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Article
Publication date: 16 August 2021

Le-Vinh-Lam Doan and Adipandang Yudono

This paper aims to bring together research on housing market area, submarket and household migration into a systems approach that helps us gain a better understanding of the…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to bring together research on housing market area, submarket and household migration into a systems approach that helps us gain a better understanding of the structure and dynamics of a housing market and identify housing problems for a large metropolitan area.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper uses a geographic information system (GIS)-based method with simple quantitative techniques, including spatial analysis, location analysis, house price clustering and cross-tabulation. The analysis is based on migration data from the 2011 Census, house price data from the Land Registry in 2011 for Greater Manchester at the ward level and the output areas level.

Findings

The results show that different submarkets and housing market areas had different patterns of spatial migration and connections with other areas. Through a systematic analysis of migration and house price in combination, it also found a close connection between destination submarkets and the ages of migrants and identified specific problematic patterns for a large metropolitan area.

Research limitations/implications

The interactions between the owner-occupied sector and the social and private rented sectors are arguably an important omission from the analysis. Also, it is acknowledged that clustering ward units based on price differentials is subject to distortions in terms of specification, size and shape. Moreover, the use of the large samples may result in very small p-values, leading to the problem of the rejection of the predefined hypothesis.

Practical implications

A systematic analysis of migration and house price in combination may be used to gain a better understanding of the housing market dynamics and identify housing problems systematically for a large metropolitan. It may help to identify low-demand areas, high-demand areas and assist planners with decisions in allocating suitable land for new housing constructions.

Social implications

The GIS-based method introduced in the paper could be considered as an effective approach to provide a better basis for determining policy interventions and public investment designed to allocate land resources effectively and improve transport systems to change existing problematic migration patterns.

Originality/value

This paper fills a gap in the international literature in relation to adopting a systems approach that analyses migration and house price data sets in combination to systematically explore migration patterns and linkages and identify housing problems for a large metropolitan area. This systems approach can be applied in any metropolitan area where migration and house price data are available.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 15 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 21 March 2019

Emmanuel Kofi Gavu and Anthony Owusu-Ansah

The purpose of this paper is to empirically test for submarket existence based on an understanding of the residential rental housing market in Ghana.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to empirically test for submarket existence based on an understanding of the residential rental housing market in Ghana.

Design/methodology/approach

Based on extant literature and market observations, the authors provide key concepts and an overview of the residential rental market dynamics in Ghana. Reseachers appreciate that submarkets may exist in the Ghanaian rental market but have ignored the empirical testing for submarket existence due to data asymmetries. Based on real estate experts and stakeholder consultations, a priori delineation of submarkets are constructed based on spatial, structural and a nested approach. Submarket existence is tested using the Kruskal–Wallis H test and Hedonic modelling techniques.

Findings

By using fieldwork data from Accra rental market, the analysis provides credence to the conceptualisation of submarkets and how to empirically test for same. It is argued that researchers should use alternative methods to compare results to make far-reaching conclusions.

Research limitations/implications

Examining the hypothesis that differential rental values exists for submarkets has implications for policy decisions to target submarket constructs differently to improve market maturity.

Practical implications

The research provides stakeholder investors in the rental space an understanding of market dynamics for profit maximisation, and end-users to maximise utility in deciding where to live – and as such households could benefit from making informed investment decisions on housing.

Originality/value

This research is one of the first attempts to empirically identify and test for submarkets existence in Ghana’s residential rental housing market.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 12 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 2 January 2023

Le-Vinh-Lam Doan and Alasdair Rae

With access to the large-scale search data from Rightmove plc, the paper firstly indicated the possibility of using user-generated data from online property portals to predict…

Abstract

Purpose

With access to the large-scale search data from Rightmove plc, the paper firstly indicated the possibility of using user-generated data from online property portals to predict housing market activities and secondly embraced a GIS approach to explore what people search for housing and what they chose and investigated the issue of mismatch between search patterns and revealed patterns. Based on the analysis, the paper contributes a visual GIS-based approach which may help planners and designers to make more informed decisions related to new housing supply, particularly where to build, what to build and how many to build.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper used the 2013 housing search data from Rightmove and the 2013 price data from Land Registry with transactions made after the search period and embraced a GIS approach to explore the potential housing demand patterns and the mismatch between searches and sales. In the analysis, the paper employed the K-means approach to group prices into five levels and used GIS software to draw maps based on these price levels. The paper also employed a simple analysis of linear regression based on the coefficient of determination to investigate the relationship between online property views and values of house sales.

Findings

The result indicated the strong relationship between online property views and the values of house sales, implying the possibility of using search data from online property portals to predict housing market activities. It then explore the spatial housing demand patterns based on searches and showed a mismatch between the spatial patterns of housing search and actual moves across submarkets. The findings may not be very surprising but the main objective of the paper is to open up a potentially useful methodological approach which could be extended in future research.

