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Article
Publication date: 19 April 2024

Oguzhan Ozcelebi, Jose Perez-Montiel and Carles Manera

Might the impact of the financial stress on exchange markets be asymmetric and exposed to regime changes? Departing from the existing literature, highlighting that the domestic…

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Abstract

Purpose

Might the impact of the financial stress on exchange markets be asymmetric and exposed to regime changes? Departing from the existing literature, highlighting that the domestic and foreign financial stress in terms of money market have substantial effects on exchange market, this paper aims to investigate the impacts of the bond yield spreads of three emerging countries (Mexico, Russia, and South Korea) on their exchange market pressure indices using monthly observations for the period 2010:01–2019:12. Additionally, the paper analyses the impact of bond yield spread of the US on the exchange market pressure indices of the three mentioned emerging countries. The authors hypothesized whether the negative and positive changes in the bond yield spreads have varying effects on exchange market pressure indices.

Design/methodology/approach

To address the research question, we measure the bond yield spread of the selected countries by using the interest rate spread between 10-year and 3-month treasury bills. At the same time, the exchange market pressure index is proxied by the index introduced by Desai et al. (2017). We base the empirical analysis on nonlinear vector autoregression (VAR) models and an asymmetric quantile-based approach.

Findings

The results of the impulse response functions indicate that increases/decreases in the bond yield spreads of Mexico, Russia and South Korea raise/lower their exchange market pressure, and the effects of shocks in the bond yield spreads of the US also lead to depreciation/appreciation pressures in the local currencies of the emerging countries. The quantile connectedness analysis, which allows for the role of regimes, reveals that the weights of the domestic and foreign bond yield spread in explaining variations of exchange market pressure indices are higher when exchange market pressure indices are not in a normal regime, indicating the role of extreme development conditions in the exchange market. The quantile regression model underlines that an increase in the domestic bond yield spread leads to a rise in its exchange market pressure index during all exchange market pressure periods in Mexico, and the relevant effects are valid during periods of high exchange market pressure in Russia. Our results also show that Russia differs from Mexico and South Korea in terms of the factors influencing the demand for domestic currency, and we have demonstrated the role of domestic macroeconomic and financial conditions in surpassing the effects of US financial stress. More specifically, the impacts of the domestic and foreign financial stress vary across regimes and are asymmetric.

Originality/value

This study enriches the literature on factors affecting the exchange market pressure of emerging countries. The results have significant economic implications for policymakers, indicating that the exchange market pressure index may trigger a financial crisis and economic recession.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 17 May 2023

Ahmed Shoukry Rashad and Mahmoud Farghally

The monetary policy is an important driver of the real estate sector’s performance. The recent wave of monetary tightening in 2022 in response to the cost-of-living crisis has…

Abstract

Purpose

The monetary policy is an important driver of the real estate sector’s performance. The recent wave of monetary tightening in 2022 in response to the cost-of-living crisis has been associated with the decline in housing prices across the globe. There are two main channels through which the US monetary policy may affect the real estate market in the dollar-pegged countries: the cost of serving mortgages (financing cost) and the exchange rate channel (for example, the appreciation of the US dollar and consequently the local currency). The exchange rate channel, which involves the appreciation of the US dollar and the subsequent effect on the local currency, is particularly significant in the case of Dubai, given how international the housing market in Dubai and might be viewed as a tradable good. Using recent data, the purpose of this study to evaluate the spillover impact of the US monetary policy on the housing market performance in the dollar-pegged countries using Dubai as a case study.

Design/methodology/approach

For this purpose, this study collected unique longitudinal data on the volume of the monthly transactions of residential properties and performs a panel-data analysis using within-variation models. The changes in the interest rate policy in the USA are determined by the domestic inflation in the USA, thereby, representing an exogenous shock in the UAE.

Findings

The results are robust to different specifications and suggest that a strong negative correlation between the interest rate in the USA and the housing sector demand in Dubai. Fiscal policy measures can be taken to mitigate tighter financial conditions in case of policy misalignment.

Originality/value

Few studies have looked at the spillover impact of the global monetary conditions on the real estate market in the GCC region. This study fills this gap by exploring the impact of the US financial conditions on Dubai’s real estate, using panel data analysis.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 17 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Expert briefing
Publication date: 9 May 2024

Debt distress is related to both global financial conditions -- such as the strength of the US dollar -- and growing climate vulnerabilities. Greater attention and funding to…

Details

DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB286921

ISSN: 2633-304X

Keywords

Geographic
Topical
Open Access
Article
Publication date: 26 August 2024

Sung Suk Kim, Vina Nugroho and Liza Handoko

This study aimed to explore the determining factors for green bond markets in ASEAN plus three countries. In contrast to previous publications that primarily examined the…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aimed to explore the determining factors for green bond markets in ASEAN plus three countries. In contrast to previous publications that primarily examined the incentives for green bonds and institutional differences among economies, the analysis focused on the role of competition among sub-financial sectors in fostering the growth of green bond markets.

