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The aim of this paper is to provide a narrative review of previous research on tourism demand modelling and forecasting and potential future developments.

A narrative approach is taken in this review of the current body of knowledge.

Significant methodological advancements in tourism demand modelling and forecasting over the past two decades are identified.

The distinct characteristics of the various methods applied in the field are summarised and a research agenda for future investigations is proposed.

本文旨在对先前关于旅游需求建模和预测的研究进行叙述性回顾并对未来潜在发展进行展望。

本文采用叙述性回顾方法对当前知识体系进行了评论。

本文确认了过去二十年旅游需求建模和预测方法论方面的重要进展。

本文总结了该领域应用的各种方法的独特特征, 并对未来研究提出了建议。

El objetivo de este documento es ofrecer una revisión narrativa de la investigación previa sobre modelización y previsión de la demanda turística y los posibles desarrollos futuros.

En esta revisión del marco actual de conocimientos sobre modelización y previsión de la demanda turística y los posibles desarrollos futuros,se adopta un enfoque narrativo.

Se identifican avances metodológicos significativos en la modelización y previsión de la demanda turística en las dos últimas décadas.

Se resumen las características propias de los diversos métodos aplicados en este campo y se propone una agenda de investigación para futuros trabajos.

Prior research examining cultural effects on customer service expectations has primarily used more generic Western cultural theory on an aggregate scale or with only a single variable to draw conclusions on a customer’s underlying reasoning for buying a service. This study aims to focus on culturally distinct clusters within non-Western nations, specifically exploring within-cluster differences in service expectations within the Confucian Asia cluster.

This study developed a measurement model of Chinese cultural values and service expectations, consisting of a three and five-factor structure, respectively. Data from a sample of 351 diners were analysed using SmartPLS software. The data was compared with similar studies within the Confucian Asia cluster to understand the culture effect on service expectations and within-cluster variations.

The findings underscore the varying importance of cultural values in shaping customer service expectations, emphasizing their relative, rather than equal, significance. The study provides insights into potential within-group differences in customer service expectations within the same cultural cluster – without losing sight of the fundamental cultural heterogeneity of the Confucian culture.

Managers should leverage the distinct cultural values of their operating country to gain insights into diverse customer groups, predict their behaviours and meet their needs and expectations.

This study offers valuable insights to both service management scholars and practitioners by focusing on culturally distinct clusters of non-Western nations and exploring their effects on variation in service expectations within these clusters.

Purpose: This study examines the effect of uncertainties on the hospitality industry from different perspectives across the globe. The hospitality industry faces several contemporary issues and challenges that have the potential to impact its growth and development. This study aims to analyse the current problems and uncertainties in the hospitality sector.

Need for the Study: The hospitality industry plays a significant role in the global economy with various services, including accommodation, food and beverage, events, and tourism. However, the sector faces several contemporary issues and challenges that have the potential to impact its growth and development. This study provides an overview of the most significant problems and challenges facing the hospitality industry today.

Methodology: A systematic literature review was conducted to identify and synthesise relevant studies on the effect of uncertainties issues on the hospitality industry. A systematic search of the Web of Science and Scopus databases was conducted to determine relevant studies published between 2010 and 2021. Studies were screened and selected based on pre-defined inclusion and exclusion criteria. A thematic analysis was performed to categorise the uncertainties and issues in the hospitality industry.

Findings: The study identified several uncertainties and issues facing the hospitality industry, including the pandemic uncertainties, financial crisis, whether positive and negative impacts, terrorism attacks on hotels and tourist places, uncertainties in government policies, situational risks like uncertainties, ambiguity, cultural differences, changes in tourist preferences and changing habits of the tourist.

