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1 – 10 of over 2000GDP growth, money growth and inflation are essential to an economy's macroeconomic stability and have a direct impact on the policymaking process. Sri Lanka is currently concerned…
Abstract
Purpose
GDP growth, money growth and inflation are essential to an economy's macroeconomic stability and have a direct impact on the policymaking process. Sri Lanka is currently concerned about high inflation. Inflation is a monetary phenomenon. Inflation has been caused by monetary policy in several nations. According to the economic theories of Karl Marx, Irving Fisher and Milton Friedman, a continuous increase in the money supply causes inflation. This paper aims to investigate the relationship between Sri Lanka's GDP growth, money growth and inflation.
Design/methodology/approach
An econometric model and the economic theories of Fisher and Friedman are used to figure out how money supply, inflation and economic growth are linked. Between 1990 and 2021, data were gathered from secondary sources.
Findings
The increase in the money supply is found to cause inflation. Inflation has negative effects on both short- and long-term economic growth. Long-term, the increase in money supply has a negative effect on economic growth.
Research limitations/implications
According to research, the money supply and inflation are inextricably linked, and the money supply has a direct impact on economic growth. As a result, the government should have an appropriate monetary policy and proposals to control inflation levels and stimulate economic growth.
Originality/value
The paper adds to the existing literature in two ways. First, it fills in the lack of studies in Sri Lanka, where there are no papers on this important relationship, especially with a modern econometric study. Second, it tries to shed light on the asymmetric shocks (both positive and negative shocks and changes) between the three variables, which was not done in previous studies.
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Malihe Ashena, Hamid Laal Khezri and Ghazal Shahpari
This paper aims to deepen the understanding of the relationship between global economic uncertainty and price volatility, specifically focusing on commodity, industrial materials…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to deepen the understanding of the relationship between global economic uncertainty and price volatility, specifically focusing on commodity, industrial materials and energy price indices as proxies for global inflation, analyzing data from 1997 to 2020.
Design/methodology/approach
The dynamic conditional correlation generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model is used to study the dynamic relationship between variables over a while.
Findings
The results demonstrated a positive relationship between commodity prices and the global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU). Except for 1999–2000 and 2006–2008, the results of the energy price index model were very similar to those of the commodity price index. A predominant positive relationship is observed focusing on the connection between GEPU and the industrial material price index. The results of the pairwise Granger causality reveal a unidirectional relationship between the GEPU – the Global Commodity Price Index – and the GEPU – the Global Industrial Material Price Index. However, there is bidirectional causality between the GEPU – the Global Energy Price Index. In sum, changes in price indices can be driven by GEPU as a political factor indicating unfavorable economic conditions.
Originality/value
This paper provides a deeper understanding of the role of global uncertainty in the global inflation process. It fills the gap in the literature by empirically investigating the dynamic movements of global uncertainty and the three most important groups of prices.
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Trang Nguyen, Taha Chaiechi, Lynne Eagle and David Low
Growth enterprise market (GEM) in Hong Kong is acknowledged as one of the world’s most successful examples of small and medium enterprise (SME) stock market. The purpose of this…
Abstract
Purpose
Growth enterprise market (GEM) in Hong Kong is acknowledged as one of the world’s most successful examples of small and medium enterprise (SME) stock market. The purpose of this paper is to examine the evolving efficiency and dual long memory in the GEM. This paper also explores the joint impacts of thin trading, structural breaks and inflation on the dual long memory.
Design/methodology/approach
State-space GARCH-M model, Kalman filter estimation, factor-adjustment techniques and fractionally integrated models: ARFIMA–FIGARCH, ARFIMA–FIAPARCH and ARFIMA–HYGARCH are adopted for the empirical analysis.
Findings
The results indicate that the GEM is still weak-form inefficient but shows a tendency towards efficiency over time except during the global financial crisis. There also exists a stationary long-memory property in the market return and volatility; however, these long-memory properties weaken in magnitude and/or statistical significance when the joint impacts of the three aforementioned factors were taken into account.
Research limitations/implications
A forecasts of the hedging model that capture dual long memory could provide investors further insights into risk management of investments in the GEM.
Practical implications
The findings of this study are relevant to market authorities in improving the GEM market efficiency and investors in modelling hedging strategies for the GEM.
Originality/value
This study is the first to investigate the evolving efficiency and dual long memory in an SME stock market, and the joint impacts of thin trading, structural breaks and inflation on the dual long memory.
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The purpose of this study paper is to focus on developing novel ways to monitor an economy in real time during the COVID-19 pandemic. A fully automated framework is proposed for…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study paper is to focus on developing novel ways to monitor an economy in real time during the COVID-19 pandemic. A fully automated framework is proposed for collecting and analyzing online food prices in Poland. This is important, as the COVID-19 outbreak in Europe in 2020 has led many governments to impose lockdowns that have prevented manual price data collection from food outlets. The study primarily addresses whether food price inflation can be accurately measured during the pandemic using only a laptop and Internet connection, without needing to rely on official statistics.
