Kuan Lee and Askar Koshoev

The primary objective of this research is to provide evidence that there are two distinct layers of investor sentiments that can affect asset valuation models. The first is…

Abstract

Purpose

The primary objective of this research is to provide evidence that there are two distinct layers of investor sentiments that can affect asset valuation models. The first is general market-wide sentiments, while the second is biased approaches toward specific assets.

Design/methodology/approach

To achieve the goal, the authors conducted a multi-step analysis of stock returns and constructed complex sentiment indices that reflect the optimism or pessimism of stock market participants. The authors used panel regression with fixed effects and a sample of the US stock market to improve the explanatory power of the three-factor models.

Findings

The analysis showed that both market-level and stock-level sentiments have significant contributions, although they are not equal. The impact of stock-level sentiments is more profound than market-level sentiments, suggesting that neglecting the stock-level sentiment proxies in asset valuation models may lead to severe deficiencies.

Originality/value

In contrast to previous studies, the authors propose that investor sentiments should be measured using a multi-level factor approach rather than a single-factor approach. The authors identified two distinct levels of investor sentiment: general market-wide sentiments and individual stock-specific sentiments.

Details

Review of Behavioral Finance, vol. 16 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1940-5979

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 15 January 2024

Qiang Bu and Jeffrey Forrest

The authors compare sentiment level with sentiment shock from different angles to determine which measure better captures the relationship between sentiment and stock returns.

Abstract

Purpose

The authors compare sentiment level with sentiment shock from different angles to determine which measure better captures the relationship between sentiment and stock returns.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper examines the relationship between investor sentiment and contemporaneous stock returns. It also proposes a model of systems science to explain the empirical findings.

Findings

The authors find that sentiment shock has a higher explanatory power on stock returns than sentiment itself, and sentiment shock beta exhibits a much higher statistical significance than sentiment beta. Compared with sentiment level, sentiment shock has a more robust linkage to the market factors and the sentiment shock is more responsive to stock returns.

Originality/value

This is the first study to compare sentiment level and sentiment shock. It concludes that sentiment shock is a better indicator of the relationship between investor sentiment and contemporary stock returns.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 50 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 10 January 2023

Mehdi Mili, Asma Yahiya Al Amoodi and Hana Bawazir

This study aims to investigate the asymmetric impact of daily announcements regarding COVID-19 on investor sentiment in the stock market.

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to investigate the asymmetric impact of daily announcements regarding COVID-19 on investor sentiment in the stock market.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses a Non-Linear Autoregressive Distribution Lag (NARDL) model that relies on positive and negative partial sum decompositions of the Coronavirus indicators. Five investor sentiments had been used and the analysis is conducted on the full sample period from 24th February 2020 to 25th March 2021.

Findings

The results show that new cases have a greater impact on investor sentiment compared to daily announcements of new deaths related to COVID-19. In addition to revealing a significant impact of new COVID-19 new cases and new death announcements on a daily basis on investor sentiment over the short- and long-term, this paper also highlights the nonlinearity and asymmetry of this relationship in the short and long run. Investors' sentiments are more affected by negative news regarding Covid 19 than positive news.

Originality/value

Financial markets have been severely affected by COVID-19 pandemic. This study is the first to measure the extent of reaction of investors to positive and negative announcements of COVID-19. Interestingly, this study examines the asymmetric effect of daily announcements on new cases and new deaths by COVID-19 on investor sentiments and derive many implications for portfolio managers.

Details

Review of Behavioral Finance, vol. 16 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1940-5979

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 8 August 2023

Syed Faisal Shah

This paper has analysed the impact of cultural dimensions, investor sentiment and uncertainty on bank stock returns. Also, the study examined the influences of the interaction…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper has analysed the impact of cultural dimensions, investor sentiment and uncertainty on bank stock returns. Also, the study examined the influences of the interaction between cultural dimensions and individual (private) sentiment (investor sentiment).

Design/methodology/approach

To meet the study's objectives, a two-step generalised method of moments estimator was applied to the study sample, which included 105 banks in the nine Middle East and North African region countries between 2010 and 2020.

Findings

The cultural dimensions of individualism and masculinity were found to have a positive and significant effect on banks' buy and hold stock return (BUH). At the same time, power distance and uncertainty avoidance were discovered to have negative effects. Besides, the findings revealed that the interactions of power distance, individual sentiment and uncertainty avoidance had positive and significant relationships with banks' BUH. However, individualism, individual sentiment and masculinity had inverse relationships with banks' BUH. Furthermore, the findings revealed that investor sentiment positively influenced banks' BUH. Finally, uncertainty influenced banks' BUH stock returns positively.