Emotional intelligence (EI) has a profound effect on the performance of tour guides, though past studies on the subject have neglected to examine the effects of EI on neither the overall nor specific pattern of tour guides' performance. This study examines the overall link between four dimensions of EI (self-emotion appraisal [SEA], others' emotion appraisal [OEA], use of emotions [UOEs] and regulation of emotions [ROEs]) and five dimensions of citizenship performance (helping, self-development, initiative, compliance and adaptability), ultimately identifying the relationship between EI factors and each dimension of tour guides' citizenship performance.

The data from 244 Jordanian tour guides were gathered through a quantitative survey. A confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and multiple regression analysis were performed to analyze the data.

The results reveal that emotionally intelligent tour guides are more likely to have higher levels of citizenship performance. The most significant factors in determining extra-role behaviors by tour guides are “UOEs” and “others’ emotion appraisal (OEA)”.

This study equips different professional entities in the tour guide industry with useful, contextualized links between EI and citizenship performance. This assists in developing new accreditation policies and business practices to augment tour guides' citizenship professionalism, thereby maximizing their valuable contributions to tourism growth.

This study advances the tourism studies by establishing a new theoretical link between tour guides' EI and citizenship performance. The study also uncovers unique factors of EI that significantly determine tour guides' citizenship behaviors.

This paper aims to analyze the research highlights, evolutionary process and future research directions in the field of tourism forecasting.

This study used CiteSpace to conduct a bibliometric analysis of 1,213 tourism forecasting articles.

The results show that tourism forecasting research has experienced three stages. The institutional collaboration includes transnational collaboration and domestic institutional collaboration. Collaboration between countries still needs to be strengthened. The authors’ collaboration is mainly based on on-campus collaboration. Articles with high co-citation are primarily published in core tourism journals and other relevant publications. The research content mainly pertains to tourism demand, revenue management, hotel demand and tourist volumes. Ex ante forecasting during the COVID-19 pandemic has broadened existing tourism forecasting research. The future forecasting research focuses on the rational use of big data, improving the accuracy of models and enhancing the credibility of forecasting results.

This paper uses CiteSpace to analyze tourism forecasting articles to obtain future research trends, which supplements existing research and provides directions for future research.

本文旨在分析旅游预测领域的研究重点、演化过程和未来的研究方向。

本研究使用 CiteSpace 软件对 1213 篇旅游预测文章进行了文 献计量学分析。

结果表明, 旅游预测研究经历三个阶段。机构合作包含国际机构合作和 国内机构合作, 需要持续加强国家之间的合作, 作者之间的合作多以校内合作为 主。高引用文章不仅发表在旅游领域的核心期刊还发表在其他专业的核心期刊上。 旅游预测研究的主要内容为旅游需求、收入管理、酒店需求和游客量。新冠疫情 期间的事前预测拓宽了现有的旅游预测研究。未来预测的研究重点在于合理利用 大数据, 提高模型的准确定以及提高预测结果的可信度。

本文使用 CiteSpace 分析旅游预测文章得到未来研究趋势, 既是对 现有研究的补充, 又为今后的研究提供方向。

Este artículo pretende analizar los aspectos más destacados de la investigación, el proceso evolutivo y las futuras orientaciones de la investigación en el campo de la previsión turística.

Este estudio utilizó CiteSpace para realizar un análisis bibliométrico de 1213 artículos sobre previsión turística.

Los resultados muestran que la investigación sobre previsión turística ha experimentado tres etapas. La colaboración institucional incluye la colaboración transnacional y la colaboración institucional nacional. La colaboración entre países aún debe reforzarse. La colaboración entre autores se basa principalmente en la colaboración dentro del campus. Los artículos con una alta cocitación se publican principalmente en las principales revistas de turismo y en otras publicaciones relevantes. El contenido de la investigación se refiere principalmente a la demanda turística, el revenue management, la demanda hotelera y los volúmenes turísticos. La previsión previa y durante la pandemia de la COVID-19 ha ampliado la investigación existente sobre previsión turística. La futura investigación sobre previsiones se centra en el uso racional de los big data, la mejora de la precisión de los modelos y el aumento de la credibilidad de los resultados de las previsiones.

