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Article
Publication date: 9 April 2024

Amanda Dian Widyasti Kusumawardani and Muhammad Halley Yudhistira

The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of the Odd-Even Road Rationing Policy (RRP) on housing prices in Jakarta, Indonesia. It aims to evaluate the net effect of the…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of the Odd-Even Road Rationing Policy (RRP) on housing prices in Jakarta, Indonesia. It aims to evaluate the net effect of the RRP on housing prices.

Design/methodology/approach

The study uses the monocentric model and employs the difference-in-differences (DD) method. Annual neighborhood-level housing price data is analyzed to assess the impact of the RRP on housing prices. Additionally, propensity score matching is used to address potential biases resulting from non-random policy assignments.

Findings

The results demonstrate that houses located within the RRP-restricted area experience a decrease in price that is relative to those in the control group. The findings indicate a decrease in housing prices ranging from 7.59% to 14.7% within the RRP-restricted area. This suggests that the positive impacts resulting from the RRP have not fully compensated for the restricted accessibility experienced by individuals who have limited behavioral changes. The study also confirms the significance of commuting costs in individuals' location decisions, aligning with predictions from urban economics models.

Originality/value

This study contributes to the literature by providing insights into the effects of a RRP on housing prices. It expands understanding beyond the immediate effects on traffic conditions and air pollution, which previous studies have primarily focused on. Furthermore, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this research will be the first conducted to identify the impacts of RRP on housing prices in Indonesia.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 11 January 2024

Siti Hafsah Zulkarnain, Abdol Samad Nawi, Miguel Angel Esquivias and Anuar Husin

The purpose of this study is designed to achieve the learning process in producing studies involving economic issues and scenarios in business management in Malaysia. In addition…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is designed to achieve the learning process in producing studies involving economic issues and scenarios in business management in Malaysia. In addition, this study will provide exposure to the integration of managerial skills by using both microeconomics and macroeconomics concepts and theories to aid decision-making in a business environment.

Design/methodology/approach

The research method comprised qualitative methodology of literature review, case study and quantitative methodology of multiple linear regression (MLR). In this case, seven microeconomics and macroeconomics factors which are believed to significantly affect house price index (HPI) are taken into consideration which includes gross domestic product, consumer price index (CPI), government tax and subsidy on housing, overnight policy rate, unemployment rate (UNEMP), the median income (INC) and cost of production index.

Findings

This research has resulted in three significant factors affecting HPI from MLR, which include CPI, UNEMP and INC where the increase of these factors will cause a high increment of HPI. The other four factors are not significant.

Originality/value

Malaysia has been facing the stagnancy in house market these recent years due to issues such as massive oversupply, impacting Malaysia’s economy specifically focusing on domestic direct investment. To avoid oversupply issues, the vitality of future house demand and pricing forecast should be comprehended by involved bodies for more effective planning for the house development industry. To make a better and bigger impact, this research is intended to analyse the microeconomic and macroeconomic factors affecting the HPI to better understand the significance of each of these factors to the changes of HPI to resolve these economic issues.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 6 December 2023

Z. Göknur Büyükkara, İsmail Cem Özgüler and Ali Hepsen

The purpose of this study is to explore the intricate relationship between oil prices, house prices in the UK and Norway, and the mediating role of gold and stock prices in both…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to explore the intricate relationship between oil prices, house prices in the UK and Norway, and the mediating role of gold and stock prices in both the short- and long-term, unraveling these complex linkages by employing an empirical approach.

Design/methodology/approach

This study benefits from a comprehensive set of econometric tools, including a multiequation vector autoregressive (VAR) system, Granger causality test, impulse response function, variance decomposition and a single-equation autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) system. This rigorous approach enables to identify both short- and long-run dynamics to unravel the intricate linkages between Brent oil prices, housing prices, gold prices and stock prices in the UK and Norway over the period from 2005:Q1 to 2022:Q2.