Design/methodology/approach

This study adopted Driscoll and Kraay fixed effect panel methods to account for country-level heterogeneity and enhance efficiency, using quarterly data from 2016 to 2022.

Findings

The findings showed that healthy competition among sub-financial sectors was crucial for the growth of green bond markets. Growth in specific sub-financial sectors such as brown corporate bond and stock markets as well as banks contributed positively to these markets. Variables related to market microstructure also had no significant impact on green bonds but macroeconomic factors did.

Practical implications

The findings suggested that governments should promote healthy competition among sub-financial sectors and implement diverse policies to ensure the sustainable growth of green bond markets.

Originality/value

This study further pioneered the importance of competition among sub-financial sectors for the development of green bond markets.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 25 April 2024

Sukran Seker

Since conducting agile strategies provides sustainable passenger satisfaction and revenue by replacing applied policies with more profitable ones rapidly, the focus of this study…

Abstract

Purpose

Since conducting agile strategies provides sustainable passenger satisfaction and revenue by replacing applied policies with more profitable ones rapidly, the focus of this study is to evaluate agile attributes for managing low-cost carriers (LCCs) operations by means of resources and competences based on dynamic capabilities built on resource-based view (RBV) theory and to achieve sustainable competitive advantage in a volatile and dynamic air transport environment. LCCs in Turkey are also evaluated in this study since the competition among LCCs is high to gain market share and they can adapt quickly to all kinds of circumstances.

Design/methodology/approach

Two well-known Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Methods (MCDM) named as the Stepwise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis (SWARA) and multi-attributive border approximation area comparison (MABAC) methods by employing Picture fuzzy sets (PiFS) are employed to determine weight of agile attributes and superiority of LCCs based on agile attributes in the market, respectively. To check the consistency and robustness of the results for the proposed approach, comparative and sensitivity analysis are performed at the end of the study.

Findings

While the ranking orders of agile attributes are Strategic Responsiveness (AG1), Financial Management (AG4), Quality (AG2), Digital integration (AG3) and Reliability (AG5), respectively, LCC2 is selected as the best agile airline company in Turkey with respect to agile attributes. SWARA and MABAC method based on PiFS is appropriate and effective method to evaluate agile attributes that has important reference value for the airline companies in aviation industry.

Practical implications

The findings of this study will support managers in the airline industry to conduct airline operations more flexibly and effectively to take sustainable competitive advantage in unexpected and dynamic environment.

Originality/value

To the author' best knowledge, this study is the first developed to identify the attributes necessary to increase agility in LCCs. Thus, as a systematic tool, a framework is developed for the implementation of agile attributes to achieve sustainable competitive advantage in the airline industry and presented a roadmap for airline managers to deal with crises and challenging situations by satisfying customer and increasing competitiveness.

Details

Management Decision, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0025-1747

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 25 April 2024

David Korsah, Godfred Amewu and Kofi Osei Achampong

This study seeks to examine the relationship between macroeconomic shock indicators, namely geopolitical risk (GPR), global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU) and financial stress…

Abstract

Purpose

This study seeks to examine the relationship between macroeconomic shock indicators, namely geopolitical risk (GPR), global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU) and financial stress (FS), and returns as well as volatilities on seven carefully selected stock markets in Africa. Specifically, the study intends to unravel the co-movement and interdependence between the respective macroeconomic shock indicators and each of the stock markets under consideration across time and frequency.

Design/methodology/approach

This study employed wavelet coherence approach to examine the strength and stability of the relationships across different time scales and frequency components, thereby providing valuable insights into specific periods and frequency ranges where the relationships are particularly pronounced.

Findings

The study found that GEPU, Financial Stress (FS) and GPR failed to induce significant influence on African stock market returns in the short term (0–4 months band), but tend to intensify in the long-term band (after 6th month). On the contrary, stock market volatilities exhibited strong coherence and interdependence with GEPU, FSI and GPR in the short-term band.