Este artículo utiliza CiteSpace para analizar artículos de previsión turística con el fin de obtener futuras tendencias de investigación, lo que complementa la investigación existente y proporciona orientaciones para futuras investigaciones.

Recreational scuba diving is one of the fastest growing tourism industries around the world and has become a popular activity in Taiwan. Few studies focus on enduring involvement with a high risk or difficult activity specialization, so this study aims to explore the causal relationship between enduring involvement and specialization and seeks to explain sustained involvement in scuba diving activity as a recreation specialization.

This research selects four diving sites in Taiwan as survey locations, specifically Yeliou, Longdong, Kenting and Green Island. The questionnaire consists of three sections, including demographic information, enduring involvement and specialization. By analyzing the data collected from 810 scuba divers in Taiwan, structural equation modeling is used to examine the causal relationships among the variables.

The primary findings of this study are as follows: attraction positively affects divers’ commitment and lifestyle through joy, relaxation and sharing diving experiences; the results indicate that self-expression is associated with past experience of participating in scuba diving activity; and centrality indicates that participants’ daily life and recreation are related to each other and become central to their life. Results show that most theoretical hypotheses are supported, but there is no significant evidence of attraction impacting past experience or self-expression influencing commitment and lifestyle.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to examine the causal influence of enduring involvement and specialization in the scuba diving context. The findings provide a solid theoretical basis for the study of sustained involvement motivation and behavior on specialization. Implications and recommendations for future research are discussed.

休闲水肺潜水是全球发展最快的旅游业之一, 已成为台湾的热门活动。很少有研究关注持续涉入高风险或困难活动的专门化, 因此本研究探讨持续涉入和专门化之间的因果关系, 并试图解释持续参与水肺潜水活动作为休闲专门化。

这项研究选择了台湾的四个潜水地点作为调查地点, 特别是野柳, 龙洞, 垦丁和绿岛。问卷分为三个部分, 包括人口统计信息, 持续参与和专门化。通过分析从台湾810名潜水员那里收集的数据, 使用结构方程模型检查变量之间的因果关系。

这项研究的主要发现是：（1）吸引力通过愉悦, 放松和分享潜水经历积极影响潜水员的承诺和生活方式; （2）结果表明自我表达与过去参加水肺潜水活动的经历有关（3）中心性表示参与者的日常生活和娱乐彼此相关, 并成为他们生活的中心。结果表明, 大多数理论假设均得到支持, 但没有显着证据表明吸引力会影响过去的经历或自我表达影响承诺和生活方式。

据我们所知, 本研究是第一个研究在潜水环境中持续涉入和专门化的因果关系影响的研究。研究结果为专门化持续参与动机和行为的研究提供了坚实的理论基础。 讨论了对未来研究的影响和建议。

El buceo recreativo es una de las industrias turísticas de más rápido crecimiento en todo el mundo y se ha convertido en una actividad popular en Taiwán. Pocos estudios se centran en la participación duradera con una especialización de actividad difícil o de alto riesgo, por lo que este estudio explora la relación causal entre la participación duradera y la especialización y busca explicar la participación sostenida en la actividad de buceo como una especialización recreativa.

Esta investigación selecciona cuatro sitios de buceo en Taiwán como lugares de estudio, específicamente Yeliou, Longdong, Kenting y Green Island. El cuestionario consta de tres secciones, que incluyen información demográfica, participación duradera y especialización. Al analizar los datos recopilados de 810 buzos en Taiwán, se utiliza un modelo de ecuaciones estructurales para examinar las relaciones causales entre las variables.