Research limitations/implications

Important implications for participants in the financial sector and governments may be learnt from this study's conclusions. Due to cultural biases, this study's findings suggested that investors overreact in the stock market.

Originality/value

Additionally, this research comprises one of the few studies that have overviewed the link between classical and behavioural finance in MENA countries with distinctive cultural characteristics.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 51 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 15 January 2021

Ka Shing Cheung and Joshua Lee

Real estate is an asset that is traded in highly segmented, illiquid and informationally inefficient local markets. A short sale in real estate is almost infeasible and therefore…

Abstract

Purpose

Real estate is an asset that is traded in highly segmented, illiquid and informationally inefficient local markets. A short sale in real estate is almost infeasible and therefore impedes informed rational arbitrageurs to trade against mispricing. Thus, real estate returns are prone to sentiment-driven behaviours. Will the impacts on asset returns be identical for different types of sentiment?

Design/methodology/approach

This study argues that not all sentiment effects are created equal. Using the bounds test of the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models, this paper examines how occupier sentiment versus investor sentiment contributes to the short-run and long-run dynamics of commercial real estate returns in Australia.

Findings

The empirical evidence suggests that investor sentiment and occupier sentiment influence return asymmetrically after macroeconomic conditions are controlled for.

Practical implications

The sectoral analysis further reveals that sector-specific sentiment plays a significant role in explaining commercial real estate returns. Furthermore, notable improvement is found in producing more accurate prediction in returns, given that measures of occupier and investor sentiment are appropriately specified in the forecast.

Originality/value

This study is novel in the sense that it acknowledges the impacts of occupiers' and investors' sentiment may be fundamentally different. The unique innovation and contribution of this study to behavioural finance literature are based on a new dataset from the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors which includes a survey-based measure of investor sentiment and occupier sentiment.

Article
Publication date: 8 January 2020

Chaiyuth Padungsaksawasdi

Considering the unique data of the gold investor sentiment index in Thailand, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the bivariate dynamic relationship between the gold…

Abstract

Purpose

Considering the unique data of the gold investor sentiment index in Thailand, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the bivariate dynamic relationship between the gold investor sentiment index and stock market return, as well as that between the gold investor sentiment index and stock market volatility, using the panel vector autoregression (PVAR) methodology. The author presents and discusses the findings both for the full sample and at the industry level. The results support prior literature that stocks in different industries do not react similarly to investor sentiment.

Design/methodology/approach

The PVAR methodology with the GMM estimation is found to be superior to other static panel methodologies due to considering both unobservable time-invariant and time-variant factors, as well as being suitable for relatively short time periods. The panel data approach improves the statistical power of the tests and ensures more reliable results.

Findings

In general, a negative and unidirectional association from gold investor sentiment to stock returns is observed. However, the gold sentiment-stock realized volatility relationship is negative and bidirectional, and there exists a greater impact of a stock’s realized volatility on gold investor sentiment. Importantly, evidence at the industry level is stronger than that at the aggregate level in both return and volatility cases, confirming the role of gold investor sentiment in the Thai stock market. The capital flow effect and the contagion effect explain the gold sentiment-stock return relationship and the gold sentiment-stock volatility relationship, respectively.

Research limitations/implications

The gold price sentiment index can be used as a factor for stock return predictability and stock realized volatility predictability in the Thai equity market.

Practical implications

Practitioners and traders can employ the gold price sentiment index to make a profit in the stock market in Thailand.

Originality/value

This is the first paper to use panel data to investigate the relationships between the gold investor sentiment and stock returns and between the gold investor sentiment and stocks’ realized volatility, respectively.

Details

International Journal of Managerial Finance, vol. 16 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1743-9132

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 18 September 2019

Mouna Abdelhedi and Mouna Boujelbène-Abbes

The purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate the volatility spillover between the Chinese stock market, investor’s sentiment and oil market, specifically during the…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate the volatility spillover between the Chinese stock market, investor’s sentiment and oil market, specifically during the 2014‒2016 turmoil period.

