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1 – 10 of over 3000Zeljko Tekic, Andrei Parfenov and Maksim Malyy
Starting from intention–behaviour models and building upon the growing evidence that aggregated internet search query data represent a good proxy of human interests and…
Abstract
Purpose
Starting from intention–behaviour models and building upon the growing evidence that aggregated internet search query data represent a good proxy of human interests and intentions. The purpose of this study is to demonstrate that the internet search traffic information related to the selected key terms associated with establishing new businesses, reflects well the dynamics of entrepreneurial activity in a country and can be used for predicting entrepreneurial activity at the national level.
Design/methodology/approach
Theoretical framework is based on intention–behaviour models and supported by the knowledge spillover theory of entrepreneurship. Monthly data on new business registration from 2018 to 2021 is derived from the open database of the Russian Federal Tax Service. Terms of internet search interest are identified through interviews with the recent founders of new businesses, whereas the internet search query statistics on the identified terms are obtained from Google Trends and Yandex Wordstat.
Findings
The results suggest that aggregated data about web searches related to opening a new business in a country is positively correlated with the dynamics of entrepreneurial activity in the country and, as such, may be useful for predicting the level of that activity.
Practical implications
The results may serve as a starting point for a new approach to measure, monitor and predict entrepreneurial activities in a country and can help in better addressing policymaking issues related to entrepreneurship.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is original in its approach and results. Building on intention–behaviour models, this study outlines, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, the first usage of big data for analysing the intention–behaviour relationship in entrepreneurship. This study also contributes to the ongoing debate about the value of big data for entrepreneurship research by proposing and demonstrating the credibility of internet search query data as a novel source of quality data in analysing and predicting a country’s entrepreneurial activity.
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Giovanni De Luca and Monica Rosciano
The tourist industry has to adopt a big data-driven foresight approach to enhance decision-making in a post-COVID international landscape still marked by significant uncertainty…
Abstract
Purpose
The tourist industry has to adopt a big data-driven foresight approach to enhance decision-making in a post-COVID international landscape still marked by significant uncertainty and in which some megatrends have the potential to reshape society in the next decades. This paper, considering the opportunity offered by the application of the quantitative analysis on internet new data sources, proposes a prediction method using Google Trends data based on an estimated transfer function model.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper uses the time-series methods to model and predict Google Trends data. A transfer function model is used to transform the prediction of Google Trends data into predictions of tourist arrivals. It predicts the United States tourism demand in Italy.
Findings
The results highlight the potential expressed by the use of big data-driven foresight approach. Applying a transfer function model on internet search data, timely forecasts of tourism flows are obtained. The two scenarios emerged can be used in tourism stakeholders’ decision-making process. In a future perspective, the methodological path could be applied to other tourism origin markets, to other internet search engine or other socioeconomic and environmental contexts.
Originality/value
The study raises awareness of foresight literacy in the tourism sector. Secondly, it complements the research on tourism demand forecasting by evaluating the performance of quantitative forecasting techniques on new data sources. Thirdly, it is the first paper that makes the United States arrival predictions in Italy. Finally, the findings provide immediate valuable information to tourism stakeholders that could be used to make decisions.
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Evangelos Vasileiou, Elroi Hadad and Martha Oikonomou
We examine the aggregate price trend of the Greek housing market from a behavioral perspective.
Abstract
Purpose
We examine the aggregate price trend of the Greek housing market from a behavioral perspective.
Design/methodology/approach
We construct a behavioral real estate sentiment index, based on relevant real estate search terms from Google Trends and websites, and examine its association with real estate price distributions and trends. By employing EGARCH(1,1) on the New Apartments Index data from the Bank of Greece, we capture real estate price volatility and asymmetric effects resulting from changes in the real estate search index. Enhancing robustness, macroeconomic variables are added to the mean equation. Additionally, a run test assesses the efficiency of the Greek housing market.