Los hallazgos principales de este estudio son: (1) la atracción afecta positivamente el compromiso y el estilo de vida de los buceadores a través de la alegría, la relajación y el intercambio de experiencias de buceo, (2) los resultados indican que la autoexpresión está asociada con la experiencia pasada de participar en actividades de buceo., y (3) la centralidad indica que la vida diaria y la recreación de los participantes están relacionadas entre sí y se vuelven centrales en su vida. Los resultados muestran que la mayoría de las hipótesis teóricas están respaldadas, pero no hay evidencia significativa de que la atracción afecte la experiencia pasada o la autoexpresión que influya en el compromiso y el estilo de vida.

Hasta donde sabemos, este estudio es el primero en examinar la influencia causal de la participación y la especialización duraderas en el contexto del buceo. Los hallazgos proporcionan una base teórica sólida para el estudio de la motivación y el comportamiento de participación sostenida en la especialización. Se discuten las implicaciones y recomendaciones para futuras investigaciones.

This case is mainly about the development journey of Tujia, a unicorn in China's accommodations-sharing sector, as well as the development status of the sector. On December 1, 2011, Tujia.com—China's first medium- and high-end vacation apartment booking platform—was formally launched, and it announced the first round of capital injection in less than half a year after its launch. It completed D and D+ round of financing on August 3, 2015, securing $300 million with an estimated value exceeding $1 billion. The completion of this financing round meant that Tujia formally entered the $1 billion club composed of “unicorn” Internet companies. In June 2016, it announced the strategic M&A of Mayi; in October 2016, it announced its strategic agreement with Ctrip.com and Qunar.com for the M&A of their apartment and homestay businesses. The completion of these transactions manifested the matrix with the four major platforms Tujia, Mayi, Ctrip, and Qunar. Since then, Tujia has become the absolute pacesetter in China's online accommodations-sharing sector.

Sustainability is a major global concern, and research has suggested a bidirectional relationship between participatory sport events and the natural environment. Against this background, we examined the influence of runners’ environmental consciousness on their perceptions of the quality of green initiatives and their supportive intention at a running event.

We collected questionnaire responses from 496 runners at an event held in Taiwan, and we used partial least squares structural equation modeling for our measurement and structural models.

Our findings revealed that environmental consciousness had a positive relationship with green perceived quality, and that green perceived quality, in turn, positively affected supportive intention. Green perceived quality also mediated the relationship between environmental consciousness and supportive intention, and running frequency moderated the relationship between environmental consciousness and supportive intention.

Stakeholders should promote the environmental consciousness of event participants and implement sustainable initiatives to enhance participants’ supportive intention towards participatory sport events.

This study contributes to the literature by examining the role of environmental consciousness, green perceived quality and supportive intention in the context of a running event. The findings highlight the importance of environmental sustainability in participatory sport events and provide valuable insights for event organizers and stakeholders in designing and implementing sustainable initiatives.

This study aims to investigate the bright and dark sides of environmental, social and governance (ESG) during the COVID-19 pandemic, including both the outbreak and recovery periods, for the Chinese hospitality industry.

Using panel data of 564 firm-quarter observations from 2018 to 2020, the authors adopt fixed-effects regression estimation with standard errors clustered at the firm level. To address potential endogeneity concerns, the authors also use the two-stage least squares estimator with instrumental variables.

The results suggest that ESG plays different roles in market- and accounting-based performance during the COVID-19 outbreak and recovery periods. Specifically, ESG practices show a bright side as a reputation builder to mitigate the negative pandemic impact on market-based performance, whereas the dark side of ESG practices consumes firm resources to aggravate the negative pandemic impact on accounting-based performance during the coronavirus outbreak. These results also suggest hospitality companies benefit bountifully from ESG practices during the COVID-19 recovery.

ESG plays a vital role for hospitality firms by providing insurance-like protection during and after the COVID-19 outbreak. Additionally, hospitality firms should evaluate their capability to adapt resource-consuming ESG practices.

Existing hospitality COVID-19 studies have investigated the effect of ESG on firm performance within a short period with mixed results. This study extends the literature by showing the different effects of ESG practices on market- and accounting-based performance during the COVID-19 outbreak and recovery periods.