Research limitations/implications

It is important to identify search patterns from people who search with the intention to buy houses and from people who search with no intention to purchase properties. Rightmove data do not adequately represent housing search activity, and therefore more attention should be paid to this issue. The analysis of housing search helps us have a better understanding of households' preferences to better estimate housing demand and develop search-based prediction models. It also helps us identify spatial and structural submarkets and examine the mismatches between current housing stock and housing demand in submarkets.

Social implications

The GIS approach in this paper may help planners and designers better allocate land resources for new housing supply based on households' spatial and structural preferences by identifying high and low demand areas with high searches relative to low housing stocks. Furthermore, the analysis of housing search patterns helps identify areas with latent demand, and when combined with the analysis of transaction patterns, it is possible to realise the areas with a lack of housing supply relative to excess demand or a lack of latent demand relative to the housing stock.

Originality/value

The paper proves the usefulness of a GIS approach to investigate households' preferences and aspirations through search data from online property portals. The contribution of the paper is the visual GIS-based approach, and based on this approach the paper fills the international knowledge gap in exploring effective approaches to analysing user-generated search data and market outcome data in combination.

Details

Open House International, vol. 48 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0168-2601

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 16 August 2019

Gaetano Lisi

The purpose of this paper is to comment upon the use of hedonic pricing models for the valuation of property. This model can be particularly useful for some housing markets.

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to comment upon the use of hedonic pricing models for the valuation of property. This model can be particularly useful for some housing markets.

Design/methodology/approach

This Education Briefing is an explanation of the how hedonic pricing can be useful in looking at the effect of “location” on the house prices within different submarkets using the Italian real estate market as an example.

Findings

Although, this case study is relatively straightforward, it shows how the application of the market approach can provide insights in cases where the comparable properties belong to different submarkets with relatively few transactions.

Practical implications

In cases of mass appraisals, hedonic pricing models can provide a broad indication of value across submarkets.

Originality/value

This paper develops a general framework that connects multiple regression analysis, direct comparison model and submarket binary variables.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 37 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 6 March 2009

Olga Filippova

This paper aims to evaluate the impact of submarkets on water view premiums of residential properties and investigate the correlation between submarket view premium and…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to evaluate the impact of submarkets on water view premiums of residential properties and investigate the correlation between submarket view premium and socio‐economic status.

Design/methodology/approach

Over 53,000 residential sales transactions from 2004 to 2006 are analysed using the hedonic method. The Auckland region is divided into 17 submarkets with similar water view scarcities. The region is analysed along with each individual submarket in order to determine if significant differences in view premiums exist.

Findings

The empirical results indicate that the regionwide model chronically over‐ or under‐estimates view premiums, for example, the regionwide model estimates that a wide water view adds 18 per cent to a home's value while the same view amenity adds only 5 per cent in modest West Harbour but 54 per cent in posh Mission Bay.

Practical implications

The study's findings can be directly applied to residential valuation practice and in particular mass appraisal systems.

Originality/value

This research fills a gap in the body of knowledge relating to water view externalities by investigating the differing price impacts across submarkets.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 2 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 9 August 2011

William J. McCluskey and Richard A. Borst

The purpose of this paper is to describe a segmentation technique based on geostatistical modeling methods utilizing geographically weighted regression (GWR) to identify submarkets

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to describe a segmentation technique based on geostatistical modeling methods utilizing geographically weighted regression (GWR) to identify submarkets which could be applied within the mass appraisal environment.

Design/methodology/approach

Given the spatial dimension within which neighbourhoods/submarkets exist, this paper has sought to utilize the geostatistical technique of GWR to identify them.

Findings

The efficacy of the procedure is established by demonstrating improvements in predictive accuracy of the resultant segmented market models as compared to a baseline global unsegmented model for each of the study areas. Optimal number of segments is obtained by measures of predictive accuracy, spatial autocorrelation in the residual errors and the Akaike information criterion.

Research limitations/implications

The three datasets used allowed for an evaluation of the robustness of the method. Nonetheless it would be beneficial to test it on other datasets, particularly from different regions of the world.

Practical implications

Many researchers and mass appraisal practitioners have established the benefit of segmenting a study area into two or more submarkets as a means of incorporating the effects of location within mass valuation models. This approach develops the existing knowledge.

Social implications

The research ultimately is developing more accurate valuation models upon which the property tax is based. This should create an environment of fair and acceptable assessed values by the tax paying community.

Originality/value

The contribution of this work lies in the methodological approach adopted which incorporates a market basket approach developed through a process of GWR. The importance of the research findings illustrate that submarket segmentation need no longer be an arbitrary process.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 4 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 2 April 2024

Omokolade Akinsomi, Mustapha Bangura and Joseph Yacim

Several studies have examined the impact of market fundamentals on house prices. However, the effect of economic sectors on housing prices is limited despite the existence of…

Abstract

Purpose

Several studies have examined the impact of market fundamentals on house prices. However, the effect of economic sectors on housing prices is limited despite the existence of two-speed economies in some countries, such as South Africa. Therefore, this study aims to examine the impact of mining activities on house prices. This intends to understand the direction of house price spreads and their duration so policymakers can provide remediation to the housing market disturbance swiftly.