Originality/value

This study happens to be the first of its kind to comprehensively consider how the aforementioned macro-economic shock indicators impact stock markets returns and volatilities over time and frequency. Further, none of the earlier studies has attempted to examine the relationship between macro-economic shocks, stock returns and volatilities in different crisis periods. This study is the first of its kind in to employ data spanning from May 2007 to April 2023, thereby covering notable crisis periods such as global financial crisis (GFC) and the COVID-19 pandemic episodes.

Details

Journal of Humanities and Applied Social Sciences, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2632-279X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 29 August 2024

Sandeep Kumar and Amandeep Verma

The current study immerses in the realm of bank mergers among prominent PSBs in India, focusing on the financial performance of six recently merged PSBs entities. Amidst the…

Abstract

Purpose

The current study immerses in the realm of bank mergers among prominent PSBs in India, focusing on the financial performance of six recently merged PSBs entities. Amidst the global impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on economies, the study aims to uncover the efficiency of these PSBs in navigating this unprecedented crisis.

Design/methodology/approach

The evaluation encompasses panel data on an annual basis spanning from 2020 to 2023. To assess the overall efficiency of merged PSBs, the advanced statistical technique like one-step system generalized method of moments has been applied to estimate its efficiency.

Findings

The study findings affirm that PSB mergers have bolstered financial metrics and efficiency. Enhanced return on equity (ROA) and net profit margin (NPM) signify improved profitability and efficiency. The consolidation also facilitates better asset management and utilization. Moreover, merged entities benefit from economies of scale, cost efficiencies, risk diversification, technological investments, and overall performance improvements.

Practical implications

The study's policy suggestions stress ongoing consolidation efforts to boost banking sector resilience, advocating for improved efficiency, governance, and asset quality management. These steps are crucial for successful bank mergers and fostering a robust, competitive banking landscape in India.

Originality/value

This study is a novel attempt to analyze Indian bank profitability and efficiency post PSB mergers amid COVID-19 pandemic. In a developing country like India, especially in PSBs has experienced significant structural changes over the previous 7 years just before pandemic, such a study necessitates a prompt empirical investigation.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Content available
Book part
Publication date: 17 May 2024

Abstract

Details

International Trade, Economic Crisis and the Sustainable Development Goals
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83753-587-3

Graphic analysis
Publication date: 19 March 2024

The near-term risk of defaults in emerging market (EM) sovereign debt markets is easing

Details

DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-GA285940

ISSN: 2633-304X

Keywords

Geographic
Topical
Article
Publication date: 21 July 2023

Brahim Gaies and Najeh Chaâbane

This study adopts a new macro-perspective to explore the complex and dynamic links between financial instability and the Euro-American green equity market. Its primary focus and…

Abstract

Purpose

This study adopts a new macro-perspective to explore the complex and dynamic links between financial instability and the Euro-American green equity market. Its primary focus and novelty is to shed light on the non-linear and asymmetric characteristics of dependence, causality, and contagion within various time and frequency domains. Specifically, the authors scrutinize how financial instability in the U.S. and EU interacts with their respective green stock markets, while also examining the cross-impact on each other's green equity markets. The analysis is carried out over short-, medium- and long-term horizons and under different market conditions, ranging from bearish and normal to bullish.

Design/methodology/approach

This study breaks new ground by employing a model-free and non-parametric approach to examine the relationship between the instability of the global financial system and the green equity market performance in the U.S. and EU. This study's methodology offers new insights into the time- and frequency-varying relationship, using wavelet coherence supplemented with quantile causality and quantile-on-quantile regression analyses. This advanced approach unveils non-linear and asymmetric causal links and characterizes their signs, effectively distinguishing between bearish, normal, and bullish market conditions, as well as short-, medium- and long-term horizons.

Findings

This study's findings reveal that financial instability has a strong negative impact on the green stock market over the medium to long term, in bullish market conditions and in times of economic and extra-economic turbulence. This implies that green stocks cannot be an effective hedge against systemic financial risk during periods of turbulence and euphoria. Moreover, the authors demonstrate that U.S. financial instability not only affects the U.S. green equity market, but also has significant spillover effects on the EU market and vice versa, indicating the existence of a Euro-American contagion mechanism. Interestingly, this study's results also reveal a positive correlation between financial instability and green equity market performance under normal market conditions, suggesting a possible feedback loop effect.

Originality/value

This study represents pioneering work in exploring the non-linear and asymmetric connections between financial instability and the Euro-American stock markets. Notably, it discerns how these interactions vary over the short, medium, and long term and under different market conditions, including bearish, normal, and bullish states. Understanding these characteristics is instrumental in shaping effective policies to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including access to clean, affordable energy (SDG 7), and to preserve the stability of the international financial system.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 51 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

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