Findings
The results show a significant relationship between the Greek housing market and our real estate sentiment index; an increase (decrease) in search activity, indicating a growing interest in the real estate market, is strongly linked to potential increases (decreases) in real estate prices. These results remain robust across various estimation procedures and control variables. These findings underscore the influential role of real estate sentiment on the Greek housing market and highlight the importance of considering behavioral factors when analyzing and predicting trends in the housing market.
Originality/value
To investigate the behavioral effect on the Greek housing market, we construct our behavioral pattern indexes using Google search-based sentiment data from Google Trends. Additionally, we incorporate the Google Trend index as an explanatory variable in the EGARCH mean equation to evaluate the influence of online search behavior on the dynamics and prices of the Greek housing market.
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Mahfooz Alam, Tariq Aziz and Valeed Ahmad Ansari
This paper aims to investigate the association of COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths with mental health, unemployment and financial markets-related search terms for the USA, the…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to investigate the association of COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths with mental health, unemployment and financial markets-related search terms for the USA, the UK, India and worldwide using Google Trends.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors use Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients to assess the relationship between relative search volumes (RSVs) and mental health, unemployment and financial markets-related search terms, with the total confirmed COVID-19 cases as well as deaths in the USA, UK, India and worldwide. The sample period starts from the day 100 cases were reported for the first time, which is 7 March 2020, 13 March 2020, 23 March 2020 and 28 January 2020 for the US, the UK, India and worldwide, respectively, and ends on 25 June 2020.
Findings
The results indicate a significant increase in anxiety, depression and stress leading to sleeping disorders or insomnia, further deteriorating mental health. The RSVs of employment are negatively significant, implying that people are hesitant to search for new jobs due to being susceptible to exposure, imposed lockdown and social distancing measures and changing employment patterns. The RSVs for financial terms exhibit the varying associations of COVID-19 cases and deaths with the stock market, loans, rent, etc.
Research limitations/implications
This study has implications for the policymakers, health experts and the government. The state governments must provide proper medical facilities and holistic care to the affected population. It may be noted that the findings of this study only lead us to conclude about the relationship between COVID-19 cases and deaths and Google Trends searches, and do not as such indicate the effect on actual behaviour.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first attempt to investigate the relationship between the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths in the USA, UK and India and at the global level and RSVs for mental health-related, job-related and financial keywords.
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Evangelos Vasileiou, Elroi Hadad and Georgios Melekos
The objective of this paper is to examine the determinants of the Greek house market during the period 2006–2022 using not only economic variables but also behavioral variables…
Abstract
Purpose
The objective of this paper is to examine the determinants of the Greek house market during the period 2006–2022 using not only economic variables but also behavioral variables, taking advantage of available information on the volume of Google searches. In order to quantify the behavioral variables, we implement a Python code using the Pytrends 4.9.2 library.
Design/methodology/approach
In our study, we assert that models relying solely on economic variables, such as GDP growth, mortgage interest rates and inflation, may lack precision compared to those that integrate behavioral indicators. Recognizing the importance of behavioral insights, we incorporate Google Trends data as a key behavioral indicator, aiming to enhance our understanding of market dynamics by capturing online interest in Greek real estate through searches related to house prices, sales and related topics. To quantify our behavioral indicators, we utilize a Python code leveraging Pytrends, enabling us to extract relevant queries for global and local searches. We employ the EGARCH(1,1) model on the Greek house price index, testing several macroeconomic variables alongside our Google Trends indexes to explain housing returns.
Findings
Our findings show that in some cases the relationship between economic variables, such as inflation and mortgage rates, and house prices is not always consistent with the theory because we should highlight the special conditions of the examined country. The country of our sample, Greece, presents the special case of a country with severe sovereign debt issues, which at the same time has the privilege to have a strong currency and the support and the obligations of being an EU/EMU member.
Practical implications
The results suggest that Google Trends can be a valuable tool for academics and practitioners in order to understand what drives house prices. However, further research should be carried out on this topic, for example, causality relationships, to gain deeper insight into the possibilities and limitations of using such tools in analyzing housing market trends.