Design/methodology/approach
The big data approach was adopted to track food price inflation in Poland. Using the web-scraping technique, daily price information about individual food and non-alcoholic beverage products sold in online stores was gathered.
Findings
Based on raw online data, reliable estimates of monthly and annual food inflation were provided about 30 days before final official indexes were published.
Originality/value
This is the first paper to focus on measuring inflation in real time during the COVID-19 pandemic. Monthly and annual food price inflation are estimated in real time and updated daily, thereby improving previous forecasting solutions with weekly or monthly indicators. Using daily frequency price data deepens understanding of price developments and enables more timely detection of inflation trends, both of which are useful for policymakers and market participants. This study also provides a review of crucial issues regarding inflation that emerged during the COVID-19 pandemic.
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The purpose is to market a reinterpretation of Brazilian economic history highlighting the importance of non-tradable goods to understand major historical developments such as the…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose is to market a reinterpretation of Brazilian economic history highlighting the importance of non-tradable goods to understand major historical developments such as the lack of industrialization in the mining boom; the rise and contribution of industries to development in the early 20th century; indexation as hyperinflation in the late 20th century; growth and cycles in the early 21st century.
Design/methodology/approach
Section 2 introduces analytical perspectives on the relationship between non-tradables, transport costs and external shocks. Section 3 presents a historical overview of the gold and coffee cycles in the Brazilian economy, which highlights the crucial role played by transport costs in the genesis of industrialization. Thus, in a more precise way, industrialization was not an import substitution process but the substitution of non-tradables by the domestic tradable manufactures.
Findings
Section 4 shows that Brazilian statistical records and historiography disregard this characterization and, to that extent, underestimate economic growth in the primary export phase (1872–1920) and overestimate growth rates in the industrialization period (1920–1940). Section 5 shifts to the end of the 20th century to analyze the relationship between non-tradables, indexation and hyperinflation. Section 6 concludes with a brief discussion of the role played by the terms of trade and non-tradables in the unfolding of the 2014 economic crisis.
Originality/value
Distance from international markets and a continental geographic size made transport costs in Brazil historically prohibitive: the relevance of non-tradables in the Brazilian economic history. While the theme is not new, it seldom received proper attention in the historiography.
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Faharuddin Faharuddin, M. Yamin, Andy Mulyana and Y. Yunita
Using cross-sectional household survey data, this paper aims to determine the impact of food price increases on poverty in Indonesia.
Abstract
Purpose
Using cross-sectional household survey data, this paper aims to determine the impact of food price increases on poverty in Indonesia.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper uses the quadratic almost ideal demand system applied to the 2013 Indonesian household survey data. The impact of food price increase on household welfare is calculated using a welfare measure, compensating variation.
Findings
Three food groups with the most outstanding price impact on poverty, rice, vegetables and fish, were studied. The 20% increase in the price of each food group causes an increase in the headcount ratio by 1.360 points (rice), 0.737 points (vegetables) and 0.636 points (fish). Maintaining food price stability for these food groups is very important because the more the price increases, the more the impact on poverty. Food price policies in rural areas are also more critical than in urban areas because the impact of food price increases in rural areas is higher.
Research limitations/implications
This paper does not consider the positive impact of rising food prices on food-producing households.
Practical implications
Implementing appropriate poverty alleviation policies through food policies for main food groups and social protection.
Social implications
Promoting rural development policies and agricultural growth.
Originality/value
This paper contributes to the existing literature by providing empirical results regarding the impact of domestic food prices increase on poverty in Indonesia.
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Sara Candidori, Serena Graziosi, Paola Russo, Kasra Osouli, Francesco De Gaetano, Alberto Antonio Zanini and Maria Laura Costantino
The purpose of this study is to describe the design and validation of a three-dimensional (3D)-printed phantom of a uterus to support the development of uterine balloon tamponade…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to describe the design and validation of a three-dimensional (3D)-printed phantom of a uterus to support the development of uterine balloon tamponade devices conceived to stop post-partum haemorrhages (PPHs).
Design/methodology/approach
The phantom 3D model is generated by analysing the main requirements for validating uterine balloon tamponade devices. A modular approach is implemented to guarantee that the phantom allows testing these devices under multiple working conditions. Once finalised the design, the phantom effectiveness is validated experimentally.
Findings
The modular phantom allows performing the required measurements for testing the performance of devices designed to stop PPH.
Social implications
PPH is the leading obstetric cause of maternal death worldwide, mainly in low- and middle-income countries. The proposed phantom could speed up and optimise the design and validation of devices for PPH treatment, reducing the maternal mortality ratio.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the 3D-printed phantom represents the first example of a modular, flexible and transparent uterus model. It can be used to validate and perform usability tests of medical devices.
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