Findings

The findings indicate that rising oil prices negatively impact house prices, whereas the positive influence of stock market performance on housing is more pronounced. A two-way causal relationship exists between stock market indices and house prices, whereas a one-way causal relationship exists from crude oil prices to house prices in both countries. The VAR model reveals that past housing prices, stock market indices in each country and Brent oil prices are the primary determinants of current housing prices. The single-equation ARDL results for housing prices demonstrate the existence of a long-run cointegrating relationship between real estate and stock prices. The variance decomposition analysis indicates that oil prices have a more pronounced impact on housing prices compared with stock prices. The findings reveal that shocks in stock markets have a greater influence on housing market prices than those in oil or gold prices. Consequently, house prices exhibit a stronger reaction to general financial market indicators than to commodity prices.

Research limitations/implications

This study may have several limitations. First, the model does not include all relevant macroeconomic variables, such as interest rates, unemployment rates and gross domestic product growth. This omission may affect the accuracy of the model’s predictions and lead to inefficiencies in the real estate market. Second, this study does not consider alternative explanations for market inefficiencies, such as behavioral finance factors, information asymmetry or market microstructure effects. Third, the models have limitations in revealing how predictors react to positive and negative shocks. Therefore, the results of this study should be interpreted with caution.

Practical implications

These findings hold significant implications for formulating dynamic policies aimed at stabilizing the housing markets of these two oil-producing nations. The practical implications of this study extend to academics, investors and policymakers, particularly in light of the volatility characterizing both housing and commodity markets. The findings reveal that shocks in stock markets have a more profound impact on housing market prices compared with those in oil or gold prices. Consequently, house prices exhibit a stronger reaction to general financial market indicators than to commodity prices.

Social implications

These findings could also serve as valuable insights for future research endeavors aimed at constructing models that link real estate market dynamics to macroeconomic indicators.

Originality/value

Using a variety of econometric approaches, this paper presents an innovative empirical analysis of the intricate relationship between euro property prices, stock prices, gold prices and oil prices in the UK and Norway from 2005:Q1 to 2022:Q2. Expanding upon the existing literature on housing market price determinants, this study delves into the role of gold and oil prices, considering their impact on industrial production and overall economic growth. This paper provides valuable policy insights for effectively managing the impact of oil price shocks on the housing market.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 25 July 2023

Trung Ba Nguyen and Chon Van Le

This paper aims to examine the dynamic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and government policy on real house price indices in five emerging economies, namely, Brazil, China…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to examine the dynamic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and government policy on real house price indices in five emerging economies, namely, Brazil, China, Thailand, Turkey and South Africa.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors use the local projection method with a panel data set of these countries spanning from January 2020 to July 2021.

Findings

The number of COVID-19 confirmed positive cases raised housing prices, whereas government containment measures reduced them. Both conventional and unconventional monetary policy implemented by central banks to cope with the COVID-19 helped increase housing prices. These effects were strengthened by the US monetary policy via globalized financial markets.

Originality/value

First, while previous researches typically concentrated on developed countries, the authors investigate emerging economies where proportionally more people were badly affected by the pandemic. Second, a panel data set of five emerging economies enabled the authors to examine the dynamic effects of the COVID-19 crisis on housing prices. Third, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study evaluating the influences of easing monetary policy on housing prices in emerging economies during the pandemic.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 27 February 2023

Farida Nurkhayati and Ardyanto Fitrady

Rural–urban migration has led to an increase in the community’s need for housing in the migration area. The demand for housing is getting higher while the land availability does…

Abstract

Purpose

Rural–urban migration has led to an increase in the community’s need for housing in the migration area. The demand for housing is getting higher while the land availability does not increase so that house prices will continue to increase. This study aims to estimate the impact of immigration on urban housing prices in Indonesia.

Design/methodology/approach

This study examines the effect of immigration on urban housing prices at the city level in Indonesia by using 14 major cities data from 2012 to 2020 to build a panel data model. The model also incorporates urban economic conditions as control variables.

Findings

From the national level, the authors find that inter-regional migration has a significant and positive impact on urban housing prices. Based on the results, this paper suggested addressing the volatility of house prices through the provision of decent and affordable housing improvement to meet the growing needs and demands of the immigrant population.

Research limitations/implications

This study still has several limitations: the sample of cities used is not comprehensive enough, and the time period used is not long enough; the spatial impact on house prices is not taken into account, and the effect of migrant characteristics in each city has not been considered.