Design/methodology/approach

This study used the daily and monthly China market price index, oil-price index and composite index of Chinese investor’s sentiment. The authors first use the DCC GARCH model in order to study the correlation between variables. Second, the authors use a continuous wavelet decomposition technique so as to capture both time- and frequency-varying features of co-movement variables. Finally, the authors examine the spillover effects by estimating the BEKK GARCH model.

Findings

The wavelet coherency results indicate a substantial co-movement between oil and Chinese stock markets in the periods of high volatility. BEKK GARCH model outcomes confirm this relation and report the noteworthy bidirectional transmission of volatility between oil market shocks and the Chinese investor’s sentiment, chiefly in the crisis period. These results support the behavioral theory of contagion and highlight that the Chinese investor’s sentiment is a channel through which shocks are transmitted between the oil and Chinese equity markets. Thus, these results are important for Chinese authorities that should monitor the investor’s sentiment to better control the interaction between financial and real markets.

Originality/value

This study makes three major contributions to the existing literature. First, it pays attention to the recent 2015 Chinese stock market bumble. Second, it has gone some way toward enhancing our understanding of the volatility spillover between the investor’s sentiment, investor’s sentiment variation, oil prices and stock market returns (variables of interest) during oil and stock market crises. Third, it uses the continuous wavelet decomposition technique since it reveals the linkage between variables of interest at different time horizons.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 15 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 4 January 2022

Song Cao, Ziran Li, Kees G. Koedijk and Xiang Gao

While the classic futures pricing tool works well for capital markets that are less affected by sentiment, it needs further modification in China's case as retail investors…

Abstract

Purpose

While the classic futures pricing tool works well for capital markets that are less affected by sentiment, it needs further modification in China's case as retail investors constitute a large portion of the Chinese stock market participants. Their expectations of the rate of return are prone to emotional swings. This paper, therefore, explores the role of investor sentiment in explaining futures basis changes via the channel of implied discount rates.

Design/methodology/approach

Using Chinese equity market data from 2010 to 2019, the authors augment the cost-of-carry model for pricing stock index futures by incorporating the investor sentiment factor. This design allows us to estimate the basis in a better way that reflects the relationship between the underlying index price and its futures price.

Findings

The authors find strong evidence that the measure of Chinese investor sentiment drives the abnormal fluctuations in the basis of China's stock index futures. Moreover, this driving force turns out to be much less prominent for large-cap stocks, liquid contracting frequencies, regulatory loosening periods and mature markets, further verifying the sentiment argument for basis mispricing.

Originality/value

This study contributes to the literature by relying on investor sentiment measures to explain the persistent discount anomaly of index futures basis in China. This finding is of great importance for Chinese investors with the intention to implement arbitrage, hedging and speculation strategies.

Details

China Finance Review International, vol. 12 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-1398

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 6 September 2021

Saeid Aliahmadi

The main purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of investor sentiment on accounting conservatism in listed companies in the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE).

Abstract

Purpose

The main purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of investor sentiment on accounting conservatism in listed companies in the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE).

Design/methodology/approach

In this paper, two models of Ball and Shivakumar (2006) and Basu (1997) have been used for measuring conditional conservatism in accounting. To measure investor sentiment, the author uses the Baker and Wurgler (2006, 2007) index. The research sample consists of 1,820 observations and 182 firms listed on TSE over a ten-year period between 2011 and 2020. This study uses panel data and multivariate regression analysis to test it hypotheses.

Findings

Consistent with this hypothesis that accounting conservatism will increase with investor sentiment, the results showed that Iranian firms recognize economic losses and bad news in a more timely manner during high sentiment periods than during low sentiment periods. This implies that Iranian managers recognize economic losses and bad news in earnings in a more timely manner during periods of high investor sentiment.

Practical implications

This finding provides significant evidence for investors and financial reporting standard-setters in Iran because by removing accounting conservatism from the conceptual framework, managers are not able to present conservative financial reports, and this can intensify the negative impact of investors sentiment in the Iranian capital market. Managers of Iranian companies can reduce information asymmetry and increase capital market efficiency by accelerating the disclosure of bad news. Thus, managers can strategically recognize losses and prevent investors from making emotional decisions that reduce their wealth.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to empirically examine the impact of investor sentiment on accounting conservatism in a developing market called Iran. This study contributes to the corporate disclosure literature. Also, the result of this study contributes to standard-setters of accounting standards to improve the mandatory disclosure literature on more conservative accounting earnings.

Details

Journal of Financial Reporting and Accounting, vol. 21 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1985-2517

Keywords

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