Originality/value
This is the first paper, to the best of our knowledge, that examines the benefits of Google Trends in studying the Greek house market.
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Isuru Udayangani Hewapathirana
This study explores the pioneering approach of utilising machine learning (ML) models and integrating social media data for predicting tourist arrivals in Sri Lanka.
Abstract
Purpose
This study explores the pioneering approach of utilising machine learning (ML) models and integrating social media data for predicting tourist arrivals in Sri Lanka.
Design/methodology/approach
Two sets of experiments are performed in this research. First, the predictive accuracy of three ML models, support vector regression (SVR), random forest (RF) and artificial neural network (ANN), is compared against the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model using historical tourist arrivals as features. Subsequently, the impact of incorporating social media data from TripAdvisor and Google Trends as additional features is investigated.
Findings
The findings reveal that the ML models generally outperform the SARIMA model, particularly from 2019 to 2021, when several unexpected events occurred in Sri Lanka. When integrating social media data, the RF model performs significantly better during most years, whereas the SVR model does not exhibit significant improvement. Although adding social media data to the ANN model does not yield superior forecasts, it exhibits proficiency in capturing data trends.
Practical implications
The findings offer substantial implications for the industry's growth and resilience, allowing stakeholders to make accurate data-driven decisions to navigate the unpredictable dynamics of Sri Lanka's tourism sector.
Originality/value
This study presents the first exploration of ML models and the integration of social media data for forecasting Sri Lankan tourist arrivals, contributing to the advancement of research in this domain.
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Shutian Wang, Yan Lin, Yejin Yan and Guoqing Zhu
This study explores the direct relationship between social media user-generated content (UGC), online search traffic and offline light vehicle sales of different models.
Abstract
Purpose
This study explores the direct relationship between social media user-generated content (UGC), online search traffic and offline light vehicle sales of different models.
Design/methodology/approach
The long-run equilibrium relationship and short-run dynamic effects between the valence and volume of UGC, online search traffic and offline car sales are analyzed by applying the autoregressive distribution lag (ARDL) model.
Findings
The study found the following. (1) In the long-run relationship, the valence of online reviews on social media platforms is significantly negatively correlated with the sales of all models. However, in the short-run, the valence of online reviews has a significant positive correlation with all models in different lag periods. (2) The volume of online reviews is significantly positively correlated with the sales of all models in the long run. However, in the short run, the relationship between the volume of online reviews and the sales of lower-sales-volume cars is uncertain. There is a significant positive correlation between the volume of reviews and the sales of higher-sales-volume cars. (3) Online search traffic has a significantly negative correlation with the sales of all models in the long run. However, in the short run, there is no consistent conclusion on the relationship between online search traffic and car sales.
Originality/value
This study provides a reference for managers to use in their efforts to improve offline high-involvement product sales using online information.
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Nhung Thi Nguyen, An Tuan Nguyen and Dinh Trung Nguyen
This paper aims to examine the effects of investor sentiment on the development of the real estate corporate bond market in Vietnam.
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to examine the effects of investor sentiment on the development of the real estate corporate bond market in Vietnam.
Design/methodology/approach
The research uses an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model with quarterly data. Additionally, the study employs Google Trends search data (GVSI) related to topics such as “Real Estate” and “Corporate Bond” to construct a sentiment index.
Findings
The empirical outcomes reveal that real estate market sentiment improves the growth of the real estate corporate bond market, while stock market sentiment reduces it. Also, there is evidence of a long-run negative effect of corporate bond market sentiment on the total value of real estate bond issuance. Further empirical research evidences the short-term effect of sentiment and economic factors on corporate bond development in the real estate industry.
Research limitations/implications
Due to difficulties in collecting data, this paper has the limited sample of 54 valid quarterly observations. Moreover, the sentiment index based on Google search volume data only reflects the interest level of investors, not their attitudes.
Practical implications
These results yield important implications for policymakers in respect of strengthening the corporate bond market platform and maintaining stability in macroeconomic and monetary policies in order to promote efficient and sustainable market development.