Originality/value

There is limited research on the impact of immigration on urban housing prices in city levels, especially in the case of Indonesia. In addition, recent migration is used to proxy the immigration pattern. This paper provides a valuable contribution to the empirical literature on the effect of immigration at the city level in developing countries.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 24 January 2023

Abdulmuttalip Pilatin, Ali Hepşen and Onur Kayran

This study aims to reveal whether social capital has an effect on the housing price index in Turkey, which is a developing country. The research was carried out by using the data…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to reveal whether social capital has an effect on the housing price index in Turkey, which is a developing country. The research was carried out by using the data on the basis of 81 provinces of Turkey in a 12-year period covering the years 2007–2018.

Design/methodology/approach

The data were subjected to panel data regression analysis and the related models were tested using the Driscoll-Kraay (1998) Estimator.

Findings

According to the results of the analysis, it was understood that there is a negative and significant relationship between social capital (SC1) and the housing price index. The results were corroborated by susceptibility testing. As the level of social capital rises in the provinces in Turkey, the manipulative and opportunistic behavior tendencies of individual and corporate house sellers decrease. These results support the principal–agent theory and theory of moral hazard, which constitute the theoretical background of the study.

Originality/value

No study has been found in the literature on the effect of social capital on housing prices. This situation constitutes the main motivation source of the study and shows its originality.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 25 April 2024

Muhammad Tariq, Muhammad Azam Khan and Niaz Ali

This study aims to investigate the effect of monetary policy on housing prices for US economy. It specifically examines whether nominal or real interest rates are the key drivers…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to investigate the effect of monetary policy on housing prices for US economy. It specifically examines whether nominal or real interest rates are the key drivers behind fluctuations in housing prices in US.

Design/methodology/approach

Monthly data from January 1991 to July 2023 and various appropriate analytical tools such as unit root tests, Johansen’s cointegration test, vector error correction model (VECM), impulse response function and Granger causality test were applied for the data analysis.

Findings

The Johansen cointegration findings reveal the presence of a long-term relationship among the variables. VECM results indicate a negative correlation between nominal and real interest rates and housing prices in both the short and long terms, suggesting that a strict monetary policy can help in controlling the housing price increase in the USA. However, housing prices are more responsive to changes in nominal interest rates than to real interest rates. Additionally, the study reveals that the COVID-19 pandemic contributed to the upsurge in housing prices in the USA.

Originality/value

This study contributes by examining the role that nominal or real interest rates play in shaping housing prices in the USA. Moreover, given the recent significant upsurge in housing prices, this study presents a unique opportunity to investigate whether these price increases are influenced by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions regarding nominal or real interest rates. Additionally, using monthly data, this study provides a deeper understanding of the fluctuations in housing prices and their connection to monetary policy tools.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 30 April 2024

Madha Adi Ivantri, Muhammad Hakim Azizi, Ana Toni Roby Candra Yudha and Yudi Saputra

This paper aims to propose a new housing finance mechanism through gold price as an alternative to interest rate in Islamic home financing, especially on Bai’Bithaman Ajil (BBA…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to propose a new housing finance mechanism through gold price as an alternative to interest rate in Islamic home financing, especially on Bai’Bithaman Ajil (BBA) contract.

Design/methodology/approach

This study using simulation approach to calculate the monthly installments for home financing using gold price references. In simple terms, propose a financing formula in the BBA contract by converting the selling price of the house to the gold price, and then the monthly installments also follow the actual gold price. The authors provide an example by simulating this formula using historical data and cases of housing financing at Indonesian Islamic banks. The authors compare housing financing models based on gold prices and interest rates. Finally, The authors can compare the two housing financing models that are affordable for low-income people.

Findings

The results show that in the initial period, monthly installments of BBA based on gold price were lower than home financing based on interest rate. This result makes it possible for low-income people who cannot access financing based on interest rates to access financing based on gold price. However, the total installments of financing based on gold prices are higher than the financing model based on interest rates.

Research limitations/implications

The paper confines one contract, namely, BBA, as it is claimed to be more Shariah-compliant than others.

Practical implications

These findings suggest an alternative model for Islamic banks and regulatory authorities in Indonesia to replace the interest rate reference with the gold price in BBA contract housing financing. This model can offer competitive advantages for Islamic banks, including lower initial installments and inflation-protected profits, serving as a means of differentiating them from conventional banks.