Design/methodology/approach

This study investigated the effect of mining activities on house prices in South Africa, using quarterly data from 2000Q1 to 2019Q1 and deploying an auto-regressive distributed lag model.

Findings

In the short run, we found that changes in mining activities, as measured by the contribution of this sector to gross domestic product, impact the housing price of mining towns directly after the first quarter and after the second quarter in the non-mining cities. Second, we found that inflationary pressure is instantaneous and impacts house prices in mining towns only in the short run but not in the long run, while increasing housing supply will help cushion house prices in both submarkets. This study extended the analysis by examining a possible spillover in house prices between mining and non-mining towns. This study found evidence of spillover in housing prices from mining towns to non-mining towns without any reciprocity. In the long run, a mortgage lending rate and housing supply are significant, while all the explanatory variables in the non-mining towns are insignificant.

Originality/value

These results reveal that enhanced mining activities will increase housing prices in mining towns after the first quarter, which is expected to spill over to non-mining towns in the next quarter. These findings will inform housing policymakers about stabilising the housing market in mining and non-mining towns. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to measure the contribution of mining to house price spillover.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 8 March 2022

Zisheng Song, Mats Wilhelmsson and Zan Yang

This paper aims to construct rental housing indices and identify market segmentation for more effective property-management strategies.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to construct rental housing indices and identify market segmentation for more effective property-management strategies.

Design/methodology/approach

The hedonic model was employed to construct the rental indices. Using the k-means++ and REDCAP (Regionalisation with Dynamically Constrained Agglomerative Clustering and Partitioning) approaches, the authors conducted clustering analysis and identified different market segmentation. The empirical study relied on the database of 80,212 actual rental transactions in Beijing, China, spanning 2016–2018.

Findings

Rental housing market segmentation may distribute across administrative boundaries. Properly segmented indices could provide a better account for the heterogeneity and spatial continuity of rental housing and as well be crucial for effective property management.

Research limitations/implications

Residential rent might not only vary over space but also interplays with housing price. It would be worth studying how the rental market functions together with the owner-occupied sector in the future.

Practical implications

Residential rental indices are of great importance for policymakers to be able to evaluate housing policies and for property managers to implement competitive strategies in the rental market. Their constructions largely depend on the analysis of market segmentation, a trade-off between housing spatial heterogeneity and continuity.

Originality/value

This paper fills the gap in knowledge concerning segmented rental indices construction, particularly in China. The spatial constrained clustering approach (REDCAP) was also initially introduced to identify regionalised market segmentation due to its superior performance.

Details

Property Management, vol. 40 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0263-7472

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 August 2000

Mike Fletcher, Paul Gallimore and Jean Mangan

This paper is concerned as to whether it is more appropriate to use aggregate or disaggregate models in forecasting house prices using hedonic modelling. It is accepted that the…

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Abstract

This paper is concerned as to whether it is more appropriate to use aggregate or disaggregate models in forecasting house prices using hedonic modelling. It is accepted that the implicit pricing of some of the attributes is not stable between locations, property types and ages but it is argued that this can be effectively modelled with an aggregate method. The models are developed using a dataset of nearly 18,000 transactions in the UK Midlands region in 1994. The comparative performance of these models is then considered using two approaches. Chow tests of the error differences between actual price and the price predicted by the models suggest that the submarket models lead to statistically significant, though small, improvements. A second approach, using comparison of the root mean square errors, is conducted on the models’ forecasts for a 10 per cent sample of nearly 2,000 transactions excluded from the modelling process. This shows little practical difference in the forecasting ability between the two approaches. Great care needs to be taken over sample size if a disaggregate model is used.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 18 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 17 April 2023

Gary John Rangel, Jason Wei Jian Ng., Thangarajah Thiyagarajan Murugasu and Wai Ching Poon

The purpose of this study is to use a lifetime income measure to evaluate the long-run housing affordability for an understudied cohort of households in the literature – the…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to use a lifetime income measure to evaluate the long-run housing affordability for an understudied cohort of households in the literature – the millennials. The authors do this in the context of Malaysia, measuring long-run affordability for four housing types across geographic locations and income distributions.

Design/methodology/approach

This study calculates a long-run housing affordability index (HAI) using data on house prices and household incomes. Essentially a ratio of predicted lifetime incomes to house prices, the HAI is computed for four common housing types in Malaysia from 2005 to 2016 and for six states in the country. The HAI is also compared across four income percentiles.

Findings

The analysis reveals varying patterns of housing affordability among different states in Malaysia. Housing affordability has declined since 2010, with most housing types being unaffordable for millennial-led households with the lowest income. Housing is most affordable for those in the highest income bracket, although even here, there are pockets of unaffordable housing as well.

Practical implications

Based on the findings, this study proposes three targeted interventions to improve housing affordability for Malaysian millennials.

Originality/value

This study fills a gap in the literature by examining the long-run housing affordability of Malaysian millennial-led households based on both geographic location and income distribution. The millennial population is understudied in the housing affordability literature, making this study a valuable contribution to the field.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 17 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

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