Social implications
The study offers some suggestions for regulators and governments to improve the real estate corporate bond market.
Originality/value
This is the first quantitative study to examine the effect of sentiment factors on real estate corporate bond development in Vietnam.
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Emna Mnif, Nahed Zghidi and Anis Jarboui
The potential growth in cryptocurrencies has raised serious ethical and religious issues leading to a new investment rethinking. This paper aims to identify the influence of…
Abstract
Purpose
The potential growth in cryptocurrencies has raised serious ethical and religious issues leading to a new investment rethinking. This paper aims to identify the influence of religiosity on cryptocurrency acceptance through an extended technology acceptance model (TAM) model.
Design/methodology/approach
In the first phase, this research develops a conceptual model that extends the theory of the TAM by integrating the religiosity component. In the second phase, the proposed model is tested using search volume queries in daily frequencies from 01/01/2018 to 31/12/2022 and structural equation modeling (SEM).
Findings
The empirical results demonstrate a significant positive effect of religiosity on the intention to use cryptocurrency, the users' perceived usefulness (PU) and ease of use (PEOU). Besides, the authors note that PEOU positively influences the intention. Furthermore, religiosity indirectly affects the intention through the PEOU and positively impacts the intention through the PU. In the same way, PEOU has a considerable indirect effect on the intention through PU.
Practical implications
This study has practical and theoretical contributions by providing insights into the cryptocurrency acceptance factors. In other words, it contributes to the literature by extending TAM models. Practically, it helps managers determine factors affecting the intention to use cryptocurrencies. Therefore, they can adjust their industry according to the suitable characteristics for creating successful projects.
Social implications
Identifying the effect of religiosity on cryptocurrency users' choices and decisions has a social added value as it provides an understanding of the evolution of psychological variants.
Originality/value
The findings emphasize the importance of integrating big data to analyze users' attitudes. Besides, most studies on cryptocurrency acceptance are investigated based on one kind of religion, such as Christianity or Islam. Nevertheless, this paper integrates the effect of five types of faith on the users' intentions.
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Although the challenges associated with big data are increasing, the question of the most suitable big data analytics (BDA) platform in libraries is always significant. The…
Abstract
Purpose
Although the challenges associated with big data are increasing, the question of the most suitable big data analytics (BDA) platform in libraries is always significant. The purpose of this study is to propose a solution to this problem.
Design/methodology/approach
The current study identifies relevant literature and provides a review of big data adoption in libraries. It also presents a step-by-step guide for the development of a BDA platform using the Apache Hadoop Ecosystem. To test the system, an analysis of library big data using Apache Pig, which is a tool from the Apache Hadoop Ecosystem, was performed. It establishes the effectiveness of Apache Hadoop Ecosystem as a powerful BDA solution in libraries.
Findings
It can be inferred from the literature that libraries and librarians have not taken the possibility of big data services in libraries very seriously. Also, the literature suggests that there is no significant effort made to establish any BDA architecture in libraries. This study establishes the Apache Hadoop Ecosystem as a possible solution for delivering BDA services in libraries.
Research limitations/implications
The present work suggests adapting the idea of providing various big data services in a library by developing a BDA platform, for instance, providing assistance to the researchers in understanding the big data, cleaning and curation of big data by skilled and experienced data managers and providing the infrastructural support to store, process, manage, analyze and visualize the big data.
Practical implications
The study concludes that Apache Hadoops’ Hadoop Distributed File System and MapReduce components significantly reduce the complexities of big data storage and processing, respectively, and Apache Pig, using Pig Latin scripting language, is very efficient in processing big data and responding to queries with a quick response time.
Originality/value
According to the study, there are significantly fewer efforts made to analyze big data from libraries. Furthermore, it has been discovered that acceptance of the Apache Hadoop Ecosystem as a solution to big data problems in libraries are not widely discussed in the literature, although Apache Hadoop is regarded as one of the best frameworks for big data handling.
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