Social implications

Gold price-based housing financing model in Islamic banks will increase the affordability of housing financing for low-income people.

Originality/value

This paper tries to solve two problems, namely, first, the problem of assuming that Islamic and conventional banks are the same, and second, the problem of housing finance affordability. This study needs to be explored.

Details

Journal of Islamic Accounting and Business Research, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1759-0817

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 2 April 2024

Omokolade Akinsomi, Mustapha Bangura and Joseph Yacim

Several studies have examined the impact of market fundamentals on house prices. However, the effect of economic sectors on housing prices is limited despite the existence of…

Abstract

Purpose

Several studies have examined the impact of market fundamentals on house prices. However, the effect of economic sectors on housing prices is limited despite the existence of two-speed economies in some countries, such as South Africa. Therefore, this study aims to examine the impact of mining activities on house prices. This intends to understand the direction of house price spreads and their duration so policymakers can provide remediation to the housing market disturbance swiftly.

Design/methodology/approach

This study investigated the effect of mining activities on house prices in South Africa, using quarterly data from 2000Q1 to 2019Q1 and deploying an auto-regressive distributed lag model.

Findings

In the short run, we found that changes in mining activities, as measured by the contribution of this sector to gross domestic product, impact the housing price of mining towns directly after the first quarter and after the second quarter in the non-mining cities. Second, we found that inflationary pressure is instantaneous and impacts house prices in mining towns only in the short run but not in the long run, while increasing housing supply will help cushion house prices in both submarkets. This study extended the analysis by examining a possible spillover in house prices between mining and non-mining towns. This study found evidence of spillover in housing prices from mining towns to non-mining towns without any reciprocity. In the long run, a mortgage lending rate and housing supply are significant, while all the explanatory variables in the non-mining towns are insignificant.

Originality/value

These results reveal that enhanced mining activities will increase housing prices in mining towns after the first quarter, which is expected to spill over to non-mining towns in the next quarter. These findings will inform housing policymakers about stabilising the housing market in mining and non-mining towns. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to measure the contribution of mining to house price spillover.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 15 April 2024

Seyed Abbas Rajaei, Afshin Mottaghi, Hussein Elhaei Sahar and Behnaz Bahadori

This study aims to investigate the spatial distribution of housing prices and identify the affecting factors (independent variable) on the cost of residential units (dependent…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to investigate the spatial distribution of housing prices and identify the affecting factors (independent variable) on the cost of residential units (dependent variable).

Design/methodology/approach

The method of the present study is descriptive-analytical and has an applied purpose. The used statistical population in this study is the residential units’ price in Tehran in 2021. For this purpose, the average per square meter of residential units in the city neighborhoods was entered in the geographical information system. Two techniques of ordinary least squares regression and geographically weighted regression have been used to analyze housing prices and modeling. Then, the results of the ordinary least squares regression and geographically weighted regression models were compared by using the housing price interpolation map predicted in each model and the accurate housing price interpolation map.

Findings

Based on the results, the ordinary least squares regression model has poorly modeled housing prices in the study area. The results of the geographically weighted regression model show that the variables (access rate to sports fields, distance from gas station and water station) have a direct and significant effect. Still, the variable (distance from fault) has a non-significant impact on increasing housing prices at a city level. In addition, to identify the affecting variables of housing prices, the results confirm the desirability of the geographically weighted regression technique in terms of accuracy compared to the ordinary least squares regression technique in explaining housing prices. The results of this study indicate that the housing prices in Tehran are affected by the access level to urban services and facilities.

Originality/value

Identifying factors affecting housing prices helps create sustainable housing in Tehran. Building sustainable housing represents spending less energy during the construction process together with the utilization phase, which ultimately provides housing at an acceptable price for all income deciles. In housing construction, the more you consider the sustainable housing principles, the more sustainable housing you provide and you take a step toward sustainable development. Therefore, sustainable housing is an important planning factor for local authorities and developers. As a result, it is necessary to institutionalize an integrated vision based on the concepts of sustainable development in the field of housing in the Tehran metropolis.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

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